Indy Star/WTHR Poll Has Obama Up (w/in MOE)

As we know, Indiana could be decisive.

From the Indy Star:

Sen. Barack Obama holds a narrow lead over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in Indiana, with the outcome of the May 6 primary likely in the hands of a large number of undecided voters, according to a new Indianapolis Star-WTHR poll.

The poll showed that Obama — helped in particular by strong backing from black voters — is leading Clinton 41 percent to 38 percent among likely Democratic primary voters. But given the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points, this race is either candidate’s to win or lose.

Perhaps the most surprising thing in the poll is that Obama would beat McCain in Indiana if the election were held today:

Among Hoosiers who said they would vote in the general election — a statewide sample of voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points — Obama beat McCain 49 percent to 41 percent. Clinton broke even with McCain, with both backed by 46 percent of those polled.

Though Indiana is turning purple, I don't think for a second that Obama will carry Indiana over McCain, but it's encouraging.

But as far as the Obama/Clinton race, this poll shows us what we all know. It's going to be close in Indiana, Obama has a good shot to win, and Hoosier who support Obama need to get to work and work hard for the next week and a half so we can help bring this race to an end.

If you live in Indiana, canvass and call. If you don't have the time, talk to people you know who are potential Obama supporters to persuade them and then make sure they vote.

Obama will win Indiana IF we work our asses off to make it happen!

•  Tips?

  For a story that really is breaking (it was released 10 minutes ago).

  by BillyZoom on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:16:26 PM PDT

•  Great news...

  It's also important, strategically, to create fights in useta be "safe" GOP states...if only to make them spend money that they wouldn't have had to spend.  Particularly with the kind of money that Obama may be bringing to the table.  So...even if Indiana does go McCain, Obama could make them spend spend spend...this is a great thing.

  by mayan on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:18:03 PM PDT

  •  Yet another article

    That reminds voters of the Race Chasm.

    I call ish.

    by Craig Hickman on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:45:43 PM PDT

•  I'd tip you if you wouldn't dismiss his chances

  November.  Why the hell the not?

  by PrometheusSpeaks on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:18:21 PM PDT

  •  I live in Indiana.

    Indiana hasn't supported a Democrat in the general since 1964. At the presidential level it hasn't been competitive and I don't think it will be this year, no matter who is the nominee.

    by BillyZoom on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:20:13 PM PDT

    •  A few things are different this year. n/t

      by NWTerriD on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:31:35 PM PDT

    •  I think it will be competitive.

      Obama probably won't win Indiana, but he can certainly keep the Republicans on defense there.  With how strained their resources are..

      by Setrak on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:31:40 PM PDT

    •  What are Bush's numbers there?

      Personally I think any state where Bush is under 50 favorable is open to a Dem upset. This year is like no other. Many Repugs will be sitting it out. Many, many Dems will be FIRED UP. Change is in the wind.

      by Contra on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:34:28 PM PDT

      •  In Indiana Bush's numbers are below 50

        by gnwmann on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:38:15 PM PDT

        •  Your sig says it all. n/t

          by juca on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:50:46 PM PDT

    •  Hey, Billy! Ever watch Hoosiers?

      Obama's had a few rough weeks and he's up on McCain now.  Who knows?  If Dennis Hopper can get sober and Jimmy Chitwood joins Team Obama...

      by PrometheusSpeaks on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:42:03 PM PDT

      •  PS

        God, I hate to admit this, but I have never seen Hoosiers. I'm a bad Hoosier!

        But I get your point and hope you're right!

        by BillyZoom on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:50:32 PM PDT

        •  Rent it! It's a classic!

          OBAMA!

          by PrometheusSpeaks on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 09:45:08 PM PDT

    •  So with Obama polling well against

      McCain... we can assume that Indiana Republicans really, really hate McCain but will probably end up voting for him in the end?

      by juca on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:49:24 PM PDT

      •  Yeah,

        that's my take.

        You nailed it, I think.

        by BillyZoom on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:58:15 PM PDT

      •  There are still a lot of Paul signs/stickers

        At least here in my neck of the woods prairie endless cornfields suburban sprawl.  They came out early, like December.  People still have them on their cars, lawns, etc.  

        Obama stickers are popping up, with a few Clinton sightings as well.

        Mrs. Praxxus told me the other day that she say a McCain sticker on the back of a pick-em-up truck, but I have yet to see any McCain paraphernalia for myself.

        by Praxxus on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 09:32:49 PM PDT

    •  1964 Was Also the Last Year

      a Democrat running for President got a majority of the white vote. Last time a northern Democrat won was JFK in 1960. Number of Presidents in entire history of America that were NOT white men---ZERO! Says a lot about the Land of the Free and the Brave. If Obama wins, it will explode every history book ever written about this country. I will vote for that "Explosion".

      by mcartri on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 09:35:27 PM PDT

•  Poll that close with 21% undecided

  doesn't tell you much.

  by converse on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:19:14 PM PDT

  •  It tells you there are 21% undecided

    Which is the number most relevant to determining how much you stand to gain by campaigning there.

    In a sturated polarized race, you don't gain many votes because most minds are already made up. But in a situation like Indiana currently has, campaigning is likely to have a much more dramatic effect.

    by Jaiwithani on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:27:32 PM PDT

    •  Lot of that depends on the poll questions.

      Haven't looked at it, but sounds like they're not pinning folks down on preference.

      by converse on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:30:03 PM PDT

    •  and we've seen that

      once Obama starts campaigning, he picks up voters.

      by NWTerriD on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:32:18 PM PDT

  •  Doesn't tell you anything but the truth

    It's a totally open primary, lots of uncertainty.  Who will show up?  How many Repukes will vote strategically?  They don't know themselves yet.  Obama's floor is 41 and Clinton's is 38.  That's what the poll is saying.

    by nieman on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:29:01 PM PDT

  •  21% undecided tells me

    that 1/5 of Hoosiers are not bloggers. They may not even be the same species as bloggers.

    Seriously, who can answer "I don't know" at this point?

    by Michael D on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:34:13 PM PDT

    •  Ha!

      They're Hoosiers. They're off making a living and never imagined that IN would play a role in this process.

      The undecideds always confound me, but in this case I kinda understand. They're used to having no voice in the process, so many haven't been paying attention.

      by BillyZoom on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:43:51 PM PDT

•  a few problems

  41 + 38 = 79
  100 - 79 = 21

  21% undecided? that's a lot, but maybe plausible right now

  also: obama BEATING mccain right now?, that is very difficult to believe

  do you have a link to the methodology of the poll? and the sample size

  by aaronlev14 on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:19:52 PM PDT

  •  Yeah, the undecided numbers are huge

    And I have a hard time believing that Obama is up on McCain as well.

    The poll was just released and I don't see a link on the IndyStar's page describing the methodology, though I suspect it might be updated. They wanted to get the story up at the same time as WTHR's news, so I imagine they may post something on the poll's methodology.

    by BillyZoom on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:22:40 PM PDT

    •  Billy Zoom...

      Slightly off topic, but since you're from Indy, what are your thoughts on how much of an effect the Limbaugh vote will have?  I don't want to mucking go through that again.  PS - Limbaugh is a fat nasty bastard.  Sorry, had to throw that in.  

      by JTRicher on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:33:32 PM PDT

      •  Yeah.. he wont affect Indy much

        by gnwmann on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:39:37 PM PDT

      •  Speaking of Limbaugh....

        He criticized Governor Mitch Daniels today, because Daniels made comments at a recent event, stating the Republicans need to move themselves past the days of Ronald Reagan and into the future. I know that Mitch is running close with in the November election, but I don't think that the Limbaugh comments will go over well with Daniels supporters. As far as the Primary, I think all eyes might be on Center Township in Indianapolis, which was Julia Carson's territory, now Andre Carson's stomping grounds. Most of the time, this township has been the tipping point for the mayoral, sheriff's, and congressional races. With Andre endorsing Obama, Center Township could come in play again.  

        by indydem72 on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 09:20:16 PM PDT

•  Obama could win the Gen in Indiana - how to spin

  cmon Terry Mac - how do you spin that one?

  by sweetmags on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:20:13 PM PDT

  •  Indiana doesn't count

    Full of latte-sipping elitist proud African Americans. Probably voted for Jesse Jackson in gold-plated voting booths, built using the slave labor of hard-working blue collar Americans.

    by Jaiwithani on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:29:24 PM PDT

    •  Blacks.

      Always keeping the white man down.

      by Michael D on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:37:07 PM PDT

•  Yes he can

  Though Indiana is turning purple, I don't think for a second that Obama will carry Indiana over McCain, but it's encouraging.

  Please, let's stop ceding things to people who we know are wrong.  Obama definitely can challenge and beat McCain in Indiana.

  by Sun dog on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:20:34 PM PDT

  •  I hope you're right! n/t

    by BillyZoom on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:23:15 PM PDT

    •  Me too

      But I'm an Iowan who was originally from Illinois where my family still lives and I lived in Colorado for a decade.  

      I know he shouldn't have been able to win that Democratic nomination for that seat in Illinois, but he did.  

      I saw and was part of what he did in Iowa last year.  There is no way he should have been able to beat Hillary and John Edwards in Iowa.  No freaking way at the start of that 10 month battle should he have been able to top Clinton in Iowa where the Clinton Administration is looked back on fondly.  Or Edwards who made great connections in 04, built a campaign for years and is really well liked here.  

      We were sweating bullets in the weeks leading up to the caucus.  But on Jan 3rd, in my precinct we beat both of them by 2 to 1.  The biggest problem I had in negotiating with the roomful of non-viable Richardson supporters was that they were so pissed off that we'd brought in so many people that their 60 was a non-viable number.  

      And then there is Colorado where I lived and voted against Bush twice while watching my state go for him.  Obama will be the one to bring Colorado in.  

      That's my perspective on it.  I was in the room with Obama at least seven different times in different kinds of situations and felt how he wins people over.  

      I just can't believe that he won't find a way to contrast himself in a positive way with John McCain to the point where all but a few states are  going to be in play.  

      And Indiana is right next door to Illinois.  

      Besides, if I'm wrong and he doesn't get all the way over the top, believing it's possible and running a passionate, robust campaign will help Indiana Democrats on the ticket.  Telling people that there is no chance is not going to bring the throngs.   A sense of possibility beyond what we've had to deal with.  That's what he won Iowa with.  The slogans are not empty in this campaign.   They can be very self-fulfilling.

      Anyway, good luck.  

      by Sun dog on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:36:34 PM PDT

    •  Hey: Northwest Indiana

      is basically a suburb of BHO's hometown.

      Influence of Chicago media...

      Obama's appeal in midwestern states like ND, SD, and Kansas....

      It's got possibilities...

      by nicejoest on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:37:07 PM PDT

      •  No, look..

        the point in Indiana is to make it harder on the Rethugs and make them spend cash here.  And hurt the Rethugs on down the ballot.  

        And just being next door to IL doesn't help.  Indiana is more like MI in the north and KY in the south...

        by gnwmann on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:41:32 PM PDT

        •  Silly me.

          We should just give up in Indiana now and forever.

          by nicejoest on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:50:19 PM PDT

  •  Especially When Things Like This Are Going On...

    http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpoi...

    In a major upset that shows just how strong opposition to the Iraq War is in even very red states, the Democratic candidate came out on top in the first round of the special election to succeed Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) in his old House seat, in a district that by all rights should have had an outright win for the Republican candidate.

    Democrat Travis Childers finished with 49% of the vote in last night's special election, Republican Greg Davis 46%, and the remainder going to the defeated candidates from the primaries for the regular election in November, plus third-party candidates. Without anybody getting 50% of the vote, this goes to a runoff in three weeks.
                               ****
    Bear in mind, this is a huge upset in a district that voted 62%-37% for President Bush in 2004, and where the last Democrat to represent the place was Jamie Whitten, who spent a good part of his career as an old-time Southern conservative segregationist. And with the DCCC beating the Republicans in the money game, the Dems will have a lot of money to bring to bear for the runoff.

    by majcmb1 on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:59:58 PM PDT

•  Yeah, GE's a long shot.

  But Ann Selzer showing him up by 8?  Even if there's a 7 point Bradley effect in IN, Obama's leading.  Not too shabby.

  by nieman on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:20:44 PM PDT

•  Obama would have a shot at Indiana

  He'll get a bump when Hillary drops out, and I would think he'd do very well in Indy and Gary. I'm thinking now that the dems have a ground game to contend with the GOP (and maybe even better, if you can imagine) we may be in for a few surprises. Indiana could be one of them.

  by frankzappatista on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:22:25 PM PDT

•  Any poll showing

  O over H is a good poll in my view...  Although I am skeptical that O is really up 8 on McSame and could put Indiana in play, that may not be so far fetched if O is polling well with Indies, which may explain this.  Another upside, of course, is how it presents another example of fucking up H's silly he's not electable argument.  Really?  8 point swing against you.    

  by JTRicher on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:23:41 PM PDT

•  You know the best thing about this poll...

  Selzer & Co.

  It's a good poll, folks. This is the same pollster as the one that nailed the Iowa caucuses.

  by ttujoe on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:26:27 PM PDT

  •  4th poll showing Obama up in a row

    The Downs Center/SUSA, LA Times, Research 2000, and Selzer/Indy Star polls have all showed Obama up 1-5 points.

    by Fro on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 09:43:57 PM PDT

•  "Women" doesn't make much sense

  Clinton is doing well among white women, who back her 48 percent to 29 percent. Among all women, though, Obama is slightly edging her out, 41 percent to 40 percent.

  I just don't find the latter numbers to be credible.

  by Scarce on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:27:46 PM PDT

  •  Non-white women...

    In Indiana they're mainly Black.  So...what's the problem with the poll?

    by nieman on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:30:37 PM PDT

    •  Pretty easy, more white women are undecided

      Most African-American women are decided and for Obama.

      by Fro on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 09:47:18 PM PDT

  •  Indiana has a larger AA population

    and race has been a stronger predictor of voting patterns than sex in this primary.

    by Jaiwithani on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:31:29 PM PDT

    •  Is it just me

      Or is anyone else surprised to learn that there are a lot of African Americans in Indiana?

      by Michael D on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:39:38 PM PDT

      •  Indianapolis is about 25% AA

        The rest of the state, not so much.

        by Scarce on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:42:37 PM PDT

        •  Not true....

          2005 Census showed Indiana was 89.57% white and 9.42% AA.  See Wikipedia link: Link  Unless you're talking about % democratic primary turnout.  If that's true, I'm feeling good about O's chances, but I think the AA dem primary turnout number is closer to 14-15%.  

          by JTRicher on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:51:22 PM PDT

          •  As to Indianapolis,

            Yes, Wikipedia says 2005 census said 25% AA, which is good and nicejoest points out Gary, Gary, Gary, which is 84.03%.  GOTV is key.  

            by JTRicher on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:55:34 PM PDT

        •  Also Gary.

          Gary, Indiana, Gary, Indiana, Gary, Indiana.

          by nicejoest on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:51:48 PM PDT

        •  I'd imagine a lot of votes in a

          Democratic primary come from Indianapolis. Marion County(Indianapolis) and Lake County have a lot of Democratic votes.

          by jj32 on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:54:55 PM PDT

      •  omg.. we have an AA population statewide of like

        5-10 %.. don't count on them carrying stuff. The Hispanic population has outstripped them.

        by gnwmann on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:42:55 PM PDT

  •  Depends on how many black women

    vote in the Democratic primary in Indiana. I can see Obama winning them by an overwhelming margin.  

    by jj32 on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:31:59 PM PDT

  •  Midwest women haven't supported HRC like

    the coastal women, or at least that's what I recall from looking at data.  She carries them, but at a lower rate.

    As for the "total woman" number, that's black women pulling HRC down and lifting BHO up.

    Credible?  

    We'll see on the 6th.  HRC won't, I think, carry women at a 2/1 clip like she has in PA and OH.

    by Kab ibn al Ashraf on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:32:31 PM PDT

  •  Indiana is only about 8-9% AA

    That's a huge turnout to overcome white women voters, maybe over 100%.

    by Scarce on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:35:45 PM PDT

    •  Population doesn't necessarily equal turnout

      AA's accounted for 50% of the South Carolina turnout, but only make up around 35-40% of the population.

      It's more a matter of what percent of the democrats in IN are AA's

      by jamtown on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:41:53 PM PDT

      •  Here's the example

        We'll use 100,000 though of course the numbers will be much larger.

        Say 80% of the women voting are white, 20% are non-white (African American, Hispanic (non white). And Clinton wins those white women voters on the order of 50,000-30,000 based on this polling data. Obama would need 100% of the remaining voters (20,000) for him to pull even.

        So, spotting him 100% and doubling the expected demographic turnout to reach a higher turnout seems a tall order.

        That is what I was getting at.

        by Scarce on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 09:02:29 PM PDT

    •  Need more info

      Dont know much about Indiana. If a lot of white women in IN are Republicans, that means black women could make up a significant percentage of the Democratic electorate in the state.  

      by jj32 on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:49:24 PM PDT

•  The Obama camp needs to come hard with

  these polls on the airwaves tomorrow.

  wreck the electability crap that the Clinton camp is trying to throw out there.

  by duha on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:28:41 PM PDT

  •  I disagree

    Don't turn Indiana into "Obama is bound to win" state. Make Clinton take another last stand (as in Texiho and Pennsylvania), only in neutral territory instead of Clinton country.

    If Obama really does have this lead, but the Clinton camp keeps pushing the importance of Indiana, it should be enough to end the campaign.

    Therefore, don't play up this poll. Look at it, smile, then burn it and get back to work.

    by Jaiwithani on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:34:04 PM PDT

    •  I think it's more important at this time to

      get the media back to the reality that Obama is winning this nomination.

      The Clinton camp is trying hard to make it seem like Obama is fading, or that the race is neck and neck, or that Wright + bitter have severely damaged Obama.

      These polls expose the Clinton talking points for the BS that it is.

      It also gives the supers more cover to come out now, reinforcing that Obama is still the most electable candidate for the fall.  

      Obviously he's going to work hard, it's not like being up +1 or +3 is going to stop that.  Obama already called Indiana a tiebraker, so he already put it out there that Indiana is important, whether that was right or wrong to say.

      by duha on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:54:45 PM PDT

•  Kerry lost Indiana 39%-60%

  ..and the democrats have not won Indiana since 1964. Polls showing Obama down 7-10% seem much more credible at this point.

  by Scarce on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:30:45 PM PDT

  •  but Dems haven't nominated

    a Midwesterner (other than 49-state disaster Mondale) since Truman, who barely lost Indiana in 1948. It's clera that Obama's Illinois-ness has won him some support throughout the Midwest: check how he polls against McCain in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan compared with Clinton. I think he could keep Indiana competitive.

    by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:37:12 PM PDT

•  I think there was another poll out that had

  Obama by just 1%. So it looks close, but IN seem to be more Obama friendly terrain than PA.

  by jj32 on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:30:54 PM PDT

  •  It is...

    IN borders IL and the sociology of Dems in Indiana is different, I think.

    I get the sense that in PA, the Reagan Dems still identify as Dems. In IN, I think they have identified as GOPers since the 80s.

    by BillyZoom on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:35:35 PM PDT

    •  yeah

      In general, Hillary had a lot of things going for her in PA. The primary was overwhelming women, and older voters. PA has the second oldest population. Plus, she had the Democratic machine behind her. I'm not from IN, but it appears Obama could do well in NW IN, which borders the Chicago area, and in Indianapolis, where Rep. Carson appears to have a GOTV machine that he will have getting voters out to support him in the congressional primary and Obama in the presidential primary.

      by jj32 on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:42:04 PM PDT

•  When was the poll conducted? n/t

  by NWTerriD on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:30:58 PM PDT

  •  Sunday through Wednesday. n/t

    by BillyZoom on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:37:07 PM PDT

    •  Yikes.

      I hope we'll see another one that's got more post-PA info.

      by NWTerriD on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:40:17 PM PDT

•  Not Surprised

  I've been commentating ad nauseam for several weeks here that Obama will win Indiana. It isn't a mortal lock like North Carolina, but if he campaigns hard here, he'll win by about 4-5 points. He also has a huge organizational advantage here, with a huge grassroots army of volunteers and he will have the Carson turnout machine in Indianapolis behind him.  

  This is also the fourth straight poll in the last week that has shown him ahead, and he has only had 15 events here to the Clintons 50.  

  People know him in this state, since Illinois is next door, and we like him enough to put him over the top.

  by Sakuraba on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:31:21 PM PDT

•  Beating McCain

  before he even campaign and debates him.

  Is that sweat I see on McCain's brow?

  by ZappoDave on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:32:15 PM PDT

  •  Debating

    Neither McCain nor Obama are amazing debaters. McCain will take an elder statesman approach, and everyone will be trying to pin the "rookie" label on Obama. He's gotten much better after his sparring matches with Clinton (the PA 'debate' excepted)

    by Jaiwithani on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:47:20 PM PDT

•  SUSA's last poll had McCain over

  Obama by 7% in IN, and I think up 11% or something over Hillary. The fact that Obama keeps a state that went to Bush by 21% within single digits is huge though. That's good for the House candidates, and might force McCain to spend time there.

  by jj32 on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:34:40 PM PDT

•  Other than SUSA, has any poll shown him behind?

  There were two SUSA poll, one with him behind 16 points and one with him ahead by a few points. They used different methodologies, and it's never really been cleared up on which was more accurate.

  Other than the first SUSA poll, I believe every IN poll has shown Obama ahead.

  Even the strange poll from several months ago had him ahead by double digits.

  by jamtown on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 08:46:12 PM PDT

  •  ARG showed him behind 9

    But that was at the beginning of the month and we know ARG sucks as a pollster.

    by Fro on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 09:57:57 PM PDT

    •  Very true

      ARG was the only poll to show Obama down in Wisconsin until the very end when they had a huge swing toward Obama.

      by smartguy11 on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 01:53:56 PM PDT

•  black % is the same BUT

  they make up a  higher % of dem voters thats what matters.

  by nevadadem on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 09:00:21 PM PDT

•  The ge number is very important as it shows HRC's

  support among "rural voters" in Indiana is illusory.  If she was doing as well as she says she should be the one, not Obama, who has a lead or at least fares better with McCain in Indiana.  What I think this shows is that HRC's ability to gain Obama supporters in the ge is much more problematic than Obama's ability to get HRC supporters.  Long story short, after Obama gets the nom expect the ge numbers versus McCain to increase significantly to double digit leads for Obama and a number of states (read Montana, Alaska, VA, NC, etc.,) to start trending Dem.  Very very intersting numbers.

  by True Independent on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 09:43:47 PM PDT

•  If Obama sweeps the upper midwest...

  ...in the general, he's going to probably win in a landslide.

  by metal prophet on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 10:50:33 PM PDT