Hillary Is Broke Again: The End Is Near
Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 11:35:00 PM PDT
On Friday, the candidates had to report their receipts for last month. Obama has $30 million in primary cash in hand on February 29, 2008. Clinton's primary cash on hand was only $3 million. (She had over $20 million in general election cash that she can only spend if she is the party's nominee and must otherwise return). Here is the link.
Now, Hillary was broke before (after Super Tueday) and she managed to raise enough cash to compete in Ohio and Texas so why does it matter that Hillary is broke again. The narrative is very different now and that change could spell the end of her campaign sooner than the MSM will let you believe: May 7, 2008.
As you may recall, when Hillary reported she was broke after Super Tuesday, the media was depicting the race as a dead heat. Given a dead heat race, Hillary was able to raise a significant amount of money in February. That is understandable.
However, we later learned that one consequence of Hillary being broke as of Super Tuesday was that she did not have the money to spent to set up the 11 contests after Super Tuesday. For example, Obama outspent Hillary 5 to 1 in Wisconsin's February 19 primary. Hillary lost these 11 contests, in part, due to money and these losses put her on the brink of elimination. Although Hillary was able to gain popular vote wins in Ohio and Texas (yeah, I know she lost the delegate race in Texas), she finds herself once more in difficult finanical straits. This second cash shortage will not be as easily fixed as the first.
The media is slowly shifting the narrative of the race. Friday, Politico reported that the Camp Clinton thinks it has less than a 10% chance of winning. The fact that the MSM is starting to report that Hillary's camp is not optmistic about its chance of winning is going to have serious and dire efforts on Hillary's efforts to raise money. Oh, and the fact that she is broke again is going to intensive the narrative that she cannot win.
It is no secret in politics that money dries up for losers. Even worst for Hillary, her most ardent financial supporters have already maxed out. So, her bundlers have to go after less committed people. Obviously, less committed people will be far less eager to give $2300 when her campaign is on death watch.
And while Hillary has had success with online donating as of late. Obviously, supporters of more modest means are going to be hestiate to give money to a losing campaign.
And given that the fact that even the Clintons themselves know they are long shot, how eager will Bill and Hillary be to throw in another $5 million?
Obama, a month before the Pennsylvania primary, is already up on air in the state with three ads in all six major media markets. Hillary has not aired any ads yet. I bet that he outspends Hillary again by a margin of two to one (as he did in Ohio and Texas). And while this may not buy victory, it may well cut her margin (and her delegate gain substantially). Even some pro-Obama supporters have been talking about a Hillary delegate gain in Pennsylvania in the mid 20s. What if she is outspent and she (as in Ohio) only gets a modest gain of 10 or so delegates.
And because Obama has more resources he can spent earlier and more heavily in Indiana and North Carolina where he is very competitive. He may well be able to extend his delegate lead by winning these two May 6th contests. If after May 6, 2008, Obama lead is greater than the 168 pledged delegate lead he has now, the pressure on Hillary to withdraw will be great.
Admittedly, no candidate for President ever really wants to quit. Generally, they drop out when they run out of money and they know they cannot win without paid media. Hillary could go broke in the run-up to Pennsylvania's April 22nd primary. And if her money problems cause her to win only modestly in Pennsylvania, then she end up broke in the run up to Indiana and North Carolina because she cannot raise new funds. Again, who is going to give money to a campaign on its last legs. I bet Obama will try to outspend her 3 or 4 to one in these two states to knock her out. And this time, I think he will be successful.
Mark Penn says they are in it to the convention. I think Hillary's money problems give Obama a chance to knock her down and out for good on May 6th.
Finally, if you support Obama as I do, give as much as you can now. Every dollar matters. A finanical advantage becomes a paid media advantage; a paid media advantage becomes a pledged delegate advantage. And a large finanical advantage is also going to reinforce the "it over narrative" and that narrative will only further depress Hillary's fundraising and increase superdelegate movement to Obama. And if Obama can increase his pleadged delegate by the end of the May 6th contest, superdelegates will likely push Hillary out by going to Obama en masse if she will not drop out. You, my readers, can help force Hillary out, and it starts by clicking a buttom on his website and giving another $5.01 to Obama. And enough people do this, Hillary could suspend her campaign as earlier as May 7, 2008.
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