My Final Prediction is a Five-Star Lock!!
Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 07:33:23 AM PDT
Polls! Polls! More polls!
To paraphrase Michael Berube, Professor of literature and cultural studies at the University of Pennsylvania, in a post last week or so at TalkingPointsMemo, regarding the ongoing navel-gazing at the Pennsylvania polls, which were inconsistent at the time:
We need to push off the primary past April 22 until more polls come out!
Will it be a 10-point win by Hillary? A squeaker by Obama? Will Hillary keep it to 6? Or 7? Or--my God, man, imagine the possibilities--8?
We may never know.
Oh, actually, sorry, I guess we will know.
Dither dather over the final tallies as you wish, for what brings you joy brings me joy, my wee compatriots.
But if you want a real prediction, if you want the real deal, as they say, nay, if you want what will undoubtedly be heralded by future historians as a stroke of unprecedented prescience, then traipse with me with eager antici....pation across the fold!
My friends, here then I give you my FIVE-STAR, SOLID GOLD, CAN'T MISS PREDICTION OF THE WEEK.
Tuesday Night:
MSNBC calls it, along with CNN. Hillary wins by somewhere between 3 and 17 points. Bobbleheads talk up a Clinton victory. Chris Mathews bloviates, tries not to piss off one of the candidates whose support he will need come 2010 if he is going to run for Senate. Pundits litter the airwaves with "But was it enough?" questions that will be answered realistically only by Chuck Todd, whose temperment and knowledge flows as a mighty river directly from his goatee, a magical thing no one else on television has.
Bobbleheads will discuss "momentum shifts" to Clinton. Followed by talk about how much "damage" was done to Obama with the Wright, et al. controversies. Much ado is made about Obama's failure to win the critical "white male vote," without any mention that no Democrat wins the white male vote in the general election, and probably won't in an election where one of the candidates is a white guy married to a beer distribution heiress, which is, I believe, the punchline of some dirty joke. Chitter chatter about Catholics ensues. Surrogates appear to offer contrarian views that (a) this was the win Hillary needed, Obama outspent her and still couldn't "put it away," she's electable, doubts remain as to Obama's electability, and (b) Obama did better than expected, he was down 20, came back, he has the delegate lead, on to other contests. James Carville molts his top layer of skin off, in ecstacy, right there on live teevee.
Tuesday night, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday:
Blogs are alit by various factions hailing Hillary as the comeback kid, on to the nomination, etc. Visitors to NoQuarter and Taylor Marsh cite the results as unassialable proof that Obama is the worst candidate in the world, ever, and could not win dog catcher unless the town in which the election was being held was populated entirely by blacks and Professors of Blowin' Shit Up In the Name of Marxism. Obama supporters point to the math, note that Hillary's behind in all measurable metrics. A new round of rending of garments and gnashing of teeth ensues over the newly polished off goalpost of "the popular vote." Arguments abjectly devoid of reason are advanced by tinfoil millners in all quarters. Obama is teh Debil! Hillary is going to run as an independent with Joe Lieberman and Harold Ford! Name-calling ensues. Poo is flung in heretofore unimagined ways.
Friday:
Shine of the victory wears off a bit as media recovers from post-Pennsylvania masturbatory reportage. Some look ahead to Indiana and North Carolina. Acknowledge Obama ahead in North Carolina. IS INDIANA THE NEW BATTLEGROUND?? is the media meme. Blog orcs continue to tear at each other senselessly, online manifestos are written, sides shored up, battle lines drawn, redrawn, surveyed, staked, and drawn again for good measure. 1,345,765 words are written online per hour, persuading exactly 0.000% of the blogging population to change their minds. Arguments containing so many logical twists that they would make Cirque de Soliel performers jealous are advanced. Snark and vitriol levels at an all-time high.
Sunday:
This Week with Meet the Nation's Last Word Sunday roundtables offer slightly warmed over and obvious arguments. David Brooks vacilates, cleans up his vacilation with a tissue, vacilates some more. Brows are furrowed as Serious People offer the exact same kind of predictions and soothsaying you can find on any blog, but are offered with even less logic. Garin is absolutely nowhere to be seen. Chuck Todd quietly keeps pointing to the numbers, waxing his allpowerful goatee. Various theories are advanced as to the Superdelegate trickle that has occurred since Tuesday. Is the fact that Hillary picked up four new SD's telling? puppets breathlessly ask. Is the fact that Obama picked up five new SDs telling? is the next breathless meme. WHAT WILL THE DNC DO??! is bandied about. Howard Dean appears, remains relatively non-comittal. Donna Brazile basks. James Carville now beyond molting and is in skin regeneration mode under a heat lamp in Georgetown.
Week of the 27th:
More Superdelegates trickle in to one candidate or the other. One Superdelegate is a party operative from Wheatfield, Indiana who will receive more press and blog attention the day he announces then he will ever, ever receive in his entire life, except for the day he is indicted on a corruption charge involving a banking scheme and a hooker named "Toby" sometime in 2017. More gnashing and rending on the blogs. Poll reading for Indiana becomes a form of self-abuse.
Weekend of the 3rd:
Could this be Hillary's last stand???! is the new media meme as it well-known by now that she only picked up 8 net delegates from the last primary. Chuck Todd quietly continues to point to the magic wipe board, build credibility, amass empire.
May 6:
Obama wins NC handily, edges out Clinton in Indiana.
Night of May 6:
Pennsylvania what, now?
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