AK-Sen poll: Begich and Stevens deadlocked

Rasmussen. 4/7. Likely voters. MoE 4.5%

Stevens (R) 46  
Begich (D) 45

Since Begich's entry into the race, this has been considered a tossup, and this latest poll would seem to confirm that belief.

The more you look at these numbers, though, the darker things look for Ted Stevens, a man once considered politically invulnerable in Alaska.

Normally, a long-serving incumbent can count on unified support from his own party while picking up some support from the opposing party. However, Stevens is supported by just 71% of GOP voters while Begich attracts 78% of Democrats. Begich leads by 22 percentage points among unaffiliated voters.

Stevens is viewed favorably by 50% of the state’s voters while 47% have an unfavorable opinion. Begich earns favorable reviews from 56% while just 35% have an unfavorable opinion.

Among unaffiliated voters, Begich is viewed favorably by 66%, Stevens by 42%.

If Begich can maintain that kind of lead among independents, he'll be in an excellent position going forward.

Race tracker wiki: AK-Sen

•  Stevens can leave the Senate via

  a series of tubes.

  by Reckoner on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 02:41:04 PM PDT

  •  You're reminding me of...

    the opening scenes of an old James Bond movie, The Living Daylights.

    by Greasy Grant on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 02:48:11 PM PDT

•  Obama will have to campaign in

  Alaska now with Alaska moving into tossup category, so that should provide a boost for Begich, one would think.

  by jeepdad on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 02:43:04 PM PDT

  •  He sure as hell can afford it.

    Plus, let's not forget that Alaska was expected to be the Democratic state when it came into the Union, while Hawaii was expected to be Republican.  It can be won.

    by Pragmaticus on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 02:44:46 PM PDT

    •  LOL, that's true

      Upon gaining statehood in 1959, Alaska was run by the Democrats and Hawaii by the Republicans. They were both actually very, very close in both 1960 and 1968. Only in the late '70s and early '80s did Hawaii become known as solidly Democratic and Alaska as solidly Republican.

      by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 03:13:59 PM PDT

  •  Alaska for Obama?

    Well, possibly -- no Democrat has ever really tried to win Alaska in a coherent manner. Alaskan politics are very curious, and difficult for outsiders to predict. Heck, they're difficult for insiders to predict:
    
    * Alaska does not have much respect for either national party. As of March 4th, Alaskans were registered 25% Republican, 15% Democratic, and a whopping 53% registered as Nonpartisan/Undeclared.
    
    * Also, coattails can be dangerous in Alaska. The death-knell for any Alaskan politician is strong support from 'Outside' interests. There's a strong distrust of all national politicians, and with good reason -- odds are, they're not making a decision with Alaska's interests in mind. The largest third party in the state, the Alaskan Independence Party, advocates a vote on secession. Their founder once famously said "I'm an Alaskan, not an American. I've got no use for America or her damned institutions."
    
    * Alaska is a very, very libertarian state. Alaskans generally believe that they see very little of the benefits of federal taxes, and their politicians have an obligation to 'rescue' as much money for the state as they can. This is why Young, Stevens and Murkowski were so popular, and that's also why that support's waning in a Democratically-controlled Congress.

    by NYC Alaskan on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 03:35:27 PM PDT

    •  Nailed it on the head

      Even I, and I hate that son-of-a-bitch Stevens with a passion, know I'm going to miss his ability to bring home the bacon to Alaska. He's done a lot of good things for the state. Weird. I mean, if Begich beats him, which I am starting to think might be possible. Obama win Alaska ... hmmm. He actually seems to be pretty popular in Fairbanks, so maybe so.

      by pacotrey on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 05:14:27 PM PDT

      •  Times are changing

        Honestly, I think that a lot of old stereotypes and talking points are still hamstringing Democrats in Alaska unnecessarily.
        

        I know a lot of folks who voted for Bush in 2000 because Gore "would take away our guns." For a community focused on subsistence hunting and fishing, that's a death sentence. Of course, it's also not at all what Democrats would do.
        

        I know a lot of folks who vote for Republicans because they believe that their tax dollars have no positive effect (except "Down South") and so whomever they think will lower taxes gets their vote.
        

        There's a perfect storm here for Democrats in Alaska. There are actually brave, honest, respectable Democratic candidates. Republicans don't have a built-in pork advantage. Republicans aren't seen as more fiscally responsible (with the state or the nation). The war is not popular. And we have a charismatic presidential candidate who might actually visit Alaska and speak knowledgeably about Alaskan issues.
        

        Heck, just that last point would be a nice change...

        by NYC Alaskan on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 06:37:03 PM PDT

•  Hard to imagine

  a Senate without uncle Ted, Warner, and Byrd.  But it is time.  

  by Eiron on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 02:50:21 PM PDT

  •  Byrd? n/t

    by jalapeno on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 03:03:31 PM PDT

    •  He is fading

      Byrd, the spirit is willing, but

      by Eiron on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 03:09:36 PM PDT

      •  and? he is still an US Senator

        whereas the others will/may not be come 2009.

        by jalapeno on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 03:13:54 PM PDT

•  A campaign to Nowhere?

  If Alaska goes with a Democrat..

  We so win.

  by SecondComing on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 02:50:42 PM PDT

  •  Not if that Democrat is Begich.

    by Endangered Alaskan Dem on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 05:29:38 PM PDT

    •  Oh please

      You want to be a purity czar in Alaska???

      I'd take Joe Lieberman himself as a Democratic Senator from Alaska. And he'd be a thousand times better than Stevens.

      by AdmiralNaismith on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 05:49:52 PM PDT

      •  Depends on what you mean by "better."

        We can agree to disagree, but I am now and have always been of the opinion that if a politician is going to do something to embarrass his/her party/state/consituency, it is "better" that politician be a Republican.

        I guarantee you that Begich would be a disappointment.  Instead of gaining a seat with another "Senator-for-Life" type of person that most states have (what, after all, is the failure rate of an incumbent senator?), we would end up with this seat safely back in Republican hands in six years and it would stay that way for a long, long time.

        Tell me that would be "better."

        by Endangered Alaskan Dem on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 05:53:55 PM PDT

    •  Elaborate, please

      Why would Begich disappoint?  I was impressed with him--he had the best answer yet to the thorny ANWR question.  Rather than spouting the usual "we have to develop" or "nobody can win without supporting development" lines, he (properly, in my mind) pointed out that ANWR is an energy project, not an energy strategy--and our focus should be on the strategy.  A lot of my opposition to drilling ANWR comes from the complete lack of a coherent energy policy; if we someday have to drill in ANWR, I can accept it much better if there really is a compelling reason to do so.

      by David in AK on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 12:34:36 AM PDT

      •  As an AK'r

        I've always felt in a distinct minority by opposing the ANWR development as an Alaskan jobs initiative and not part of a national energy strategy.  I'm fairly balanced about oil and gas development, but this one in particular is a bad call...with lots of other good infrastructure projects needing to be developed first.

        by ancblu on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 12:45:02 AM PDT

        •  I agree

          I'm also an Alaskan in the minority about ANWR (i.e., I oppose it, especially if it's done simply to get our next national oil fix).

          by David in AK on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 04:32:25 PM PDT

•  dunno

  need someone that remembers recent Alaska elections, which I'm remembering as resulting in lower Democratic numbers than polls were showing.  When it comes down to the wire, people both tend to remember the pork in the pantry and get nervous about changing horses.

  If there are any Democratic candidates with coattails, that sure could help. It looks close, close enough for a real effort to swing it.  And hope Stevens continues his comedy routine in public.

  by wondering if on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 02:55:17 PM PDT

  •  coat tails all around

    Begich/Benson/Obama or Begich/Berkowitz/Obama or Obama/Begich/Berkowitz or Obama/Benson/Begich or Benson/Obama/Begich or ...  

    Door to door campaigning should be a lot of fun this year.

    by because on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 03:12:22 PM PDT

    •  uh... you forgot Jake Metcalfe

      Diane Benson is a great actress, but I can't support anyone for public office who is opposed to the First Amendment and academic freedom.  Dianne tried to get Linda McCarriston fired from UAA because she published a poem that Dianne misconstrued as being racist when it was simply opposed to sexual abuse, rape, and male domination in some Bush communities.

      I'll take a real 4th generation Alaska like Jake Metcalfe over her or that slick California carpetbagger Berkowitz any time.

      by HarpboyAK on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 07:03:31 PM PDT

      •  I didn't forget

        I like both of the Metcalfes.  My post is based on who I expect to be on the general election ticket in November.  I don't expect either Metcalfe to win their respective primaries, as much as I like and respect them both.  

        As for Diane Benson and free speech, I don't really know the whole story.  I'd be willing to hear more.  I was hoping that you would respond to Phil Munger's response to your accusation in this post on Phil's blog.  You never responded.

        by because on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 07:32:54 PM PDT

        •  Didn't know Phil had responded

          Phil and I are old friends by the way --- I was one of the first people to give him a part time job & a place to live when he first came to Alaska.

          My take on the whole incident was not just based on the stories in the Anchorage Daily News, but on some of the complaints and the hearing record at the time (I was a student at the UAS campus at the time, and followed free speech issues on other campuses).  It was my impression at the time that there was a lot of misunderstanding on the part of both parties, but I was most upset at Dianne's attempts to get a professor dismissed over what appeared to me, looking at the statements from both sides, to be a free speech issue.

          I have never talked to Dianne about it.  I know that Phil has, in part because I raised the issue with him the first time she ran.

          by HarpboyAK on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 11:43:42 PM PDT

      •  Carpetbagger?

        You actually used the word "Carpetbagger?"

        Is that going to be the basis of Jake's campaign? "The Cheechako Offensive"?

        "BE AFRAID! Berkowitz has only spent HALF his life here! He's not a REAL Alaskan!"

        How silly of you.

        Big issue, those carpetbaggers who come to Alaska in their youth and stay the rest of their lives, raise their families, and serve their communities.

        And here's a tip for you: You can be a fourth-generation Alaskan and still be an opportunist.

        by Kuparuk on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 07:36:01 PM PDT

        •  Did I ever claim to represent Jake's campaign?

          Nope.  You have a lot of nerve trying to impute my personal opinions to the candidate I support.

          And if there ever was an opportunist, it's Ethan, who moved to Alaska specifically to get involved in politics.

          I might point out that Jake's family has been involved in Alaska politics for years.  His father served in the Territorial House, and other family members have worked in policy positions for various Democratic governors.  Jake has also been active in labor unions, as counsel to the IBEW, and his sister is a union business agent.  

          He's worked a slime line, on commercial fishing boats, and in construction, in addition to being an attorney.  I think he understands a lot more about Alaska's working folks than a transplant from California.  

          Just so it's clear, these are my personal opinions and not those of anyone else, including candidates that I may choose to support.

          I'm sorry if you find that offensive, but many of us Territorials get tired of those who come here and want to Californicate Alaska.

          by HarpboyAK on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 11:53:53 PM PDT

          •  Seriously?

            And if there ever was an opportunist, it's Ethan, who moved to Alaska specifically to get involved in politics.

            If that's true, then Ethan's a masochist.

            by David in AK on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 12:38:15 AM PDT

          •  Pfft. Who said you did?

            You bet I have a lot of nerve, but that's beside the point.

            Nobody said you were Jake's campaign strategist. But it seems like there's a lot of xenophobia he can tap into, as you've exhibited.

            The old, "Californication" accusation is just silly. When did he ever work against the interests of Alaska? When and how did he work to turn Alaska in to California? Enlighten me.

            by Kuparuk on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 12:39:29 AM PDT

          •  ok HarpboyAK ...

            you are such proven old timey sourdough that my three generation AK ass just quivers in your territorial certitude.

            Berkowitz had the political courage to stand on the legislative floor and condemn the VECO-Republican corruption taking place--in real time. Your pissy little remarks embarrass me as an Alaskan that also remembers a frontier spirit based on character and not smarmy inuendo.

            Metcalf, Benson and Berkowitz are all honorable, ethical candidates who stand in distinct opposition to everything that Don Young is and represent.  You want to cast some stupid aspersion because one doesn't meet your "territorial" standard of holy Alaskan virtue--give me a freak'n break and get over yourself.  

            by ancblu on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 01:00:00 AM PDT

            •  My view

              Diane is doing a great job running against Don Young. Ethan is doing a great job running for Congress.
              I really love Diane, but there's a difference. I think Ethan's more prepared and doing more thinking about a post-Don Young world.
              That's just my opinion. Having Diane Benson in Congress wouldn't be too shabby, but I simply think Ethan is more forward-looking. He's really knowledgeable about renewable energy and carbon sequestration, for example.
              Jake has lots of strengths, but the problems I see with him are: 1. He's focused on being anti-Young rather than pro-something, and 2. He's polarizing. Republicans and many independents simply can't stand him. Perhaps not his fault, because he had to be very partisan while heading the state Democratic party, but there it is. Ethan and Diane have some fans across the D/R, liberal/conservative divides, and Ethan especially is seen as likeable and is widely respected for his smarts. When you run for statewide office, and especially when you serve in statewide office, you have to represent all the citizens, not just those who voted for you, contrary to what Don Young says.
              My general view is that every single candidate, including Parnell and LeDoux, would be a huge improvement over Don Young. That's a given. But this isn't simply a campaign against Don Young. It has to be a campaign FOR something. We also have to remember that there's a good chance Don Young won't even make it to the general election. I really believe Parnell (who is a thoroughly decent guy, though too conservative for me) will beat him in the primary. So who would be in the strongest position to run against Parnell?
              As to the "cheeckako" argument, that's just too hackneyed and old-fashioned. We need to drop it. It's actually an insult to most Alaskans, this idea that people are somehow inferior if they didn't have the good sense to be born in Alaska and have their ancestors born in Alaska.

              by mtn mama on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 12:02:51 PM PDT

              •  very good points and fair assessments n/t

                by ancblu on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 02:13:48 PM PDT

      •  there are two sides to *that* story

        The other one is that a professor took unethical liberties with confidential personal information, squawked when she was called on it, and then played the (way over the top) oppressed artist being denied her creative outlet by 'the man.'

        Diane Benson is not against the First Amendment and/or academic freedom, and she would be a far better choice than Jake. Haven't decided about Ethan, though.

        by schlock and flaws on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 11:39:10 PM PDT

  •  true but,

    the recent Alaska elections were in bad national years for Dems, not just in Alaska.  And unfortunately the Dems in Alaska fell into the same traps as the Dems across the nation (they were timid, they didn't stand up for what they believed, and they fought on Republican turf).

    That's why Begich and Berkowitz are so exciting.  They're Dems who stand up for what they know to be right and articulate exactly why.  They trust the people to be able to figure it out.

    Plus, the recent corruption in AK (with state reps going to jail for a decade or more) helps get Alaskans out of the pork barrel mindset.

    by Snuffleupagus on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 03:14:21 PM PDT

    •  Don't forget Benson!

      by pacotrey on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 05:15:54 PM PDT

•  Obama is in Alaska

  My local BHO campaign organizer/staffer told me they've had an office up there since November.

  How can anyone up there still want to vote for Mr. Series of Tubes - or is that all they have internets wise? and they don't know about all the indictments and fraud?

  by cgiselle12 on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 02:55:28 PM PDT

•  Build him a bridge to retirement... nt

  by AllanTBG on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 02:55:52 PM PDT

  •  or the penitentiary.!!!

    by tnichlsn on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 03:11:54 PM PDT

•  If we can win a Senate Seat in Alaska

  Howard Dean can officially stand at a podium and tell all the Democratic party elites who pooh-poohed the 50 state strategy or his leadership, starting with James Carville to STFU and KMA if they ever start whining about anything again.

  by LeftHandedMan on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 02:59:57 PM PDT

  •  the 50 state strategy

    is uniquely useful in Alaska.  A state that is so universally red that there are few democratic politicians at lower levels to develop campaign/staff talent.

    by Snuffleupagus on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 03:03:49 PM PDT

    •  We're working on it

      The Fairbanks North Star Borough is much more progressive than it was 5 years ago; in 2006, Fairbanks area voters elected 2 new Democrats to the state legislature, tripling our representation in Juneau.  We're looking for some candidates now to run against Mike "beat women ain't no bizness of the guvmint" Kelly, Jay "snort" Ramras, and John "jes thumpin the good book" Coghill, and for an open senate seat.

      Takers?

      by David in AK on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 12:27:05 AM PDT

  •  We've been thanking our lucky stars

    that Howard Dean pushed through his 50-state strategy.  Alaska Democrats haven't been this organized or excited in a long time, and the DNC people have helped a lot.  Thank you, Governor Dean!

    by David in AK on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 12:19:37 AM PDT

•  And Obama trailing by just 5

  Last AK poll, done by SUSA, also had Obama trailing by 5. AK as tossup would be incredible.

  by jj32 on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 03:00:45 PM PDT

•  Senate and House seat in AK ours in 08

  Begich is a great candidate and Berkowitz is the likely candidate to run against Don Young for the at large House seat.

  Click here to listen to a recent interview by Berkowitz.  In particular it's great to hear candidates in red states like Alaska take such strong well articulated stances against the war in Iraq.

  by Snuffleupagus on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 03:02:54 PM PDT

  •  and the 3 electoral votes for Obama!! n/t

    by jalapeno on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 03:04:19 PM PDT

•  Rasmussen says Stevens is helped by

  Gov. Palin's popularity. But I wonder how willing she will be to campaign for him. I think Palin has a reputation for standing up to corruption, even within her own party. And her Lt. Gov is primarying Gop Rep. Don Young.

  by jj32 on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 03:03:12 PM PDT

  •  she had

    an amazing showdown with Stevens.

    summary:  she's trying to get the AK gasline built in a way that he doesn't approve of (complicated).  And he said that she can do what she wants but her plan won't get any federal funding cause he won't support it.  Her awesome response was 'with all due respect to Senator Stevens, he's not the only Senator in DC'

    If comments like that keep coming out of her mouth I don't see how her popularity helps him, it might just hurt him.  

    by Snuffleupagus on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 03:10:15 PM PDT

    •  As a progressive, I have lots of issues

      with Palin, but I sure respect her when she lays into the old boys. I think most Alaskans agree and she's pretty golden with the popular base--such as it is.

      by ancblu on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 01:13:13 AM PDT

•  This would be huge and end another major

  embarrassment to our national reputation. What's the latest on the investigation up there?

  by tnichlsn on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 03:10:42 PM PDT

•  Man, this is a good news day for us Dems.

  First, Schaffer's meltdown in Colorado and now this. Truly, even though I live here in CO and would be euphoric to pick up a Senate seat, I'll be downright stunned with delight if we pick off Stevens.

  Now that would be sweet.

  Both would be even sweeter.

  by Pager on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 03:10:51 PM PDT

•  Obama will seal the deal

  He'll bring us big wins in the Senate, and the House.

  by THEpersonal ISpolitical on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 03:14:07 PM PDT

•  In The "Tubes" with Teddy ...

  Tubes, tubes, tangled up tubes!

  by Kdoug on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 03:16:56 PM PDT

•  I guess indictments are easier when you get them

  as a Senator.

  ::::

  by nowheredesign on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 03:18:53 PM PDT

•  We better nominate Obama

  Obama is only five points behind in Alaska while Hillary is more than 20 points behind. She will kill our chances in this race.  She needs to be dumped sooner rather than latter.

  by UpstateDem on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 03:30:21 PM PDT

•  This video clip is obligatory

  by yg17 on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 03:35:17 PM PDT

  •  Much better version...

    can be found here.  Unfortunately, it cannot be embedded here for some reason, but most other sites will allow embedding.

    by BruinKid on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 04:21:53 PM PDT

•  Begich/Stevens in Alaska

  When you look at these numbers, remember that something like 50% of the registered voters in Alaska are unaffiliated!!!

  by akmom on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 03:37:43 PM PDT

  •  A little over 50%, actually

    by Angry White Democrat on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 03:53:49 PM PDT

•  It would help Begich if Obama was on the top

  of the ticket rather than Hillary Clinton.  With Obama at the top the state is a toss up (Rasmussen puts it 48 M to 43 O), but if Hillary Clinton is at the top she may very well hurt Begich's chances (she is losing in Alaska big time to McCain accoridng to Rasmussen).

  by True Independent on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 03:50:09 PM PDT

  •  Exactly

    This is why Hillary needs to be out of this race sooner rather than later.  She doesn't care about the party, she cares about her "legacy" and her $111 million.  

    by UpstateDem on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 04:02:09 PM PDT

•  Alaska used to be

  A pretty Democratic place back in the day, heck the Gravelanche himself got elected to the Senate out of there.  But then again same could be said with Idaho and Frank Church.....

  by marcvstraianvs on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 04:04:26 PM PDT

  •  Hell most Red states used to be blue

    Most of the South, Great Plains, etc. we also democratic. During the Great Depression, the Great Plains states were the source of a lot of populism and (gasp) socialism.  I'm sure we're all familiar with "What's the Matter with Kansas."

    What I wonder/worry about is that we don't deliver in the end on a lot of these elections. Sure we'll get close (closer than we have for years), but we can't close the deal. The net result will be some small gains, but not enough to break any deadlocks or overcome the spineless members of our party. The thing is BHO is right, this is our time. This is probably the best shot we're going to have in a long time to make significant gains in the house/senate/presidency.  So, we all need to do our part to make sure I'm wrong.

    by ARP on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 04:46:07 PM PDT

•  Begich is touring

  Alaska, as he has little name recognition outside of Anchorage. Wonder what the geographic distribution of that poll was?  

  by frsbdg on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 04:41:01 PM PDT

  •  Anchorage is the key

    It has 2/3 of the state's population. He needs a big win in Anchorage, where he's very popular. If he can take Fairbanks too I think he wins.

    by pacotrey on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 05:22:53 PM PDT

•  Vote for BOB

  whether that ends up being:  Begich/Obama/Berkowitz or Begich/Obama/Benson.

  by because on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 05:32:44 PM PDT

•  Could be a sea change in Alaska

  Close races for President, Senator, at large Congressional District, control of both houses of the legislature...they couls all flip in one election, with enough sweat and good fortune.

  Just like New Hampshire in 2006, with the entire House delegation and a solid majority of the legislature in one blow.

  I say let's make it happen!

  by AdmiralNaismith on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 05:52:41 PM PDT

  •  A few convictions are helping

    The Veco scandals have taken their toll.  On the other hand, Republican Governer Sarah Palin is wildly popular across the political spectrum, and her lieutenant governor is challenging Don Young in the primary.  

    by David in AK on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 12:29:02 AM PDT

•  Obama can promise a huge boost for Alaska's

  economy by building an enormous Arctic Circle federal office complex to house all the upper-grade Bush-appointed civil service employees.

  by Ohiobama on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 06:54:09 PM PDT

•  Stevens is toast

  Begich told the audience at his "exploratory" fundraiser in Juneau a week ago that he has been surprised by the number of Republicans and conservative business folks who have donated to him.  Apparently they are just fed up with Ted and Don, and feel that they are no longer effective.

  Both have lost their core Anchorage business support, which means that they can no longer count on those deep pockets at the Petroleum Club.

  Begich has a little political baggage of his own, but so far the FBI hasn't raided his house, and his father was a very popular Congressman in Bush Alaska before his plane disappeared on a campaign trip.  The three Dems running against Young --- Berkowitz, Benson, & Metcalfe --- all have their strengths and weaknesses, but none have any of Don's very high negatives.

  For the first time since Clark Gruening ran against Frank Murkowski in 1976, Democrats finally have a reasonable expectation that we'll be able to put a Democrat in the House and the Senate.

  Those of that were here in the late 60s remember that Alaskans usually voted for Democrats, but that Wally Hickel had upset the status quo by campaigning against the slow pace of the post-statehood economy to beat Governor Bill Egan, then appointed Repug Ted Stevens to replace the very popular Democrat Bob Bartlett in the Senate when he died in office.  It's about time we got that seat back!

  Let's go out and win these seats in memory of Bob and Nick!

  by HarpboyAK on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 11:34:32 PM PDT

  •  Stevens will remain a very formidable opponent,

    even in his weakest hour.  He is not toast and neither Begich, his supporters, nor the rest of America should assume this race will be a walk.

    Don Young...I think this is the year we will thankfully say goodbye and good riddance.

    by ancblu on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 01:28:58 AM PDT

•  I think his campaign...

  is going down the tubes.

  by abraxas on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 05:39:09 AM PDT

•  I fear AK for us is like NJ for the GOP

  All year the polls seem to suggest we have a chance, and then the Republicans pull away at the end in Alaska. It seems like AK voters love to hate their Republicans the way NJ voters love to hate their Democrats--not enough to throw them out of office.

  by desmoinesdem on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 05:41:12 AM PDT