Preliminary Pennsylvania Congressional District Analysis

Since it looks like it's going to Pennsylvania, I thought I'd do a preliminary analysis of PA Congressional Districts, and their likely results.

UPDATE: Not that anyone's reading this, but since I figure Terry Madonna is smarter than me, a couple of changes.

Congressional District 1 (7 Delegates).  This district includes Southwest Philadelphia, those parts of South Philly, Center City, and North Philly east of Broad Street, and many of the largely African American western suburbs of Philadelphia, including Darby and Chester.  Represented by Democrat Bob Brady, the (white) chairman of the Philadelphia Democratic party, who has yet to endorse, the district is 45.9% Black, 33.0% White Non-Hispanic, 15.0% Hispanic (mostly the large Puerto Rican community in Kensington), and 4.9% Asian.  Obama will certainly win this district.  The question is whether the delegates will split 4-3 or 5-2 in his favor.  He will need 65% of the vote to get five delegates out of this district.  Given that half the electorate should be Black, this seems achievable, although the non-black population of this district, including large white ethnic populations in South Philly and the Puerto Ricans in Kensington, will not be as favorable to Obama as in the second district.  Still, Obama will likely only need about 40% of the non-Black vote to get the fifth delegate.    Prediction: +1 Obama (but possibly +3 Obama)

Congressional District 2 (9 delegates).  This district, which includes West Philly, those parts of South Philly, center city, and North Philly west of Broad Street, Northwest Philly, and some wealth Montgomery County suburbs, is represented by Chaka Fattah, who supports Obama.  Demographically, the district is very favorable to Obama - 61.2% Black, 29.9% White non-Hispanic, 3% Hispanic, 4.3% Asian.  The White population in this district is much more amenable to Obama than that in the first district - much more liberal and white collar, much less blue collar and ethnic.  Obama needs 61.5% of the vote, which he should get easily, to get 6 delegates here.  He needs 72.5% to get the seventh.  That seems achievable, given the demographics - assuming Blacks are 65% of the electorate, and he gets 85% of the Black vote, he'd need about 57% of the non-Black (mostly white) vote to get up to to a 7-2 split.  That seems achievable, but for the moment, I'll be cautious, and assume a 6-3 split.  Prediction: Obama +3 (but Obama +5 a distinct possibility)

Congressional District 3 (5 delegates).  This district, represented by Republican Phil English, comprises most of northwestern Pennsylvania - Erie, Crawford, Mercer, Butler, Armstrong, and parts of Warren County.  It is almost entirely white - 93.7% non-Hispanic white.  This seems like the kind of blue collar, Appalachian district where Clinton will do well.  She will easily win three delegates here.  She would need 70% of the vote to get four delegates - her performance in Youngstown, etc., in Northeastern Ohio wasn't quite this good - she'd have to have a very good day to get the fourth delegate.  Prediction: +1 Clinton

Congressional District 4 (5 delegates).  This district, represented by Democrat Jason Altmire, who has not endorsed, comprises northern and northwestern suburbs of Pittsburgh.  It is also over 90% White, and once again, is the kind of Appalachian white blue collar area where Clinton ought to do well.    Here, I'd say, she has a better chance for four delegates than in district three - some of the adjacent Ohio counties did go for her by that margin.  Still, she needs 70% to do that, which is difficult.  Prediction: +1 Clinton.

Congressional District 5 (4 delegates).  This district, represented by Republican John Peterson, occupies an enormous swathe of north-central Pennsylvania.  It's 96.5% White, and most of the area ought to be Clinton country, but it also includes the college town of State College (yeah, creative name, I know), where Penn State is located.  Given that it's only four delegates, and with the presence of State College, this one ought to be split evenly.  Prediction: Even split

Congressional District 6 (6 delegates).  This district includes relatively wealthy Philadelphia suburbs in Montgomery and Chester Counties, and kind of exurban sprawl in Berks County.  It is represented by Republican Jim Gerlach.  The district is 89% White, and more Republican than the other Philly suburbs, given the exurban, Chester and Berks County portions.  I assume Clinton will have the advantage here.  She needs 58.5% to go from an even split to a 4-2.  Holding this district to a split is pretty essential to Obama, I think - he needs to do relatively well in the Philly suburbs, or he's doomed.  Prediction: Split

Congressional District 7 (7 delegates).  This district, represented by Democrat Joe Sestak, who has endorsed Clinton, comprises the majority of Delaware County, although the parts of the county with large numbers of African Americans are in District 1.  Demographically, it looks fairly similar to the 6th District - 89% White.  With seven delegates, Clinton ought to pick up a one delegate advantage here, but she'd need 65% to get up to 5 delegates, which seems unlikely.  Prediction: +1 Clinton. (UPDATE: Madonna seems to think the Philly suburbs should be good for Obama, so I'll switch to +1 Obama)

Congressional District 8 (7 delegates).  This district, represented by Democrat Patrick Murphy, comprises the Bucks County suburbs of Philadelphia.  It is 92% White.  Like the other Philly suburban districts, I assume this one leans Clinton, but like the 7th, it should be difficult for her to get up to 5 delegates.  Prediction: +1 Clinton (UPDATE: Likewise, +1 Obama)

Congressional District 9 (3 delegates).  This district is a vast Pennsyltucky district in South central Pennsylvania, stretching from the outskirts of Harrisburg to Altoona and Connellsville.  Represented by Republican Bill Shuster I can't imagine Clinton not winning two delegates here.  Prediction: +1 Clinton.

Congressional District 10 (4 delegates).  This district in northeastern Pennsylvania includes Carbondale and Williamsport.  It is currently represented by Democrat Chris Carney, who has not endorsed.  The district is the whitest yet - 96.3%, and contains no notable segments of Obama friendly population that I can discern.  This is one where I would think Clinton stands a real chance of getting the 62.5% necessary to secure a third delegate.  Prediction: +2 Clinton

Congressional District 11 (5 delegates).  This district includes Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, Hazleton, East Stroudsburg - i.e. the more Democratic parts of Northeast Pennsylvania.  It is represented by Democrat Paul Kanjorski, who has endorsed Clinton.  Once again, a vastly white, blue collar district - Clinton has to have the advantage here.  Predicton: +1 Clinton

Congressional District 12 (5 delegates).  This oddly shaped district that runs in a very weird way around western Pennsylvania, was designed to be a safe seat for Democrat John Murtha, who has not endorsed.  Once again, very very white, and blue collar.  Prediction: Clinton +1

Congressional District 13 (7 delegates).  This district includes parts of (largely white, blue collar) Northeast Philadelphia, as well as some well off Montgomery County suburbs.  It's represented by Democrat Allyson Schwartz, who has endorsed Clinton.  87% White, I'm going to assume, again, that Clinton will have the advantage here.  Prediction: Clinton +1. (UPDATE: Likewise, switch to +1 Obama)

Congressional District 14 (7 delegates).  This district includes Pittsburgh and its inner suburbs.  It is represented by Democrat Mike Doyle, who has not endorsed.  It's 22.7% Black and only 1.1% Latino, and heavily Democratic.  This ought to be a good district for Obama.  Prediction: Obama +1

Congressional District 15 (5 delegates).  This district comprises the Lehigh Valley - Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton.  Represented by Republican Charles Dent. Largely white, but with a significant (8%) Hispanic population.  Prediction: Clinton +1

Congressional District 16 (4 delegates).  Mostly Lancaster County, but also snakes around to include Reading.  Very very Republican, and represented by Republican Joseph Pitts.  88% White, with a significant (9%) Hispanic population.  Clinton will probably win, although likely by not enough to secure a third delegate.  Prediction: Split

Congressional District 17 (4 delegates).  Includes Harrisburg, Lebanon, and Pottsville.  Represented by Democrat Tim Holden, who has not endorsed.  A decent sized Black population (7.5%), which ought to be a considerably larger portion of the Democratic electorate, suggests that it will probably be a split, whoever wins.  Prediction: Split.

Congressional District 18 (5 delegates).  This district includes southern and eastern Pittsburgh suburbs, and is represented by Republican Tim Murphy.  Vastly white, and probably mostly Republican.  Presumably it's advantage Clinton.  Prediction: Clinton +1

Congressional District 19 (4 delegates).  This very Republican district, which includes York, Carlisle, Gettysburg, and Hanover, and is represented by Republican Todd Platts, seems likely to be a split.  Prediction: Split.

This doesn't come out looking great for Obama.  Depending on how Philly turns out, it's somewhere between +3 Clinton and +7 Clinton.

In terms of areas for improvement for Obama, besides the two Philly districts, the Philly suburbs would present themselves as the obvious places.  Anyway, the basic result is: Pennsylvania's going to be very difficult for Obama.  As it stands, he looks likely to win only three of Pennsylvania's 19 congressional districts.

I will admit, though, that my demographic command of this is somewhat dubious - Perhaps I am overlooking likely blocs of Obama support in the non-Philadelphia and Pittsburgh portions of the state.  Please comment and let me know.

UPDATE: So, if we give Obama the three Philly suburban districts with odd numbers of voters, we actually switch to a range of +3 Obama to +1 Clinton, apparently...pounding the Philly media market (which also includes the Lehigh Valley, where Madonna also seems to think that Obama has a shot) might be the key for Obama.  There aren't any delegates to be had in Harrisburg, York, and Lancaster, so really Philly and the Lehigh Valley is where Obama needs to get margins.  If he can manage landslides in Philadelphia proper, and wins in all the Philly suburban districts plus maybe the Lehigh Valley, and also win Pittsburgh proper and prevent Clinton from getting landslides in the west and northeast Pennsylvania districts, he can win the district by district delegates.

•  Tips

  Tips if you like it.

  by jlkenney on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 10:53:04 AM PDT

  •  Very well done

    by RFK Lives on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 11:00:31 AM PDT

  •  I don't think anyone is expecting him to win PA

    I'd say a 10-15% margin for Hillary is quite likely, anything smaller than that should be considered a victory. Of course for Hillary 10-15% won't be nearly enough.

    by verily on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 11:01:46 AM PDT

    •  Phila Suburbs Could be Obama Territory

      Excellent analysis.

      The suburbs of Philadelphia and Philadelphia each have great potential as Obama territory.  That is one-third of the population of PA.  Other places with an older White population will take much more convincing.  Most of the rural areas are Republican.

      Most the Dem members of Congress have not yet committed themselves to either candidate.

      PA's primary is only open to persons registered as a Dem at least one month before the vote.  If you know someone who is pro-Obama and is not registered as a Dem, urge them to get registered as a Dem ASAP. I believe that can be done with a simple postcard available at most post offices and legislative offices.

      by JPZenger on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 11:12:50 AM PDT

      •  Philly suburbs

        would seem to be strong areas for Obama to do better.  But there are certainly Democrats in other parts of the state - Kerry won Luzerne and Lackawanna counties (Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, Hazleton), Lehigh and Northampton Counties (Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton), and Erie County (Erie).  He also came fairly close in Dauphin County (Harrisburg) and Centre County (State College).  All those areas have significant concentrations of Democrats.

        by jlkenney on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 11:15:49 AM PDT

  •  I'm in the 13th district

    I wouldn't rule him out from winning that. I could be overly optimistic and I really only have my gut to go on, as opposed to any knowledge whatsoever of past voting patterns in the district, but I see NE philly as more middle class and edumacated, and the suburban parts even more so. I could see that being Obama +1.

    by sab39 on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 11:41:32 AM PDT

    •  I don't know the 13th very well

      I live in Center City (CD-2), and don't go out that way very often.  My sense of NE Philly was that it has a lot of white ethnics - Irish-Americans who voted for Tom Knox, and so forth.  That, I imagine, would be decent territory for Clinton.  I know even less about the particular Montgomery County parts of the 13th.  But yeah, seems like a plausible district for Obama to pull out.  I would imagine that or the 7th as the most likely of the Philly suburban districts.

      by jlkenney on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 01:02:49 PM PDT

      •  I'm in the 13th

        near Lansdale...

        and the only Presidential campaign around here with any lawn signs is Ron Paul ;)

        Funny McCain Pics archive updated regularly

        by InsultComicDog on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 08:09:54 AM PDT

•  Superb job! Please recommend

  For those who like maps, get yours at National Atlas.

  by ClaudeB on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 11:01:55 AM PDT

•  Pretty good for a start...and

  for Obama supporters, a three to seven delegate loss would not be a worry.  Pennsylvania is roughly one-quarter of the remaining delegates available.  Clinton would need a pick-up of 20 to 30 delegates to make that happen.  And the percentage thresholds are just too high to even think that a comeback is reasonable.

  by TexasAMC on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 11:04:02 AM PDT

  •  Well...

    if Clinton wins by the same margin she win Ohio, she'll also get +5 from at large delegates.  So it's a +8 to +13 margin for Clinton, overall.  If she could win by 15 points, she'd get +9 from at large delegates, for, at max, something like a +16 margin for Clinton from the state.

    by jlkenney on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 11:13:54 AM PDT

•  PA Latino Population is Mainly Puerto Rican

  Eastern PA has a fast-growing Latino population, which has increased by tens of thousands since the 2000 Census.  It is primarily Puerto Rican, with some Dominicans, and very few Mexican-Americans.  Many moved from New York and Northern New Jersey.  This population may not have the same attitudes and loyalties as Mexican-Americans.  

  Because PA's Latino population is more transient than many groups, I assume it does not have a high voter turnout.

  by JPZenger on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 11:04:53 AM PDT

  •  There's a large Puerto Rican community

    in Kensington in Northeast Philadelphia.  They're mainly in the first District, and I imagine that community is well-established enough to vote in decent numbers.  Also, all Puerto Ricans are US citizens, unlike Mexican Americans.  Puerto Ricans in New York appear to have voted for Clinton, but that's a home field advantage, so it's unclear how they'll vote.

    Still, I don't think there's enough of them outside the first district to do much harm to Obama, and Obama should easily win the first district, regardless.

    by jlkenney on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 11:12:16 AM PDT

    •  Here's the Data on Latinos by County 2006

      Thanks again.

      http://pasdc.hbg.psu.edu/...

      The above are official estimates of Latino and African-American populations by County for 2006.
      Those estimates show Berks County (Reading) at one-eighth Latino and Lehigh County (Allentown) at one-seventh Latino.  If anyone tries to simply use 2000 data, it will miss some of this trend.

      by JPZenger on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 11:19:04 AM PDT

      •  The data I was using

        was from the most recent census estimates.  the city of Reading is mostly in the Lancaster County district, which has only four delegates.  The district is very Republican, so I suppose the Hispanics might be enough to swing it to 3-1 Clinton, assuming they vote heavily Clinton, but that's always difficult to swing.

        Allentown is in the 15th district, where I picked Clinton to win.  Other than those, the first district, which has enough African Americans for Obama to win comfortably, is the only other one with a significant Latino population.

        by jlkenney on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 11:24:20 AM PDT

  •  Thinking about the Latino issue further...

    I looked up the New York and New Jersey exit polls, to see how Clinton did among Hispanics there.

    First census data on those Hispanic groups:

    In New York, about 34% of Hispanics are Puerto Rican and 12% are Mexican.  The rest are mostly "other", which I take to mean largely Dominican, but with some Central Americans.

    In New Jersey, it's about 29% Puerto Rican, 14% Mexican, and the rest "other" - again, presumably mostly Dominican, with some Central Americans.

    In Pennsylvania, it's 55% Puerto Rican, 16% Mexican, and the rest "other" - again, presumably Dominicans and Central Americans.

    So, basically, Pennsylvania Latinos are more Puerto Rican, and less Dominican, than Latinos in New York and New Jersey.

    Now, on to the election results. Clinton won enormous majorities among Latinos in New York and New Jersey - 75% in New York, 70% in New Jersey.   Clinton had a kind of home field advantage in those states, though, especially New York - she got 37% of the Black vote in New York, which is about double what she got anywhere else.  So New Jersey is probably a better model than New York.  Probably some home field advantage there, as well, but still, 70% is considerably worse than Obama has done among Mexican-Americans in the southwest.  But, again, how much of that is home field advantage for Clinton?

    The other issue would be whether or not we can distinguish Puerto Ricans from Dominicans, in terms of voting behavior.  I have no idea how to go about doing that, but if one is more likely to vote for Clinton than the other, it could be meaningful for Pennsylvania, which has lots of Puerto Ricans, but not many Dominicans.

    by jlkenney on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 03:34:22 PM PDT

•  congressional districts

  Well done.

  by fishes on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 11:11:30 AM PDT

•  To sum it up...

  Whites and Hispanics will vote for Clinton, and blacks will vote for Obama.

  If two people of the same race were running, do you think people would actually make informed votes?

  by Stuck Between Stations on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 11:18:29 AM PDT

  •  Not all whites will vote for Clinton, certainly

    Obama will do very well with the white voters in the majority black 2nd district in Philadelphia, for instance.  He'll probably be able to hold his own in the very white Philly suburbs (although I think Clinton probably has the edge there, for the moment).  But most of the state is kind of blue collar and rust belty, and that plays to Clinton's strengths.

    And demographics is always important in any election.

    by jlkenney on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 11:21:25 AM PDT

  •  Not that simple

    Past elections show older less well-educated whites will trend towards Clinton, unless they can be persuaded otherwise through strong campaigning.

    Latinos may be up in the air because most Latinos in PA. don't relate to Mexican immigration issues.

    African-Americans can have vastly different impacts depending upon their turnout, which varies greatly from election to election.

    by JPZenger on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 11:23:52 AM PDT

    •  Clarification

      My comment was not a response to your post, Mr. Kenney.  

      by JPZenger on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 11:25:20 AM PDT

    •  In terms of African Americans

      The problem is that they're very concentrated in only a few districts - the first and second have lots of African Americans, and there's also a substantial population in the 14th and a small, but noticeable, one in the 17th.  But there's not really enough in the 14th or the 17th to swing any more delegates Obama's way.

      Huge Black turnout in the 1st and 2nd, though, could definitely help Obama net those extra four delegates from Philadelphia.  And that'd be absolutely necessary for Obama to have any chance of winning the state.

      by jlkenney on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 11:26:56 AM PDT

      •  Map of PA Congressional Districts

        To help people understand these issues, here is a map of PA Congressional Districts.  

        You can see how the GOP legislature gerrymandered the hell out of some of these districts.  That is why it will be particularly important to elect Dems to the legislature in time for the redistricting in 2012.

        http://www2.census.gov/...

        by JPZenger on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 11:40:01 AM PDT

•  Excellent work

  I almost totally agree.

  I'm concerned about PA-14. It has the sizable African-American population, but this is Pennsylvania's second oldest district (18% of the district is over 65, second only to PA-12, and also the second oldest district that isn't in Florida or Arizona). Pittsburgh is pretty much dominated by blue-collar Catholic retirees, most of whom still vote Democratic, and that's Clinton's core demographic.

  If Obama is going to win a 4th district somewhere, it has to be one of the ones in the Philly burbs. I just don't know which one. Demographically they're relatively similar; PA-07 has the most college grads (36%) and is more of an inner ring suburb compared with PA-06 and PA-08, so that's more likely to be where you'll find the secular creative class professionals who are Obama's key demographic. The inner, wealthy parts of PA-06 may lean Obama, but that district also wanders out into Berks County and I don't see Obama picking up too many votes there.

  At any rate, I don't know if winning a few more districts matters that much. In the grand scheme of things, he just needs to keep a lid on Clinton's numbers and keep from getting blown out in any one district.

  by Crisitunity on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:05:50 PM PDT

  •  PA-13

    Might also be a potential fourth district for Obama - inner Montgomery County and Northeast Philly, largely.

    In terms of winning districts, one issue is that a huge percentage of Pennsylvania's districts seem to be odd numbered.  Bare majorities in a lot of districts will net Clinton a lot of delegates.

    And I think if he loses Pennsylvania, the Democratic Party is in deep shit going forwards - Clinton's already almost fatally weakened, but if Obama loses Pennsylvania, he's going to seriously need to win almost all of the remaining contests to not also be limping into the convention.  He could very well be in a position where he maintains a significant portion of the pledged delegate lead he won in February, but hasn't actually won very much since - potentially, he could maintain most of his pledged delegate lead without winning more than a couple of the remaining contests.  This is very worrisome.

    by jlkenney on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 01:00:19 PM PDT

    •  I originally thought

      PA-13 would be his best suburban district, since it's much more Democratic-leaning than the 6th, 7th, or 8th, but then changed my mind, as measures like PVI haven't had any predictive value for how Clinton and Obama split. It's more blue-collar white ethnic and less college-educated than the 6th, 7th, or 8th (mostly because of its NE Philly portion). (I was also going to say that the 13th has a significant Jewish population in the suburbs, which is another big demographic for Clinton, but upon looking at the map with a magnifying glass, it looks like Cheltenham Township is in the 2nd.)

      More generally, I think he'll win the majority of the remaining contests, including North Carolina, which is legitimately a 'big' state. But, it's true, the overarching media narrative doesn't bother much with subtleties like district-level delegate counts.

      by Crisitunity on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 01:21:31 PM PDT

      •  It looks to me

        as though Republican gerrymandering has made all of the Philly suburban districts look relatively unfavorable to Obama - the entire African American population of Philly and its suburbs lives in Brady and Fattah's districts, and the other districts are basically lilly white.  The potentially more favorable to Obama well off inner suburbs are split up and either gerrymandered into Fattah's district, or combined with unfavorable outer suburban/urban ethnic populations, as in the 6th and 13th.  The 7th seems like Obama's best possibility, I guess.

        by jlkenney on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 01:34:25 PM PDT

    •  I figure differently.

      He could very well be in a position where he maintains a significant portion of the pledged delegate lead he won in February, but hasn't actually won very much since - potentially, he could maintain most of his pledged delegate lead without winning more than a couple of the remaining contests.

      There are 16 contests after February. Obama has already won Vermont, Texas, Wyoming and Mississippi. He will probably win North Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota and Montana. He has a shot at Indiana and maybe Guam. That's at least 8, and as many as 10 wins, far more than "a couple.'

      by Leovigild on Wed Mar 12, 2008 at 12:50:10 PM PDT

•  One potential positive for Obama

  in my state is that he has 5 weeks to campaign his heart out here.  After Mississippi, he can come here and try to sell his message to the people of this state.  It will be like Iowa on a larger scale.  

  He needs to go to the rust belt and Appalachia and listen to the people there, as well as in the Philly and Pitt suburbs.  

  Obama is probably not going to win my state.  But if he can get within 5%,

  One thing, this is the time for mass voter registration in PA.  Tell independents and Republicans who are pro-Obama that they must change their registration to Democratic before March 23 if they want to participate in the Dem primary!

  If I were Obama, I would run a few ads reminding people about voter registration.  

  by IhateBush on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:56:41 PM PDT

  •  Lots of time...

    Anything can happen.  Obama was down about ten points last I saw, but presumably Clinton's going to get a considerable bounce out of her victories last night - I'd imagine Obama's going into this down about 17 points.  That's going to lessen as he campaigns, but it's still a very long way to go, and who knows what will happen.

    I fear he's going to have to start hitting Clinton a bit harder and more directly than he has been if he wants a chance to win Pennsylvania.

    by jlkenney on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 01:04:51 PM PDT

    •  Quinnipac had him down 6

      Rasmussen had him down 4, but I agree that Clinton will get a decent bounce out yesterday.  

      by IhateBush on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 01:06:04 PM PDT

•  Further thoughts on the Philly suburbs

  Some further thoughts on Philly and its suburbs, for better dissecting.

  CD 1
  Delaware County - Chester, Eddystone, Darby, Yeadon, Colwyn, Tinicum.

  Philadelphia County - Southwest Philadelphia; far West Philadelphia, including the area around St. Joseph's University; the uninhabited industrial area in deep south Philly; South Philadelphia east of Broad Street; Center City east of Broad Street; North Philadelphia east of Broad Street, as far north as East Olney Avenue; Kensington; parts of Lower Northeast Philadelphia

  CD 2

  Montgomery County - Cheltenham, Wyncote

  Philadelphia County - most of West Philadelphia; South Philadelphia west of Broad Street; Center City west of Broad Street; North Philadelphia west of Broad Street; most of Northwest Philadelphia; Olney.

  CD 6

  Chester County - Coatesville, South Coatesville, Atglen, Caln, Thorndale, Downingtown, Phoenixville, Paoli, Elverson, Honey Brook, Spring City, South Pottstown, Exton

  Montgomery County - Pottstown, Limerick, Collegeville, Skippack, Worcester, East Norriton, Norristown, Ardmore, Bryn Mawr, Lower Merion, Narberth, Penn Wynne, Bala Cynwyd

  Berks County - outer parts of Reading, Cumru, New Morgan, Bally, Amity Gardens, Wyomissing, West Reading, Kenhorst, Birdsboro, Topton

  Lehigh County - a tiny part

  CD 7

  Chester County - part of West Chester, West Goshen, Berwyn, Malvern

  Delaware County - Sharon Hill, Upper Darby, Drexel Hill, Lansdowne, East Lansdowne, Clifton Heights, Springfield, Aldan, Glenolden, Folcroft, Norwood, Haverford, Broomall, Radnor, Marple, Swarthmore, Media, Woodlyn, Folsom, Brookhaven, Parkside, Rose Valley, Lima, Chester Heights, Chadds Ford

  Montgomery County - Conshohocken, West Conshohocken, King of Prussia, West Norriton, Audubon, Eagleville, Evansburg, Royersburg

  CD 8

  Bucks County - all

  Philadelphia County - small portions of the very far Northeast

  CD 13

  Philadelphia County - most of the Far Northeast, parts of the Lower Northeast.  

  Montgomery County - Jenkintown, Abington, Bryn Athyn, Willow Grove, Hatboro, Glenside, Flourtown, Plymouth Meeting, Whitemarsh, Ambler, Horsham, North Wales, Lansdale, Montgomeryville, Hatfield, Harleysville, Salford, New Hanover, Green Lane.

  CD 15

  Lehigh County - virtually all

  Northampton County - virtually all

  Montgomery County - Pottsgrove, Halfway House, Stowe, Sanatoga, Gilbertsville, East Greenville, Pennsburg, Red Hill, Franconia, Telford, Souderton

  Berks County - a few small connective bits.

  CD 16

  Lancaster County - all

  Berks county - a small little arm that includes most of central Reading

  Chester County - the whole southwestern part, plus an arm reaching up to part of West Chester

  Wow...Gerrymandered.

  This can perhaps be better analyzed by someone more familiar with the differences among specific Philly suburbs than me.

  by jlkenney on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 02:48:51 PM PDT

  •  Place names vs. municipalities

    Guessing that you're doing this from a map that shows place names instead of actual municipalities. Not sure whether that's important in the long run, but I can clarify for the Montco towns in the 7th CD:

    Conshohocken
    West Conshohocken
    Upper Merion
    West Norriton
    Lower Providence
    Upper Providence
    Bridgeport
    Royersford

    Place names tend to cause confusion in PA (and most states, I'm sure). I blame the post office, which names its POs and their ZIP codes after place names that run roughshod over political borders.

    Hence, someone who lives in Lower Providence in the 7th Congressional district in PA could have a mailing address in Collegeville, which is in the 6th CD. It causes endless questions from casual voters.

    by Montco PA Dem on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 11:47:24 AM PDT