Delegate "Magic Number" Tracker 4-11-08

Here is episode 2 of the countdown to finally ending this primary, now including projected add-on delegates.

Delegate "Magic Number" Tracker
(FL and MI Excluded)

	Obama	Clinton
Current Pledged Delegates	1416	1253
Current Super Delegates	222	248
Total Delegates to Date	1638	1501
Needed for Nomination	386	523
Projected Pledged Delegates	270	296
Projected Add-On Delegates	37	25
Pelosi Club	6	-1
Total Current and Projected Delegates	1951	1821
"Magic Number"	73	203
% of Remaining SDs Needed	28.2%	78.4%

Here's the impact of the add-on delegates:  It moves Obama quite a bit closer to the goal line.  With a magic number of only 73, a strong performance in the next three contests, plus a good-size group  of superdelegates, could put this thing way mathematically.  Recall that there was a rumor that 50 super delegates were set to endorse Obama after the March 4 contests, but pulled back because of his losses.  

That said, seating FL and MI delegations based strictly on their voting contests would, at present, push Hillary into a small lead.

Delegate "Magic Number" Tracker
(FL and MI Seated - Obama Worst Case)

	Obama	Clinton
Current Pledged Delegates	1483	1431
Current Super Delegates	227	262
Total Dels. to Date	1710	1693
Needed for Nomination	498	515
Projected Pledged Delegates	270	296
Projected Add-On Delegates	37	30
Pelosi Club	6	-1
Total Current and Projected Delegates	1986	1988
"Magic Number"	222	220
% of Remaining SDs Needed	77.4%	76.7

To calculate the add-on delegates, I simply awarded all unnamed the add-ons to the winner of that state's contest.  I gave Texas to Obama due to a higher total pledged delegate count from that state.  In the FL and MI scenario, I count FL and MI add-ons for Clinton.

For further information on what this means and how it's calculated, look here.

•  Wow

  Nice Job. This thing is over.

  by B P Pgh on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 01:35:12 PM PDT

•  When you count MI and FLA

  how do you arrive at 1483 pledged delegates for Obama?  (that is only a net gain of 67 from 1416)

  by RokkiBlueboa on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 01:41:30 PM PDT

  •  It's the most conservative case --

    not including any of the MI 55.

    by Oaktown Dad on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 01:46:26 PM PDT

    •  Also

      If the delegates are seated as such - 73 for Hillary, 55 for Uncommitted - surely at least a few of the Uncommitteds will break for Obama. Including me, if I'm elected Delegate (Yes, I am running!).

      Thus putting Obama even closer.

      A proposal I heard to seat Michigan's delegates woukld be to slit them 64-64, putting Clinton back by nine and bringing Obama within 158.

      by ScottyUrb on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 01:50:59 PM PDT

    •  good to look at

      Sure beats more of those mystifying Pennsylvania poll numbers.

      by louisev on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 02:33:29 PM PDT

•  Please define "magic number"

  And please add that definition to the intro of your diary.
  
  
  thanks
  :)
  
  
  `````
  peace
  
  

  by peace voter on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 01:42:01 PM PDT

  •  Its the number of additional delegates

    over and above currently projected based on elections and add-ons to capture the nomination.

    Detail added.

    by Oaktown Dad on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 01:46:03 PM PDT

•  I think you might want to take down the

  whole Michigan/Florida thing as that matter appears that it will not be resolved by simply seating the states according to the results of the beauty contest in January.  Rather, those states will be seated by a compromise (meaning that HRC will not get them as done in Jan), hence the latest plan to seat them with only half the delegates originally allocated with HRC netting only 6 delegates.

  by True Independent on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 01:51:25 PM PDT

•  Following up on the remaining Superdelegates..

  I took my own look:

  69 Add-ons - 26 from states Sen. Clinton won (including NV and TX), 31 from states Sen. Obama won, and 12 from states yet to vote.  (The 6 add-ons now endorsing Obama came from "his" states, with 2 undeclared.  The one add-on endorsing Clinton came from "her" state, with 3 undeclared.)

  103 Elected Officials - 39 from Clinton states, 35 from Obama states, 29 from states yet to vote.

  Which leaves 152 DNC/Party Officials that figures to be the pool most likely to be swayed.

  by Bull Schmitt on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 01:52:42 PM PDT

•  Like your chart but...

  I too think including Fl and MI just confuses.  It the are seated, I'm sure it will be 50/50 and thus absolutely no difference in the end.

  by ajleiker on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 01:56:59 PM PDT

•  Including MI and FL is helpful

  THIS is the insane number that the Clinton folks are looking at when they say the election is "very close."  I never saw this number before.

  by notksanymore on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 02:39:08 PM PDT

•  Thanks for including add-ons

  Together with his pledged delegates and committed supers, Obama will pass 2024 total delegates by June.  At that point, the ONLY way Clinton could win is by forcing a favorable seating of Michigan and Florida.

  by Skaje on Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 03:10:59 PM PDT