By the way, that's not at all the same as
winning the debate. Kerry's already done that, and the consensus over the weekend should help even more. Chuck Todd on Hardball last night made the point that much of the print media didn't necessarily see the side-by-side Kerry-Bush portraits, having access only to the straight feed; in the morning, they may have had a chance to see the video replays and their "tie" opinions may change. Saturday Night Live will presumably weigh in tonight as well. And in all of this, Bush's folks did a poor spin job, at least at first.
An interesting perspective brought up on the cable gabfests was whether the Dems can hone in on Bush's accountability, and tenuous relationship to reality. Listening to Larry Kudlow on MSNBC attempt to make the election all about taxes didn't help Bush's reality grounding any (presumably that's where Bush will go in the next two debates). I recall George H W Bush pulling his wallet out and suggesting Americans watch theirs because Clinton would steal it if not stopped. Didn't work for him either. And Americans are not only well aware of local property and other taxes rising, and that those local events are not divorced from the Federal tax cuts Bush pushes. In any case, there's the matter of Iraq to burst their bubble.
In any case, this weekend will be the fight over the debate results. How ridiculous is it that having won the debate we now have to win the spin war? We're off to a good start, but the game's not over yet... not till some polls show a change in the current scenario with Bush having a small lead.
Speaking of which, check out this interesting analysis done at RCP.
Many are commenting on how Kerry appeared calm and "more presidential." While there might be some merit to that argument, it won't ultimately help Kerry that much because he is the one who is trailing, not Bush.
The only way Kerry's calm and measured approach makes any sense from the Kerry campaign's perspective, is if they have a lot more confidence in where this race was strategically before going in to the debate. Maybe they believe the IBD/TIPP poll and the other polls that show this a dead heat or a 1-2 point race. If they honestly felt they were in OK shape, then Kerry's strategy begins to make more sense. The only problem here for the Kerry folks, is that the preponderance of polling evidence, along with the market-based indicators of the race suggest it was not a tie or close race going into last night.
Given that I believe that Kerry was down a solid 4-6 points before the debate, I believe his strategy was terribly shortsighted. Whatever immediate gain he may reap in the initial media coverage, Kerry was not able to draw President Bush into making any gaffes, let alone any major gaffes. And in fact it was President Bush who was able to elicit some Kerry gaffes that the Bush campaign will be able to pound Kerry with in the following days. (Global test, International Criminal Court, bunker-busting bombs).
The inarticulateness of Bush is dismissed as irrelevant because he's oh so resolute (stubborn, petulant, etc only applies to those who dislike the President, not the POTUS himself) and his people like him the way he is, no matter how poorly he carries himself. The fact that independents and undecideds gave the debate to Kerry is dismissed as irrelevant because that doesn't mean they'll vote for Kerry. That last is true, as of now. But Kerry did two vital things that Bush could not prevent. He tore down the wall that Bush spent $240 million to build around Kerry to separate him from the American people. And he energized Democrats and Bush-foes of all stripes while presenting a plausible alternative. Just read Daily Kos over the last 48 hours to understand that last point. I'm a believer that this race was always closer than the polls showed. And remember that Bush does not command a majority of voters (he wasn't elected by one, either). If Kerry voters are as energized as Bush's base (and they are now, and they include indies), Bush loses. And he especially loses when the media filter is removed. That filter has been detremental to the dynamic of the race for Kerry, but the filter's off and the lens is focused.
Let's see how long that lasts. There's more debates to come, and the media has a short attention span, even when the public doesn't.