Daily Kos

Breaking: Venezuela-Colombia War Fears after Raid

Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 11:38:45 AM PDT

Tensions between Venezuela and Colombia have reached a new peak today as news has emerged the President Hugo Chavez has dispatched 10 brigades to the Colombian border in order to respond to any Colombian violation of Venezuelan territory.

BOGOTA (AFP) — Tensions in northwestern South America escalated sharply Sunday, with Venezuela shutting its embassy in Colombia following Bogota's cross-border raid into Ecuador that killed a top Colombian insurgent.

The raid Saturday by Colombia on a rebel jungle camp killed Raul Reyes, second-in-command of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the country's largest leftist rebel group.

Ecuador bristled after the attack that it said violated it territorial sovereignty, while its ally Venezuela on Sunday announced the shuttering of its embassy in Colombia.

"I'm ordering the immediate withdrawal of all our personnel from the embassy in Bogota," Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said.

His remarks came one day after Chavez alluded to the possibility of war if the Colombian military crosses into Venezuelan territory.

South America is on edge.  The continuing offensive of the Colombian government against FARC guerrillas has led to greatly increased tensions with Venezuela, rising commodity prices have seen increased military aquisitions, and three distinct political blocks have emerged on the continent.  I have previously written about the ongoing arms race in South America, and the potential it raised for conflict in the region.

In 2007, South America has seen a resurgence in arms purchases, and a dangerous game of power politics is developing in the region with uncertain alliances and rapidly shifting balances of power.  On one hand there are nations deeply tied to the US and the world economy like Chile and Colombia.  On the other are nations that reject US hegemony in the region, and seek a new world order in economics like Venezuela, and Bolivia.  Hanging in the balance are nations like Brazil and Argentina who currently strive to remain neutral in the fight. But the two opposing camps are in the midst of an arms buildup.

First it was Venezuela, spending $4 billion on Russian fighter planes, Kalashnikovs and perhaps even submarines. Then it was Brazil, in August announcing a 53% increase in its military budget for 2008, the biggest such increase in more than a decade. The competition is still in the early stages but when two of Latin America's nouveau riche oil powers start splashing out on weapons, alarm bells ring over an arms race.

Indeed, Chavez's spending spree has given Brazil's long-dormant arms industry a bit of a political kick-start. Says Brazilian Senator Jose Sarney, a regular critic of Venezuela's president: "Hugo Chavez's armed forces have ordered 100,000 Kalashnikov rifles, 50 attack and transport helicopters, smart bombs, 24 Sukhoi Su-30 fighter planes. There is also talk of them buying nine submarines from Russia for $3 billion. It's very worrying. As Venezuela turns itself into a major military power, it obliges the other nations in South America to increase the power of their own forces. [An arms race] sadly seems to be getting under way."

.......

What the military build-up does, however, is give Chavez's Venezuela added prestige in the continental battle for political supremacy. Chavez has brought together South America's radical leftists under his socialist banner; while Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads a more measured coalition of social democrats. The two men are friends but both countries are getting used to being at the political and economic vanguard of South America. Military strength helps with that.

Even a limited engagement between Venezuelan and Colombian armed forces could unleash forces on the continet not seen since the Second World War.  And with the US engaged in Iraq, there's little that can be done to pull the parties apart once things begin.  This would make for one hell of a start to 2008.

Tags: Venezuela, Colombia, Hugo Chavez, War (all tags) :: Previous Tag Versions

Permalink | 47 comments

  •  Sadly (19+ / 0-)

    I wasn't able to get on to the TeleSur website, so I'm getting this info from AFP (Agence France Press) which is normally fairly neutral.

    •  Does the U.S. have (2+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      RonV, Jimdotz

      any combat troops in Columbia?  I recall some talk about sending forces to help in military operations against FARC.

      •  I think that we (4+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        RonV, Boston Boomer, Wino, Fortschreitend

        have US "advisors" and contractors with the DEA.  I understand the Blackwater wanted to enter the anti-Farc campaign.  And this may have been behind their purchase of Brazlian made Embraer Super Tucano aircraft, that can be turned into a small fighter bomber.

      •  "Plan Clumbia". (6+ / 0-)

        Hereis some dated info (2004) from The Nation.

        "The United States has plowed $3.3 billion in mostly military aid into Colombia since "Plan Colombia" was passed in 2000--making it the third-greatest recipient of Washington's largesse after Israel and Egypt. Since 9/11 the focus of Plan Colombia has quietly shifted from a counternarcotics campaign to a crusade against "terrorism." And now the number of US forces on the ground is set to double.

        On October 10 Congress voted to raise the cap on US military advisers in Colombia to 800, and raise that on the number of US civilian contract agents--pilots, intelligence analysts, security personnel--from 400 to 600."

        I'll try to find some more current info.

        "I was so easy to defeat, I was so easy to control, I didn't even know there was a war." -9.75, -8.41

        by RonV on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 12:08:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Thanks for the info. n/t (2+ / 0-)

          Recommended by:
          RonV, Virginian in Spain
        •  We've (2+ / 0-)

          Recommended by:
          eugene, RonV

          been doing a lot of anti-coca spraying in the country.

          FARC is a terrorist organization, but Uribe arguably has connections with the paramilitaries.

          And paramilitaries have alledgedly been selling coke at cut rate in Caracas in order to generate gang warfare.  

        •  More current stuff... (4+ / 0-)

          here... From TomPaine.com

          PlanColumbia has all the usual hallmarks of US Imperialist meddling in Latin America. Including extra-judicial murder, corruption, and, of course, backing up US commercial interests, In this case, oil.  Does Harken Energy ring a bell?

          From the link above (November, 2004):

          "Harken Energy is the latest oil company to benefit from the United States’ escalating involvement in Colombia. On November 4, the Texas-based company announced the signing of a new oil exploration and production contract in Colombia. The company is closely linked to President George W. Bush who served on its board of directors from 1986 until 1990. In addition to providing half a billion dollars a year in Plan Colombia aid during his first term, President Bush has given Colombia almost $100 million in counterterrorism aid and deployed U.S. Army Special Forces troops to protect a major oil pipeline. The escalating U.S. military intervention in Colombia, along with International Monetary Fund (IMF)-imposed economic reforms, has created favorable conditions for foreign companies such as Harken seeking to exploit Colombia’s oil reserves.

          U.S. military aid is providing a secure environment in which U.S. oil companies can operate in Colombia. In conjunction with military aid, IMF structural adjustment programs are creating an economic environment favorable to foreign companies."

          "I was so easy to defeat, I was so easy to control, I didn't even know there was a war." -9.75, -8.41

          by RonV on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 12:23:06 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  That's what I was trying to remember -- (3+ / 0-)

            Recommended by:
            RonV, borkitekt, mango

            Special Forces being sent to guard an oil pipeline.  Wouldn't we have needed them more in Afghanistan and Iraq than to guard a pipeline?  A pretty safe bet that they found more to do.

            •  Business as usual for our Government. You (3+ / 0-)

              Recommended by:
              RonV, justCal, Fortschreitend
              have oil companies making deals with corrupt governments to get their oil resources for pennies on the dollar with all the profits going to the corrupt government officials while the citizens get poorer and poorer.

              In Colombia the rebels have been fighting against the oil companies stealing their resources. This includes attacking oil platforms and pipelines as well as capturing workers at times.

              While many think that Hugo C of Venezuela is nothing but evil, I have a hard time condemning him when our government fully supports the Major oil companies at the detriment of the citizens of a nation. Chavez very well may go to war over the situation because he is not welcoming of US continued raping of it's southern neighbors.

              We need to learn to treat our neighbors on a fair basis and make our dealings in a way that benefits the citizens and then there would be no angry rebels trying to defend their own rights to share in the resources of their nation.

              Peace
              :)

              June 3rd 2008 America is at last started on the road to long awaited recovery

              by eaglecries on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 02:08:58 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Here comes oil at $150 a barrel (3+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      RonV, opinionated, Jimdotz

      I can only imagine what the pain-at-the-pump would be if a real war broke out and interrupted the flow of Venezuelan oil.

      I sure hope this turns out to be nothing more than sabre-rattling, for a whole bunch of reasons.

      I guess the Iraq debacle might actually have one minor benefit - if it keeps us out of some military engagement in South America.  (I know, big "if" there...)

    •  "Brigades" or "batallions"? (0+ / 0-)

      There must be a huge difference betwen them two.

      •  depending on the system you use (0+ / 0-)

        battalion = 600-800 soldiers

        Brigade = 2000-5000 soldiers

        Usually a brigade is made up of several Battalions.

        Venezuela deployed supposedly 10 battalions of troops, probably so Chavez can thump his chest and get his troops on camera protecting the 'integrity' of Venezuela.

        So 6-8 thousand troops.

        I am curious though, would these be troops deployed from other areas of the country or troops already there as a bluff?

  •  Cheney/Bush must be egging Columbia on (5+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    RonV, opinionated, pgm 01, Jimdotz, daliscar

    I've was in Equador close to the Colombian border 6 years ago.

    McCain's occupation plan will achieve victory when it bestows liberty to the freedom loving people of Iraq and their freedom loving oil.

    by Lefty Coaster on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 11:48:13 AM PDT

    •  The interesting thing is how the different (3+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      RonV, opinionated, Jimdotz

      countries on the continent align themselves in the event of war.

      Ecuador's president Rafael Correa, is a Chavez ally.  Uribe, the Colombian president is a right winger, who gets no love from most of the continent.  Ecuador has border issues with Peru, and Peru's President Alan Garcia is a moderate that defeated Ollanta Humala, a Chavez ally in 2006.  As recently as 1996, Peru and Ecuador went to war over territorial disputes.  Does Peru sit out, or side with the Colombians?

      And so it starts to spin out of control.

      •  It sounds like Europe pre-WW1... (1+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        RonV

        Any ArchDukes in South America?

        Barack Obama -- The President we were promised as kids!

        by Jimdotz on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 11:57:12 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Exactly (2+ / 0-)

          Recommended by:
          RonV, Jimdotz

          like Europe before WWI, and the world's been ignoring this.  There aren't strict alliances though, so there's less danger.  Nonetheless, the past couple of years have seen rapid escalaltions in military purchases by the Chilean and Venezuelan militaries.  And Venezuela and Colombia nearly went to war in 2002 or 2003 over Colombian actions in Venezuela.

      •  By the way (2+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        RonV, Jimdotz

        Peru and Chile have also had various border issues (this one focusing on sea border lines.) Chilean president Michelle Bachelet is a left winger, so she might get involved in Peru does so.

        •  Bachelet (4+ / 0-)

          Recommended by:
          eugene, RonV, Michiganliberal, Jimdotz

          is not, repeat not, a left winger.  I would expect her to back up the Colombians in a pinch.  If she tried to back up Chavez, she'd probably face a military coup.  There have already been issues with Chilean military leaders meeting behind her back, and it sort of looks like the type of planning that went on before the Galaxia coup plot in 1981 Spain.

          •  Sorry (3+ / 0-)

            Recommended by:
            RonV, ManfromMiddletown, Jimdotz

            I don't know much about South America, other than what little I've read from the newspaper/online

            •  It's a common misconception (4+ / 0-)

              Recommended by:
              eugene, RonV, Michiganliberal, Jimdotz

              and it's important becuse there are basically three factions on the continent.

              Left Wing-Chavez (Venzuela), Morales (Bolivia), Correa (Ecuador), Argentina ? (Kirchner, she supposedly got hundreds of thousands in campaign funds from Chavez, but Argentina rides the straddle between the Left and Center groupings.)

              Center-Lula (Brazil), Bachelet (Chile), Vazquez (Uruguay, similiar to Argentina), Garcia (Peru)

              Right- Uribe (Colombia), and Paraguay.

              In the worst case scenario, pressure from the Bolivians would force the Chileans in an alliance with the Colombians, and possibly Peruvians.  Argentina and Brazil would probably set it out, but Argentina might enter if the Chavez led bloc starts to win.

              •  I sort of agree (3+ / 0-)

                As a Chilean-American,
                Chilean interests are very peculiar... our mentality as a nation has changed in the last two decades.

                The only way that Chile enters this dispute would be if either Perú or Bolivia took sides, specially if Bolivia goes and backs Venezuela. Chile will never support Chávez our left is much more centrist than most of the left in SoAm (I could say the same of Brasil).

                I don't see Argentina taking sides, Malvinas is still fresh in their minds.

                Spider Pig For President

                by El Mito on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 12:44:21 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Do you take the (1+ / 0-)

                  Recommended by:
                  Jimdotz

                  Maletagate accusations against Cristina Fernandez (Kirchner) seriously?  I'm unclear just how much influence the Venezuleans have with Buenos Aires.  On one hand, Argentina seems in full rebellion against the Washington Consensus.  On the other, they seem to want a middle path like Lula in Brazil.

                  I think that the reall issue is that there's been this massive military build up on the continent fueled by two income sources. Oil though PDVSA in Venezuela.  And through the revenues from the Atacama copper mine in northern Chile.  Military revenue from that mine exploded from around $100 million in 1999 to around $1.2 billion in 2006 according to a 2007 article in Clarin.

                  •  Atacama - Chuquicamata - CODELCO (3+ / 0-)

                    Yes,
                    After Pinochet and the nationalization of the copper mines, by law a fixed % of any surplus from copper revenues goes to the Armed Forces, lately that is A LOT. Since Chile's economy has done pretty well there has not been a political reason to push to reform that law and with all the border issues with Bolivia (path to coastline) and Perú (northern ocean limits) there is a nationalistic push to be armed and ready.

                    President Fernandez (thankfully latinamerican women don't loose their last name when married) is probably going to get tempted by Chávez's oil to stay neutral but at the end I think Mercosur will be have more leverage with this being a test on its implementation as a possible alliance that can go beyond economics.

                    Spider Pig For President

                    by El Mito on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 01:18:30 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

          •  How does the rest of South America look (2+ / 0-)

            Recommended by:
            RonV, Jimdotz

            politically speaking? I think that Morales (Bolivia) and Lula (Brazil) are left-wing presidents friendly to Chavez, but don't remember too much about Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay.

  •  my bet (8+ / 0-)

    I'd say the CIA is up to it's neck in all this shit, too many of the players are on their payroll and they're looking for ways to take Hugo out and stop the socialist revolution.

  •  Chavez (2+ / 0-)

    is not a good guy.

    Even if he does hate Bush.

    I hope we on the American left aren't going to go too far with the "enemy of my enemy is my friend" line of thought....

  •  This Is What Not Talking To Our So Called Enemies (3+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    RonV, justCal, Wino

    Does to our country. Now Here Comes The $200 barrel of oil.

    If George Bush Had Been Engaged In Latin America This Would Not Be Happening.

    That Is Why We Need A President That Will Not Build A Cocoon And Live In It. But Is Willing To Engage The World And Try To Solve Problems Using Strong Diplomacy.

    McCain/(Hagee+Parsley) '08 "We Hunt Jews and Muslims So You Dont Have To. Straight Talk"

    by DFutureIsNow on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 12:08:39 PM PDT

  •  This is clearly outside meddling (5+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    RonV, wu ming, opinionated, eaglecries, mango

    I wonder who could be behind this?

    Gee?

    Gosh?

    Remember the Iran-Iraq war? Same thing.

    CBS, the new "Memory Hole" Ask McCain, "Where's Sattar?"!

    by Paul Goodman on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 12:10:56 PM PDT

  •  Mark Penn's firm's got contracts w Colombia. (2+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    RonV, wu ming

    as does the Clintonite Glover Park Group.
    http://www.thenation.com/...

    Running against Herb "WIRETAP" Kohl in 2012. $1/year. Cash preferred.
    Masel4Senate 1214 E. Mifflin, Madison, WI 53703

    by ben masel on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 01:04:04 PM PDT

  •  hopefully the center-left countries (1+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    RonV

    have the good sense to stay the hell out of any conflict, and contain whatever conflict - if any - erupts.

    i'm surprised that this hasn't happened sooner, honestly, given the amount of weapons and money we've thrown at columbia over the past couple of decades.

    surf putah, your friendly neighborhood central valley samizdat

    by wu ming on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 01:58:04 PM PDT

  •  I started to read all of these comments... (1+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    Cletus from Canuckistan

    ...but I soon stopped, because they're largely irrelevant.  The bottom line is that Venezuela has cast its lot with a guerrilla movement that seeks the overthrow of the Colombian government, and that's not going to fly internationally, even among countries more sympathetic to Chavez's leftist populism than to Uribe's rightist whatever-it-is.  War between Venezuela and Colombia would do a lot more damage to Venezuela than to Colombia, both militarily (Colombians are used to the dislocations of war, unfortunately) and diplomatically. The Cubans, including the two Castros, have Chavez's ear and I'm sure they are telling him that crazy words are fine (Fidel should know!) but crazy deeds aren't.

    -5.38/-3.74 I've suffered for my country. Now it's your turn! --John McCain with apologies to Monty Python's "Protest Song"

    by Rich in PA on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 04:10:36 PM PDT

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