Dems on offense in Senate fundraising

Hotline has a major round-up of Senate fundraising numbers; Senate Guru reformatted much of the information to be a little more readable, and has some thoughts.

I see lots of good news here. Democrats may be playing even less defense than expected. Only three Democratic incumbents -- Landrieu, Durbin, and Kerry -- have Republican challengers with more than $70k cash on hand, and Durbin and Kerry are safe nonetheless. That leaves a lot of room for Democrats to focus on open seats and taking out Republican incumbents.

And several of those Republican incumbents should be sweating the money situation. Al Franken outraised Norm Coleman ($2.2 million to $2.1 million), and Jeanne Shaheen outraised John Sununu ($1.2 million to $1 million); both Franken and Shaheen trail in the cash on hand department, but continued solid fundraising (and good polls in Minnesota and great ones in New Hampshire) is pretty damn sweet. Next door to New Hampshire, Maine's Tom Allen trails Susan Collins but has an impressive $2.6 million cash on hand.

In the battle for New Mexico and Colorado's open seats, the Udalls are kicking ass. New Mexico's Tom raised more than Republicans Wilson and Pearce combined, and holds a similar cash on hand advantage. Colorado's Mark outraised sweatshop-promoter Schaffer ($1.5 million to $1 million) and has nearly double the cash on hand.

Mark Warner continues to pull in ridiculous money ($2.5 million) on the way to joining Jim Webb in Virginia's senate delegation.

Unfortunately, in Oregon Merkley and Novick are underperforming financially, just as they've been showing other signs of weakness. And Texan Rick Noriega's totals (both money raised this quarter and cash on hand) weren't where they should be, though Burnt Orange Report points out that his fundraising picked up substantially in the latter part of the quarter, once it was clear he was the nominee.

But back on the up side, Andrew Rice pulled in an extremely nice-for-Oklahoma $431k. Oklahoma will remain a long, long shot, but Rice could outperform expectations -- that would be some serious map-expansion. Add in races like Alaska and Mississippi, where Democrats Mark Begich and Ronnie Musgrove may trail their opponents in fundraising but are polling well, and it continues to look like a great year for Democrats.

For context and rankings on these races and more, see brownsox' State of the Senate: April.

Race tracker wiki: MN-Sen NH-Sen OK-Sen OR-Sen NM-Sen CO-Sen VA-Sen

•  Here in Northern MN

  our DFL conventions have been standing room only.  I have donated to Al Franken and Barack Obama.

  by minerva1157 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 06:32:37 AM PDT

  •  Where are you in northern MN?

    I've got an Ely connection.  I'm not voting there yet, but will be in a few years.

    by Ho Ho on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:16:50 AM PDT

    •  I live in Cherry

      that would be in the Hibbing-Chisholm area.  About 8 miles east of the airport.  BTW for non-Minnesotans, DFL stands for Democratic-Farmer-Labor party.

      by minerva1157 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:35:10 AM PDT

  •  Used to live in Ely

    The 1990s were horrible; while the towns on the Range stayed Democratic, the rural area flipped from Dem to GoOper due to moral and environmental issues.  I get the strong sense that a lot of people are coming back.  Also there is something of a pragmatic ideal up there at a certain level; the reality-based thing contrasted with the Bush Administration is a strong, strong selling point; you see it in people I would once have considered very anti-environmental signing on to strong policies against climate change.  And liberals there have backed off of cookie-cutter gun control or draconian timber industry regulation; that has also lowered the temperature.

    by decisivemoment on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:13:06 AM PDT

•  Democracy is still

  alive!

  Kinda.

  by rini6 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 06:39:58 AM PDT

  •  but it is on life support and

    sadly, money is the lifeblood of the process at the minute. (which has given us the current mess)
    Don't forget some Red States stay Red no matter how bad things get.

    by entlord1 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 06:43:25 AM PDT

    •  Making money makes us love it back

      We can't elect anyone except geniuses at raising money, and they don't have much incentive to reform the process.

      If political money loves you, you have to love it back, at least a little.

      by Ezra J Beef on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:13:03 AM PDT

      •  also in the House with a 2 yr cycle

        representatives have to start fundraising the day after the election and continue for the entire cycle, pulling in large sums.
        No wonder they have so little time to govern.

        by entlord1 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:19:00 AM PDT

        •  This is something we must change

          I really think we need to have the house serve for four year stints instead of two.  Two years is ridiculous.  Unless you are a long-term incumbent, you will need to be in continuous fund raising mode to be in the House.  That's one reason why quality people won't run.  Public financing would cure this problem.

          by Katiebegood on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 08:15:20 AM PDT

          •  Four Year Terms with Term Limits

            I absolutely agree with the need to make House terms four years but I would support that amendment only if it included term limits of 6 terms for the House and 4 terms for the Senate.

            by Larry McD on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 08:48:10 AM PDT

            •  The intent of the constitution

              when it gave house members 2 year terms was so that they would vote their districts and represent the people.  If they sat on the hill for four years and did nothing for their district and voted conservative in a liberal district, that would be a waste of time.  Two years keeps congressmen on their toes and it should stay that way.  Also, term limits are the best way to build seniority.  My state legislature has term limits and it's ridiculus, only 6years for the house and 8 for the senate.  They're already talking about repealing it.

              by MenhentheDem on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:10:56 AM PDT

              •  So how will the representatives

                represent the interests of the people in their district if they are having to spend half their time at fund raisers with fat cats so they can get re-elected. Your reply makes no sense.

                by Katiebegood on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 04:35:51 PM PDT

•  Put some donation links up!!!

  Obama supporters help out all Democrats with donation$...

  by NMDan on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 06:40:33 AM PDT

•  The best part about Andrew Rice and others

  is that even if they don't win, the Rethugs will have to spend their ever dwindling cash on races that we would have conceded in the past.

  "If the Goverment is a car setting out to give every one a ride to work, then for 40 years the Republicans have been puncturing the tires, pouring sand in the gas tank, stealing the distributor cap, and, whenever they can get their hands on the wheel, driving it straight into the nearest ditch and then, pointing to the wreckage as the tow truck backs up to it, saying, 'See, this proves that people were meant to walk.'
  And they do this so that they don't have to chip in on gas." - Lance Mannion

  by LostInTexas on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 06:45:42 AM PDT

  •  True...

    ...and Andrew winning is not nearly as important as INHOFE LOSING!

    by rottenart on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 08:16:27 AM PDT

•  I smell trouble

  http://www.cnn.com/...

  "An Iraqi lawmaker warned the U.S. military Sunday that if it doesn't immediately end its attacks on Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's Mehdi Army, "all options are open to us."

  Democrats will be just fine as long as they play their hand right.

  by Nath 4 BO on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 06:46:05 AM PDT

  •  Well:

    Then we could use that to show the complete and total failure of the McCain Doctrine.

    by Eternal Hope on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 06:48:51 AM PDT

  •  Spin is already out about Basra debacle

    The desertion of entire units of the Iraqi Army rather than fight is an example of "culling" out the weak and disloyal members so the remaining force is stronger.

    This is odd since the US military views desertion of its members as a potentially capital offense (though not exercised since Private Slovick), not an opportunity to strengthen the force as a whole.  

    by entlord1 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:22:27 AM PDT

    •  Heh.

      Talk about putting lipstick on a pig.

      

      by Eternal Hope on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:26:45 AM PDT

      •  Is that really Barbara Bush?

        God, how tacky of me. But I couldn't resist, it was the first thing that came to mind.

        by rontun on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 08:58:23 AM PDT

  •  They're talking just like Bush these days.

    "...all options are open to us."

    Bet they use "bring it on" next.

    by Bush Bites on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:48:16 AM PDT

•  Please, please

  send Andrew Rice some of your money.  I know it's a long shot, but Inhofe needs to go!  Andrew's platform is pretty damn progressive for Oklahoma and he represents the change we're all looking for.

  I'm a native Oklahoman although I live in Wisconsin now but this race has captured my attention and my money.

  Donate now if you can!

  Thanks!

  by juslikagrzly on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 06:53:24 AM PDT

  •  link to his site

    http://www.andrewforoklahoma.com/

    by juslikagrzly on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 06:55:45 AM PDT

    •  you can help out Andrew

      on my ActBlue page here, if you're so inclined.

      by rottenart on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 08:12:38 AM PDT

      •  Oops!

        Forgot a link to my diary on the subjest here.

        Thanks!

        by rottenart on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 08:14:51 AM PDT

        •  I've been linking to his site

          for weeks now.  He is on FDL's actblue page and Kos has mentioned him.  Every time I get the chance I link to his site.  

          by juslikagrzly on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 08:29:10 AM PDT

  •  More Money!

    We're from Oregon and we're sending Rice money... trying to divide what we've got between the best of the long shot candidates (the races that take the most courage to launch).

    If nothing else, having an articulate intelligent opponent like Rice will force the barely Cro-Magnon incumbent to "articulate" his views in public forums... and when those views reach a wider audience in the heat of a national election, they will mobilize voters in other states to battle even harder for a 60 seat majority in the Senate.

    by Larry McD on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:00:02 AM PDT

    •  This Okie says thanks!

      I do so long for the day when I have a senator I can respect. Our entire Washington delegation (including Blue Dog Boren) is a joke.

      by deha on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:16:51 AM PDT

    •  Former Okie says THANKS! n/t

      by juslikagrzly on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:32:27 AM PDT

•  Looking good

  I expect NH, Virginia, and New Mexico to remain with large margins in favor of the Democrats. If we're really lucky, Colorado will start spreading out too. Then the DSCC could spend a huge chunk of money on Alaska, Minnesota, Mississippi, Oregon, Maine, and perhaps another race or two like Nebraska, North Carolina, or Oklahoma. I think we have $15 million more than them right now, so that could end up being an extra $2 million per race than the NRSC could spend, certainly a way to catch up to any any COH deficits.

  by Progressive America on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 06:53:47 AM PDT

•  How hard would +9 be this year?

  Can we get to 60?  Or barring that enough of majority to tell Lieberman to fuck off and take away his committee assignments?

  by Magorn on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 06:56:49 AM PDT

  •  It's possible

    Especially if Obama and popular Democratic candidates can turn out the vote in states like Alaska, Oregon, Nebraska, Idaho, and Minnesota.

    Getting 9-10 seats basically requires winning the four states most consider favored toward us, then taking the Minnesota, Alaska, Mississippi, Maine, and Oregon grouping of five states. Out of those MS and ME are the toughest and it's looking like MS and OR will require significant DSCC spending.

    If we don't take any of those, then it requires a surprise in Nebraska, Oklahoma, Idaho, Texas, or North Carolina. To get ten seats we need all nine states in the first two groupings and one of those in the final grouping.

    by Progressive America on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:07:29 AM PDT

    •  I'd love a surprise in Texas...

      As the Burnt Orange article points out, one could argue that Rick Noriega is positioned better than (or at least as well as) Jim Webb was at the same point against George Allen (i.e., they both were extremely outfunded).  Now we need a "macaca" moment from John Cornyn.  Hey, if Jim Webb can win, so can Rick Noriega!

      by sander60tx on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 03:34:46 PM PDT

  •  tough

    but not ridiculously tough. Who really thought we could win the Senate in 2006 until the very end? Getting to 60 would require picking up the obvious (Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado) plus five (Minnesota, Alaska, Oregon, Mississippi, and...?). Really, I can't see us winning either Oregon or Mississippi, though the other two look very possible; but where's the 9th to come from? Oklahoma, Texas, North Carolina...these seem like very tall orders to me.

    by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:09:40 AM PDT

    •  Maine!

      I expect Tom Allen to get much closer in polling by the end of this thing. He has a lot of money and DSCC will certainly spend there if it's looking like these other seats will be blowouts.

      by Progressive America on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:11:26 AM PDT

    •  NC is possible too.

      Dole is not very popular over there; she has been in the 40's, which is not very good territory for incumbents.

      by Eternal Hope on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:15:01 AM PDT

      •  Sadly, SC remains safely red

        without any new stars rising in the Democratic constellation. It seems too many currently elected Democrats were elected due to family connections and outright nepotism so that they are impotent in dealing with the needs of the state.

        We can only hope that when the current crop retires that they are replaced based on merit and not family.

        by entlord1 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:24:44 AM PDT

    •  Don't Give Up on Oregon

      Depending on who's at the top of the ticket and who wins the nomination... we have a very real chance of upsetting Gordon Smith.

      It will be a matter of forcing him to acknowledge his votes instead of allowing him to prattle on about his "positions." It will take more money than any of the three competitive candidates have on hand, but after the primary I think that will change significantly.

      by Larry McD on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:05:43 AM PDT

  •  Remember 2010 though

    Early looks at 2010 seems to be favorable for Democrats. We certainly can pick up a seat in Florida as well as seats in Ohio and New Hampshire. If we do well this year (say 6-7 seats), then we can get to 60 in 2010.

    by Progressive America on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:09:49 AM PDT

    •  History says no

      Usually the president's party loses seats in the first midterm. Assuming Barack Obama wins, history says we will lose a few seats unless there is an extreme circumstance (see 2002). Now, whether the housing crisis and Bush screw ups is an extreme circumstance is up for debate.

      by bobbyd100 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 08:49:42 AM PDT

      •  Contrariwise

        The GOP had a ridiculously lucky year in 2004, winning every close race.  Some of those didn't turn out too well in the short run.

        They'll be defending some particularly odious freshmen, like Diaper Dave Vitter, "Taxes" DeMint, "Doctor Killer" Coburn and Marvelous Mel Martinez.

        Other Republicans are nearing retirement in key swing states like PA, MO and NH. Paul Hacket or Ted Strickland would instantly make Ohio a top tier pickup opportunity. Finally, John Thune in South Dakota would normally be a favorite for a second term, but he's reported to be deeply unhappy in the Senate and might well throw in the towel, leaving Herseth or even Daschle able to take his old seat back.

        by AdmiralNaismith on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:35:39 AM PDT

    •  There are many vulnerable Republicans going into

      2010:

      Richard Burr of NC (this seat has changed parties every six years since 1974)
      Arlen Specter of PA
      Judd Gregg of NH
      George Voinovich OH
      David Vitter LA
      Mel Martinez FL
      John McCain AZ
      Sam Brownback KS
      Tom Coburn OK
      Kit Bond MO
      Jim Bunning KY

      All of those Republicans could face tough races in 2010, although it will be hard to prevail in a midterm if a Democrat is in the White House.

      by oceanstar17 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:16:36 AM PDT

      •  A lot of retirements

        Though I'm sure we'll have a few ourselves.

        Nevertheless, Bunning is obviously retiring. He didn't want to run again in the first place. Brownback has announced he would retire (hello Sebelius!).

        Voinovich isn't so vulnerable. He's a Bushie, but he cloaks himself well in his alleged moderate cover.

        by bobbyd100 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:21:48 AM PDT

        •  The OH GOP is in a state of disarray

          I've also heard that he may not run again.

          by oceanstar17 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:29:53 AM PDT

          •  2010 will be a good year for OH-GOP

            The Dem Attorney General has high disapproval, the Dem Sec of State made some unpopular decisions, and our Dem governor hasnt been able to achieve growth yet thanks to Bushco.

            OH-GOP have lots to unite and grow around. If Voiny runs for re-election, he wins. If he retires, its their's to lose.

            by bobbyd100 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:37:07 AM PDT

            •  What has happened in OH?

              What did Mark Dann and Jennifer Brunner do that was wrong?

              by oceanstar17 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:38:18 AM PDT

              •  Well.....

                Mark Dann refused to release otherwise public records. You would think that would go away.. but noo you keep hearing about it more and more and more. And even so, theres no real excuse for why Dann keeps witholding these public records.

                And Jennifer Brunner got some slack at the county level for changing the voting system. But its not what she did thats going to hurt her, its who she's against. The presumptive frontrunner is House Speaker Husted who has close to a million CoH.

                There is the Rob Portman factor, who could give Strickland a run for his money or win a Voinovich open seat. I think as far as 08 goes the OH-GOP will be in disarray, but I think losing the 20 electoral votes and the State House there will be a wake up sign and they'll reform themselves.

                by bobbyd100 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:06:23 AM PDT

  •  other possible 9th seats

    Maine or Idaho. Again, not very likely, but just having this many seats in contention makes it a little more likely.

    by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:10:18 AM PDT

  •  I think we can do it

    and I think we have to do it.  If all the polls show the Democrats winning by wide margins like 9-10, the Republicans will not try to steal the election.  If the margin is 4-5%, all bets are off and I am sure they will be flipping votes in the black boxes right and left.  The public might believe a 4% margin flipped.  They won't believe a 9% margin flipped.

    This is why we won in 2006.  The Republicans bet on 4% and our margin was 6%.  If they hadn't shaved off that 4% we would have had many more Democrats in office in 2006.

    by Katiebegood on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 08:20:42 AM PDT

•  My downstream money

  is focusing on Senate races in small media markets.  Alaska, Maine, Idaho ... these are places where I can at least pretend that my $40 made a difference.

  by lilnev on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 06:58:16 AM PDT

•  I'll predict 8 seats picked up in the Senate

  That's from counting on the likely ones, and a fraction of the unlikely ones.

  Eight seats would bring Democrats close to the 60 needed to break filibusters, and might give Democratic senators the nerve to kick Joe Lieberman out of the caucus.  

  by david78209 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:04:21 AM PDT

•  OT

  MissLaura, do we still FP Sunday Talk? It's kinda late now for some, but 8AM in mountain time.

  by OLinda on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:11:43 AM PDT

  •  We do, but

    it looks like it just slipped through the cracks this time. Everyone must've thought everyone else would get it.  Sorry about that.

    by MissLaura on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:33:03 AM PDT

    •  Thanks, MissLaura

      If needed next week, I'll try to call it to someone's attention in a more timely manner. :)

      by OLinda on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:36:34 AM PDT

•  The Senate is on the FP

  which is cool

  Now, what about the House?

  by plf515 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:11:53 AM PDT

  •  Markos did extensive commentary

    On James's fundraising roundup the other day.

    by DavidNYC on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 02:19:59 PM PDT

•  Oregon

  Don't you think the lackluster fundraising by Novick and Merkley results from the fact that they are both good candidates and people would be happy with either of them as the nominee?  Kind of like how we used to feel about the presidential candidates, before Clinton morphed in The Monster.  So I'm thinking in Oregon Democrats don't want to waste their money on the primary.  Once there is a nominee, fundraising should really go up.

  by Ho Ho on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:15:31 AM PDT

  •  More or less

    I think the uptick Noriega has had recently will apply to whoever wins the the Oregon primary, too.

    by Michael D on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 08:38:18 AM PDT

  •  It's possible, but

    unfortunately, that will put the winner of the primary at a huge disadvantage headed into the general.

    by MissLaura on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:34:15 AM PDT

•  Franken Presumptive Nominee?

  I think that Al should take a look around and see how Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer is gaining ground and delegates.  Al is a great guy and has done alot of spade work for the democratic party, but he can't debate worth a damn and his stances on some issues are not as progressive as you would be led to think.  Check out his views on nuclear energy.  Jack is inpiring, honest in his positions and has the passion and integrity to actually push for change if elected.  He is not beholden to any special interests.  Listen to him sometime.....he will be a driving force for change.

  by lavndrblue on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:36:25 AM PDT

  •  Yawn

    Yes, Franken is the presumptive nominee.  While Franken certainly has his problems, Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer has no money, little name recognition and no chance to beat Coleman.  

    by Mia Dolan on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:56:37 AM PDT

    •  Hope Franken picks up his momentum.

      Don't know Minnesota politics at all, but I'd hate to toss away a guy who can raise that kind of money, even if he has some problems.

      by Bush Bites on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:59:36 AM PDT

      •  Franken already has momentum

        that isnt to say it couldnt pick up more, but last Rasmussen poll he led Franken by 3%, he's outraising him, he's got a great netroots  campaign and I would bet that he wins Minnestoa by 3-7% margin.

        by MenhentheDem on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 08:49:18 AM PDT

•  Franken is not our candidate!

  The MInnesota Democratic Farmer-Labor Party will make the endorsement in this race, not Kos. There is a progressive running for the endorsement also, Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer. Al Franken has won over maybe half the delegates to the June convention that will make the endorsement, with 60% needed for endorsement. Al has been winning half the delegates for months now and shows no signs of gaining momentum. Jack started late, but he's been slowly picking up Mike Ciresi's delegates when he dropped out as well as the uncommitted delegates. Jack probably has the support of about 40% of the delegates and continues to gain ground. By the time the convention convenes this will be a wide open race that will go several ballots before an endorsement is made. You can learn more about Jack at www.jackforsenate.com

  by SlyDi on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:46:37 AM PDT

  •  Jack can beat Coleman

    I believe that Jack is the candidate that can beat Norm Coleman and Jack is the true progressive (single payer health care, creating a renewable energy economy(non nuclear), civil legal rights for all) Jack will not back down and will hold Normy accountable for his record of stalwart Bush support.  The convention is going to be a fight till the end if Jack can keep up the momentum. I do think Franken is getting nervous, he is calling Pallmeyer delegates to see how 'firm' their support is.....I love it!

    By the way, what CD are you in and are you a delegate to the State convention?  

    by lavndrblue on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:58:54 AM PDT

    •  CD5 for Obama, Ellison, and Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer

      I'm a delegate for Jack and all of the above in the 5th CD.

      by SlyDi on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 08:23:47 AM PDT

    •  LOL

      Coleman              51
      Franken               41

      Colman                57
      Nelson-Pallmeyer  28

      http://www.surveyusa.com/...

      The Nelson-Pallmeyer people bitched because he never got included in polls.  So SUSA included him in a poll last month (no one has included him since) and confirmed what everyone already knew: that Nelson-Pallmeyer is a joke and not a viable senate candidate.

      Franken is a flawed candidate, but the answer is not to replace him with a total assclown like Nelson-Pallmeyer.  The DFL has done a lot of dumb things over the years, but they aren't that dumb.

      by Mia Dolan on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 08:26:51 AM PDT

      •  That poll mostly measured candidate familiary...

        Most Minnesotans don't know who Jack is yet. Wellstone was even lower in the polls after the June state convention and went on to win. Note also that Jack doesn't have Al's high negatives.

        by SlyDi on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 08:58:44 AM PDT

        •  Wrong

          That poll mostly measured candidate familiary...

          How do you figure that?   Coleman's numbers went up to 57 percent.  Maybe people just don't like Pallmeyer.  And even if that were true, its seven months before the election.  When you say:

          Most Minnesotans don't know who Jack is yet.

          you are admitting that Pallmeyer is running an incompetent campaign.

          Paul Wellstone was perhaps the greatest politician in the history of Minnesota.  Pallmeyer is a third-rate, simple-minded hack running an incompetent campaign.  Minnesota voters know the difference.  

          by Mia Dolan on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:16:06 AM PDT

      •  A Joke?

        That sounds like a Rethuglican remark and uncalled for.  Everyone has a right to support who they feel represents them the best.  Name calling and insults is what we expect out of our opponents not within our party.  

        by lavndrblue on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:16:54 PM PDT

        •  OK

          I was being being charitable by using "joke."  Pallmeyer is an absolutely horrible candidate.

          by Mia Dolan on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:24:30 PM PDT

          •  So everyone should think the same way as you

            Not everyone thinks Franken is so great.  He is a horrible debater and we are going to need someone that can out debate Coleman.  

            by lavndrblue on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 06:53:38 PM PDT

            •  Well

              Franken isn't that great.  Its just that Pallmeyer is horrible.  Coleman wouldn't even have to bother to debate him because he is such a tool.  Pallmeyer would make a lot of Democrats vote for Coleman.

              by Mia Dolan on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:22:27 PM PDT

  •  Franken is equally progressive

    and does MUCH better in polling and fundraises better, and is a shoo-in for the endorsement.

    by MenhentheDem on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:01:07 AM PDT

•  Already gave Durbin $100.

  Will probably give the DSCC some next.

  by Bush Bites on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:46:38 AM PDT

•  John Kennedy may have some bucks

  but Landrieu's got the numbers.  Southern Media & Opinion's got her up 50-38.  Rasmussen, on the other hand, seems to need some instruction on the difference between its derriere and a hole in the ground:

  According to one news account of a new poll by Rasmussen Reports, Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., had a 39 percent to 55 percent lead over her Republican challenger, state Treasurer John Kennedy. According to another account, that same poll had Kennedy ahead by a statistically insignificant 46 percent to 47 percent. Who was right? As it turns out, no one. The first poll results showing Landrieu ahead were posted on the Rasmussen Web site and then pulled after the firm realized it had confused the results with polling done in the Virginia Senate race, which showed Democrat Mark Warner ahead by that same 39 percent to 55 percent margin. Rasmussen later posted the 46 percent to 47 percent results, and then quickly removed that from its Web site. A company spokesman confirmed that the first results were wrong, but could not explain what happened with the second posted results. All he would say is that Rasmussen doesn't have any current polling data in the Louisiana Senate race. For Landrieu campaign staff, the sudden fall from 16 points ahead to one point behind, followed by a "never mind" from Rasmussen, was softened by the release last week of another poll, this one by Southern Media & Opinion. It showed Landrieu running ahead of Kennedy 38 percent to 50 percent.

  Meanwhile, Sec. of State Jay Dardenne, imo a potentially stronger GOP challenger, has declined to run, leaving Kennedy as the presumptive Publican candidate.

  So, come on NRSC, pour your dough down the bayou.  It'll be fun to watch.

  by Crashing Vor on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:57:33 AM PDT

•  I am still hoping Collins will go down

  But I am skeptical.

  Something about the "moderate" republicans in the senate really bugs me more than the ones who don't try to hide their colors.

  And she's a big Lieberman fan, so there's that.

  by Sam Loomis on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 08:05:00 AM PDT

•  Not a fair comparison on Oregon

  Unfortunately, in Oregon Merkley and Novick are underperforming financially, just as they've been showing other signs of weakness.

  Oregon is in a situation where the Democrats are choosing who will oppose Smith.  I believe many voters, myself included, are withholding our cash to donate to whichever candidate will be running against Smith.  So, you can't compare the fund raising ability of two candidates who are running for the Democratic nomination to Democrats who are running against a Republican opponent.

  We will need help here in Oregon to defeat Smith.  Unfortunately he is being treated like the press is treating McCain.  Many people here are fooled into believing that Smith is a moderate.  That is not the case.  He has voted with Bush 95% of the time.  That's no moderate.

  So Kos...are you going to help us here in Oregon beat Smith by encouraging your readers to donate to whomever is the Democratic candidate, like you do in so many other races?  I hope so because kicking Smith to the curb would be very sweeeet!

  by Katiebegood on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 08:12:15 AM PDT

•  Hey Kos...

  ...any reason why Andrew Rice isn't on your Blue Majority list? I thought maybe it's because of the odds against him or something, but I'd love to hear your explanation. Not a dig, just curious.

  by rottenart on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 08:17:58 AM PDT

  •  I think you're right

    Many people don't believe Andrew has a chance because Inhofe's pockets are so deep, not to mention the fact that our economy is so dependent upon the oil and gas industry. Lots of people here look at any proposals to get us off our fossil fuel addiction as a direct attack on their livelihoods, and they see Inhofe as protecting our state's interests.

    Fortunately, there are also lots of people who are capable of seeing Inhofe's bluster for what it is: a shortsighted and wrong-headed attempt to shield his corporate masters from the inevitable collapse of their industry.

    I hear people in the oil bidness say (not oil company execs, of course) that they see the end coming, and they're preparing for what comes next. Too bad our leaders won't embrace what could be a major opportunity for Oklahoma to lead the way in developing and implementing solar and wind power. Wind sweeping down the plains, anyone? :)

    Andrew certainly has a tough row to hoe here, but if nothing else, perhaps this race will stretch the GOPers' resources even more thinly and open up some opportunities elsewhere.

    by deha on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:11:16 AM PDT

•  dems will expand their lead in the senate

  by bigman22 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 08:17:59 AM PDT

•  Personally...

  I'm finding the amount of money campaigns spend quite "offensive."

  Imagine the number of people who could get housed or fed or given medical treatment with the amounts bandied about.

  by jillian on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 08:34:38 AM PDT

  •  A senate campaign is nothing

    Look at Procter & Gamble's media budget or any corporations ad budget. You'll find that 10M once every six years is modest.

    by bobbyd100 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 08:58:46 AM PDT

•  Don't forget Susan Collins

  Allen has raised almost $4 million total so far and he's got a lot of enthusiasm and celebrity support.  Just two days ago I got an e-mail from Stephen King that said "I don’t often get involved in politics, but I believe there is a great deal at stake in this year’s election.  It is my pleasure to announce two very special events in Bangor, Maine on June 7th to benefit my friend Congressman Tom Allen’s campaign for the U.S. Senate.

  It went on to say that there will be a fundraiser with John Grisham, and Tess Gerittsen and himself for the benefit of Allen.  He can win, it will just take some time and serious advertising.

  by MenhentheDem on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 08:45:09 AM PDT

•  We're sitting on another 20-30 million

  Baucus, Kerry, Durbin, Harkin, Levin, Reed, Warner, and Johnson are up for reelection and don't necessarily need their entire war chests. And then theres lots of other senators not up for election (Bayh, Clinton, Feinstein to name a few) with massive war chests we really need.

  Its use it or lose it. We have enough money to make Idaho and Nebraska and other Tier 3 overly competitive. Anything we make competitive is somewhere they have to waste money on defense. We'll never get another chance like this.

  Lets hope our senators make big donations to the DSCC. Kerry and Baucus don't need 9 and 6 million respectively.

  by bobbyd100 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 08:56:28 AM PDT

  •  And I forgot about Pryor

    Who has almost 4M cash on hand and no high profile opponent to force him to spend it.

    And correction above, Warner is not up for reelection.. but he still has a CoH and polling lead for an incoming freshman. What a recruit, good job Schumer.

    by bobbyd100 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:07:18 AM PDT

•  This could very well be the best cylce for Senate

  Democrats since 1986, when they won every close race.

  by oceanstar17 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:14:23 AM PDT

  •  I sure hope you're right

    There's an opportunity there, but there are still some problems -- candidate recruitment in Oregon, and then Congressman Allen's flub of a campaign in Maine (you'd think with as much money as his campaign account has, he would at least be close to Collins)

    by decisivemoment on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:16:39 AM PDT

    •  What Allen has to do is link Collins

      to Bush. However, she is probably the Connie Morella of ME.

      by oceanstar17 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:18:02 AM PDT

    •  Flub?

      Has Allen done anything wrong that you know of? Or are you blaming him just because his polling has not yet shown better results than you want?

      by AdmiralNaismith on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:41:27 AM PDT

•  Oklahoma could be a surprise

  upset. I would love to believe that OK would kick out Jim Inhofe.

  by oceanstar17 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:17:28 AM PDT

  •  Any reason why you believe this

    in a presidential election year where Clinton or Gore would lose the state by 20 and Obama by 25-30.

    Rice is a good candidate and Inhofe a horrible incumbent.  But Carson lost to Coburn in 2004 because Kerry lost 66-34.  This is one of the few states where Obama will be a real liability on the ticket.  

    by IhateBush on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:40:05 AM PDT

•  I think the Oregon fundraising will improve

  after the primary.  The problem here is that we have two candidates that are pretty likable, but neither is really outstanding. Most Dems are waiting to see who will emerge as the choice.  Smith will have a lot of money, but it won't be an easy race for him.  
  Unfortunately, Smith is very popular in the rural areas.  He has done a good job of taking care of their needs.  
  Either Merkley or Novick will have to work hard to chip into that base.  
  Also I think it fits the Oregon moderate view to have one Democrat and one Republican in the senate.  I don't have anything to back this statement up, just a feeling  that, on the whole, Oregon's people have a strong distrust of both  national parties.  
   

  by MarkBird on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:20:53 AM PDT

  •  Whoever wins will raise lots of money in June

    Whoever wins the Oregon primary on May 20th is going to raise a lot of money in June.  I know a lot of Dems who're sitting out the primary with the intent to give money to whoever wins. With that said, I don't think either Merkley or Novick can win in the general without a lot of money coming in from outside the state.

    by emilyxgeorge on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:43:37 AM PDT

  •  But Smith has not fought hard enough for cities

    Such as people powered Portland and Eugene where our kossack priorities of separation of church and state and, of course, people powered LGBT marital rights are first and foremost. We have the votes in the major cities in Oregon and Smith's lukewarm support of hate crimes is not enough. We appreciate his tenderness on that issue, but he is not tough enough on the issues that drive us as kossacks, namely LGBT fundamental emanating constitutional marital rights.

    by kevinspa on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:55:02 AM PDT

•  You left out Nebraska

  Certainly, its not clear whether Kleeb will beat the Republican in Democrat's clothing, Raimondo in the primary but he is outraising him.

  He's also not doing to shabby compared to frm Gov Johanns.

  Kleeb Builds Strong Fundraising Base

  April 13, 2008

  U.S. Senate candidate Scott Kleeb today released campaign fundraising totals for the period ending March 31st.  Kleeb raised over a quarter of a million dollars in the five weeks after he announced his candidacy and ended March with over $280,000 cash on hand.

  Kleeb’s report will show that he earned more support in the five weeks following his announcement than did former Bush Cabinet member Mike Johanns over a comparable period.  

  "There is an unprecedented level of excitement and enthusiasm behind Scott Kleeb," said Kleeb Communications Director Joe Zepecki.  "Nebraskans want change, and know that career politicians like Mike Johanns won’t deliver it."

  The following are highlights from Kleeb’s fundraising report, which will be submitted to the FEC on Tuesday.

  • $274,454 raised from 1,013 contributors in the first quarter – despite being a candidate for only 36 days.
  • Over 60% of contributions were from Nebraska residents
  • 96% of donors can contribute again without hitting federal contribution limits
  • $281,094 Cash on hand as of April 1st

  P.S. don't be shy about making a contribution.

  by Quanta on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:42:15 AM PDT

  •  Nominee Obama will help Scott

    When he campaigns for Scott in Nebraska explaining that he needs Scott in the US Senate for judicial nominees who understand that people powered LGBT marital rights emanate from our Constitution.

    by kevinspa on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:56:01 AM PDT

•  Oregon

  Look for the winner of the May 20 primary to immediately get an enormous cash infusion from the netroots and the general Oregon public.

  A whole lot of us like both Novick and Merkley and are just waiting for one of them to hurry up and become the nominee, so we can throw our support to that one.

  And yes, we still do have a 60-Senator majority as a plausible outcome. And booting the Dark lord of the Smith out of Washington is part of that scenario.

  by AdmiralNaismith on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:24:37 AM PDT

•  This means

  either the average Republican doesn't care enough to donate - too used to having others do it for them - or they are being pounded in this economy.  If the latter is the case, I'm sure they will be inspired by their presidential candidate telling them that the economic problem is psychological and that overall, things are going quite well.  Either way, it's fine with me.

  by myrealname on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:37:18 AM PDT

•  New Mexico

  
  Rep. Tom Udall (r) with his wife Jill and dad Stewart Udall at polling place in 2006.

  Tom Udall is not only doing great in the money department generally, he's getting lots of participation at Act Blue. In the first quarter this year he finished second in raising money at Act Blue. You can donate to Udall's campaign here

  His campaign is very active despite there being no Dem primary challenger. It's evident he's not taking anything for granted. For instance, he recently he did one of those SEIU Walk a Day in My Shoes events with a resident at UNM Hospital in Albuquerque.

  Another plus; Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund is making this race its number one priority this election cyle. They've already run a tv ad and a radio ad strongly criticizing the environmental records Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce, who are in a fierce battle for the Repub nomination for Senate, and tying them to all the big donations they get from energy corps. Defenders already has an organizer on the ground here who was heavily involved in beating Pombo out in California, so we are psyched.

  HOWEVER, Udall's campaign is quick to point out that this race won't in any way be an easy win. The GOP and their allies will be pumping incredible amounts of money into New Mexico to beat Udall regardless of whether Wilson or Pearce gets the nod on the Repub side. This one's gonna be a ferocious battle.

  by barbwire on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:39:57 AM PDT

•  Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer the best MN-SEN candidate

  Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer is head and shoulders above any candidate I have seen for a generation or so, bar none.  He was publicly and eloquently against the war before it started, debating centrist Republican congressman Ramstad and advising our revered Paul Wellstone (who later voted against the war powers resolution).

  Jack knows we become less secure by spending our national patrimony on wars for oil and domination.  He knows we would be infinitely more secure if we spent this money on sustainable energy sources instead.  He understands that we would gain manufacturing jobs by investing in a green economy.  He is pro-choice, pro-GLBT rights (including marriage), against polluting coal plants, against the eternal waste of new nuclear plants, completely in favor of sustainable resources.

  The Prius isn't efficient enough for him, so he drives a Honda Insight to conventions (at around 100 mpg) around the state, leaving the photo-voltaic panels on his roof to quietly spin the electric meter backward.  He is the nicest guy I have met in a decade or so.  He has no scandal in his background, and doesn't even use 4-letter words (or even get mad).

  Jack has perfect moral compass.  His strength comes not from bluster, but from his convictions.  He is incorruptible and dependable.    

  Jack is a fantastic speaker who convinces without calling names, an academic with a dozen books under his belt on foreign policy issues like world hunger and values, but who doesn't need 50 minutes to make his point to anyone.  He is a Lutheran with a masters in divinity who teaches justice and peace at a local Catholic university.

  Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer is the perfect candidate for Minnesota, and actually a perfect Democrat.  His only problem is that he hasn't had the contributions from outside Minnesota to get the attention of the mainstream media.  If you would like to solve that problem, go to http://www.jackforsenate.com and click on the "Contribute" button.  While you are there, listen to a couple of his speeches streamed.  You will be astounded.

  (Disclosure: I am a frequent Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer volunteer, but not a staffer.  You might even say that I like this candidate!)

  by Charles Underwood on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:38:12 AM PDT

  •  Bad link. Sorry.

    The correct link should be http://www.jackforsenate.org

    Sorry.

    by Charles Underwood on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:39:55 AM PDT