It's NOT double digits!

The talking heads are already touting the significance of Clinton's double digit victory in PA.  That threshold had been established as an arbitrary yardstick of victory against Obama's increasing success in diminishing HRC's >20% polling numbers of a few short weeks ago.  If Clinton could hold him off and pull out a double digit victory, her campaign could prove its viability.  The facts seem to be, however, she didn't make it.

As of this writing, an Ivory Snow (99.44%) percentage of the districts have reported statewide, and it stands thusly:
Clinton: 1,237,696
Obama:  1,043,174

That's a total of 2,280,870 votes.  Extrapolating for that last .56%, we get  a total of about 12,844 votes outstanding out of a projected total of 2,293,715.

Now, for Clinton to claim a double digit victory, she would need a margin of 9.5% to round up to 10%, so that means she needs a 54.75/45.25 split.

To get that split, she needs .5475(2,293,715) votes, or 1,255,808.  That's 18,113 more votes than she has now.  Problem is, that's more votes than are outstanding.  Meaning - there's no way she's going to win this by 10%.

Of course, now that the "double digit" "significant victory" meme is out there, the mathematical facts will become irrelevant, but in the expectations game, this was a damned good comeback for Obama in a solidly Clinton state.  Let's see how long before any MSM bobblehead picks up on that.

•  Send the stats

   to all the media over and over and  over--Drudge is reporting it now...

  by docb on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 08:35:39 AM PDT