Asian American's sharp turn to the left
Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 09:12:27 AM PDT
Asian Americans have become a reliable Democratic voting block during the past decade. Clinton lost the Asian vote twice in the 90's. Gore won it in 2000 marking the first time Asian vote swung to Democrats in a presidential election. Kerry also carried the Asian vote in 2004 by a landslide. Turning out the Asian voting block in the battle ground states should be a key ingredient of Obama's November victory.
The percentage of the Asian population in some of the battleground states is listed below (data from US Census Bureau 2006 estimates):
Virginia: 4.8%
Colorado: 2.6%
Pennsylvania: 2.4%
Florida: 2.2%
Iowa: 1.6%
Ohio: 1.5%
Missouri: 1.4%
New Mexico: 1.3%
The traditional stereotype of an Asian America is someone who is hard working, quiet, and conservative. Like all stereotypes, this one also has some element of truth at some time in history. For decades Asian Americans have been reliable GOP voters. This started to change with Clinton. Although Clinton didn't win the Asian votes in either 92 or 96, he won their hearts during his 8 years of presidency. As a result, in 2000 Gore won the Asian American vote by an overwhelming margin. The goodwill that Clinton built carries on today. Hillary Clinton won the Asian American votes by a margin of 3 to 1 over Obama in the primaries this year. That is a larger margin than her Latino votes. Below is the breakdown of Asian votes in presidential elections since 1984. The trend is very clear.
- 32% Mondale 67% Reagan (only CA data)
- 44% Dukakis 54% Bush
- 32% Clinton 52% Bush 17% Perot
- 43% Clinton 48% Dole
- 60% Gore 29% Bush (average of two polls)
- 66% Kerry 31% Bush (average of two polls)
(Above data from East Asian Americans and Political Participation: A Reference Handbook By Tsung Chi, Raymond A. Smith)
Part of the reason for this shift is the change in the makeup of the Asian American population. In the 60's and 70's most Asian immigrants were from Taiwan and Vietnam. These immigrants tend to equate leftism with communism. And since their memory of sufferings under communist governments, their ideology was rather right wing. These plus the traditionally conservative Japanese Americans make up the bulk of the Asian American vote that was solidly Republican. Starting from the 80's, more and more immigrants are from mainland China, Hong Kong, and India. These immigrants tend to be better educated and economically better off than the previous waves. They are also more likely to view the world in less polarized fashion, thus more resistant to the black and white, "them versus us" type of ideology promoted by the Republicans. But because of their economic status many of them are still sympathetic to the idea of economic conservatism and the corporate wing of the Republican party.
What really turned the Asian Americans to the left, is the increasing dominance of the Republican party by Christian fundamentalists. Asian Americans by and large are very weakly religious. They find the intolerance and in particular anti-science attitude displayed by the fundamentalists repulsive. It is not surprising then that the rise of the evangelical wing of the Republican party coincides with the departure of the Asian Americans from them.
Are there wedge issues that the Republicans can use to drive Asian Americans away from Democrats? I had thought that there weren't. The ideology of the Democratic party aligns so well with the interest of the Asian Americans, I couldn't imagine what Republicans could come up with. But I was wrong. They did come up with one, one that may do serious damage to us. The issue is Tibet. See Zwoof's diary on the role of neocons behind the riot in Lhasa. They have successfully whipped up a frenzy on both sides. The recent protests by the Chinese American community over Jack Cafferty's comments is an example. There are not many liberal voices on the MSM. If the Chinese Americans shut they collective ears to Cafferty because of a perceived "racist smear", that's one less channel for the communication.
Finally, let me tell a personal story. I have a Chinese American friend that I have known for over 25 years, since I first came to the US. He and I became US citizens at the same time. He lives in Florida and is a successful professional. Although I have been a democrat since day one, always voting for democrats in every election, my friend started out as an "independent" and consistently voted republican. Because of his personality (江湖义气), he has many more Chinese friends than I have. He is sort of the social "supernode." He also has great influence over his friends. As good as our relationship is, I couldn't get him to change his beliefs and vote democrat. In 2000, (and remember he is in Florida) he voted for Bush II because he "liked his father." I was so PO! He changed at the start of the Iraq war. He was mad at Bush for starting the war. So 2004 was a nobrainer, he voted for Kerry. This year he initially was strongly for Clinton. Now we have agreed to support Obama. I started to introduce him to dkos, sending him links and discussing with him some of the diaries here. He was about to register here when the Tibet thing erupted. After reading a few one-sided, ill-informed diaries, he was very upset. He told me that he would never visit dkos again. Now he is using his network to spread the message that we must fight anti-China racism. He is also organizing activities to support Beijing Olympics. It is this kind of voters that we have worked hard to win over, and risk losing them over mishandling the Tibet issue.
Last time I asked him, he is still committed to voting for Obama.
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