Poll: SD Voters Prefer Obama

A new poll conducted by Dakota Wesleyan University and published in the Sioux Falls Argus Leader shows that Obama holds a 46 to 34 lead over Hillary Clinton in the June 3 primary in South Dakota.

This is the first poll I have seen about the Democratic primary in South Dakota.

The poll of 527 North and South Dakota voters conducted from March 24 to April 3 indicated that 46 percent of South Dakota Democrats would vote for Obama in the upcoming June 3 primary, 34 percent for Clinton, and 10 percent are undecided. Of the remaining 10 percent, 6 percent said they would not vote and 4 percent said they would vote for someone else.

The poll also confirmed Obama's viability in a contest with John McCain in North Dakota, showing McCain with a 44 to 38 edge, which is within the margin of error. Obama's trip to Grand Forks earlier this month is evidence that his campaign thinks it can put North Dakota in play in November. Every state will count, even if it has only three electoral votes.

The DWU Tiger Poll appears to confirm the results of a SurveyUSA poll conducted in early March that indicated the race in North Dakota is very close, with Obama beating McCain by 46 percent to 42 percent in that state. As with the DWU poll, the SurveyUSA outcome was within the survey’s margin of error, surprising results given the fact that North Dakota has not favored a Democrat in a presidential election since 1964.

The poll showed McCain beating Obama soundly in South Dakota in a hypothetical match-up. It is interesting that even though the Dakotas are often lumped together, they have very different political demographics.

And one last thing for those of you in southeast SD: I just received an email from the Obama campaign announcing a Sioux Falls Rally for Change on Saturday where Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin will be encouraging supporters to register as a Democrat (remember, it is a closed primary) and vote early for the June 3rd primary. More information about this event can be found here.

•  Tip jar

  by NoisyWithdrawal on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:34:01 PM PDT

•  Sweet! I've been watching for a SD poll.

  Thanks!

  by jeepdad on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:35:18 PM PDT

•  Goooooo South Dakota!

  by DFutureIsNow on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:37:54 PM PDT

•  nice catch

  thanks!

  by anoodle on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:38:37 PM PDT

•  Good first indication

  I suspect Obama will win SD easily - he has the support of the state's major Democrats (Johnson, Herseth-Sandlin, and Daschle), and he's killed Clinton in Plains states so far.

  If he can put it into play for the general election, that would be fantastic. Winning ND or SD would be huge, even though they each only ahve 3 electoral votes.

  by PsiFighter37 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:40:03 PM PDT

  •  3 Electoral votes

    Is about 5 times more electoral votes than our population of 700,000 suggests we should have, proportionately speaking :-P.

    Add to that South Dakota (Sioux Falls) is a cheap advertising market and you have what, in my opinion, is a state that could be much more competitive with a little more love.

    by Tetris on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:46:41 PM PDT

  •  States like SD rich in super-delegates

    South Dakota has one add-on, which will likely go the winner of the primary. California has five, but since the party chairman intends to split the add-ons 3-2, it will be balanced out by states that have just one. For more on the difference small states make in the delegate math, read my take:

    ADD-ONS for Obama

    by wmdrpa on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 03:04:18 PM PDT

•  Even though Obama will lose SD in Nov.

  SD Dems need him on the ticket. We are three seats away from taking the State Senate.

  by RandySF on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:42:12 PM PDT

  •  Lose? You sound so certain

    I'm not from there, but I'd say "Even though he's behind in the polls right now ..."

    by newdem1960 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:44:11 PM PDT

    •  It would be a big upset

      According to this article, the state is 47% Republican and 37% Democratic. Hopefully Obama can help narrow that gap with a primary campaign in SD.

      by NoisyWithdrawal on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:01:20 PM PDT

      •  Here's some consolation

        Here in WA the Seattle Times' political reporter went around the state interviewing Republicans before our caucus date (while Huck was still slightly viable). I recall one woman who hated Bush, not for the economy or Iraq or other hot-button issues. She expressed incredible disgust at the attitude of the Agriculture Department, and how resistent they were to any suggestion for change, giving a "Cheney 'So?' " to loyal Republicans poiting out problems and suggestions.

        by newdem1960 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:08:06 PM PDT

•  These may be getting stale by now

  but FWIW, Obama camp projected 57-42%:

  http://www.politico.com/...

  by oscarsmom on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:43:37 PM PDT

•  This South Dakotan...

  ...feels like Obama is going to win by 20 percent.

  Obama just opened up an office in Sioux Falls last weekend; Hillary has yet to do so. He also sent a paid staff member to visit our College Democrats meeting at USD and are recruiting interns for the month. I'm very happy to see that Obama is putting some love into this small, red state.

  Also, just to note, the event in Sioux Falls this Saturday is for McGovern Day... McGovern day honors the nominee from South Dakota (who is still alive), is going to rally around Tim Johnson this time around, and will also be bringing in Wes Clark.

  by Tetris on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:45:14 PM PDT

  •  I agree

    When you look at how Obama did in Iowa, Nebraska, ND, Minnesota, and Wyoming it is hard to believe that he would lose in SD, especially when he has the support of Daschle, Johnson and Herseth-Sandlin. The margin might not be quite as big since it is a closed primary rather than a caucus. But, I do expect a big win for Obama here as well.

    by NoisyWithdrawal on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:54:46 PM PDT

  •  Unfortunately

    both McGovern and Clark are for Clinton.

    by IhateBush on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:15:41 PM PDT

•  word of caution

  the poll is 527 people from "North and South Dakota." Meaning that the South Dakota primary preferences may be taken from 250 or so South Dakotans -- leaving a very wide MOE.

  by Tetris on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:53:41 PM PDT

  •  Yeah, I caught that too

    Interesting.

    by jj32 on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:02:00 PM PDT

•  I'm from eastern SD, I live in a more rural area

  than Sioux Falls, but haven't heard many people discissing politics at all. I think maybe we here in SD are used to being irrelivent.

  by JNSD on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:25:55 PM PDT

  •  Not any more, kid. Not any more.

    We're about to hit the Big Time, I'm tellin' ya.  :-)

    by Progressive Witness on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:33:34 PM PDT

  •  Maybe

    We've had a number of very competitive and important Senate races in recent years. And I think the abortion law that was voted down in 2006 was important. We've had a presidential nominee and the Senate minority leader come from SD. That's not bad for a state this size. But you're right that SD isn't a big player in recent presidential politics.

    by NoisyWithdrawal on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:33:53 PM PDT

•  Hail South Dakota!

  No, really.  "Hail South Dakota."  It's a song.  A fight song.  It's kinda lame, but it's ours.

  I'm heading to my first Obama organizing meeting tonight, and I am...so very psyched.  I even called Frau Witness to check and make sure that this t-shirt:

  

  was clean for tonight.  :-)

  At this point, I have no doubt that Barack will handily win our primary here, and unless McCain is foolish enough to pick Thune as his running mate, I think he has a decent chance to win here in November.  SUSA's national GE poll last month had Barack up slightly in ND, and only down by 4 in SD.

  Prog

  by Progressive Witness on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:41:30 PM PDT

  •  Wow, that was unclear.

    "...and unless McCain is foolish enough to pick Thune as his running mate, I think Barack has a decent chance to win here in November."

    In the words of Cordelia Chase, "Okay, way too many pronouns here."

    by Progressive Witness on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:53:52 PM PDT

  •  Hail South Dakota the great state of the land,

    health, wealth and beauty, that what makes her grand! Ha! That took me back to 6th grade South Dakota History class with Mr. Kessler and our big South Dakota History scrapbook project...of which I got an A+!!!

    by JNSD on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:57:32 PM PDT

    •  I learned that song

      when I was in third grade when SD was celebrating its centennial.

      by NoisyWithdrawal on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:59:46 PM PDT

•  Delegate split

  is virtually assured of being 8-7 though.  There are 2 PLEO delegates, which obviously split 1-1 unless Obama walks away with 75%+ of the vote, as well as 4 distributed at-large, which will split 2-2 unless Obama hits 62.5% (possible, but unlikely in a primary), and then 9 district-level delegates, which will split 5-4 unless Obama breaks 58% (also somewhat possible).

  Obama got 57% in the Utah primary, the only other primary of the region so far, but that was with Clinton ignoring the state.  Don't think it's likely she'll ignore South Dakota and Montana.

  by Skaje on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 03:18:21 PM PDT