Exit polls

I don't run exit polls anymore because quite simply, I don't buy them.

But other people will.

And for the record, the early exit polls have had little correlation to final results this primary season. Don't read too much into them.

•  wait for the real numbers

  by MisforMichigan on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:22:36 PM PDT

  •  These polls just show it's anyone's game...

    in all states but Vermont.  It could break in any direction.  They tell us nothing.  :(

    by LJW on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:31:07 PM PDT

    •  Ed Zachary

      and this stupid caucus situation tonight after the regular voting.  Talking to rank and file folks in Texas - it's not going to be as big as people think.

      The only folks who will go caucus tonight are the die-hards on either side so we'll end up with six or half dozen either way.

      by MFL on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:32:33 PM PDT

    •  They tell us...

      That it is not the blow-out that Hillary needs to get ahead in this race.

      by RichM on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:34:25 PM PDT

      •  all that will matter

        is the spin.

        Until Obama started blowing her out of the water in the other primaries, the meme was that Obama was crashing on HIllary;s party.  He had no business staying in...even though he lead in the pledged delegate count and they were hoarding all the supers.

        by MFL on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:37:02 PM PDT

      •  If they can be believed

        They could be completely wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.

        by Angry White Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:38:50 PM PDT

      •  It tells me Obama may WIN

        2 million voters already voted and weren't exit polled. From the voting distribution, Obama probably won the early vote by 3-4%, so if he breaks even with the 1/3 of ballots actually cast on election day, then he wins.

        Likewise, in Ohio, while the numbers of early voters are fewer than in Texas, the turnout for early voting is far higher in pro-Obama areas than in pro-Clinton strongholds. One presumes from the turnout numbers that Obama is actually slightly ahead in the Ohio early vote. So again, if he breaks even on election day--or even loses by 1 or 2%--he could win.

        Very, very good numbers for the Obama campaign.

        by The Bagof Health and Politics on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:49:54 PM PDT

        •  Harris County Early Voting racial breakdowns

          (OOps not sure if this posted twice sorry) According to ABC13 democratic votingis outpacing r's 3 to 1.. not sure if R's are crossing over.. watch to see if the ratios hold up for the caucs at 7pm.

          With in-person early voting now complete, and totals available from all 35 sites around Harris County, we can analyze what the voting patterns portend for Senators Clinton and Obama in the hotly contested Democratic presidential race.  Based on the distribution of the county’s racial/ethnic residential patterns and the location of each of the 35 voting sites, we can make a fairly accurate estimate as to the makeup of the 168,277 in-person Democratic early vote.  My estimate is that the racial/ethnic composition of these voters is:

          Combined Anglo (Non-Hispanic Whites)
                 and Asian American ................... 44%
          African American............................ 38%
          Latino or Hispanic............................ 18%

          My read of these polls produces a vote division among Anglo-Asian voters of 56% for Hillary Clinton and 43% for Barach Obama with one percent not voting or voting for another candidate. African Americans are projected to break for Senator Obama by 86% to 13% for Senator Clinton.  Latino or Hispanic voters are projected to favor Senator Clinton by a margin of 61% to 38%.

          If we multiply these percentages against the early vote estimates in each racial/ethnic category we get the following predicted Democratic early vote distribution in Harris County:

                                           Obama        Clinton

          Anglo-Asian...               31,838         41,464

          African American          54,993          8,313

          Latino/Hispanic            11,510       18,477

          Est. Total.........              98,341        68,254

          by Cascadia on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:55:42 PM PDT

          •  Interesting and good analysis

            Hillary may win today, but she'll still lose the Texas primary if she's entering it with a 150,000 vote deficit. That's a lot of votes to make up, votes which aren't made up in a 51/49 election where 1 million people vote.

            by The Bagof Health and Politics on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:58:44 PM PDT

    •  This is whe we must continue to GOTV till the

      doors are shut

      by theguyP on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:55:01 PM PDT

    •  What they show is scary

      No Obama Texas blowout.  The two big states voting today will barely go one way or another.

      I wanted a good enough night for Obama that Hillary was toast.  I'm wondering if that will happen even if Obama barely carries both big states.  I know the difference between a 1% win and a 1% loss is bigger in impact than the (twice as big) difference between a 1% win and a 5% win.

      But if Hillary wins one and holds the other very tight, we likely won't get her out of the race.  If Obama wins both but they're very tight, I'm not sure whether the party starts pressuring HRC to finally get out, either.  I hope so, but I'm not sure.

      by CenterLeft on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:03:58 PM PDT

•  polls useles???

  who would have ever thought that.

  snark

  by Liberal Youth on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:23:24 PM PDT

  •  This anti-Eastern European stuff is...

    all so uselessly negative. Can't we all just get along, people?

    by RUKind on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:38:57 PM PDT

    •  Don't be a media lappdog.

      The race won't be over until the primaries finnish, so there's no point in czeching the polls.  Not even if the superdelegates sweden the pot.   We'll just have to stay hungary.

      by jbelac on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:42:48 PM PDT

      •  with all of those european puns

        you may have britian off more than you can chew.

        by brocktunestudios on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:48:05 PM PDT

        •  With all the Germanding that went on in

          all those Texas districts, it could be a long night.

          Don't know about you, but I'm Russian off to home to watch the returns. I'll probably Polish off a bottle of vodka before we know who won.

          by samlang on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:55:06 PM PDT

          •  Ur-al not getting off Scot-free, here

            It's off to Top Comments with the Latt of you!

            by earicicle on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:02:14 PM PDT

      •  NOr WAY!

        Voting hasn't Finnish, yet. Will Clinton win, or will she lose be Kossovo Bama's charisma? I'm sure that in his den, Mark Penn is crunching the numbers.

        by Rupert on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:01:30 PM PDT

    •  I tally all polls

      Volta early and Volta often.

      by nedog on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:22:56 PM PDT

•  Exit polls

  are only going to tell at most 65% of the story.  Early voting is going to be really important especially in Texas.

  by jkfp2004 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:23:25 PM PDT

  •  Yup.

    Here's what 2 minutes of googling turned up for the other "first wave" exit polls this year:

    California: Clinton 50, Obama 47
    New Mexico: Obama 52, Clinton 47
    Utah: Obama 61, Clinton 40
    Wisconsin: Obama ~60, Clinton ~40
    New Hampshire: Obama: 40; Hillary: 38

    That's a pretty mixed record right there.

    by dirtyhippie on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:35:37 PM PDT

    •  Yeah, BUT there's a difference this time

      Early voting in places like CA started when Clinton was ahead. Early voting in Texas and Ohio started two weeks ago--just as Obama was coming off of 11 straight victories. The turnout for early voting is higher in areas thought to be Obama strongholds in both states. Heck, in Texas, 2/3 of all voters probably voted early. If that's really the case, and if they were voting when Obama was ahead by 5-6, then Obama is going to benefit from the early voting this time. In theory, he could lose the actual election day turnout by 4% and STILL win because of the early votes.

      Good news for Obama. Also, the fact Rhode Island is trending his way is an interesting indicator. Hillary may have once again timed her attacks wrong, and may once again be looking at a backlash for being overly negative. Time will tell.    

      by The Bagof Health and Politics on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:53:24 PM PDT

  •  And let's not forget the TX caucus!

    If the primary's exit polls accurately predict a 50/50 split, Obama wins TX.

    by Mardish on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:36:20 PM PDT

    •  You forget

      Hillary's instruction manual for their caucus goers in Texas is to bumrush the Obama precinct captains and cause confusion before they know what hits them.

      by MFL on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:38:40 PM PDT

      •  Heh, something tells me exuberant

        Obama supporters will not be turned away :p

        by Mardish on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:40:31 PM PDT

    •  Primacaucus! My new favorite word!

      Sounds like a new horror flick beast. Coming soon to a theater near you: The Revenge of the Primacaucus.

      by earicicle on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:41:13 PM PDT

      •  Sounds like something that itches....

        ...or burns.

        by Big Nit Attack on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:45:50 PM PDT

        •  Or causes the punditocracy

          To get an erection lasting longer than four hours. Some of them will need to see their doctors after being "up" too long tonight!

          Apologies...I'm feeling a little delirious already, and I haven't even starting drinking yet.

          And I don't even drink. So that should make it even more interesting.

          by earicicle on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:57:15 PM PDT

      •  and needs...

        penicillin

        by mayan on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:47:17 PM PDT

      •  Or a film by John Sayles

        The Return of the Primacaucus Seven

        by expatyank on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:55:58 PM PDT

        •  I'd rather live in Primacaucus than Secaucus! n/t

          by earicicle on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:12:07 PM PDT

•  Yeah those seem unlikely n/t

  by AnnArborBlue on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:23:36 PM PDT

•  Yep

  GOTV!

  Don't rely on these numbers.

  :-)

  by DAVE DIAL on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:24:07 PM PDT

•  Kerry wins Ohio!

  Woo Hoo!

  by mmuskratt on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:24:10 PM PDT

  •  don't remind me

    n/t

    by billlaurelMD on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:26:32 PM PDT

    •  I think the reminder

      is warranted in this case.

      by johnsonwax on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:35:28 PM PDT

  •  sigh

    Funny McCain Pics archive updated regularly

    by InsultComicDog on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:27:46 PM PDT

    •  nice tag line! nt

      by kate mckinnon on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:43:07 PM PDT

  •  true dat

    But if it is THAT close in Ohio in today's primary, that is less than ideal for HRC campaign.

    by membengal on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:28:29 PM PDT

    •  I wonder!

      If Hillary and Bill will park themselves in Ohio and DEMAND a Recount.  Or DEMAND a lawsuit!

      ....because now that it matters you know....they'll want to demand some accountability in the process.

      ...or something.

      by MFL on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:34:12 PM PDT

    •  true diss

      on Hillary is what falls from the sky in some places. Try to stay dry people. No pissing on our own, either.

      by RUKind on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:41:07 PM PDT

  •  Ouch

    by ccortezz on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:33:01 PM PDT

  •  anyone else tempted to TR this?

    i didnt and wont, but that doesnt mean the trigger finger wasnt itchy...

    what a horrid night that was in 2004.  horrid.

    by Ajax the Greater on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:34:16 PM PDT

    •  Not remotely.

      I am confused why you would even consider that...

      by Argyrios on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:40:53 PM PDT

      •  was one of the most painful night in my life :(

        didnt like being taken back to that dark dark place...

        by Ajax the Greater on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:50:38 PM PDT

        •  Don't worry, it was all in good

          bipartisan and healing fun...

          Democracy always wins.

          by mmuskratt on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:52:50 PM PDT

  •  Wasn't Kerry up

    by big double-digits in the exits in PA as well and it came down to 1% in the end?

    by johnsonwax on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:35:01 PM PDT

    •  No, I live in PA, Kerry

      won PA but something like 5 pct or more...as i recall. It was at least 3 pct when all was counted.

      by wishingwell on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:45:34 PM PDT

  •  Oh Lord....Nooooooooooo

    by MisforMichigan on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:38:29 PM PDT

•  Exit polls do start telling the story early on

  When there are no actuals, exit numbers are fun.

  by Hope Monger on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:24:15 PM PDT

  •  Exit polls sell MSM ads until 10pm

    Apart from that the pundits would be belly up for the next few hours.

    by RUKind on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:43:26 PM PDT

•  A lot of TX voters wait until the end

  because the caususes are right after the polls close.

  by vertexoflife on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:24:27 PM PDT

  •  Between that and the massive early voting in TX

    these numbers are meaningless.

    Still glad they don't show Hillary up by 10 or something like that.

    by anonymit on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:32:59 PM PDT

  •  I'm not sure of that.

    If they wait until the end, then it's going to be a crush of voters trying to get into the caucus.  Sounds like Clinton strategy to me and not too smart.  The smart ones vote early, go home, and return to the caucus early to get at the head of the line.  That would be Obama voters.

    by trinite on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:01:40 PM PDT

•  Hillary has 69% of over 60 vote

  Obama has 67% of under 30.

  Seniors tend to vote way, way more often.  These numbers look great for HRC.  

  by KarlRove72HourGenius on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:24:52 PM PDT

  •  Except this has not been a typical election

    Youth vote counts this time.

    by dan667 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:26:36 PM PDT

  •  As in more than once?

    How could seniors "vote way, way more often" in a single day?

    by Methinks They Lie on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:27:34 PM PDT

    •  Seniors always vote in large numbers

      Young voters rarely do, but are voting in significantly larger numbers than usual this time out

      Funny McCain Pics archive updated regularly

      by InsultComicDog on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:29:05 PM PDT

      •  I know that seniors tend to vote in

        large numbers. I'm wondering how they could vote "way, way more often" on a single election day? "Often" being an adverb meaning "frequent" or "many times."

        by Methinks They Lie on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:49:40 PM PDT

    •  No, but

      if you tell them they've already voted, they'll believe you and go home.

      by Fishgrease on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:42:10 PM PDT

  •  whatever n/t

    by stevej on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:27:36 PM PDT

  •  So, does Hillary have a lock on it?

    You've said that in the past.

    I think these numbers say you're gonna have a very bad night.

    by Fishgrease on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:40:57 PM PDT

    •  We shall see..

      All the numbers I'm getting point to Obama supporters spinning harder than they have since Super Tuesday when they said CA,NY,MA, and NJ were nullified by Obama wins in rural caucuses.  Hillary taking 3/4 is the story the press will run with and will determine the narrative of the campaign from here on out.  

      by KarlRove72HourGenius on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:47:21 PM PDT

      •  Hillary is gonna win 3 of 4?

        Man...

        You ARE in for a bad night!

        She might lose RI!

        by Fishgrease on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:50:00 PM PDT

        •  Heh...

          Fox News and MSNBC paint a dire picture for Obama supporters.  

          Think: super tuesday, but without a dozen rural western states to fall back on.  

          by KarlRove72HourGenius on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:21:16 PM PDT

          •  Where's this picture?

            I'm watching MSNBC and it looks bad for Hillary!

            We'll know soon. Same bat time, same bat channel!

            by Fishgrease on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:46:38 PM PDT

  •  This year the under 30 ARE VOTING.

    They suddenly realized it's important to them because they'll be around longer.  They also found a candidate they like.

    by trinite on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:03:52 PM PDT

•  Looks like Vermont might be the only blowout n/t

  by Steve15 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:25:44 PM PDT

  •  Agreed...

    ...I'll buy the VT numbers, the rest are usless...even exit polls can't screw up a blowout all that much...

    by Aqualad08 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:27:33 PM PDT

    •  No, not useless.

      They tell us that there's no momentum for Hillary.  As predicted, it's close in places that Hillary was initially ahead by 20 to 30%.

      by trinite on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:06:10 PM PDT

      •  I wish someone in the MSM...

        ...brain trust would remind their viewing public of that fact...Clinton had HUGE leads in three of these states as late as two weeks ago...

        by Aqualad08 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:28:51 PM PDT

  •  Did anyone even bother exit polling us here?

    If so, would they only go to the big cities? ("Big city" being a relative term here...Burlington, Rutland, the megalopolis of Montpelier.) Didn't see anyone outside my town hall...

    by earicicle on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:30:10 PM PDT

    •  They try to weight for that...

      But it's not a perfect science.

      The '04 leaks were completely unweighted, and way too heavy in urban areas.

      by dmsdbo on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:33:29 PM PDT

      •  How? Do they assume we're more conservative

        in rural areas? Or what? Plenty of progs live outside the People's Republics of B'town and Montpeculiar--the cost of living is cheaper. Sounds like super-junk pseudo-science in a state with 250 towns if you poll at just a few and try to "weight" (my translation: makes bullsh***y guesses) about the rest.

        by earicicle on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:37:39 PM PDT

•  Does this mean they're running badly for BO?

  by RUKind on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:26:02 PM PDT

  •  they look implausibly good

    for Obama actually.

    by AnnArborBlue on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:27:17 PM PDT

    •  Implausibly good?

      I don't think close results are at all "implausible" - although I'd have expected bigger leads for Clinton in Ohio and Rhode Island.  But a close night is certainly "plausible."

      by jlkenney on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:28:37 PM PDT

      •  him winning Ohio seems unlikely

        at this point in time, and exits have consistently overstated Obama's support this entire process.

        by AnnArborBlue on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:29:33 PM PDT

        •  They have...?

          Not doubting you, but I seem to recall them understating it in VA and WI...?

          by dmsdbo on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:34:05 PM PDT

        •  Exits HAVE NOT overstated his support!...

          First posted exit poll on CNN for:

          Wisc.  Obama 55  Clinton 43
          Louisiana  Obama 54   Clinton 44
          Delaware  Obama 51   Clinton 47
          Virginia  Obama 61   Clinton 38

          Final results:

          Wisc.  Obama 58  Clinton 41
          Louisiana  Obama 57  Clinton 36
          Delaware  Obama 54  Clinton 43
          Virginia  Obama 64  Clinton 35

          So you see - in some states - and basically the most recent states - the exit polls posted for everyone have actually underrepresented Obama's vote counts.

          He seems to do well in the evening voting and I hope that holds tonight!

          by glendaleguy2007 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:02:41 PM PDT

  •  The opposite. Which is why I don't believe them.

    by elender on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:34:11 PM PDT

  •  I thought early polls had more women voters

    Kerry's lead in the early exits was due to a higher percentage of women voting early.  If that holds up, Obama will do substantially better in the final exits.

    by science on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:38:42 PM PDT

•  Rhode Island of all places

  Looks tighter than a tick...if Obama wins RI, that will be friggen NUTS

  by marcvstraianvs on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:26:07 PM PDT

  •  I saw one poll from RI today. It was too

    close to call.

    I just can't believe Obama will win RI, however.

    by elender on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:35:54 PM PDT

  •  Go Quahog!

    -brian

    by dnamj on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:41:02 PM PDT

    •  stuffed , baked, and yummy ones!

      by valadon on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:49:26 PM PDT

      •  With Xtra Linguisa. n/t

        by dnamj on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:02:08 PM PDT

    •  Giggity Giggity Giggity!

      by DJShay on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:51:26 PM PDT

  •  That's AMAZING TO ME! If he wins it, it will be

    Huge

    by Hope Monger on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:46:25 PM PDT

•  We need to stomp her

  leave no doubt

  by Vappid on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:26:09 PM PDT

  •  not constructive n/t

    by stevej on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:28:32 PM PDT

  •  Grow up! <>

    by RUKind on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:34:31 PM PDT

  •  Yes

    Stomping Clinton out of the race to end her poisoning the democratic well, to end her scorched-earth campaign and put us on a positive keel to kick republican ass.

    by GW Chimpzilla on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:52:54 PM PDT

•  I stand by my OWN Ohio numbers

  C: 54%  O: 46&

  by Pazuzu on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:26:19 PM PDT

  •  That seems likely to me as well.

    by Addison on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:35:08 PM PDT

•  Are people about ready to rumble?

  20 minutes until the thread goes up...

  by FleetAdmiralJ on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:26:24 PM PDT

  •  Look forward to it n/t

    by jeff in nyc on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:26:53 PM PDT

•  Couldn't someone post one of our nice,

  peaceful I/P diaries to relieve the tension?

  by Lepanto on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:26:40 PM PDT

  •  No, everyone's blow their diaries

    on tense primary stuff. Sorry!

    by Zoltan on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:27:31 PM PDT

  •  Busy, Working On My "There Is No God" Diary nt

    by Gooserock on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:33:12 PM PDT

    •  And I was working on my "Men are Pigs" diary

      although it was not intended in any way to cast disparagement on our porcine friends.

      by dnamj on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:42:24 PM PDT

      •  Can't wait to read that one, being an XY myself

        If you need help, let me know. I can provide lots of examples. ;-)

        Peace.

        by RUKind on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:47:34 PM PDT

        •  Can you provide video? ;->

          n/t

          by dnamj on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:00:47 PM PDT

      •  would that include Bill Clinton

        who MSNBC is reporting was on Rush Limbaughs show today???

        by munodi on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:49:48 PM PDT

        •  Yes. He is a man. and a pig. no big deal.

          not even an outlier on the bell curve.

          by dnamj on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:01:33 PM PDT

        •  Limbaugh wasn't on today

          I tuned in briefly while picking the kiddos up from school.  The guest-host (some guy from Texas ) was warning the Porcine-One's listeners to ixnay with forwarding the secret Uslim-May e-mails because it's demonstrably false and plays into the "Republicans are racists" meme.  He even gave a shout-out to Snopes.  I had to double-check to make sure the radio was on the right station.

          by aisling on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:20:37 PM PDT

    •  God is busy on a "There is no Gooserock" diary

      All depends on which reality you choose. ;-)

      Peace.

      by RUKind on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:45:56 PM PDT

  •  i had a prison rape diary i was

    working on.

    by SeanF on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:36:00 PM PDT

    •  I'm working on a nation rape diary

      Just trying to pick among the many this administration has violated. Any suggestions beside the obvious good old USofA and Iraq? Pakistan and Afghanistan come to mind.

      by RUKind on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:50:08 PM PDT

  •  IP will rule our world again

    Just wait for the summer offensive!

    by Salo on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:38:38 PM PDT

  •  I haven't used my

    diary for the day yet, hmm, I might waste it on a "If ____ loses, I'm voting for McCain! 10,000 years in Iraq isn't THAT BAD!" diary.

    To relieve the tension!

    by indiemcemopants on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:54:18 PM PDT

•  After results start coming in

  The exit polls will be weighted - they are a much better predictor after that.

  For now, they're useless.

  by sgilman on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:26:48 PM PDT

  •  Not useless

    They can predict blowouts - I am fairly confident that Obama will win Vermont.  For the rest, we'll just have to wait and see.

    by jlkenney on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:29:35 PM PDT

    •  I don't know

      she could still pull it out.

      I'm just happy that there are no blowouts on here side.

      by sgilman on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:31:30 PM PDT

  •  presumably for weighting...

    right?

    by billlaurelMD on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:00:29 PM PDT

    •  Yes. n/t

      by sgilman on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:07:44 PM PDT

•  Thank you

  I'll take anecdotal voting news, and reports of turnout.  But unweighted exit polls just muddy the picture and get people arguing over numbers that won't hold.

  by Skaje on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:26:49 PM PDT

•  Anybody read Jerome's post on Alter

  over at MyDD?  Wow.  Has he always been this way?  It seems like Alters argument is a pretty easy one to understand...  I guess not to everybody.

  by recusancy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:26:49 PM PDT

  •  Does Jerome have the Math?

    by bumblebums on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:29:52 PM PDT

    •  Math isn't an important state

      At least, I think that's what he said.  Hard to say, though, his train of thought is pretty hard to follow.

      by sja on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:37:36 PM PDT

    •  His argument is that neither candidate

      will get to 2225 or whatever the magic number is without super delegates.  What he doesn't get is that if the super delegates overturn the will of the voters then it is suicide for the party.

      by recusancy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:38:44 PM PDT

      •  Men Missing in the Party?

        Okay finally I know why it is so hard to find a male D to date. A 16% point spread?

        Demographic Electorate %

        Women         58%      
        Men         42%

        Hillary got Bill back in line by making him sleep on the couch. So you guys better make your votes count today. ;-)

        by Cascadia on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:46:42 PM PDT

        •  Bill is back in line?

          Are you sure?

          by trinite on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:11:14 PM PDT

  •  What I don't get

    is the bizarre response that Obama does not have the math to win either.  So...neither candidate can win.  Okay.

    Can't wait until primary season is over.  I hope sanity returns to those who I used to hold in respect, though I fear some have gone too far over the edge and will be joining the straight talk express.

    by Skaje on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:32:03 PM PDT

  •  Jerome has lost all credibility in my mind.

    He is so anti-Obama, and so pro-Clinton, in his posts that he has lost all objectivity.

    At least Kos has nice things to say from time to time about Hillary.  Not so for Jerome re Obama.  

    by Delaware Dem on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:41:23 PM PDT

  •  Jerome thinks saying Barack HUSSEIN Obama

    is perfectly cool at his blog.

    In short, Armstrong is a first-degree wanker.

    by Geekesque on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:46:21 PM PDT

•  Digg This Diary

  http://digg.com/...

  by Zrarieh on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:27:29 PM PDT

•  Well...

  exit polls were right for the Potomac primaries and Wisconsin.  So far as one can gather, the exits would suggest an Obama blowout in Vermont, and close elections in the other three states.  Two points up here and two points down there is certainly meaningless, though.

  by jlkenney on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:27:52 PM PDT

•  Remember - NO early voting in exit polls

  And in TX it's 60% of the total estimated votes cast.

  by dmsdbo on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:28:00 PM PDT

  •  and unfortunately, the only pollsters

    to break down early voting recently showed two different results.

    by jeepdad on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:29:04 PM PDT

    •  Actually...

      I believe in TX they were the same.  But OH was where it was reversed.  I'd like to be proven wrong if it's the case, though!

      by dmsdbo on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:30:25 PM PDT

  •  60%? Really?

    That's incredible if true.

    by Angry White Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:30:40 PM PDT

  •  I don't know if anyone IS doing it...

    ...but it's not impossible to do TELEPHONE exit polling in an attempt to get early voters and mix them in.

    With early voting as high as it has been in Texas, they're going to HAVE to do something like that in November, if they're not already.

    by kenboy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:36:01 PM PDT

    •  Harris County Early Voting Analysis

      on one of thelocal news channels (ABC13)they did an analysis of the early voting in Harris County

      With in-person early voting now complete, and totals available from all 35 sites around Harris County, we can analyze what the voting patterns portend for Senators Clinton and Obama in the hotly contested Democratic presidential race. Based on the distribution of the county’s racial/ethnic residential patterns and the location of each of the 35 voting sites, we can make a fairly accurate estimate as to the makeup of the 168,277 in-person Democratic early vote.

      The numbers are amazing.

                                        Obama        Clinton

      Anglo-Asian...               31,838         41,464

      African American          54,993          8,313

      Latino/Hispanic            11,510       18,477

      Est. Total.........              98,341        68,254

      by Cascadia on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:50:38 PM PDT

  •  Do you know if early voting favors

    Obama or Clinton? Just curious.

    by Rachel in Vista on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:41:51 PM PDT

    •  I've heard Obama in both states. But that's

      just a rumor.

      I mean, how could they know?

      by Fonsia on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:49:04 PM PDT

•  Some of us happen to like uncorrelated data!

  thank you very much.

  -The Society for Heteroskedastic Observation

  by SteamPunkX on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:28:05 PM PDT

  •  uncorroborated is good too! n/t

    by stevej on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:30:39 PM PDT

    •  Give me metadata!!!

      Each and every time!

      by mayan on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:50:34 PM PDT

•  Rhode Island was supposed to be

  a Clinton blow-out. Not good for her!

  by Zoltan on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:28:25 PM PDT

•  This makes no sense to me

  I don't run exit polls anymore because quite simply, I don't buy them.

  If international human-rights groups can use them to monitor election fairness around the globe, why can't they function here?  I'm sure some are better done than others, but SURELY it possible to construct exit polls that are methodologically sound.