Quiet Confidence: 5 Reasons Obama will win Texas, Ohio and the Nomination

Disheartening pre-election polls, the beginning of the Rezko trials, "Goolsbee Gate"... Yes, it's ugly out there today, but for a number of reasons I'm quietly confident about Obama's prospects tomorrow and in the race to win the nomination.

1. The ground game in Ohioand Texas. Obama's put together an incredible ground organization, particularly in Texas. I know the evidence is anecdotal, but Obama has consistently outperformed polling because he is reaching voters that are participating for the first time. Simply put, he's doing a better job of getting his voters to the polls on election day. I expect that trend to continue tomorrow.

2. The expectations game. Clinton has spent the day saying that Obama needs to win decisive victories tomorrow to claim victory, but this is complete poppycock. We're beginning to hear major names in the Democratic Party such as Bill Richardson call for unity after today, and that pressure will only increase over time if Hillary can't hurt Barack where it counts: delegates. He will maintain his delegate lead through a smashing victory in VT, a slight loss in Ohio and a slight gain in Texas. Superdelegates will continue to commit to him, and you will hear more voices clamoring for Clinton to get out.

3. "But she's going to stay in almost no matter what..." And that I would argue is a good thing for Obama too. The scrutiny has undoubtedly ratcheted up several notches, but this will just toughen him up even more for the General Election. Hillary's presence in this contest has only made Obama a better candidate. The Republican wurlitzer was going to throw everything they had at him, too, and the earlier this stuff comes out (i.e. Rezko), the more opportunity he'll have to defend himself and prove he's the better candidate.

4. More campaigning in Obama friendly states. After tomorrow's contest, we go on to Wyoming (caucus state), Mississppi (heavy Af-Am population), Indiana (Illinois' neighbor), North Carolina (strong Obama country), Oregon (similar to WA). ALL of these states favor Obama, and after the rest of the contests, he should maintain a lead of 200 or so delegates. At that point the pressure on the rest of the Supers to give him the nomination will be enormous.

5. Michigan and Florida. Today it was announced that Florida Governor Charlie Crist would allow a new election to proceed. This would give Obama a chance to close the delegate gap there through a vigorous campaign.

The bottom line is that Obama is still in a position of great strength no matter what happens tomorrow. So let's keep working hard and I'm fired up and ready to go for a vigorous campaign through the spring and summer.

•  Don't tip me...

  Go phonebank!

  by Acacia951 on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 01:34:37 PM PDT

•  Excellent post...

  Go get 'em, y'all.  Grrrrrrr!

  by mayan on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 01:35:13 PM PDT

•  What about the Rhode Island Firebrick?

  If he can't win the little state, what's the point in winning the big ones?

  Seriously, I hope he manages to defy the polls and sweep this sucker tomorrow...it's the only way to get Hillary out of the race.  Anything less than a rout, and she'll work the media (and the party) through the convention.

  by darthstar on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 01:36:15 PM PDT

  •  Rhode Island will be curious

    I think that one will be closer than expected, maybe an 8-10 pt win for Clinton and she'll only gain a delegate or two out of it.

    by Acacia951 on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 01:36:56 PM PDT

  •  Seriously?

    We're known expecting him to win Rhode Island, a state that reveres Hillary Clinton????

    There is another little state voting tomorrow, and that's Vermont, and he'll absolutely trounce Hillary there.

    by jenontheshore on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 01:41:17 PM PDT

  •  Someone in another trhead described it aptly

    as a fire lego...

    by MingPicket on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 01:41:43 PM PDT

  •  I don't know.

    Unless the results are clearly strong for her tomorrow, I would have no compunction against wheeling out the statements made by her own people, including her husband over the last month about where the goalposts were to be found, and what it would mean if she didn't meet them.

    Letting them turn this around to put the pressure on Obama is just another example of our screwed up, "up equals down" tendencies of our society.

    by QuestionableSanity on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 01:44:31 PM PDT

    •  goalposts - HRC's people have been working

      hard on getting those set to the right level...

      

      by darthstar on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 01:47:48 PM PDT

      •  Here's a shot of that moving firewall...

        

        by haruki on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 01:57:34 PM PDT

  •  The Brown U. poll, usually pretty good

    on their analysis has a 21 point undecided.  This seems to be a good sign for Barack Obama.  Am I missing something here?

    by StrayCat on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 05:21:00 PM PDT

•  I agree

  indeed!

  by norahschronicles on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 01:36:26 PM PDT

•  Thank you!

  I wrote earlier that, after 11 consecutive wins, our muscle for losing has atrophied. We don't know what to do with ourselves!

  But that's silly. I am pretty sure that Hillary Clinton wishes she was Barack Obama right now. She will make no inroads into his delegate lead (which is now at 162) and next week, he'll be racking up more delegates in Wyoming and Mississippi.

  As for the "scandals". There is nothing! This is weak tea. After 13 months, the most oppo that the Clinton team has come up with is Rezko. Honestly, I never, ever thought that Obama would make it this far. We have to maintain our perspective.

  by jenontheshore on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 01:38:33 PM PDT

  •  Rezko is minor

    The thing that will give Clinton wins tomorrow is the smear that Obama is Muslim, and by implication a terrorist sympathizer.  Apparently Clinton union phonebankers have tried to spread the smear.

    I am so disgusted with Clinton's half ass response to this smear on 60 Minutes that I will likely vote for John McCain if she is the nominee.  

    by IhateBush on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 02:23:48 PM PDT

•  It's a good set of arguments

  Certainly if number 1 pays off for him, the rest don't matter.

  I do find it amusing though to see an Obama fan using the superdelegates in such an undemocratic way -- "The pressure on the rest of the Supers to GIVE HIM the nomination will be enormous."

  Good to remember -- neither of these candidates can win the election w/o the superdelegates giving it to them.  

  by ActivatedbyBush on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 01:38:43 PM PDT

  •  And a great argument

    for why the whole system needs to be fixed before 2012, no matter what happens.

    by Acacia951 on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 01:39:35 PM PDT

    •  Ay-MEN

      by ActivatedbyBush on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 01:57:32 PM PDT

•  At some point

  I would expect money to become an issue.  When it becomes clear to her camp that she can't make up the difference, it becomes pointless to keep pumping money into a losing effort (well, unless you are Mark Penn and making money from the losing effort).

  by clambake on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 01:43:29 PM PDT

  •  Which is exactly why they haven't released the $

    Figure. They figure they're going to win Texas, they have a big $ figure in their pocket, and they're going to release it on Thursday if Hillary doesn't drop out (they'll give her a day to "think everything over"). And as soon as they do that, it'll be enormous pressure for her to get out in favor of him. I think they've got something mind-boggling. I'm not going to guess the figure, but I will say I think the press will shut up about the Canadian embassy when they get a hold of Obama's figure...

    by The Bagof Health and Politics on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 01:47:19 PM PDT

•  The only reason it's ugly is becase the press

  wants a fight to sell commercials.

  http://healthybagofpolitics.blogspot...

  I'll also note that every time the press has tried this in the past: New Hampshire and the media clusterfuck over Hillary's tears, Wisconsin and the clusterfuck over plagiarism, South Carolina, etc, the people have overwhelmingly voted for the person with the NEGATIVE press. Just an observation.

  by The Bagof Health and Politics on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 01:44:36 PM PDT

  •  Well...let's not forget...

    that the telecoms owe some people pretty big time.  Not to mention the corporate owners, like GE, who don't want their perogatives interfered with by the Audacity of Hope.

    by mayan on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 01:46:32 PM PDT

    •  Absolutely

      Also a factor...

      by The Bagof Health and Politics on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 01:48:28 PM PDT

•  160+ pledged delegates...

  The expectation is how much closer she'll get. The reality is, not close enough.

  by First Amendment on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 01:47:38 PM PDT

•  We Should All Be Fired Up And Ready To Go! So We

  Can Rid The Democratic Party Of The Unsavory Characters That Are The Clintons.

  They Have Run A Campaign Worthy Of Republican Praise. But That Is Not The Way Dems Roll. Wrong Party.

  GOBAMA!

  by DFutureIsNow on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 01:49:07 PM PDT

•  Clinton is playing liked she is far behind

  in all states while Obama's team is confident where they stand.

  Come on, you don't blitz like you are doing today if you are ahead.  Clinton camp has to be real desperate and concerned.

  by ourhispanicvoices on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 01:50:16 PM PDT

•  Tomorrow night can't come too soon! The suspense

  is killing me.  

  by drmah on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 01:53:43 PM PDT

•  Get Real About HRC's Position

  I really think that becasue of the Clinton brand name, it hard for people (even some Obama supporters) to realize that Hillary is in a horrible position.  First, I think that Obama is going to finish with a lead of 130 pledged delagates (worst case) to 200 (pledged delegates best case) if the whole string plays out.  So, HRC cannot win pledged delegates.  Second, let's say that Obama makes it to 1600 pledged delegates (very likely given what we know about the remaining states) by the end of the primary season.  He will only need a little over half of the Superdelegates to get to 2025.  Do you really think that on June 7, 2008 (after the last primary) superdelegates are going to sit on the fence so that HRC can (1) have a fight about Michigan and Florida, (2) try to take frustrate the popular will and (3) the Democratic party will wait to late August with no nominee?   No way, they are going to endue 10 more weeks of infighting.  Obama will wrap this up sooner or later.  I would prefer that it be Tuesday, but if not, I think no later than June 7, 2008.  

  by jhwvertigo on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 02:16:14 PM PDT

•  Thank you!

  I'd prefer to see it end tomorrow, and suspect that due to Obama's superior ground game it still just might. The polls this cycle have been notoriously unreliable.

  I hope like heck that I'm right.

  by SecondComing on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 02:28:02 PM PDT

•  Obama doing well in Columbus

  The Hotline

  In Ohio's capital city, the temperature today reached the upper 60s, with a mix of sun and clouds. Tomorrow's forecast calls for rain, and lots of it. So which day would you rather vote?

  Across the state, Ohioans are in fact voting today. And hundreds of thousands have cast ballots in the past few weeks, as residents take advantage of the state's new early voting option. Local elections officials are reporting record numbers of early votes cast in tomorrow's primary, including 158,000 absentee ballots already received in Franklin and Cuyahoga Counties.

  And though both Democratic campaigns have encouraged their supporters to vote early, there is some evidence that Barack Obama may have an upper hand....

  "From our experience, it's Obama that's having the impact here," said Summit County's Williams, who added that some voters have been mistakenly putting "Obama" in the part of the form where they are supposed to indicate their party.

  by RandySF on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 02:30:44 PM PDT

  •  Here in Columubs - We were always demographically

    better for Obama -- there are other areas in Ohio that would be better indicators of how he is going to perform.

    TBH, I just don't know at this point what is going to happen.  I fear HRC is going to eek out small victories in both TX and OH but i'm hopeful that the good people from TX prove me wrong.

    Obama '08

    by zoopnfunk on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 02:40:53 PM PDT

    •  Do you know of any other early voting stories

      from Ohio?

      by Acacia951 on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 02:41:46 PM PDT

    •  Those good people in TX are not that good at all

      Racism among Latinos is rampant.
      It's worse than among whites.

      by elender on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 02:59:18 PM PDT

•  Contested primaries...

  The best motivator for forcing a campaign to mobilize and organize on the ground of every state.  The Obama campaign is doing a magnificent job and I look forward to a good election day Tuesday.

  by BasharH on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 02:53:13 PM PDT

•  Agree with all except

  your last point...revoting in FL would be a hornet's nest...thankfully it looks like at best a remote possibility.

  by oscarsmom on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 03:50:22 PM PDT

  •  Beats seating the delegates previously "elected"

    by NWTerriD on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 10:10:25 PM PDT