Inspired by the comprehensive delegate predictions done for PA, NC, and IN, I'll try my hand at Oregon.
Oregon has 52 pledged delegates to award on its May 20 contest. They break down as follows (from the Green Papers:
- 18 delegates by statewide total
- 12 At-Large delegates
- 6 PLEO delegates
- 34 district delegates
- 7 delegates to OR-01
- 5 delegates to OR-02
- 9 delegates to OR-03
- 7 delegates to OR-04
- 6 delegates to OR-05
Going off the April 6 Survey USA poll, which found that 52% support Obama and 42% support Clinton, as well as Obama's strength in the surrounding regions, I am going to predict Obama maintains his 10 point lead and wins 55%-45%.
So the PLEO delegates are an easy 3-3 breakdown, unless Obama exceeds expectations and passes 58.33% statewide.
To get the At-Large delegates to break down 7-5, Obama must hit 54.17% statewide, which I believe he narrowly will, otherwise that too splits even 6-6.
Then it's on to the congressional districts...
OR-01: 7 delegates.
Represented by David Wu, who just endorsed Obama today, this district is based in northwestern Oregon and has some of the Portland area within it. As it is a odd-numbered district this is a pretty safe 4-3 split for Obama unless he somehow gets to 64.3%.
OR-02: 5 delegates.
Represented by Republican (the only one) Greg Walden, this rural GOP-leaning district encompasses the entire eastern half of the state. While Obama has fared poorly in midwestern rural areas, the rural mountain west has been strong for him, and the Survey USA breakdown shows him actually performing better outside of Portland, leading by 26% across the rest of the state. Safe call: 3-2 Obama win here.
OR-03: 9 delegates.
Represented by Earl Blumenauer, who endorsed Obama back in February, this district is basically urban Portland, the most Democratic part of the state which explains its large delegate count. Obama would have to break 61.1% here to achieve the 6-3 split, which is possible, but unlikely. A safer bet is a 5-4 delegate split achieved by Obama winning a simple majority of the vote.
OR-04: 7 delegates.
Represented by Pete DeFazio, who is neutral, this district covers the westen side of the state below the Portland area. Obama performed well in the California counties that border this district, and due to his statewide strength I think it is unlikely that Clinton will snag this district. 4-3 Obama, unless it turns into a rout and he hits 64.3%.
OR-05: 6 delegates.
Represented by retiring Darlene Hooley, who endorsed Clinton, this district includes southern suburbs of Portland as well as the state capitol Salem. Even if Clinton wins this district on account of the endorsement (unlikely), she would have to get 58.33% to break it in her favor. I don't think Obama will do that either. 3-3 it is.
All together that's 29-23 for Obama as long as he wins the state by a solid 10% margin. If the margin falls to 8% then Obama splits the at-large and it is 28-24, unless Clinton overperforms and wins a district besides OR-05.
Will it be enough to cancel out Kentucky, which votes on the same day? I'll take a look at that tomorrow.
cross-posted at mydd, why not?