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Inspired by the comprehensive delegate predictions done for PA, NC, and IN, I'll try my hand at Oregon.

Oregon has 52 pledged delegates to award on its May 20 contest.  They break down as follows (from the Green Papers:

  • 18 delegates by statewide total
    • 12 At-Large delegates
    • 6 PLEO delegates

  • 34 district delegates
    • 7 delegates to OR-01
    • 5 delegates to OR-02
    • 9 delegates to OR-03
    • 7 delegates to OR-04
    • 6 delegates to OR-05

Going off the April 6 Survey USA poll, which found that 52% support Obama and 42% support Clinton, as well as Obama's strength in the surrounding regions, I am going to predict Obama maintains his 10 point lead and wins 55%-45%.

So the PLEO delegates are an easy 3-3 breakdown, unless Obama exceeds expectations and passes 58.33% statewide.

To get the At-Large delegates to break down 7-5, Obama must hit 54.17% statewide, which I believe he narrowly will, otherwise that too splits even 6-6.

Then it's on to the congressional districts...

OR-01: 7 delegates.
Represented by David Wu, who just endorsed Obama today, this district is based in northwestern Oregon and has some of the Portland area within it.  As it is a odd-numbered district this is a pretty safe 4-3 split for Obama unless he somehow gets to 64.3%.

OR-02: 5 delegates.
Represented by Republican (the only one) Greg Walden, this rural GOP-leaning district encompasses the entire eastern half of the state.  While Obama has fared poorly in midwestern rural areas, the rural mountain west has been strong for him, and the Survey USA breakdown shows him actually performing better outside of Portland, leading by 26% across the rest of the state.  Safe call: 3-2 Obama win here.

OR-03: 9 delegates.
Represented by Earl Blumenauer, who endorsed Obama back in February, this district is basically urban Portland, the most Democratic part of the state which explains its large delegate count.  Obama would have to break 61.1% here to achieve the 6-3 split, which is possible, but unlikely.  A safer bet is a 5-4 delegate split achieved by Obama winning a simple majority of the vote.

OR-04: 7 delegates.
Represented by Pete DeFazio, who is neutral, this district covers the westen side of the state below the Portland area.  Obama performed well in the California counties that border this district, and due to his statewide strength I think it is unlikely that Clinton will snag this district.  4-3 Obama, unless it turns into a rout and he hits 64.3%.

OR-05: 6 delegates.
Represented by retiring Darlene Hooley, who endorsed Clinton, this district includes southern suburbs of Portland as well as the state capitol Salem.  Even if Clinton wins this district on account of the endorsement (unlikely), she would have to get 58.33% to break it in her favor.  I don't think Obama will do that either.  3-3 it is.

...

All together that's 29-23 for Obama as long as he wins the state by a solid 10% margin.  If the margin falls to 8% then Obama splits the at-large and it is 28-24, unless Clinton overperforms and wins a district besides OR-05.

Will it be enough to cancel out Kentucky, which votes on the same day?  I'll take a look at that tomorrow.

cross-posted at mydd, why not?

Originally posted to Skaje on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:00 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Are you in Oregon? (0+ / 0-)

    Ad his ads running?

    Is there an organization there?

    We have wasted history like a bunch of drunks shooting dice in the men's crapper of the local bar. --Charles Bukowski, Notes of a Dirty Old Man

    by Kab ibn al Ashraf on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:02:39 PM PDT

  •  Answer (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Delevie

    Will it be enough to cancel out Kentucky, which votes on the same day?  I'll take a look at that tomorrow.

    No.  Unless Obama wins by a Wisconsin size margin in Oregon, which is very possible given Clinton comments about Iran.

    "The era of Scooter Libby justice, Brownie incompetence and Karl Rove politics will finally be over this year" Reject Marc Rich justice and Mark Penn politics.

    by IhateBush on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:02:57 PM PDT

    •  I doubt that will matter (0+ / 0-)

      I doubt that will matter to folks nearly as much as her Iraq stance.  This is a state with anti-war protests that rival those in NYC for size.  Does anyone wonder why Hillary is playing the "Green Candidate" card?  It's her chance to try and distract folks from her Iraq nonsense.

      "Polls are like crack, political activists know they're bad for them but they read them anyways."-Unkown

      by skywaker9 on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 01:27:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Obama always narrows Clinton leads (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Delevie

    Does he always widen his own leads?

    McSame, McVane, McCancient, McPocrisy, McCentury, McBush. Heard any others?

    by Michael D on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:06:31 PM PDT

    •  Often, yes (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Delevie

      See: Wisconsin, Virginia, Maryland.  

    •  often, yes (0+ / 0-)

      the effect is most pronounced in the South (results in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Virginia, South Carolina were ALL much bigger wins than expected, pointing to a jaw-dropping blowout in North Carolina on May 6), but has been well-observed elsewhere. Wisconsin is a favorite example.

      The Republican Party is neither pro-republic nor pro-party. Discuss!

      by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:14:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I am optimistic too (0+ / 0-)

      it is very possible that Obama can expand it to 15% or even close to a 20% margin, in which case he would net several more delegates.

      •  It is very possible (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Michael D, paul94611

        if Obama hits hard on Iran.  The Democrats in Oregon, I don't think will like someone who is more belligerent than John McCain.

        "The era of Scooter Libby justice, Brownie incompetence and Karl Rove politics will finally be over this year" Reject Marc Rich justice and Mark Penn politics.

        by IhateBush on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:33:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  And just as important (0+ / 0-)

          in Oregon, hit public health as a national security issue.
          This will be the best place to make this pivot in preparation for the general election as we define McCain as a Grinch that insists upon leaving American's unprotected against natural or man made public health disasters.  On top of the war in Iraq that will be on the table from N.C. he will bury Clinton as a pro neoconservative, pro war candidate.
          We are going to see Obama restate & define his Al-Qaeda is the priority in national defense in N.C..
          We are going to see Obama redefine fire prevention and other mountain west issues in Montana.
          And we are going to see Obama take the regressives to task on agriculture and food prices as a international issue in South Dakota.
          Oregon, due to its cross section of all of these factors will be the focal point of his elevation, pivot and slam of McCain & Clinton as he closes the nomination battle and hones his GE message.

    •  The comparative (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje

      metric in this case would be either; Colorado, Washington, Georgia or Minnesota, having resided in each Minnesota excepted (but visited at length).
      Remember, ten days before super Tuesday Obama was still only favored in Illinois & Georgia.
      What do you think?

      •  Washington is the closest by far (0+ / 0-)

        Trust me, Oregon and the Pacific NW ARE different.  Washington's D party is very similar to ours but GA, CO and MN are more than a bit different.

        "Polls are like crack, political activists know they're bad for them but they read them anyways."-Unkown

        by skywaker9 on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 01:25:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Would that last district (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Skaje

    perhaps have more seniors...I haven't lived in Oregon since the 90's, but I recall that was the case at the time (in comparison to Portland).

    Also, would 02 encompass the Bend retirement communities? Obama is gaining with seniors, but is still at a disadvantage with them.

    •  Basically (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      decembersue

      if Obama is winning statewide by 10%, he is probably winning every district.  Clinton may win OR-05, but it won't change the breakdown because it is an even-numbered district and would require 58% to net any delegates.  Either Obama or Clinton could win the last one and it wouldn't change the outcome.  The other four districts will give their extra delegates (since they are odd-numbered) to whoever gets a simple majority.

  •  5 - 2 for Wu! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    paul94611

    CD 02 I'd say goes 3 - 2 for Hillary not for Obama

    Agreed - leave CD 03 as is

    CD 04 includes Eugene - I think 5 - 2 is more than 50% likely

    CD 05 -- Obama will get the 59% as AFSCME in Oregon has strongly gone for him in this salem-based district.

  •  Numbers add up to 29-23 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Skaje

    Your numbers add up to 29-23. I'm assuming you're guessing that he'll do better than your 'safe prediction' in two of the districts to get to 31-21? Which districts are you predicting this for?

  •  In Oregon last weekend (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Skaje, MAORCA, ElizabethAM

    I was visiting my daugther at Reed College--her and all her friends are for Obama.  But, to put that observation in context, if Daily Kos was a college it would be Reed College.  I bet a lot of people on Kos from Oregon either graduated from Reed or dropped out of Reed.    

    Elsewhere, lots of signs of Obama.  Obama was up on TV with ads.  Saw cars with stickers and people with buttons.  I walked by Clinton's Oregon headquarters twice (once on Saturday, once on Sunday).   Saturday--two people in the office; Sunday about a half dozen phone banking.  Low energy. I did not make it to Obama's headquarters, but he has a lot of offices.  

    I have lived in Oregon and Oregon is 95% white--but that is not a bad sign for Obama.  In 1988, I voted for Jesse Jackson in the Oregon primary. Jesse got 37% of the vote that year.    

    I think Obama can blow Clinton out in the third congressional district.  I would guess 6-3.  In fact, I think Oregon can be a 60% state for Obama with work, money and luck.  

    Plan to go to Oregon again in May to work up the campaign.    

  •  that mail-in ballot I think is great (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MAORCA

    anyone got a good article on how they tabulate the votes and stuff like that, is it done right away, do they have to wait until after 5PM and just count the ones they have?

    •  Election night procedure (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MAORCA

      They will open the ballots and prepare them to be fed into the scanners ahead of time, but they don't start counting votes until polls close at 8. Then the updates come in from all the counties in real time, with Multnomah (Portland) taking the longest to complete, which usually pushes the totals more "liberal" as the night wears on.

      McSame, McVane, McCancient, McPocrisy, McCentury, McBush. Heard any others?

      by Michael D on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:54:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  obama everywhere in portland (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jhwvertigo, MAORCA

    signs on every block....i have honest to god only seen one Hillary sign in the entire city (of course i dont spend all my waking hours looking for them), but her lack of "visible" support is noticeable....and my son did see one decal in a car window....

  •  Obama buttons in Eugene (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Skaje, jhwvertigo, MAORCA

    I've been wearing an Obama '08 button wherever I go and hardly a day goes by that someone doesn't notice and strike up a conversation, often leading to the question of "where can I get a button?"  So I've started carrying a few extra buttons around. ;)

    “Hillary: Get Elected or Lie Tryin’.” -- Bill Maher

    by winsock on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:07:23 PM PDT

  •  Crosspost at myDD (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Skaje

    Interesting that only two people rec'd this diary over there (it was only one until I joined the crowd :-)

    The comments on most of the myDD frontpage stories are actually fairly reasonable - there's a small but vocal Obama crowd trying to bring some balance there. But the Rec List over there looks like Taylor Marsh or Hillaryis44 most days.

    Someday, someone will write a sociological study of the DKos/MyDD split of 2008...

    •  we do what we can (0+ / 0-)

      to keep the balance over there.  But Jerome encourages the nasty atmosphere by propping up the worst of GOP smears against Obama and putting Clinton talking points on the front page (such as her already being ahead in popular vote).  There's a handful of nasty trolls there (some of them that have already been banned but were reinstated for god knows why) that poison the atmosphere.  Some of them even dominate the rec list.

      In a few weeks that site is going to have a nasty crash when Obama blows past Clinton in North Carolina.

  •  Obama easy in or-3 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jhwvertigo

    Portland's going to go big for O. I frankly don't think 7-2 is out of the question,
    But 6-3 seems safe to me. There is no clinton presence.

    •  The SUSA internals (0+ / 0-)

      only show Obama up by 8 in Portland area (up by 26 in rest of state).  I have a hunch Survey USA is underestimating his support here, but until other polls confirm my suspicions, I'm predicting +10 statewide, in which case I don't see how he gets above 61% there.  If he starts pushing the state to Wisconsin numbers, then all bets are off and he's going to start breaking the barriers and getting more delegates.

  •  Hillary will get flogged here (0+ / 0-)

    There is not a single major politician with clout (no Kulongoski has virtually no clout) for Hillary whereas Earl Blumenauer, both US Senate candidates and a bunch of other high-ranking Oregon Ds are for Obama.  Oregon loves new progressive leaders and really doesn't trust insiders like Hillary.

    I think Obama will win AT LEAST 60% of the vote statewide and I'd think closer to 65%.

    "Polls are like crack, political activists know they're bad for them but they read them anyways."-Unkown

    by skywaker9 on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 01:10:18 AM PDT

  •  I'm going to agree that Oregon is Obama country (0+ / 0-)

    Each congressional district embodies some core Obama constituency that will come out in droves for him

    Portland represents the affluent, educated urban area that will come out strongly for Obama.  The way Portland goes is the way state contests go, simply because there are so many people.

    Eugene will also go strongly Obama - you have a strong, core base of educated liberals (owing to the University), along with the University community that includes about 20,000 people.  South Eugene, in particular, will go big Obama.

    Like someone else said upthread, I think the rural areas of Oregon will look much like the Mountain West - race is simply not an issue in that part of the state, so a lot of the rural biases that you might have seen in Appalachia won't apply.  This is not Hillary's base.

    I'm not as sure about Salem or Bend, but the three strongholds of Eugene, Portland and the rural Eastern part of the country will be enough to deliver a strong Obama win.  

    That's my guess as an Oregonian, at least

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