Rasmussen: Mixed Bag for Obama

First the good news.  Obama is back on top of Clinton by 9 points in the daily tracker, according to Rasmussen.

Obama now leads Clinton by 50 - 41, which comes close to his peak last week.  Since Rasmussen averages over 4 days, last Thursday's numbers have fallen off - so these numbers include all of the post 'bittergate' polling.

Obama now also is only three points behind McCain, 47-43.  And his favorability ratings are improving.

The bad news and my 1/500 of a sawbuck after the break.

The bad news is that, according to Rasmussen, Obama has lost ground to Clinton in PA.  Obama now loses by 9 points, instead of the 6 last week.

It seems to me that the whole 'bittergate' tempest may be hurting Clinton nationally, especially among so-called 'Democrats'.  Or it could just be that Democrats are tired of this primary season, realize that the longer it drags on it helps McCain and are ready for this thing to be over.  Or it could be a combination of both.

However, 'bittergate' may resonate somewhat with the folks in PA and IN, at least initially.  Or it could be that that the undecided are just breaking for Hillary.  It is really hard to tell at this point.

•  Charity line...

  Go Lakers!

  by RichM on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 08:53:23 AM PDT

  •  A possible explanation for the differences in PA

    from the national polls is HRC is running a lot of anti-Obama negative ads there, has the local Dem political machinery actively spinning it her way,  and they may take it more personally.

    You can be sure the right wing is keeping copies of all of her stuff and will fling it right back at us in the fall.

    So it will end up being more damaging nationally in the long term than we see here.

    Which is yet another reason why I support the pro-Obama supers and pro-unity Dems announcing for Obama now, not after ID and NC or in June.  I see no reason to risk further damage to our party and fall election chances for the symbollic value of running through all the primaries.  

    HRC started with 100 plus supers endorsing so the assertion that pro-Obama supers not would be overriding the electorate is bogus, IMO.

    Also, let's not forget that all the money, time, attention, and other resources would be much better spent going after McCain and supporting worthy downticket Dems.

    Can anyone beleive now there is any chance at all the supers could pull a backdoor maneuver to give the nomination to HRC over Obama for any reason what-so-ever without destroying the party?  

    So why accumulate these negatives.  Supers stand up and have the courage to do the right thing for our party and country.  

    Endorse Obama Now!  

    by HoundDog on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:30:16 AM PDT

•  You beat me!:)

  But I'm doing a whole thread on the gallup + rasmussen, so I'll keep mine up I guess...

  by Mark Warner is God on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 08:55:07 AM PDT

•  I'm as bitter as belgian endive n/t

  by Pangloss on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 08:58:17 AM PDT

  •  Oh god...

    That is the coup d'grace.  I've been to Belgium many times and I love their food dearly.  But they consider endive a delicacy and I can't stand the stuff.

    by RichM on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:01:23 AM PDT

•  All that nonsense for 3 little polling points

  Hours of news coverage for 3 little polling points.

  Print and internet articles everywhere for 3 little polling points.

  One little, two little, three little polling points.
  Hillary's still going to lose.

  by blueocean on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:00:33 AM PDT

•  Heck, I'll take a 9 point loss in PA;

  as long as he can keep it below a 10 point loss, it's a win.  Plus, there's a debate and a week to go; miracles can happen!

  by PittsburghPete on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:00:50 AM PDT

•  No bad news. I thought Rasmussen's poll last week

  was low on PA.  To me the race has always been somewhere between 5 and 10 points, but closer to 10 than 5.  Just look at the Ohio results.  If she wins by less than 10 points, it's  a victory for Obama.

  btw - this has been diaried by several already today.

  by ecostar on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:01:09 AM PDT

•  Nationally, Obama's one point off his

  recent high of 51; Clinton is is one point off her recent low of 40. She was leading by one point 3 days ago.

  The movement in favorable/unfavorable ratings is interesting too. Clinton's at 43/54, one point in each category off her worst. Obama is stablizing at 49/49.

  I suppose that's what an overplayed hand might look like.

  by insects8mybrain on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:01:10 AM PDT

•  IIRC, when Air America had a program called

  Morning Sedition with Lizz Winstead and Rachel Maddow, someone or something (sorry, I forgot) was described as being as "bitter as a lemon in Bea Arthur's vagina."  Your poll question and anwers brought back that bitter memory, thank you very much ;-)

  by Greasy Grant on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:04:03 AM PDT

•  9 point loss passes gut check

  I think moving from 6 to 9 points is nothing but margin of error in the polling.  The thing I love best is that the bitter boomarang is coming back to Clinton now.  Hard to call people elite when Clinton has had a security detail for 20 years and would not know what to do in a Penn Wal-Mart. (no busting Wal-Mart unions does not count)

  by dan667 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:10:25 AM PDT

  •  ha! had to rec!

    by karanja on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:23:00 AM PDT

•  Plenty of close polls...

  with a debate tomorrow and a late flurry of campaigning, Obama will do just fine in PA.

  I think the latest stunt by HRC shows she's very worried about PA. Just like any good Republican would do, she's trying to polarize the electorate. Same old 'bitter' politics.

  by First Amendment on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:17:31 AM PDT

•  9 points

  9 points behind isn't great.
  OTOH,if Obama finishes 9 points behind in PA, all he'll have to do for the rest of the race in order to get to Denver with more elected delegates is to keep his name on the ballot.

  I'm not recommending this as a tactic, but Clinton has to sweep all three of PA, NC, and IN by large margins to look possible in Denvver.

  by Frank Palmer on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:30:34 AM PDT

•  I'm as bitter as alum n/t

  by Pangloss on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:39:08 AM PDT

•  Quin PAsays no change, and it is a very good poll

  so I would not read much into a couple point change in Ras's PA poll, probably statistical noise.

  by True Independent on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:51:14 AM PDT

•  love bitter-sweet dark chocolate w/ orange

  why is that not there - at least dark chocolate bitter-sweet?! Don't like your poll, now that I think about it, its almost as flawed as ARG, and thats saying a lot! Shame on you! I am proud to be sitting here commenting in your diary... god wake me up when Obama is POTUS, and we have sense back in the WH!

  by karanja on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:20:40 AM PDT

  •  I am...

    Virtually sending you chocolate right now.  Feel better?

    by RichM on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:32:05 PM PDT