Kos Prediction stats

I've been keeping a Google spreadsheet of my own predictions in the Dem. Primaries Vs. Actual results, and they haven't been too stellar.  So I decided to take all of Kos' predictions and plug them in.  Here are the results so far: http://spreadsheets.google.com/...

Trends and explanations:

* Out of 35 races, Kos has chosen the correct winner 77% of the time.

* When he's wrong, he's favored Clinton 75% of the time with an overestimation of 25 points.

* When he's right about Obama, he's underestimated his total 89% of the time, and by an average of 15 points.

* When he's right about Clinton, he's underestimated her total 63% of the time, and by an average of 3.5 points.

So, if these trends persist to his current predictions, Clinton will only "win" one state and Obama's numbers should be increased by about 3 points.

•  Wow, Predicting an Election by Studying Commentrs

  Just about as plausible as anything else in this goofy country I guess.

  by Gooserock on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:12:47 AM PDT

  •  It also means that we all need a life!

    I mean why are you guys pouring over this stuff when in just a few hours we will know.

    (But then again, so am I... :-))

    by Zoltan on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:14:30 AM PDT

    •  It's a sickness

      We all seem to share

      by melthewriter on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:21:58 AM PDT

      •  I can quit any time! n/t

        by Zoltan on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:23:31 AM PDT

        •  Must. Have. First. Wave. Exit. Polls. Now.

          by RobertInWisconsin on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:25:19 AM PDT

          •  The first thing I'll be looking for is African Am

            erican turnout in Texas. If it's near 30 percent, I think Obama wins handily.

            by jeepdad on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:30:38 AM PDT

        •  is there a patch or gum or something?

          I have to kick this political monkey............

          by buddabelly on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:28:46 AM PDT

        •  Good thing. The supply is rapidly drying up. nt

          by Nick Blas on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:49:21 AM PDT

    •  Why do some people

      play crosswords and Sudoku? Fun.

      by Eidolon on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:23:43 AM PDT

      •  Yeah, but I tell my in-laws who play those

        that they could just wait until midnight, go online, and find the answer. It would save a lot of time!

        by Zoltan on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:25:22 AM PDT

      •  And Kakuro!

        I love me some Kakuro!

        by deminva on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:56:31 AM PDT

  •  makes as much sense as any other analysis

    this really is a wacky election.

    Personally I'll be watching the ground operation...I'll doubt there has ever been a GOTV operation like the one Obama has in Ohio. Interesting to see if its enough.

    by mihan on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:16:44 AM PDT

    •  GOTV enough to keep it close

      TEXAS is the key.

      T-E-X-A-S.

      That's why Obama's there tonight, because his campaign feels that out of the two states that's the one where he has the best shot, and that's pretty obvious by polling, demographics, etc.

      An Obama victory in Texas (popular vote) even by the slimmest of margins (for keeping up appearances and to fill in the maps on TV), plus a Clinton win by <7% in Ohio, is enough.</p>

      by ekthesy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:22:48 AM PDT

      •  has Obama won a heavily hispanic state yet?

        I know he lost Az. Cal and New Mexico. I wonder why the demographics favor him in Texas with such a huge hispanic population.

        by buddabelly on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:30:48 AM PDT

        •  A part of it is the weird districting,

          which I don't quite understand myself. But it's supposed to favor him.

          by Zoltan on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:39:15 AM PDT

        •  He lost NM by a hair. Richardson has said

          that one reason he has not endorsed is because the election was so close.

          The Texas latinos are fifth generation (unlike the other states) with many more young voters who never knew the Clintons.  These young voters are heavy in the Barack camp.

          by Templar on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:42:48 AM PDT

•  Thanks for the crumbs!

  Anything to tide me over till 6:00pm!!!

  by Zoltan on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:13:31 AM PDT

•  So who will win?

  Isn't that what we want to know?

  by DClark4129 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:14:09 AM PDT

  •  It's all there, you just have to decode it n/t

    by Zoltan on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:15:26 AM PDT

•  also

  if Kos woke up this morning and saw his shadow, the election will go on for 6 more weeks.

  by VoteHarder on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:14:13 AM PDT

  •  Pray

    that the Bay Area is badly overcast...

    by ogre on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:18:08 AM PDT

    •  See his comment below

      It's a nice sunny day out here.

      by Tuffy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:32:00 AM PDT

      •  God hates us.

        <perky voice> But then, we already knew that--Rev. Phelps told us that.

        by ogre on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 12:21:07 PM PDT

  •  I saw it

    sorry

    by kos on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:19:56 AM PDT

    •  wow, you could have lied...

      i don't think I can stand another 6 weeks
      of this suspense....
      the stress will kill me...

      :)

      by Statusquomustgo on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:30:55 AM PDT

    •  Best Reason

      I've seen to troll-rate a Kos comment into oblivion.

      by deminva on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:57:29 AM PDT

    •  kos, you bastard!

      by ogre on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 12:21:27 PM PDT

  •  I had a diary on the shadow theme a while back

    Punxsutawney Phil Says: No Shadow, No Need to Campaign for Six More Weeks

    by Zoltan on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:22:54 AM PDT

  •  So today is Groundkos Day ?

    by RobertInWisconsin on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:24:56 AM PDT

  •  excellent comment lol

    by Statusquomustgo on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:28:13 AM PDT

•  Well...

  ...Kos really should have put Obama up by 20 in all the races, then.

  Today will not be pretty.

  by Addison on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:15:16 AM PDT

  •  I'm covering my ears

    La! La! La! La!

    But you are probably right, unfortunately.

    by Zoltan on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:17:08 AM PDT

•  Hooray???

  I really don't know what to think of this diary?

  I mean, it's good that kos has been so aweful in his predictions!

  Thanks kos, I think??? LOL :-)

  by IraqVeteran on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:16:08 AM PDT

•  Studying the smudges on a crystal ball

  by CanAm on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:19:16 AM PDT

•  Cool!

  I don't have to look this stuff up.

  And I don't think I made a prediction for Virgin Islands.

  by kos on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:19:39 AM PDT

  •  Kos, 77% - that's only a C+

    by jamesparenti on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:24:02 AM PDT

    •  Kos is a C student. He could be President! n/t

      by Zoltan on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:26:18 AM PDT

  •  it was round-about.

    Here.

    "For this weekend, I'll cop out and stick with the Obama campaign's numbers. They're as good as any."

    by MaxKelly on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:24:47 AM PDT

    •  i for one found this fascinating

      thanks for the work!  kos is pretty accurate compared to the polls, and your analysis seems accurate to me based on what i've read and observed.

      by Sargent Pepper on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:29:16 AM PDT

  •  weird....why is Kos' UID 3?

    Who beat you to signing up on your own website?

    by pmukh on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:24:58 AM PDT

    •  Maybe kos is a sockpuppet ?

      ;)

      by RobertInWisconsin on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:26:02 AM PDT

  •  Worried

    What makes you feel so good about the Texas number? Just curious.

    by jumbohoya on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:25:04 AM PDT

•  Good job. We'll see how well his Texas

  prediction holds up. He seems curiously confident in that one.

  by jeepdad on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:24:02 AM PDT

  •  So Is Al

    Over at The Field.

    Something's up in the internal polls, methinks.

    by pletzs on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 12:24:12 PM PDT

•  One quick anecdote

  I was talking to someone from Texas yesterday. She said that I should hear her family in Texas talking. I said, "What are they saying?"

  She said that they are saying that Hillary is really digging herself into the ground. Everytime she digs deeper, Obama takes the dirt she dug up and dumps it on her head.

  They don't like her.

  But that's just one anecdote.

  by Zoltan on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:41:41 AM PDT

  •  I've got a couple

    First, I heard a bobblehead on Sunday morning TV say something like "no one really cares if Obama's middle name is 'Hussein'". However, I personally heard from 3 different people that they couldn't vote for Obama because he might be Muslim and because of his middle name.  People should never underestimate the ignorance of rednecks, or how many of them vote.

    Second, while voting this morning in a HEAVILY Republican area of Galveston County, there had to have been 50 or so people cycle through the Democratic primary lines... and about 2 Republicans on the other side of the room.  I actually walked in with 5 or 6 people in close proximity, and the Republican precinct captain (he was closest to the door) would ask "Republican or Democrat?" and then point you in the right direction.  After a few more people walked in (all Dems) he asked the next lady, and when she said "Democrat", he said "of course" in a very despondent way. I chuckled on the inside.

     

    by MaxKelly on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:55:01 AM PDT