Cracks in the Firewall, or Drip-Drip-Drip

Looks like the Pennsylvania firewall may be cracking with nearly 3 weeks left before the April 22 primary.

Congressional Quarterly reports :

Cracks May Be Showing in Clinton's Pennsylvania Firewall

By CQ Staff
Wed Apr 2, 2:12 PM ET

As Illinois Sen. Barack Obama makes a big push in Pennsylvania, New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton appears to be losing some of her once-substantial lead, according to the latest polls.

Clinton still leads in three of the four polls released yesterday and today, but in every poll, including the first in which Obama took a lead (although, a statistically insignificant one), she has dropped at least a few points.

MORE after the break including interesting Gallup data.

Continued :

 . . . [T]he Quinnipiac poll conducted March 24-31 says Clinton still leads 50 percent to 41 percent, which is 3 points lower for her than its mid-March survey . The margin of error is 2.5 percent. . . .

On Monday, two polls showed Clinton ahead of Obama by statistically significant margins, but one poll had her once double-digit lead down to single digits, and the other indicated some slippage as well. Rasmussen Reports had put Clinton's lead at 47 percent to 42 percent while SurveyUSA gave her a more generous 53 percent to 41 percent.

SOURCE

Pennsylvania has 158 delegates up for proportional grabs in the primary, while North Carolina has 134.  PA and NC are the two largest states left on the schedule.

Obama leads by at least 132 overall delegates while his lead in pledged delegates is considerably larger.

Also, this interesting info about McCain-Obama vs McCain-Clinton hypothetical matchups comes from a Gallup March 24-27 nationwide poll via AmericaBlog :

The survey was conducted March 24-27, interviewing a nationally representative sample of 1,005 Gallup Panel members. Democrats were asked whether Clinton or Obama has the better chance of defeating McCain in November: 59% say Obama does; 30% say Clinton.

Republicans were asked whether McCain has a better chance of defeating Clinton or Obama on Election Day. 64% say McCain has a better chance of beating Clinton, compared with only 22% choosing Obama, meaning Republicans view Obama as the more formidable candidate.

GRAPHIC HERE

At this point, considering all of the factors - Obama has won 30 of 45 contests, has an 800,000-vote lead in the symbolic popular vote, and has significant and important leads in pledged delegates and overall delegates while Hillary's lead among superdelegates shrinks seemingly by the hour - the question becomes not IF Hillary drops out, but WHEN ?  Take the poll . . .

•  Tips for going after McCain finally

  by RobertInWisconsin on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 02:36:08 PM PDT

  •  Hey, Robert

    Don't you know that Pennsylvania is not nearly as important as Indiana and Puerto Rico and. um. that question of "electability" (wink - wink) that will have to be carefully considered by the Supers?
    
    
    ````
    peace
    
    

    by peace voter on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 02:41:34 PM PDT

•  exciting to watch the poll numbers shrink

  I dare say Obama is going to exceed his expectations!

  by louisev on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 02:42:04 PM PDT

  •  10 points

    I know Kos is playing the game, but I think the media CW right now is Clinton by 10 and shrinking. If Obama can keep 10 as the CW number to beat and he beats it, I think Clinton has a hard time staying in after PA. But I think one of the campaign's biggest weaknesses has been managing expectations so I'm not confident he can beat the CW number wherever it is on election day in PA.

    by Joe Willy on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 02:53:18 PM PDT

•  The expectations are

  growing for Obama in Pennsylvania.  Is that really good for him?

  by TomP on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 02:46:37 PM PDT

  •  A single-digit victory for Hillary is

    the last screw.

    A Hillary loss is the final nail.

    by RobertInWisconsin on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 02:48:12 PM PDT

    •  Really. If Obama loses by 9% it is okay?

      I find it all silly.

      Expectations.  

      Games.

      In the end, winning matters.

      by TomP on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 02:48:59 PM PDT

      •  No - a 9% Hillary win would

        be on the order of 54-45.  That's essentially a virtual split of the delegates.  At most she cuts his overall delegate lead down from where it is now (~135) to maybe 125-130.

        He will likely win big in North Carolina two weeks later, off-setting whatever margin she would win in Penn., in fact likely exceeding it.

        This thing is all over but the shouting.

        by RobertInWisconsin on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 02:50:50 PM PDT

        •  And he's getting more supers in the

          lead up -- two more today, further blunting any impact of her winning Penn by a slim margin.

          by middleagedhousewife on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 03:43:10 PM PDT

•  hillary is kind of like "happy days"

  after fonzie went water skiing in his leather jacket...sort of uncool all of a sudden -

  by memofromturner on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 02:48:34 PM PDT

  •  Jumped the shark...

    that's where the saying comes from.

    by meldroc on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 03:00:16 PM PDT

    •  i didn't want to come right out and say it!

      by memofromturner on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 04:15:13 PM PDT

•  I suspect

  Clinton's money woes will eventually turn the tide. It's obvious the campaign is floundering and the more they have to deny they are in trouble, the more perception grows they are in trouble and the more people understand Obama is our nominee.

  by Joe Willy on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 02:51:24 PM PDT

  •  That's the other factor I neglected to include

    Obama has probably raised $125 mil if not more in the first quarter.  If she raised 'close to 20 mil' in March that would mean her first-quarter fund raising would be approx $75 mil IIRC, which is dramatically less than Obama's take.  Plus a huge chunk of hers is off-limits for the primary, and take away that $ 5 mil she owes herself, and you have a major major disadvantage in addition to Obama winning 30 of 45 contests, and having significant leads in delegates as well as the pop vote.

    by RobertInWisconsin on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 02:53:42 PM PDT

•  She won't pull out before PA.

  Hillary's bound and determined to fight this one to the death.

  My prediction is that she'll possibly lose PA (god I hope Obama wins PA) or she'll squeak by with a narrow victory that will do next to nothing to help her catch up in the delegate count.  She won't bow out, but Pennsylvania will set the stage for the inevitable checkmate.

  When will the race be over?  Soon after May 20th.  That's the date of the races in Kentucky and Oregon.  And that's also the likely date when Obama surpasses the magic number of 1627 pledged delegates, making it mathematically impossible for Hillary to catch up.

  At that point, the superdelegates are likely to move for Obama en-masse - none of them want the tar-and-feathering they'd receive if they overturned the pledged delegates.  Very soon after he gets 1627 pledged delegates, he'll get enough superdelegates to kick his total delegate count over 2025.  Checkmate.

  by meldroc on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 02:58:36 PM PDT

•  People are finally sick of it

  Obama weathered a smear attack, Hillary's entire campaign rationale was found to be a fabrication, she can't keep up financially, her campaign is losing its cool, and a few thousand folks have picked up their calculators to look at the math.

  If you think it's unbearable now, imagine how it's going to be in two weeks when we're still ANOTHER week away from the primary.

  by Pangloss on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 03:04:09 PM PDT

•  To go along with your theory

  There were comments on the Firstread website suggesting that Hillary has pivoted to run for veep...Thoughts?

  Hillary's camp has suspended and is no longer giving daily telephone conference calls with the press.    

  It appears for now anyway that Hillary has stopped  making constant daily senseless attacks against Obama.

  Hillary's jovial and relaxed mood on the plane after leaving the Wilkes-Barre, PA airport is described by reportrers as weird but telling. It's as if she has resigned herself to the fact that she cannot win this nomination (most likely her internal bean counters have told her she cannot win PA by the margins she had hoped and that there is now a possibility of even losing PA).

  Hillary is on her way to a fund raiser in New Mexico!!? Make sense to you guys?

  by Snickers77 on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 03:04:36 PM PDT

  •  Very Little That HRC Does Makes Sense to Me

    Hillary is on her way to a fund raiser in New Mexico!!? Make sense to you guys?

    These days I am increasingly baffled by the HRC campaign & HRC herself. A fundraiser in NM? & Isn't she going to be in ND on Friday night?

    by Empower Ink on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 03:17:20 PM PDT

  •  Could you source that for us, Snickers?

    tx

    by Mogolori on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 03:20:44 PM PDT

    •  it is just

      a comment someone made on Firstread that I thought was interesting.  It is not by a pundit or anything.
      But here it is... http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/...

      by Snickers77 on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 03:46:20 PM PDT

  •  Which means...

    ...that tomorrow, she'll probably hold a press conference where she angrily denounces Obama as being a secret member of the KKK.

    by regnaDkciN on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 03:47:12 PM PDT

•  Quick Bill Mark! The Goal Posts! Move The Frickin

  Goal Posts! LOL

  by DFutureIsNow on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 03:37:29 PM PDT

•  Hillary won't pull out unless...

  ...she loses Pennsylvania outright, which she won't.

  Especially in light of the new poll showing her ahead in Indiana (but I think the following would be true even without it), I'm sure the Clinton camp's strategy is to stay in all the way to the convention, find a way to game the convention so as to force FL and MI to be seated as is, then claim that this gives her the popular vote lead and make the case to superdelegates that this should supercede any elected-delegate lead for Obama.

  In other words, she's convinced she has a path to victory, however tenuous (and destructive to the Democratic Party) it appears to the rest of us.  And, with that hope, there's no way she'll pull out until the final nomination ballot in Denver -- no matter what damage she does to our chances in November and beyond.

  by regnaDkciN on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 03:44:50 PM PDT

•  Hopefully her debt will force her out!

  by marsbardem on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 04:29:45 PM PDT

  •  That's the only reason

    the chances are not zero that she will suspend prior to Pa.

    by Inventor on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 05:08:04 PM PDT

•  I can't wait

  to take on John WcCain in November...ASAP! Maybe there's the slightest hope that the HRC campaign won't throw the kitchen sink at BHO like they did before March 4th when they try to decide what to do after these current and upcoming poll numbers in PA. I just hope Obama can finally close the deal.

  by isucyclones94 on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 04:47:28 PM PDT

•  Obama ads on everywhere here in PA

  He's on my TV, saw him last night during American Idol twice, he's on our radio stations.  We see and here him alot here.  Cool

  by jn2375 on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 05:25:03 PM PDT