Disregard all the spin, all the hype, all the predictions and prognostications. At this point in the primary and caucus process, math is king. Its the final firewall.

more after the fold..

Don't believe my numbers. Simply go to a handy-dandy tool CNN has made available and punch in the number of delegates each candidate will win in the remaining races and see what the results are.

My summary shows Clinton winning Ohio, Obama winning Texas, both narrowly, Clinton winning PA narrowly, and dividing the remaining race in accordance with how I think they will go (see below).

In the end, for Clinton to win, I show her having to win 307 of the 364 remaining superdelegates who have not yet endorsed anyone.

And guess what? These numbers assume Florida and Michigan are seated at the convention with the delegates as they stand today.

Try it however you want. Obama will go into the convention with the most pledged delegates and he will win the nomination.  Tomorrow, he may not win the battle, but there is no doubt he will have won the war.

I encourage you to use your own thinking, your own judgements and exercise the tool yourself. Post how many superdelegates Clinton needs to win of the 364 superdelegates remaining based on your own calcuations. I'd be curious to see them.

Here's my numbers:

Clinton/Obama

OH 75/66
TX 92/101
WY 3/9
PA 81/77
IN 29/43
WV 16/12
OR 20/32
SD 6/9
RI 12/9
VT 6/9
MS 14/19
GU 2/2
NC 44/71
KY 28/23
MT 6/10
PR 15/40

Superdelegates:  307/57  Total Clinton 2025 (needed to win)

There is no way Clinton gets 307 of the remaining superdelegates.

And don't forget this gives Clinton FL and MI as they stand today.

No spin after tomorrow will change this simple fact. Math is the final firewall. I challenge any HRC supporter to post the numbers that shows a Clinton win and defend it. No spin, just numbers.

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#### Comment Preferences

• ##### thank you(3+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
socratic, mommaK, notquitedelilah

I have no fingernails left and probably won't sleep until it's over.

• ##### Well you better hope that this doesn't got to PA(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Avila

Because if it does, you'll die!

No day but today--Obama '08

[ Parent ]

• ##### God, I hope so(0+ / 0-)

Vote for Hillary, vote for McCain, vote for war, what's the difference?

In God we trust. All others must pay cash.

• ##### the Hillary formula(0+ / 0-)

my states matter more! The truth is this is a camapign now being run out of spite. Obama supporters will NEVER accept a loss going to the convention with a pledged lead. She has o chance of becoming president so her goal is to make sure McCain wins.

After Obama's eighth straight victory, Penn told reporters: "Winning Democratic primaries is not a qualification or a sign of who can win the general election.

• ##### I guess that could be it...(0+ / 0-)

gearing up for a run against McCain in 2012.

I just don't think there's anything Clinton or McCain can do to derail Obama at this point.

The penalty that good men pay for not being interested in politics is to be governed by men worse than themselves. - Plato

[ Parent ]

• ##### heh(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
elie

I was expecting a riff on the opening to Star Trek.  :)

Purely from the point of view of someone who loves politics, this primary season has been almost porn-like.  Primaries vs. caucuses! Lead changes!  Important demographics! Weak Republican field!  Money!  Baffled talking heads!  Ron Pau.. er.. skip that last one.

What a great year.

Go Democrats Go!

• ##### The Governor endorsed Obama(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
jhutson

And, everything I've read says that the majority of delegates, if not all, go to whoever the Governor endorses.

• ##### I see. FWIW, I've been tracking along with(0+ / 0-)

the spreadsheet that slipped out of the Obama campaign in early Feb and in that analysis the campaign was figuring to lose PR in delegates 25-30.

The campaign also projected losses in OH, TX and RI tomorrow but obviously to date they have outperformed their earlier projections. Still, I judge the campaign's performance by the yardstick they provided. I think that puts them in the most favorable light and if things should change then it will be fairly easy to spot where something went wrong.

The Governor of PR endorsed Obama after the spreadsheet came out.

thanks.

• ##### Yabbut Hillary has experience(0+ / 0-)

All Obama has is math and delegates and superdelegates. So, so, so there.

Hillary's a fighter. What's Obama? Some kind of math professor, huh?

Hillary has lowered the expectations. What's Obama gonna do? Get out the vote? Hah! Is that all he's got?

Hillary's got chutzpah. What is math compared with chutzpah?

• ##### Hillary's experience(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
jhutson

The only example I have of Hillary's leadership experience and capabilities is her campaign.

And y'all thought the Bush Administration was inept?

[ Parent ]

• ##### I can't understand...(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Texasblue

what they think is going to happen to make her the nominee. All I can see is that they're holding out hope that they'll come up with some kind of scandal to sink Obama and she'll take it by default.

Nothing else makes sense to me.

The penalty that good men pay for not being interested in politics is to be governed by men worse than themselves. - Plato

• ##### understating Obama's Texas margin(0+ / 0-)

Al Giordano has done a state senate district analysis and conservatively says Obama comes out of TX +27.  I will be more conservative and say +20.  Given the demographics of districts in OH, even with the blowup on NAFTA it is hard to see Clinton better than +12 in OH.  Then VT and RI will basically cancel one another out.   If that is so, he increases his margin tomorrow.  Giordano says +20 net, I say at least double digits.  next is WY and then MS (which you left out)  - so by one week from tomorrow, if the scenario does play out, he widens his margin by at least another 12-1 delegates.  And that says nothing of supers, who if he wins TX and holds - not even increases - his elected delegate lead, will begin to break.

But if she wins the popular vote in TX, no matter how narrowly, she is in a much better position to lean on super delegates not to go to Obama.

Those who can, do. Those who can do more, TEACH! If impeachment is off the table, so is democracy

• ##### Do superdelegates want six more weeks of this?(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
mommaK, bluegrass50

I know the CW right now is that Clinton can make a case for staying in if she wins the popular vote in TX and OH. But people have to wake up on Wednesday and ask themselves if six more weeks (at least) of "Of course he's not a Muslim, uh, I mean that's what he says, isn't it?" and "McCain and I have the chops to run this country. Obama doesn't." is really good for the Party.

Clinton's only path to victory is to destroy Obama, which only poisons the well for the Democrats in November. Why let her continue on along this path?

• ##### Great analysis.(0+ / 0-)

Your numbers make sense, and thanks for adding MS. However even you didn't add the Texas caucus.
My guess is that if Clinton loses Texas (delegate count or popular vote), as expected, then she will drop out, unless she truly wants to sabotage Obama's campaign.
The question is, how much support would Clinton have in a "sabotage Obama" effort?
The vitriolic tune and tone coming from die hard pro-Hillary supporters would suggest that Clinton will carry on.