To win without the big swinging three

It's time to start thinking very carefully about strategies for the general with Obama vs. McCain and to just forget Hillary. (She'd make a great running mate for McCain, but otherwise I don't think it will happen.)

Can Obama win without the "big swinging three": PA, OH and FL?

As a resident of Pennsylvania whose mother is from Ohio I feel I know these two states at a gut level. And after so many indications of white fear gripping voters in Ohio and rural Pennsylvania, and with possibly little support from the Latino vote in Florida, Obama's chances of winning the big swinging three from McCain seem to me hardly reliable. After the depressing electoral shenanigans in Ohio and Florida in 2004 can we even rely on those states to turn blue even if Obama wins there? Is the impoverishment and concomitant dumbing down of OH and PA so advanced that voters in these states have no choice but to join their southern cousins in the illusion that McCain will do anything for them? Has the nation’s demographics made a new shift? Suppose the answer is yes.

Then an important question really is: can Obama win even without OH, PA and FL?

Yes! But the balance is ever so delicate! Here is one scenario.

Obama wins:

1. West Coast

2. New England (is NH safe?)

3. Mid-Atlantic except PA and WV;

4. Upper Midwest: MN, WI, MI.

Now the must-adds:  

5. Virginia. They told us in 2004 that Virginia could be a swing state. Damned if I would ever believe it, but look at how the world changes. Educated Beltway elites and African Americans could trump the good ol' boys of the interior; but much depends on the exurbanite sprawl spreading from DC all the way to the WV border. This vast swathe of lawyers and soccer moms may be coming to its senses.

6. Iowa. Obama is showing strong here. Can progressive voices emanating from Iowa City and Des Moines shout loud enough?

7. Colorado. Ditto. Some ties in the polls.

8. Nevada. Who knew?

9. New Mexico (with Richardson on the bandwagon we stand a chance).

That makes 270.

But one false move and we're dead.

•  If the Dem. convention...

  ...in Denver is a '68 repeat, Obama would probably not carry the state.

  by carver on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 08:38:39 AM PDT

•  Looks like he has to win a lot of states

  to make up for losing those three.

  And I think, given his position on the MI re-vote, it is premature to think he can win that state.

  by Angry Mouse on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 08:50:11 AM PDT

  •  agreed

    Michigan is looking dicey as of now. I'm hoping things will stabilize in a positive way soon.

    by rilkas on Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 08:54:47 AM PDT