Quinnipiac University Poll - Obama Narrows Lead in PA

Just saw this:

In the just released Quinnipiac University Poll, Clinton draws 50 percent of support from likely Democratic voters in the state while Obama gets 41 percent. In a similar poll taken two weeks ago, Clinton was at 53 percent and Obama was at 41 percent.

Nice to see all the polls trending for Obama (me being an unabashed Obama supporter), and to see it within the single digit range as well.

Further numbers from the poll:

Florida: Clinton 44 percent - McCain 42 percent; McCain beats Obama 46 - 37 percent;

Ohio: Clinton beats McCain 48 - 39 percent; Obama gets 43 percent to McCain's 42 percent;

Pennsylvania: Clinton tops McCain 48 - 40 percent; Obama leads McCain 43 - 39 percent.

Florida is worrisome, of course.

The Quinnipiac University Polling Institute has an array of breakdowns, of course, such as:

"Roughly one in five Democrats in the three states say they will vote for McCain against Obama, but less than 10 percent say they would vote for McCain over Clinton. Among white Democrats, 23 percent defect to McCain in a matchup with Obama, but only 11 percent defect when Clinton is the Democratic candidate."

Which suggests that there is some work to do within our own party to solidify support behind Obama, but given the polling data on race and age, might also suggest that there simply is a segment of Clinton's constituency that is more comfortable with someone old and white, regardless of political persuasion.

•  Nice paragraph at the end too...

  It's also worthy to note that the CNN article concludes with this:

  A convincing win in Pennsylvania is seen as crucial for Clinton as she seeks to end the primary season with enough momentum to swing the majority of undecided superdelegates her way.

  That sounds conspicuously like the truth...

  by Bogleg on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:27:00 AM PDT

  •  What's your take on where the 2% went

    maybe a stupid question, it's just interesting that Clinton went down but Obama didn't go up.

    by ksh01 on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:36:00 AM PDT

    •  Not an expert...

      I am not an expert, but the number of undecides went up by 2%...that would tell me to have some hope that at least some people's minds are changing or can be changed.  Given the MOE they may just have sampled more DK/NA folks, and the narrowing definition is statistical noise, really (MOE is 2.9%) - but the noteworthy thing is that it is being reported as Obama narrowing the gap.

      by Bogleg on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:43:06 AM PDT

•  Unlike the poll Kos found...

  ... where was up 46-43, this one sounds much more likely.

  T&R

  by MikeTheLiberal on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:33:14 AM PDT

  •  Agreed

    This seems to jive with CW that Obama is probably in the 7-10 point range right now.

    The defection to McCain issue really concerns me.  I find it interesting that 1 in 5 of the respondents said that they would defect to McCain if Obama were the nominee (23% of white voters).  

    I suppose that is partly to blame for the bad blood between the candidates.  I can honestly say that I was not a huge Kerry supporter and found it hard to support him at first in the last election...but I cam around (not that I had much choice).

    I would hope that most true democrats would recognize McCain is not a viable choice this time around as well.

    by Bogleg on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:38:13 AM PDT

  •  PPP could be right; do margins

    we believed rasmussen could be right at 47-42, correct? The PPP poll suggests a
    valid range that extends to H 46, O 42. (h+3; o-3)  Or, there's a 5% chance it's bull. But it could actually mimic the more recent Ras results

    by torridjoe on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:49:58 AM PDT

•  This is for PA, right?

  Please denote that in your heading or text.

  by AyersTeach on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:36:43 AM PDT

  •  Done

    Thanks for the tip.

    by Bogleg on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:39:59 AM PDT

•  Florida

  is probably not winnable for Obama.  Betwen senior citizens and Cuban-Americans I would be shocked if that state went to Obama.  As the economy tanks I believe that his numbners will improve against McCain in Pennsylvania and Ohio.  Obama's best chance to pick up Red States are in the west.  I could see him doing well in Colorado and New Mexico.  For a surprise he may even be competitve in Texas.

  by Jeffrey Kohan on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:49:09 AM PDT

  •  keep your eyes on these potential surprises

    North Carolina
    South Carolina
    Georgia
    Mississippi
    Alaska

    (along with Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Virginia, and, yes, Texas)

    Florida: from MUST-WIN to MOOTNESS

    by wystler on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:01:16 PM PDT

    •  I would love...

      For Georgia to be in the battleground list, but I don't see it happening.  Texas, I can see, which is amazing in itself.  I don't know about Alaska... I would be happy if we got the Senate seat and the at-large House seat.

      To your list of Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Virginia, NOrth Caroline, and South Carolina I would add Arkansas and North Dakota as states to watch.  Obama really is changing the map this year.

      by BasharH on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:40:20 PM PDT