Gallup...largest lead yet! HRC lowest level yet O-51,HRC-40

biggest lead thus far, still nothing showing nationally from "bittergate".  Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC says it shows a clear tread while this PA congressman, Joe Sestak, a Clinton super is saying that poll is meaningless and that Obama should win PA easily because of all of the money spent, he is also saying that Clinton WILL win this election and be the general election candidate for the democrats.

I hope there is a youtube of this part, this guy is in complete denial! It almost seems like he has no clue that February happened...

Gallup article after the jump

Gallup poll for April 15

Gallup Daily: Obama 51%, Clinton 40%
Both Democratic candidates have 46% to 44% margins over McCain

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama is maintaining his lead over Hillary Clinton among Democrats nationally in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking, with a 51% to 40% margin in the April 12-14 average.

The current 11 percentage point lead is the largest for Obama this year, and marks the ninth consecutive day in which Obama has led Clinton by a statistically significant margin. The current Gallup Poll Daily tracking average is based on interviewing conducted Saturday, Sunday and Monday -- after the initial reports of Obama's controversial remarks about "bitter" small-town residents began to be reported in the news media.

The two candidates will hold a nationally televised debate in Philadelphia on Wednesday night, and it is possible that this confrontation -- plus any delayed impact of Obama's controversial remarks -- may affect Democratic voters' perceptions in the days to come. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here.)

In general election trial heat match ups, both Democratic candidates now have identical, and slight, 46% to 44% margins over presumptive Republican nominee John McCain. -- Frank Newport

It is also the lowest HRC has been since January

•  tips?

  and other stuff?

  by Cronk on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:06:19 AM PDT

  •  feel free to update with your own thoughts

    It's nice to be first, but it's nicer to have something to say!

    Oh and - YAY DEMOCRATS!  Let's get Hillary below 40% tomorrow!!!

    by jakester on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:08:26 AM PDT

    •  I will...

      give me a second

      by Cronk on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:09:17 AM PDT

      •  Point out this is Hillary @ 40% for first time

        This is the lowest showing of Hillary's national support ever. If she plays her cards wrong this week, she could fall through that 40% Floor that she's had. Look at the trend, she's at her lowest level all year.

        by kubla000 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:14:34 AM PDT

        •  I am trying to add the images...

          won't let me image link from gallup, I'll keep working on it

          by Cronk on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:17:27 AM PDT

          •  here are imageshack-hosted versions

            recent track
            

            since january

            

            I think Clinton at new lowest level of support is a story here that hasn't been covered in the media. ought to be put in the title, probably.

            by taricha on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:27:56 AM PDT

        •  Clinton support continues to erode

          It hit 41% for the first time (post-Edwards) last week, and now has hit and remained at 40% - another new low for her.
          As a percentage of the Obama-Clinton vote, her support is at an all-time low, and Obama's is at (within 1 point) of an all-time high.

          by taricha on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:19:06 AM PDT

      •  excellent! thanks

        Hey, off topic, but can we please get someone up to Westchester to triple check which church Hillary Clinton went to on Easter?  I think it would be really nice to interview that pastor and find out what it was like to have the former First Lady (and I presume, her husband, plus the Secret Service) in attendance; what he preached about; and what he thinks about issues of faith and politics.

        I mean, it's weird that she didn't choose to mention it back then (when Rev. Wright was all over the airwaves and faith was the #1 issue we were talking about), and that not one reporter was there to witness it.  But obviously it happened, since Hillary Clinton said it did.

        Anyway, I think it would make for a nice story.  Any takers?

        by jakester on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:15:44 AM PDT

        •  Actually, I called some churches up in

          Westchester myself. A guy at Mount Kisco Methodist Church told me she did attend church there on Easter. But I didn't speak to the pastor himself. I would not rely on this one guy who happened to answer the phone.

          I am not sure I believe him. I can't believe that during the height of the controversy, and with Obama being criticized for not attending church on Easter while in the Virgin Islands, that word wouldn't have leaked out about her attendance somehow.

          Anyone else want to do some sleuthing on this ?

          by Earl3 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:20:13 AM PDT

          •  okay good

            It sounds legit to me - someone on the Obama website said the same thing.  The whole thing just seemed so odd!  

            by jakester on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:27:24 AM PDT

    •  Hold... Hold... Hold...

      Wait for it...

      Wednesday's Gallup will be the grail.  It will reflect the effect of Friday's comments, and responses.  This is with a baseline of last Friday's poll, the zero hour.

      Thirsday's and Friday's will show the staying power of the shift, or non-shift, whatever it may be.

      Look for Pennsylvania's ultimate shift to parallel the national shift, somewhere between point-for-point and 3 to 2.  So if the Friday Gallup is four points better for Obama, the PA shift will be 4-6 points on election day, from last Friday's averages (somewhere around 7.5%); in this example Clinton would eek out between 1-3% margins.

      by MooseHB on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:20:19 AM PDT

      •  ?

        Look for Pennsylvania's ultimate shift to parallel the national shift, somewhere between point-for-point and 3 to 2.

        Why would you expect that?

        by Drew J Jones on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:32:34 AM PDT

  •  No tips

    for a plagiarizing non-diary

    by vesuvius on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:08:42 AM PDT

    •  Sirens blaring,

      here come the Diary Police! Run!

      by 1 20 2009 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:12:25 AM PDT

      •  Yes, how dare they

        request that all diaries meet some basic content standard.

        by smash artist on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:17:10 AM PDT

        •  The thing is

          with breaking news, it is best reported quickly. So it should begin with some sort of cut and paste job. Then they can go back and amend with content. Give people 20 minutes to add some content. If they don't, then you you can ride around in your Diary Police tank helmet.

          by 1 20 2009 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:19:49 AM PDT

          •  fixed...

            thanks for the patience in uploading the images and commentary

            by Cronk on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:27:09 AM PDT

    •  no effing links either!

      by wuod kwatch on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:15:30 AM PDT

  •  Largest Combined lead in Gallup + Rasmussen Ever!

    10 Points: O 50.5 C 40.5

    

    Highest before that was 9.5 points.

    by ARingMD2B on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:39:03 AM PDT

•  But I thought that Hillary was more electible!

  If I say it enough times eventually it will come true right?  Or is that wishing on a star?  I can never remember.

  by Mickey Thunder on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:07:55 AM PDT

  •  She's the only one

    who can win the big states....

    (sigh)....

    by wildcat6 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:08:47 AM PDT

•  Bitter-gate doing damage to Obama

  my foot. Take this poll MSM pundits and shove it up your a**.

  by joy sinha on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:08:22 AM PDT

  •  It's totally over n/t

    by theran on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:08:46 AM PDT

•  Obama should drop out

  He's dead in the water and sinking fast.

  

  by theran on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:08:27 AM PDT

  •  I wouldn't say he's sinking 'fast'

    but if he continues speaking off the cuff in lieu of reciting prepared speeches, he'll sink fast enough.

    by phoenixdreamz on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:11:40 AM PDT

    •  Yeah, he's fucking doomed

      I mean imagine somebody treating voters like adults and trying to explain challenges as he sees them.  It's fucking poison.  Using a bunch of Republican talking points and feeding everybody some kind of Normal Rockwell BS about how awesome the rural economy is doesn't make a candidate look small and petty at all.  

      

      by theran on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:13:57 AM PDT

      •  re

        Post O' The Day™

        by cookiesandmilk on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:25:26 AM PDT

    •  As long as he doesn't

      get caught not dodging sniper fire :-)

      by MBNYC on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:14:01 AM PDT

      •  It's been awhile

        Hope you're well and doing fine :)

        by phoenixdreamz on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:17:44 AM PDT

        •  I know :-)

          And likewise. We're all going to be fine, I hope.

          by MBNYC on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:18:58 AM PDT

    •  whatevaaaaaaa

      He speaks great off the cuff.  The guy is brilliant.  The Compassion Debate on CNN Sunday night is the perfect example.  I've got full faith in him speaking off the cuff.

      by dehydratedcracker on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:28:31 AM PDT

  •  Anyone want to argue

    that the bunny ears above HRC's head are merely a peace sign by an ardent supporter, and anti-war activist?

    by mengelhart on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:24:10 AM PDT

    •  re

      It was Jane Fonda's fingers.

      Why does Jane Fonda and Ducking Hunting Hillary hate America?!

      /snark

      by cookiesandmilk on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:26:28 AM PDT

  •  Only real elitists can afford rabbit ears.

    by JNSD on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:25:45 AM PDT

•  No matter what Obama says at the debate...

  they will find a "gaffe."

  They are in full destruction mode.

  by David Kroning on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:08:49 AM PDT

  •  No matter how well he does in the debate

    The media will ONLY focus on the bittergate exchange.  There is absolutely no disputing this.

    by 1 20 2009 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:10:58 AM PDT

    •  Honest to god...look at

      how many Kossacks agree that there is a fucking media conspiracy.

      http://www.dailykos.com/...

      by David Kroning on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:12:40 AM PDT

      •  I can agree a lot of Kossacks

        qualify as being on the "fringe." I fall in this category, so don't take this critically. It is also true that Kossacks pay attention to the news more than any other group that I can think of. I think it is pretty obvious to any observant person that the media is out to prolong this race for their own economic interests. Profit drives everything.

        by 1 20 2009 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:22:33 AM PDT

        •  No it's obvious that they're out to elect Mccain

          and destroy Obama as they were Bush over Clinton, Dole over Clinton, Bush over Kerry, Bush over Gore.

          I've had more than enough of this.

          by Parker2001 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:33:00 AM PDT

      •  Thanks for the link

        Rec'd far less than this deserves for it.

        by MooseHB on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:40:36 AM PDT

    •  I think the media is going to be distracted

      momentarily by the Pope's visit.

      by Earl3 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:22:01 AM PDT

      •  Nah, not unless ...

        the Pope has a bladder accident on Mr. Bush in front of rolling cameras.

        by Coolwateroverstones on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:18:43 AM PDT

  •  I hope you give

    yourself a break from that doom and gloom. I'm on your side here, but try to remember: $40 million in March. Ahead in the national polls. The 2006 elections. The world doesn't completely suck. Even if you are most likely right about that.

    by kitebro on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:22:08 AM PDT

  •  I don't think so.

    Every debate the two candidates have done well, and the media has (at least as far as I can recall -- haven't followed that closely) pretty much agreed.

    I think we're at the stable point. Clinton will win. By less than Ohio.

    The media will say what it will say. It's likely that some of them will swallow the Clinton line of 'Obama must win.' But I think more and more of them will come around to 'Clinton didn't have a big win. She's really behind the 8 ball now.'

    by reklemrov on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:28:59 AM PDT

  •  the point is not to avoid criticism

    the point is to be able to handle criticism.

    by geejay on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:09:21 AM PDT

•  This is what happens when you

  pursue short term gains in one state to the long term detriment of your campaign. Bye, Hillary.

  by 1 20 2009 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:09:09 AM PDT

  •  She has a pattern of being reactive rather than

    strategic.  Not a good charactoristic in a high level leader.  The highest level leader sets an umbrella for everyone else, who will have shorter time frames on smaller pieces of the puzzle.

    So the highest leader needs to embody the longest term big picture vision, with a positive, creative, and proactive stance.

    Clinton and Obama are polar opposites in this regard, which may be the most important distinction with regard to their fitness for office.

    by HoundDog on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:16:28 AM PDT

•  MSNBC, CNN, FOX, NYTIMES:

  Obama drinks your milkshake!  He drinks it down!!

  by Dartagnan on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:10:00 AM PDT

•  Bittergate was a campaign ending gaffe!

  Seriously. Making such a completely out of touch statement demonstrates a candidate who is extraordinarily out of touch with the electorate in PA and the rest of the country, and the actions and statements made since then have only made it worse. Pennsylvanians and other Americans will not elect such an obvious elitist! This will end Clinton's campaign - count on it.

  by sab39 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:10:31 AM PDT

•  This must be a...

  'bitter' pill for HRC to swallow.

  by First Amendment on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:10:40 AM PDT

  •  Hillary? Swallow?

    I don't think she knows how.

    (See: "Blue dress")

    by Coolwateroverstones on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:20:30 AM PDT

    •  ooooooooh, that's gotta hurt!!

      ouch!!

      by rapcetera on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:50:22 AM PDT

•  LOL!

  I love the picture gallup uses...Barack looks so satisfied with himself. He's saying "Take that bitter pill and shove it up your butt!"

  by jenontheshore on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:10:55 AM PDT

•  Hillary must be bitter about this

  Will she cry at the debate tomorrow? Hit the podium with her shoe? Point her finger at Obama and ask if he is now, or has he ever been, a member of the Communist party?

  by beltane on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:11:59 AM PDT

  •  Obama should bring a milkshake to the debate

    And sip it while Hillary answers questions.

    by Dartagnan on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:16:48 AM PDT

    •  Bring Two

      And say, "Let me hold this for you," and then drink it up.

      by MooseHB on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:45:14 AM PDT

    •  You guys are so damn funny!

      by PittsburghPete on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:00:50 AM PDT

    •  Hilarious. n/t

      by Drew J Jones on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:49:44 AM PDT

  •  One thing to look for is her body language.

    You can always tell how uncomfortable she is by her smile.  

    At least she won't be complaining about the media this time, and how she gets the hard questions.

    Hillary is now a parody, and so is the media.

    by kanuk on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:16:51 AM PDT

    •  Oh, don't worry, she'll complain

      After all, the media has broken away from "bitter" occasionally. They are biased against her by going to commercial breaks.

      by beltane on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:20:23 AM PDT

      •  They better NOT ask her the first

        question; in fact, I think Obama ought to request the first question so Hillary doesn't get mad.

        by PittsburghPete on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:01:29 AM PDT

    •  Some pundit described it as a "crocodile

      smile" a couple of debates ago.

      by Earl3 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:25:53 AM PDT

•  Perhaps it is the people who are intouch

  with Senator Obama and the media is out of touch with Hillary Clinton.

  by kanuk on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:14:58 AM PDT

•  The sad part about this poll

  Is that Hillary is going down more than Barack is going up.

  We should be building up our candidate, not watching another Democrat tear herself down.

  by Anarchofascist on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:15:23 AM PDT

  •  This is just too tempting a quote

    Is that Hillary is going down more than Barack is going up.

    Must. Not. Reply.

    by Dartagnan on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:18:39 AM PDT

    •  I failed.

      Lost my soul and took the bait upthread.

      Deep apologies to all readers.

      by Coolwateroverstones on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:21:49 AM PDT

  •  I am not sad, I feel vindicated by the people.

    by kanuk on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:18:49 AM PDT

•  Please provide a link

  to the gallup results.

  by smash artist on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:15:55 AM PDT

•  I love the "delayed effect" line

  As if the controversy would have more effect once it is an old story than it did when every TV channel obsessed over it

  by doriangz on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:16:54 AM PDT

•  Oh god Joe Sestak

  The man is a horrible disappointment and is clearly in the tank for HRC.  He even defending Tuzlagate.

  by Parker2001 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:18:32 AM PDT

  •  I am very disappointed in Sestak

    However he owes his former job to Bill Clinton so it's easy to understand why he feels he has to shill.

    Ever notice that with Hillary her supporters for the most part seem to owe her husband something?  Whereas with Obama, they owe him little or nothing?

    by Dartagnan on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:32:19 AM PDT

  •  he's a B.Clinton Roadie. Can't blame him...

    B. Clinton really helped to get him elected in '06

    by rapcetera on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:44:51 AM PDT

•  Impossible...the pundits told me

  he is sinking, so it must be true.

  by Progressive America on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:21:17 AM PDT

•  Hillary's divisive politics isn't working,

  and this is why.  The majority of Americans live in large cities, by shamelessly promoting herself as one of the rural people, she has just turned her back to the majority of Americans.  

  The majority of Democrats are for stronger gun controls, not more gun rights.  By aligning herself with the minority of Democrats, she has just alienated her base.

  by kanuk on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:22:26 AM PDT

•  MSM will ignore and downplay national polls

  The MSM will downplay or just ignore the National Poll numbers. For example, I can see CNN basically doing that, but at the same time play up that their, "poll of polls" for PA. is widening for Clinton.
  They are not going to keep playing up this issue and at the same time say that at least Nationally, people are not responding the way they think they are or should.

  by mdboma on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:23:05 AM PDT

  •  Nah, they just want some story, any story

    They'd be just as happy to report about Clinton's backfiring attempts as anything.  They just need to look like they're analyzing something in order to keep their jobs.

    by thezzyzx on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:50:50 AM PDT

•  *OUTRAGEOUS EXAMPLE OF MEDIA BIAS*

  OK, here's the deal.  Mccain and Obama both went to speak to the AP association or whatever yesterday.

  Anyway, Obama was greeted with a question where Bin Laden was referred to as "Obama Bin Laden." and he got no standing ovation.

  Meanwhile, Mccain got a box of doughnuts and a atanding ovation!

  Huh?? If there has ever been any doubt that the media is in the tank for the Republican National Commmittee, there is no doubt whatsoever now!

  This is outrageous.  But, of course, typical.

  The media is terrified of Obama and desperate to take him down.

  http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

  by Parker2001 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:30:59 AM PDT

•  I don't think that Dems liked

  Hillary calling another Dem an Elitist and putting down Kerry and Gore for being elitist as well.

  by Drdemocrat on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 10:32:20 AM PDT

•  Joe Sestak

  Wasn't he a netroots candidate in 2006?

  by lapis on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:06:59 AM PDT

•  I just want to see her in the 30's. Oh please.

  Just once in the 30's.  Please please please.

  by ObamaManiac2008 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:09:50 AM PDT