One lost weekend changed everything (w/poll)

Hey, I am a huge Obama supporter, so don't get me wrong, but he is on the ropes big time, regardless of the delgate talk here.
If Obama had slammed Clinton this weekend, instead of allowing himself to get slammed, this race would be over this morning. The “50 pocket super delegates” would have announced, and that would have been that. He had Texas in the bag, and Ohio within 2 points.

He had a lousy weekend, allowed himself to be manipulated. He should have gone after Hillary at the debate last Thursday.
If he had won the Texas popular vote, this would be over, notwithstanding that the delegate total would have not been that different.
Now, the supers will be “on ice” for quite a while. And don’t count Wyoming as a given. They read the papers. Obama lost big time yesterday among the big swing voters this cycle: white men. They ARE the electorate in Wyoming, so if he can’t win them there, he is in big trouble. Mississippi is unimportant in the national dialogue, since it is a 55% black democratic electorate. He needs to do well among whites there as well, or the press and Clinton will spin the victory as meaningless.
Obama needs to go after her, like he did in South Carolina. Not only do we need a fighter, but we need him to prove why he should be POTUS.
Mark my words, what happened last night was a game changer. If the dynamic does not change, then Obama is in real trouble. His lead in the tracking polls has vanished; so will his edge over McCain vis a vis Clinton.
And we are in for a redo of Florida and Michigan. He now needs wins there (yes both of them), or he loses the nomination. The situation is dire. And all because of one lost weekend. That’s politics.

•  Tips and flames?

  by daninoah on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 05:57:51 AM PDT

  •  momentum hasn't decided only single

    primary this year and I refuse to believe that this will change now only because the media is talking about it once again! The delegates are the hard facts and all that matters in the end.

    by marcoto on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 06:04:18 AM PDT

  •  The math doesn't favor Hillary, period

    He doesn't need to "win" FL and MI do-overs (and he would likely win MI); unless Hillary wins in landslides in both states, she can chip away at his lead, but not outright eliminate it.

    by Samer on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 06:09:16 AM PDT

  •  On the ropes?

    No he isn't.

    Clinton has bragging rights and negative campaigning. Obama has delegates and GOTV. Considering what Texas and Ohio were supposed to be, he did very well. Even though people like Kos did a terrible job of managing expectations.

    If Obama wins Wyoming by less than 20 points, THEN he's in trouble. But yesterday is within acceptable limits for him.

    by maxomai on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 06:09:43 AM PDT

•  Take the high road but ramp up the criticism

  Take out ads about hiding her tax returns.

  Take out ads criticising Kyl-Lieberman vote.

  Take out ads criticising cluster bombing vote.

  Take out ads criticising her experience (not judgement only) and management skills - mismanagement of health plan, mismanagement of campaign ('if she can't handle a $170 million budget how can she handle the $3 trillion federal budget?')

  by jeroly on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 06:07:42 AM PDT

•  Nothing has changed.

  The MSMs are unreliable don't listen to them. They are Clintons' spinsters. Clinton gained nothing last night besides media hoopla. When all is said and done she is still behind Obama by 100+ delegates. Let her spin till Bill yell Monica Lewinsky.  

  by coolheaded on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 06:13:17 AM PDT