Swiftboating, Obama, and the agenda

This is a sort of rebuttal to icebergslim's well-written diary on why Wright's comments don't matter, and about how those who think otherwise are somehow "new to politics." I'd like to go over some recent history to show that the Rev. Wright issue isn't just going to go away; or, that if it is destined to fade into the aether, that it might do so too late.

"Last I heard, we are the frontrunner and winning.
Last I heard, Clinton is begging for a debate and won't get it.
Last I heard, we have the pledged delegate lead and popular vote lead.
Last I heard, we got more MONEY."

Let me drop a bombshell on you: it doesn't matter that we have the most pledged delegates. It doesn't matter that the voters are going to choose Barack Obama. All that matters is what the superdelegates will do. You, the Clinton supporters, and I all know it.

Think about it. What is the only way for Obama to lose? It's impossible that he will not stroll into Denver with the most pledged delegates, so the only thing between him and the nomination is a hypothetical group of scared superdelegates.

What might those superdelegates be concerned about? Maybe Obama's competence as the head of a presidential campaign? No. It's clear that Obama has run a stellar campaign. He outsmarted Clinton by allocating lots of resources in caucus states, and delivered a message to the American people that resulted in a huge amount of donations.

Maybe SD's will get cold feet over Obama's inability to "win big states." Nah, probably not. There are too many counter-arguments for them to consider: the fact that Obama won among independents in most of those states, or that states like California and New York are solidly Democratic.

No. There is only one thing that could cost Obama the nomination, and that thing is Jeremiah Wright. Icebergslim believes that "November is going to be about the American public's interest, gas prices, lost jobs, Iraq, food prices, losing homes." He believes that the Wright issue is going to go away, with time.

And he may be right. But let me tell you what superdelegates might remember when making their decision.

They will remember John Kerry. They will remember that he lost for two reasons: one, because he was a Johnny-come-lately on issues like the war, and two, because a group of his former comrades-in-arms cast doubt on the integrity of his war record.

I define "swiftboating" as the attack of a candidate's strongest trait through any means necessary. It is the most effective campaign strategy, period. Not only does it sway independents from joining the "swiftboatee's" side, but it also shakes the base's faith in their candidate.

If you take away one concept from this diary, let it be this: Jeremiah Wright is to Barack Obama as The Swift Boat Veterans for Truth were to John Kerry. The veterans cast doubt on John Kerry's most positive quality -- his military record. Rev. Wright, as long as he has any association with the Obama campaign, casts doubt on Obama's message of unity, which is incidentally the reason I joined Obama's cause in the first place.

Remember, we wanted the 2004 election to be about the war, about the real issues. But it turned into a discussion on the character of John Kerry.

I might remind you that we don't set the agenda for the general election discussion. The news media does. And a living, breathing, fiery element like Rev. Wright is a heck of a lot more entertaining to cover than the latest soldiers who died in Iraq, or health care, or any of the other "real issues."

It is doubtful that the superdelegates would overturn the will of the people, no matter what Obama's pastor says or does. But if Obama loses the nomination, it will be due to Rev. Wright.

•  So what does Obama do about it?

  I don't know. He's a smarter man than I.

  by motbob on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:37:09 PM PDT

  •  Deny Obama the nomination and watch

    The party totally implode. I mean totally implode. What does he do about it--attack the media. I mean attack them. Say that it isn't interesting to them because they're a bunch of elitists enjoying their capital gains tax breaks. Rip them to shreds. And focus on the issues people care about while doing it.

    by The Bagof Health and Politics on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 07:11:57 PM PDT

•  Psst. icebErgslim. n/t

  by MTmofo on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:41:59 PM PDT

  •  Thanks

    by motbob on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:44:00 PM PDT

    •  And "he" is a she n/t

      by aisling on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 07:05:47 PM PDT

•  No question

  Wright is a problem. But iceberg has a huge point in putting it into perspective. Wright can only derail Obama if he lets it happen, and I respectfully submit he's too smart for that.

  by MBNYC on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:42:01 PM PDT

•  Feh.

  The more Wright talks, the more opportunity the Obama campaign has to disavow what he's saying.  They can make counterpoints without needing to hit him hard.

  Reeee-lax.  We've got a good enough nominee (and he is the nominee) that we don't need to fret so much about the bright lights shining on him.

  by Pegasus on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:42:50 PM PDT

  •  Relaxing right now

    thank you! Excellent point.

    by dtruth on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 08:30:01 PM PDT

•  If Obama loses the nomination

  it will be because the SDs have no faith in the American people's ability to rise above the race issue, and the outrage you see now will be nothing compared to what you will see in Denver in August.  

  The reaction to Rev Wright is a symptom, not the cause.  Let's focus on helping America stand up for its ideals and move beyond the race issue once and for all.  

  by jlynne on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:43:00 PM PDT

•  You have to ask the question...

  Why has this campaign derailed in the direction of an old school, popular, fiery pastor?  Why has the Wright issue become obsessional?

  by appletree on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:43:06 PM PDT

  •  Because of the media

    Which we cannot control. It was the same in 2004: the media took the Swift Boat issue and covered it until it became the greatest source of free advertising any campaign had ever seen.

    by motbob on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:46:35 PM PDT

  •  Faulty premise.

    Why has this campaign derailed...

    I must have slept through the part where it derailed.  To my eyes, it's chugging right along.  Wrightgate 1.0 didn't do a goddamn thing to his poll numbers, no reason to think 2.0 will be any different.  Old news by now.

    by Pegasus on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:47:34 PM PDT

  •  Because talking about Iraq is depressing

    And they need to protect their Capital Gains tax breaks.

    by The Bagof Health and Politics on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 07:13:08 PM PDT

•  REc'd for content analysis and fairness...

  by dvogel001 on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:44:31 PM PDT

•  How sad

  We finally get a candidate who is smart, has some reasonably new ideas, certainly a new way of thinking about things, who is inspiring, and all the rest.

  And because of one person- Wright in this case- one person who have never and will never run for office.  Because Barack Obama happened to choose that church to attend 20 year ago- the superdelegates and this country are ready to throw it all down the shitter for four more years of what we've had for at least four decades.

  How fucking pathetically sad.  If this nation goes down that road because of one minister with a big mouth, who in the long term means absolutely shit, then this country deserves everything it gets in the years to come- whether it be four years of total gridlock under Hillary, or four years of war, deficits, and more GOP fascism under McCain.

  We deserve it.  

  There is simply no capability left in this country to truly understand what matters and what does matter.

  This nation has become its own worst enemy.

  I am fucking fed up.

  by oxfdblue on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:45:42 PM PDT

•  Perhaps the good Reverend is a fan...

  of Bill & Hill?  I do recall seeing at least one photo of Reverend Wright at a Clinton White House reception.  Oh, they couldn't have looked that far ahead...could they?

  It's an Obamanation!

  by birds and bees on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:55:52 PM PDT

•  Media Swift-boating

  We'll have to see if Americans fall for it again.  So far they haven't.  And so far corporate media is out of control and a true disgrace to this nation.

  by Fools on the Hill on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:56:25 PM PDT

  •  Indeed, they are a disgrace

    Their lynching parties are truly ugly.

    by The Bagof Health and Politics on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 07:14:16 PM PDT

•  If Obama loses the nomination because of Wright

  How does Clinton win the votes of people who believe that Obama losing the nomination because of Wright is complete and utter bullshit?

  If Obama loses the nomination because of Wright, John McCain wins in November in a cakewalk.

  Among other things, McCain's campaign (via surrogates), will continually remind people that the Democrats through Reverend Wright under the bus.

  by Bill White on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:57:55 PM PDT

•  Obama already won the nomination

  The nomination fight ended with Wisconsin.
  The fight is now about McCain and the republicans.
  If not Wright they'll find something else. Maybe Obama college girlfriend.
  They'll find distractions and they'll run with them.
  Thats what they do. They would be doing it to Hillary now but they realize shes not a threat to them right now.

  by zezefe on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 07:17:13 PM PDT

•  Perhaps Obama pens an...

  Op-Ed piece, as an open letter to his former pastor, pointing out that it was he who defended Rev. Wright even thought he didn't always agree with all of the pastor's views.  Obama offered the explanation that Rev. Wright's experiences through years of tumultuous civil-rights struggles informed many of those views.  It was Obama who refused to denounce the pastor outright and often praised him for his many good works both within the Chicago community and beyond.  

  But sadly, he might say, Rev. Wright's most recent comments in which he has said that Obama merely says what a politician must say, based on "polling and electability" suggest, in the most indisputable terms, that Obama is a shallow and insincere man.  

  This false depiction of Obama, by someone whom he thought of as a friend, cannot go unchallenged.  It is untrue and it is insulting.  Rev. Wright's opinion of Obama appears to be one that the pastor holds toward all politicians.  Whatever good Obama has done within the Chicago community and beyond seems to be irrelevant to Wright.  

  Now, having learned through these recent remarks how Mr. Wright actually feels toward Obama leaves the Senator with little choice.  Notwithstanding his heartfelt appreciation for the pastor's bringing him to Christ, it is with deepest regrets that he must face the fact that their friendship is a thing of the past.  

  by TexanJane on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 07:40:51 PM PDT