Strategy for Obama

Some basics: Hillary cannot win on pledged delegates. She cannot even come close. My own calculations say that even if she gets a uniform 25% +/- .1% lead, she only closes the >160-delegate gap (conservative numbers after yesterday) by 124 (an extra delegate in all the 5-or-more delegate races and in half of the 4-delegate ones).

She can, however, win. If she convinces the superdelegates to break for her, or even gets Florida seated (Michigan is IMO impossible), she can take an average 10-point victory (which is not at all implausible, if the momentum shifts) and close the gap with superdelegates. Her current super- lead is around 50, that could easily grow to 75  or more if the remaining supers broke in the same proportions. This is not just practice, it is serious.

What are Obama's strategies?

The first issue is the superdelegates. So far, he has taken the semi-high road here; while definitely joining battle, he's tried to keep them out of the equation by talking about the will of the voters instead of fighting dirty for every last super. Now that it is clear that this is where he can lose the fight, I think he has to stop this, and fight for keeps. He should make it clear that he is taking names, since no-one doubts that Clinton is. Make the argument about his coattails, but make it Chicago-style: a nearly-explicit quid-pro-quo about campaign help later.

The second issue is going negative. I'm not going to pretend he hasn't gone negative so far, but he has done so far less than most, and he has stayed completely away from the Clinton history. If he keeps it up, he may be perceived as trying to coast in to home, which would be bad for a momentum-based candidacy...

What the hell am I saying? I have turned into a *&$$% horse-race pundit. Enough of the pontificating. Here's what I want from Obama, and I think it will help him win.

Don't go negative any more than he has been.

Satisfy the media's need for a storyline by picking an issue that has been quietly "his" and getting loud. What better issue than Bush accountability (FISA, contempt, etc.)? It would show courage, it would appeal to Democrats and independents, it would show adaptability yet constancy, and it would be an attack on McCain.

•  tips for battling Bush. n/t

  by homunq on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 06:54:12 AM PDT

  •  aqree on pounding a single issue

    bringing attention to it.

    Also he should show superdelegates and voters that he will work to build the party

    by Mr Bula on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 07:01:02 AM PDT

•  Everyone remember

  Whatever delegate gains she made yesterday were minimal. He's still ~150 ahead, and will win Wyoming on Saturday and Mississippi on Tuesday (you'll notice Clinton people don't even mention these two states...they are focused solely on Pennsylvania).

  by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 06:57:00 AM PDT

•  the superdelegates are mostly politicians

  they don't want to pick the losing candidate in the interest of preserving their own political careers.  They will wait until more states have voted.  Twelve states have not voted yet, including Pennsylvania (another important one), and then there is Michigan and Florida (important states, maybe they will re-do their primaries).

  Last nights results will give the superdelegates pause. Nothing more, nothing less.

  The superdelegates should not exist.  But then neither should gerrymandered congressional districts, arcane rules for assigning delegates (like the Texas "primacaucus"), caucuses in general because they have relatively few participants and are not very representative of the population, and finally the infamous Electoral College.

  It is funny how Obamamaniacs trumpet the caucus "wins" (such as Texas last night), yet howl at the thought of superdelegates giving the nomination to Hillary.

  The whole system is undemocratic, not just the superdelegates. But it isn;t going to change before November.

  by libertyisliberal on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 07:01:25 AM PDT

•  Obama, don't go negative

  in a being viscious contest, the winner will be HRC

  by Mr Bula on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 07:01:30 AM PDT

•  Here's the thing.

  It's cool to read the suggested strategies and to wonder what's next.

  And, if I were a Hillary supporter, I'd figure that there are still strategies to be considered and made by the campaign, given their "flail around and try to figure something out to stem the flow of blood" approach since early February.

  But I am completely, 100% confident that the Obama campaign has a strategy.  And not only that, they have a couple of them, to give them enough options to address changing conditions.

  That's part of being presidential.  And that's a part of why I support Senator Obama.

  by sheddhead on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 07:01:53 AM PDT

•  I voted economic populism, but neg. is a must

  I'll always vote for the populism option.  

  But he needs to hit her hard - and to his credit he's doing just that this morning.

  by slaney black on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 07:02:19 AM PDT

•  I am a Obama Texas delegate!

  I'm not for sure what the next level I will go to will be, but I was signed up last night as a delegate. Here I thought after being up there from 7am to 10:30pm I it was over.

  by AHiddenSaint on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 07:10:11 AM PDT

•  It's time for the Clinton Kitchen sink!

  It's time to throw the kitchen sink at Hillary!

  Does she really have room to talk about Rezko in light of her own sham land dealings?  

  Does Hillary really have what it takes to take a phone call at 3am in a time of crisis?

  What's behind her income taxes that she keeps withholding?  

  by IowaCubs on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 07:11:56 AM PDT