Zogby PA: C46 - O45

Zogby/Newsmax released a... what the... yeah, Zogby/NEWSMAX released a poll tonight showing PA a one-point race. Zogby's had some track record issues. And why is this poll associated with Newsmax? Anyway, it puts the race at virtually dead even.

http://www.mydd.com/...

I'm linking to MyDD because I won't put a Newsmax link up. H/T to mecarr, one of the brave Obama supporters over there for finding this.

But here's the really interesting thing. The second night of polling was tonight DURING the debate. And one salient result was Pennsylvanians' rejection of gotcha politics and negativity. This means that many of the respondents were probably called while watching the debate. This might be an indication of a backlash for Obama against Clinton and sleazy politics. We'll see the next few days I guess.

•  Yes, but Zogby polls imaginary Armenians

  from the 1920's [at least I assume so, given how wrong his numbers tend to be]

  by DemocraticLuntz on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:19:32 PM PDT

  •  Put out a cup for the Armenians!

    by MooseHB on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:24:46 PM PDT

    •  They're not Eliyahu Ha Navi. These are

      imaginary Armenians, anyway.

      by DemocraticLuntz on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:25:31 PM PDT

      •  So's the cup. nt

        by MooseHB on Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 05:09:23 PM PDT

•  Zogby is so bad that he almost

  makes ARG look good, but a pole is a pole I suppose.

  by smash artist on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:20:33 PM PDT

  •  OY

    “On the other hand, Pennsylvanians by a two to one margin (60% to 29%) are more likely to agree with supporters of Obama that voters in Pennsylvania are bitter about their economic situation than with Clinton and critics of Obama that he is an elitist who does not understand working people.

    “On the key questions of who they would rather have a beer with: Clinton 38%, Obama 39% -- with 15% undecided.

    Good on Question One, but Question Two makes me want to smash my head into Art (hehe)

    by Steven R on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:27:40 PM PDT

    •  I'm undecided. They both seem cool to drink with.

      by Ivey476 on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 12:09:02 AM PDT

  •  Zogby is pretty bad, but ARG is IMO

    worse.  While Zogby is off in this, at least they are closer to the rest of the polls while ARG is 20 away.

    by ourhispanicvoices on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:52:21 PM PDT

    •  Zogby is consistently off

      ARG isn't even consistent in its inaccuracy.  One day it will be tied, the next week 20 points apart.  Then back to tied.

      ARG polled the New Hampshire Senate race a few times, the first they found Sununu down by 20, then a month later up by 10, then back to down by 20.  Literally a shift of 30 points before the campaigns even started.  They really just pull numbers out of a hat.

      At least Zogby manages to get the same results over a period of time.  They're just the wrong results.

      by Skaje on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 05:03:49 AM PDT

  •  Leave the Poles outta this.

    by canoeist on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:56:42 PM PDT

•  I threw some darts

  at a dart board and came up with C52 O42.

  by johnny rotten on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:21:00 PM PDT

  •  Dude, that's ARG's methodology (only they have

    crack-addict monkeys do it and the monkeys throw feces instead of darts).

    by DemocraticLuntz on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:22:44 PM PDT

  •  yeah? well my tea leaves say C50 O43 nt

    by TomY on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 12:10:47 AM PDT

•  Zogby polls are only good...

  on the planet where Zogby came from.

  by filmgeek83 on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:21:13 PM PDT

  •  Planet Zogby? n't

    by ZappoDave on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:37:33 PM PDT

    •  Where everything and everyone is Zogby.

      by filmgeek83 on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:40:12 PM PDT

      •  Well ...

        all names start with Z for starters.

        by ZappoDave on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:43:04 PM PDT

•  zogby is crap

  nothing to be excited about.

  hill by 8.

  by amnesiaproletariat on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:22:22 PM PDT

•  Well if Zogby says Clinton +1

  then in reality it is probably Clinton +48

  by unertl on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:22:53 PM PDT

•  I've been in PA, that is probably pretty accurate

  It'll either be Clinton by 6 or so, or a dead heat. It won't be in between. A good 15% of the people there are undecided. I think they're breaking towards Obama (an endorsement not noted by the blowhards in the national press was that of Auditor General Jack Wagner, who just endorsed Obama. Wagner's brother, Pete(who is neutral) runs the south side of Pittsburgh; Pete's daughter, Chelsa, is in the state house (and also supports Obama). Very, very important local support there.

  My gut tells me people are breaking towards Obama and that the wind is with him. I think a narrow, narrow victory--one where he gets a few more votes but Clinton gets more delegates--is in the offing.

  by The Bagof Health and Politics on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:24:03 PM PDT

  •  Debate

    I wonder if he'll get a debate backlash push like Clinton did in NH. The debate was an insult to Pennsylvanians.

    by Elrod on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:26:33 PM PDT

    •  The debate was an insult to all Americans n/t

      by Sedi on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:28:56 PM PDT

    •  Maybe

      Everytime we've had a media crapfest like this (tears, plagiarism), the candidate who was the target of the media became a "no" vote on the media and won. I could see that happening with this. In Pennsylvania, the failure to ask questions about health care and trade will resonate. Eddy Rendell is going around saying he's outraged by the debate. Rendell has his own reservation...

      by The Bagof Health and Politics on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:34:14 PM PDT

      •  Rendell seems to be a reluctant Clinton supporter

        He has been very gracious towards Obama lately.  I think he's a surreptitious Obama supporter just waiting for Clinton to drop out so that he can start actively campaigning for Obama.  

        by ROh70 on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 11:48:17 PM PDT

        •  If so, I hope he lets word out behind the scenes

          For Obama. Every vote counts at this point...

          by The Bagof Health and Politics on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 11:58:21 PM PDT

  •  What do you think will be the turnout in Philly?

    Like what percentage?

    by ObamaManiac2008 on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:29:46 PM PDT

    •  Don't know much about that

      I live in far western Maryland near the PA border and have been campaigning in Central PA. I've heard that things are good, and that the campaign is pleased. Not much beyond that. I think turnout will be extremely high everywhere. Whether it'll be higher in Philly than it is in the rest of the state is an open question and will determine who wins the primary. With Wagner's endorsement, I think Obama will now narrowly carry Allegheny County.

      by The Bagof Health and Politics on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:32:39 PM PDT

      •  The reason I ask is that the turnout was really

        paltry in Cleveland which is one of the place where Obama really needed turnout to happen.  I just hope everyone in the Obama camp realizes how crucial a high turnout will be in Philly.  And he MUST carry that county by 30 points to either boost him to victory or blunt the impact of the rest of the state.

        by ObamaManiac2008 on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:43:13 PM PDT

    •  A WAG

      Ward bosses are calling for an astounding 60+% potential turn out for the primary.
      There are efforts to make sure that additional precinct staff are available to handle a big rush.
      Labor is also working to make sure that there is adequate relief for those that need it so they can participate.
      WhoT!  WhoT! WhoT!

      Every vote & state is precious.

      by paul94611 on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 02:25:17 AM PDT

      •  Just in Philly or statewide? nt

        by ObamaManiac2008 on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 06:59:54 PM PDT

  •  Undecideds will break for Clinton

    She's the known quantity there and not looked upon as unfavorably as in the midwest and west. Obama needs to have a real lead in the polls to win PA, IMO.

    by johnsonwax on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:46:58 PM PDT

    •  NOT this time. This time they break for O.

      Why?  Because he's the path of least resistance, just as Hillary was in Ohio, but for different reasons.  

      They will break for Obama because of all the people out there, the undecideds are a) more likely to be fed up with the length and tenor of the campaign, and want it to end, b) making their decisions as Clinton goes into meltdown, and her credibility is taking hit after hit.

      In Ohio, people still thought of her as trustworthy.  They don't anymore, and for good reason.

      Obama by -1 to +3%  In other words, Clinton gains not a single seat out of PA, and with polls showing Obama leading in IN and NC (remember she's never really overtaken an Obama lead except for last minute snapbacks in NH, OH, and TX).  

      That unleashes the SD's for Obama.  

      Hillary quits next Wednesday.

      by oxon on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 12:15:28 AM PDT

  •  As a former

    long time resident of NE Penna. I think you are more on than off the mark.
    My contention is with the delegate apportionment.
    Philly + the 4 surrounding counties all garner 7 or more delegates.  Allegheny garners 5 as does Erie while the rest of the state is either 3 or 4.
    Again, Texas style apportionment based upon voting patterns in the last election in play.
    Given this and Obama's support in the S.E. I cannot but think that it may well end up the other way round.  With Clinton winning a narrow popular vote victory while Obama nets more delegates.
    We will see what we'll see.
    Regardless, my initial impression that Hillary was enroute to a Kentucky sized win seems to have been in error.  After a decade in Luzerne, Lackawanna & Schuylkill counties I never thought Obama could close it the way he has. WhoT!

    Every vote & state in precious.

    by paul94611 on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 02:20:30 AM PDT

    •  Bob Casey

      That's what happened. The Pennsylvania machine--Casey, not Rendell, is the machine--has more or less lined up behind Obama. Even AFSCME seems to be MIA from PA. SEIU and the Teamsters are, on the other hand, all over the place.

      by The Bagof Health and Politics on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 07:18:16 AM PDT

•  If Zogby gets this right, I might forget

  all those bad things I've said about him.

  by jeepdad on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:26:21 PM PDT

•  His Train Tour of Hope will be refreshing

  after tonight's debacle.

  by jeepdad on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:27:24 PM PDT

  •  re

    If Gibson would lie down on the tracks it would be even more.

    by cookiesandmilk on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:28:47 PM PDT

•  could be worse

  I'd rather be down in zogby than up in Arg

  by voix de raison on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:30:59 PM PDT

  •  wow, biology major much?

    Up in American Research Group, not up in arginine.

    by voix de raison on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:31:37 PM PDT

•  I told you all...

  to expect some momentum in the new Zogby polls as the result of my recent #1 diary.

  :-)

  by Trix on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:31:30 PM PDT

  •  Explain n/t

    by Elrod on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:32:58 PM PDT

    •  Take a look at my most recent diary

      the 6th Update (of 18) to be exact.

      :-)

      by Trix on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:33:47 PM PDT

  •  Trix...can you help me with ...

    the NUTS! Campaign?

    I'm so tired, I must go to sleep...

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    by David Kroning on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:33:28 PM PDT

    •  I've been Rec'ing your comments when I see em

      And I wholeheartedly endorse the idea.

      :-)

      by Trix on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:34:51 PM PDT

    •  D'oh!

      I just Rec'd the diary now... I didn't realize I hadn't done so earlier... sorry about that, David.

      :-)

      by Trix on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:43:15 PM PDT

  •  yea we get it youre an HRC supporter

    post 10 more diaries about it

    by unertl on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:36:48 PM PDT

    •  Ummm...

      

      by Trix on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:38:28 PM PDT

  •  I didn't get that diary of yours

    but I guess there are a lot of things that go over my head.

    by mertmh on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:37:21 PM PDT

  •  LOL

    I missed that diary.  Good stuff.

    Though that calls into question the theory that Zogby gets its numbers by watching a dozen crack-addicted monkeys fling poo at the walls and divine numbers from them.

    by Skaje on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 05:11:31 AM PDT

•  Zogby ain't heavy, He's my brother.

  by gregoryjames on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:36:23 PM PDT

•  Don't forget though:

  He was the ONLY pollster who correctly predicted the outcome in Missouri and he did nail a few other results here and there this year.

  Survey USA had Missouri trending the other direction with Clinton opening up an eleven point lead just before the primary and yet Obama won by about a point and a half.  So Zogby does get it right some times.

  by ObamaManiac2008 on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:40:53 PM PDT

  •  And Zogby and PPP both show it very close.

    Both are likely outliers, or flat out wrong, but the race might be closer than most of us are willing to believe.

    by jeepdad on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:48:44 PM PDT

    •  I don't think so. Outliers are usually singular.

      by definition.

      by oxon on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 12:18:28 AM PDT

    •  And Susquehanna had it within the MoE, too. nt

      by oxon on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 12:19:01 AM PDT

      •  I think Susquehanna was a bit silly.

        They said 18-29 year olds would represent 4% of the vote.  I really don't see that happening.

        by ObamaManiac2008 on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 12:20:08 AM PDT

•  Zogby PA: C3 - O217

  Probably be just as accurate.

  by johnsonwax on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:45:17 PM PDT

•  Not Good. Zogby Always Hypes Insurgents

  and underdogs.

  by Gooserock on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 11:32:29 PM PDT