What is the definition of a "blowout?"
Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 08:08:58 PM PDT
Last night, I heard a comment by some talking head on MSNBC to the effect that while Clinton would probably win Pennsylvania, it might not be a "blowout" like Ohio. This must mean that Clinton's margin of victory in Ohio constituted a "blow-out." That margin was 10%. But if a 10% margin of victory is a "blow-out," then what do you call the following margins of victory enjoyed by Obama in other states:
+Idaho 62%
+Hawaii 52%
District of Columbia 51%
+Alaska 50%
+Kansas 48%
+Washington 37%
Georgia 36%
+Nebraska 36%
+Minnesota 34%
Illinois 32%
Virginia 29%
South Carolina 28%
Mississippi 24%
+North Dakota 24%
Maryland 23%
+Wyoming 23%
Louisiana 21%
Vermont 20%
+Maine 19%
Utah 18%
Wisconsin 17%
Alabama 14%
Delaware 10%
+Iowa 9% (over Clinton, who was third)
(NOTE: All figures are from cnn.com and "+" indicates a caucus state.)
The reason Obama has an essentially insurmountable lead in elected delegates at this point is, quite simply, that where he's won he's tended to win BIG, and where he's lost, he's tended to lose by much narrower margins than those by which he's won in other states.
The day after the Iowa caucuses, as I was driving back to Maryland and listening to the radio news, I kept hearing Obama's victory in Iowa being described as a "narrow" one. But if a 9% margin is a "narrow victory" and a 10% margin is a "blow-out," there seems to be very little room for something being only an ordinary victory. Or is a "blow-out" only a blow-out, by definition, if Hillary Clinton comes out ahead?
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