Forget about Hillary quiting. It's SuperD time.
Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 10:25:40 PM PDT
There have been repeated calls for Hillary to quit. The math is irrefutable. She can only win by kneecapping Obama. Tanya Haring option. You know the drill.
However, as much as I understand the motivation behind this argument, it really doesn't make a whole lot of sense strategically. For one thing, it's pretty much pissing in the ocean. If one accepts the proposition that Hillary will do anything to win, then in what sense is it likely that calling on her to quit for the good of the party will fall on ears that are listening? Of course she's not going to quit. She's not going to give up this nomination fight if there is a 1% chance of her winning.
And rhetorically speaking, the Clinton camp is quite certain that they are tied and that the race is wide open. I've seen that narrative emphasized repeatedly by numerous Clinton surrogates. It seems to me though, that even if you ACCEPT the argument, that "the race is tied," then it makes it even more logical that the Supers should vote now.
Right now.
Below the fold my brief analysis of the relevant propositions and how they fit into the argument I think we should all be making.
Let’s accept the following propositions:
- The race for the Democratic nomination in it's current form is highly polarizing and is doing damage to the Democratic Party as well as both candidates (and their chances in November).
- The race is essentially tied at this point. (I know that people will find this ludicrous but for the moment let's accept the proposition).
- Based on current polling data, and estimated delegate counts resulting from that data, there is no reason to think that the current "tie" will be changed by the upcoming contests.
So if one accepts the above propositions, then the question presents itself: what possible reason can there be for superdelegates not to decide now?
Every day that goes on like this McCain gets a pass. Every day that goes on like this both of our nominees bloody each other. Where is the reward for all this risk? What possible benefit is there in allowing this to continue? There is no danger in accepting the "tie" meme, because if the tie meme is embraced, one actually accentuates how unnecessary it is to complete the upcoming contests.
If the current contest is a tie, and will still be a tie in 3 months then superdelegates will be breaking the tie no matter what.
But wait! It's not a tie; Obama is ahead by every measure! Except that this fact doesn't need to be emphasized because it's so bloody obvious. Super delegates are deeply involved in the political process. They know damn well who is ahead at the moment.
From a tactical standpoint the goal of Clinton supporters is to drag this out so that Clinton can claw out some kind of victory (popular vote) to lever the Supers with (and on the way make it so Obama can no longer stand let alone walk). At that point Camp Clinton will surely stop talking about a tie and point to their (they hope) .00001 percent advantage in the popular vote and count that as a "awesome mandate from the people."
But whatever kind of victory they imagine it will be pyrrhic at best, given that both candidates are kneecapping each other (and/or themselves) and the supers will still need to decide anyway. Since the Clinton camp has been pounding the "supers should exercise independent judgment" rule like a drum, why not embrace it?
The race is a "tie" and will remain a "tie."
The supers should recognize that they will have to break this "tie," either now, or in the future.
The supers should exercise their best judgment and evaluate all the relevant facts at hand (and we know what those facts are).
Having reviewed these relevant facts they should make their judgments and decide now for the good of the party.
There is no reason to delay. Get your favorite super to decide today.
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