PA Primary map scaled to number of delegates

As explained here the delegates to the PA Democratic primary are apportioned by districts with the number of delegates allotted depending on the number of registered Democrats in the district (at the time of apportionment, unfortunately not including the many newly registered voters).

This means that the number of delegates per district varies considerably, ranging from 9 for district 2 (Philadelphia west) and to a mere 3 for the district 9 ("Altoona").

Because the geographic size of a district has nothing to do with its number of delegates an ordinary map can be deceptive. We are all familiar with the vast expanse of red states in the middle of the US whose collective voice hardly totals that of California and New York alone. For this reason I thought it would be useful to see a map with each district's size scaled to its number of delegates.

So here we have it.

The technical name for a map of this type is a cartogram. The simplest type of cartogram (shown here) is a "rectangular volume area" cartogram where little attempt is made to preserve the actual shapes of the districts. Since the data is fairly discrete (between 3-9 delegates per district) I've chosen simply to show each district with a certain number of squares where each square is one delegate. For example district 9 ("Altoona") is the size of three squares, so it has 3 delegates.

If two districts share a border geographically, they touch on this cartogram (it is a "contiguous" map). The positions of the districts are roughly correct geographically except for the position of Pittsburgh in the upper left corner.

Using special software, fancy cartograms can be produced that look prettier than this one, so if anyone knows how to make one I would be pleased to see it.

It's clear that much of the delegate count is concentrated in the southeast portion of the state. Philadelphia and adjacent districts, plus districts 8, 15, 16, 17, 19 (essentially Bucks Co. to the north, and the districts containing York, Lancaster, Harrisburg and Allentown) comprise about 60% of the delegates but cover less than 25% of the actual area of the state.

There has been some discussion of where Obama will be campaigning in PA during the upcoming bus tour. This map may help to clarify what is at stake where.

•  Which ones can Obama run up the score in?

  by David Kroning on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 04:36:49 PM PDT

  •  The insignificant ones, silly!

    by pat208 on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 04:41:52 PM PDT

  •  Only 1 and 2

    by IhateBush on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 04:42:54 PM PDT

    •  Why not 14?

      by David Kroning on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 04:44:26 PM PDT

      •  It is a 50/50 district

        If Obama wins it, he does barely.  It is 21% black.

        by IhateBush on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 05:07:51 PM PDT

  •  anyone have access to

    polling data at the district level?

    I suspect it isn't free ...

    by rilkas on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 04:45:51 PM PDT

  •  Big wins and small losses

    Obama clearly has more to gain in delegate-rich districts but he should be careful to not overlook rural areas where he's trailing, particularly those with four or more delegates. The smallest district, #9 (Altoona), is almost sure to earn a 2-1 edge for the winner. In districts 5, 10, 16, 17, and 19, the loser only needs 37.5% of the vote to ensure a 2-2 draw. The only other even-numbered district is #6 (Reading), where the runner-up needs to top 41.7% to split the delegates. The biggest challenge is going to be stemming the damage in the many odd-numbered districts. If he gets routed with less than 30% in a district with 5 delegates (3, 4, 12, 12, 15), Clinton nets three delegates; Anything between 30% and 70% is a 3-2 split either way.

    With 9 delegates, the 2nd district in Philadelphia can reward him the most dramatically, but with more precise proportions, there are smaller rounding-up bonuses. The remaining delegate-rich districts (1, 7, 8, 13, 14) have seven delegates apiece. The thresholds needed to gain delegates in each size district are below:
    All districts require the familiar 15% to gain the first delegate...
    THREE
    2-1 50%
    FOUR
    2-2 37.5%
    3-1 62.5%
    FIVE
    2-3 30%
    3-2 50%
    SIX
    2-4 25%
    3-3 41.7%
    4-2 58.3%
    SEVEN
    2-5 21.5%
    for each additional 14.3% he nets two delegates
    ie 5-2 64.4%
    NINE
    2-7 16.7%
    for each additional 11.1% he nets two delegates
    ie 6-3 61.1%

    by wmdrpa on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 05:48:47 PM PDT

•  Rilkas, give us a tip jar.

  Great effort. Recommended.

  by Bugsby on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 04:39:33 PM PDT

•  Has anyone mentioned that

  Hillary failed to file a full slate of delegates to begin with? I believe she is about 10 short.

  by RandySF on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 04:40:13 PM PDT

  •  in PA?

    by Hope Monger on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 04:40:59 PM PDT

    •  Yep

      by RandySF on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 04:41:15 PM PDT

      •  think the media will mention it?

        I hope that is all Keith mentions during the returns.

        Wouldn't it be funny if Obama won by 1-9 delegates?

        That would be priceless.

        by jalapeno on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 04:42:20 PM PDT

        •  But Hillary gave Obama's delegates permission

          to support her, so all is well...at least as far as she's concerned.

          by darthstar on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 04:43:25 PM PDT

    •  yep.

      you should be able to search the diaries.

      Rendell even extended the deadline for her too.

      by jalapeno on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 04:41:32 PM PDT

  •  I know that's true on the 9th

    There are only two people I know of in the 9th who got the sinatures they needed..She's supposed to have 3.

    by DvilleDem on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 04:52:52 PM PDT

  •  Yes, again Ready to lead...

    But she can fill in those that are her share if she wins them.  Just another example of her leadership and experience..

    by Losty on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 05:52:59 PM PDT

•  tip jar

  My second diary, folks ... thanks

  by rilkas on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 04:40:20 PM PDT

  •  Would you be willing to add

    the number of delegates represented by each area, maybe in brackets or something?

    I'm probably more than a little dense when it comes to these things, but I know it would make it clearer to me.  Thanks!

    by Bugsby on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 04:50:54 PM PDT

    •  ok ...

      I'll try to add that later ... I have to leave now.

      Would like to also like to try other versions showing demographic variables that might be useful to see.

      Thanks

      by rilkas on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 04:53:45 PM PDT

      •  Great, I'll watch for more from you.

        I'm eager for news from PA and appreciate your work.

        by Bugsby on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 04:56:03 PM PDT

        •  Yes, it took me a little while...

          ...to figure out what it was showing. The explanation about the squares helped, but it is not immediately clear how many squares some of the bigger districts contain.

          But I think it is pretty clear, once you study it a bit. And it is well worth the effort!

          Thanks for this. Wish I had seen maps (er, cartograms) like this for all the major states of this contest.

          Good work. I'll subscribe and recommend.

          by Shalev on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 05:05:54 PM PDT

  •  Nice. I like posts with a fresh/creative spin

    Welcome. I'm fairly new here myself.  In your picture, I don't see the delegate-sized "squares", though we can definitely get a quick idea of where they're concentrated. Do you have the original picture posted somewhere that shows the individual squares, or perhaps you can include the raw data with the district-to-delegate count (?)

    by ayjaymay on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 04:54:12 PM PDT

  •  Great job

    This definitely adds useful perspective.  

    I'm bookmarking this for the general, too.

    by red clay dem on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 05:32:34 PM PDT

•  Editorial endorsements in PA

  Wish we had a list of the endorsements made by the press in PA -- how is it shaping up on the editorial page for Obama vs Clinton vs McCain, especially in the small town papers?

  by Bugsby on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 04:44:21 PM PDT

  •  Promiscuity causes STD's

    At least that was the editorial in the Reading Eagle the day after Obama's landmark race speech.  So it's been mostly crickets here in Berks County.

    But of course our paper supports both kinds of right-wing drivel:  O'Reilly and Malkin.  Or is that the same kind?

    Oh wait, it was in Monday:

    Could Wright cost Obama the election?

    The Issue: In response to the racial rantings of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Barack Obama’s minister, Obama delivers a speech condemning the remarks but embracing Wright.

    Our Opinion: By all accounts the speech was excellent, but the issue lingers, and it could have an impact on the nomination, even though it shouldn’t.

    and it ends with:

    It would be ironic if Wright’s rantings result in Obama losing the Democratic presidential nomination. After all Obama has built his campaign on a theme of racial harmony. But there is little doubt Wright will have an impact.

    But in the end, Wright is not running for the White House. Obama is, and he should be judged on his own statements, not those of his minister, no matter how close their relationship.

    Yup, both kinds...

    by Red no more on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 04:52:48 PM PDT

•  Its The Delegates, Stupid

  Am I over-reading this, or does Obama have a chance to come close or even tie Hillary in Pa. delegate totals like he did in Texas, New Hampshire and Nevada?  If so, the Fat lady will be singing on April 23.

  by Doctor Who on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 04:48:26 PM PDT

•  Delegate math

  According to Al Giordano at The Field(dated Mar 12). I'm sure he will update these data before the elecion, but here is how he saw it a couple of weeks ago. It's the delegates. Read the full report for some good insight into every district in PA.

  The Field – six weeks out – predicts the following outcomes (which will not change beyond a delegate or two if Clinton posts anywhere from 55 to 60 percent of the vote):

  CD 1: Clinton 3, Obama 4 (+1 Obama)
  CD 2: Clinton 3, Obama 6 (+3 Obama)
  CD 3: Clinton 4, Obama 1 (+3 Clinton)
  CD 4: Clinton 4, Obama 1 (+3 Clinton)
  CD 5: Clinton 3, Obama 1 (+2 Clinton)
  CD 6: Clinton 3, Obama 3 (+0)
  CD 7: Clinton 3, Obama 4 (+1 Obama)
  CD 8: Clinton 3, Obama 4 (+1 Obama)
  CD 9: Clinton 2, Obama 1 (+1 Clinton)
  CD 10: Clinton 3, Obama 1 (+2 Clinton)
  CD 11: Clinton 4, Obama 1 (+3 Clinton)
  CD 12: Clinton 4, Obama 1 (+3 Clinton)
  CD 13: Clinton 3, Obama 4 (+1 Obama)
  CD 14: Clinton 4, Obama 3 (+1 Clinton)
  CD 15: Clinton 3, Obama 2 (+1 Clinton)
  CD 16: Clinton 2, Obama 2 (+0)
  CD 17: Clinton 2, Obama 2 (+0)
  CD 18: Clinton 4, Obama 1 (+3 Clinton)
  CD 19: Clinton 2, Obama 2 (+0)

  Subtotal of pledged delegates by Congressional district:

  Clinton 59, Obama 44 (+15 Clinton)

  Total projected district and statewide delegates:

  Clinton: 92 pledged delegates
  Obama: 66

  That will be a net gain of +26 delegates.

  by greenchiledem on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 04:57:39 PM PDT

  •  so if she is 10 delegates short

    does that mean a potential gain of 16?

    by jalapeno on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 04:59:42 PM PDT

    •  The delegates would have to be short

      in the same district (i.e.: if she fields three delegate candidates in a district with four total delegates, it doesn't matter much since Obama would get at least one delegate ANYWAY as long as he got 15%) It is unlikely she would actually end up needing those "missing" delegate candidates.

      by PBJ Diddy on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 05:04:39 PM PDT

    •  Yes.

      The final number (+26) is all pledged delegates (158) including the PLEO's and At Large. The district total del count is 103.

      by greenchiledem on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 05:26:53 PM PDT

•  Obama Please stop in CD 7 we need you

  Yes we may appear blue but thats new since 2006 and we got that stupid sestak who sold his soul to the DNC machine politics and republican machine and our government isn't totally dem or repub but its controlled by players who play ping pong politics with its voters for eons. They think most voters are dumb and many are and take sides (repub / dem) while the players jerk us all around with high taxes and cost of living for the poor and middle class, while the few upper middle class laugh at us, all the way to the bank

  by TruthNotOpinions on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 05:03:46 PM PDT

  •  My grandparents live in that district

    They volunteered for Sestak but are disappointed that he endorsed Clinton.

    by democrattotheend on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 07:07:43 AM PDT

•  Clinton has HUGE advantage from this system

  A lot of the districts in central and western PA are districts that have more registered Democrats than Republicans but voted for Bush in 2004 by decent margins. Kerry did well in several districts outside Philly with majority Republican registration. If previous demographic trends hold, the Clinton-Obama map will look pretty similar to the Bush-Kerry map, with Clinton winning the Reagan Democrats who have been registered as Democrats but don't vote that way, and that gives Clinton a big advantage in terms of the delegate allotment.

  by democrattotheend on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 07:06:46 AM PDT