Obama needs 295 delegates,Clinton needs 431

This is going to be fairly brief.
Many people seem to be losing their composure and starting to panic. I thought this glaring scoreboard might help settle some nerves. This will not be an in depth analysis of the microtrending electorate in  east wherethefukawi, Indiana and the devastation to Barack's campaign caused by the garden gnome sex tape. I know. It was horrid and game changing, but for the love of God people, can we just try to get past it and look at 4th quarter score? The scoreboard in my title beats the hell out of the Barack on Fox^TM countdown clock. Could some Frontpager make a widget with this running score? It is simple and it explains it pretty well.

Pink Floyd's pig just endorsed Barack. I think that is way cooler than Elton John's endorsement. Basically, if we as a country fail to get this guy in office, we are a bunch of pushovers and we deserve our Corporate Overlords because it would prove we have completely lost our bearings and reasoning.

What is important is that we get someone in office to save our Constitution. I think a Constitutional Professor(Yeah, I know he didn't take a tenured position, shut up)might just fit the bill. The guy is great. I don't expect him to be perfect.As an ex-San Francisco bike messenger I don't want to hear about any more busses and getting thrown under them.Elect Obama and Move On.

In conclusion, I made these calculations based on RCP delegate numbers. If anyone happens to know the amount of delegates left in play please post it.

•  Tipping

  15% is fine.

  by woodstock007 on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:56:55 PM PDT

  •  Mmm, dry wit. I approve.

    Very funny post and a great poll.  Thanks for the numbers.  I can't count that high with my fingers on the keyboard so this helped a lot.

    by Freedoms Road on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:32:18 AM PDT

  •  without FL & MI

    there are 703 delegates left to be had (408 pledged and 295 super). By my count, Obama leads in pledged delegates 1489-1337 and 1727-1598 including supers. To overcome his pledged delegate lead, Clinton would have to win 280 of the outstanding 408 (69%). To overcome his overall delegate lead, she will need 415 of the remaining 703 (which includes both pledged and super; this would equate to 59% of all possible remaining delegates).

    Of course, none of this factors in Florida and Michigan. It seems very likely that both will be seated somehow, though how is the real question. Clinton is probably holding out hope that Florida will be seated as is and she will get her 73 Michigan delegates to 55 uncommitted. Somehow neither seems an attractive solution.

    by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:17:42 AM PDT

•  A countdown to victory would be nice! NT

  by humphrey on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:02:23 AM PDT

•  The panic is silly

  I think the panic is really silly.  I mean, sheesh, the "talk of impending doom" isn't even anything like it was when Wright Part I.  I think anyone who wasn't going to vote for Obama based on the first round, still won't vote for him; and the second round of stuff is uplifting for blacks (AMEN!) and a snoozer for whites.

  He really didn't say anything horrible.  A little loony, yah.  But Anti-American?  Nahhh.

  For what it's worth the Talking Heads seem to all say, "this is bad for Obama" without really putting any substance behind the argument.

  And it's not a distraction for the campaign.  It's a distraction that the media is making, that distracts the American people from all of the candidates.

  by Canadian4Obama on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:02:41 AM PDT

  •  But what was scary

    was this site today. GLOOM from hell. That is why I wrote this. Yeah I concur completely.

    by woodstock007 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:04:52 AM PDT

    •  i mostly stayed off the site

      Yesterday boggled my mind. I didn't hear any of Wright's speeches and had no clue why people were freaking out. It was really scary.

      Glad I decided to skip most of dkos yesterday. Hope for better things today. Otherwise this site needs a massive dosage of xanax before it implodes.

      by CocoaLove on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 03:34:56 AM PDT

  •  Yeah I thought that too

    From what the beloved internets would let me see from here, they were all going "yeah this is bad" but no-one was saying why or who cared.
    It sucks how the beknighted talking heads think they get to decide what's good and what's bad. That's why a grassroots campaign's the only kind that's going to work - one where we decide what's good and what isn't, so let's decide to count it down to victory!

    Do we get NYE hats and streamers and do we all drink champagne and kiss the mailroom guy when he wins the nomination??

    by AussieJo on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:43:28 AM PDT

•  Yes take a deep breath

  and re-focus on the end game. I agree the numbers do not lie and I think the super delegates are going to come in droves soon. Thank you for putting it in perspective.

  by nancat357 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:25:08 AM PDT

•  I seriously am starting to question

  this whole "netroots" thingamabob. Just seems like a fancy title for people to get together and wring their hands over every minutia that pops up.

  by edgeways on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:27:02 AM PDT

  •  Yeah

    And to propogate rumours anonymously at the speed of light. I have been thinking the same thing with all the fear trolls. What a waste of good recipes.

    by woodstock007 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:29:46 AM PDT

•  My Calculations

  The pledged delegates are currently about 1,490-1,336, but one or two might soon switch from Clinton to Obama thanks to the next level in the Washington state caucus.  The Super Delegates are currently 257-237 in favor of Clinton.  The add-ons not yet declared are likely to break in favor of Obama thanks to caucus states.  

  That will bring the total up to Obama 1,969, Clinton 1,828 with 232 regular super delegates left outstanding.  So Obama will need about 56/232 = 24% of the super delegates to get the nomination.

  by CA Pol Junkie on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:27:54 AM PDT

  •  Cool thanks for the fill in

    My goal in this was SUPER SIMPLE logic and math. I'm in the church of the sub-genius.

    by woodstock007 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:32:30 AM PDT

    •  Simple, not so much!

      The pledged delegates are relatively easy to predict.  The add-on super delegates are not easy to predict, but at least they're not random like the regular super delegates.  There was a calculation on the recommended list recently that had Obama's super delegate magic number at 43 instead of my 56.

      by CA Pol Junkie on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:42:01 AM PDT

      •  The Supercalafragilistic Delegates

        Offend my sense of real Democracy. They are not a pluralism and can be coerced, bribed, threatened or corrupted, whereas an electorate is much less likely to be corrupted.

        by woodstock007 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:45:29 AM PDT

      •  by the way

        I was referring to my simplistic math, not your obviously superior math.

        by woodstock007 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:46:47 AM PDT

•  Donna Brazile, a super delegate

  on ABC's This Week Roundtable said:

  "I talked to the same super delegates you talked to...They want to win.  They want a candidate who can beat John McCain.  At the end of the day they're going to look at the (electoral college) math...and say.."okay, who is the best candidate to take on John McCain?"  They'll look at the weaknesses of both candidates and... we will determine who will be the best President."

  AP/Ipsos Poll

  Hillary is now beating Sen. John McCain in a general election match up by a larger margin, 50% to 41%, than Barack, 46% to 44%.

  Key finding: Clinton now leads among Independents.

  http://ap.google.com/...

  by phoenixdreamz on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:30:58 AM PDT

  •  Call me naive, but overturning the popular vote

    and pledged delegates is a surefire recipe NOT to win, and Donna knows that.

    by BradF on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:36:02 AM PDT

    •  She also knows the difference between

      a clear margin of victory for the Dems, and a statistical tie. If the trend continues, the changed mood of the country will supercede any votes Obama gathered prior to his loss in perceived electability.

      Brazile is an acknowledged Obama supporter BTW.

      by phoenixdreamz on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:46:53 AM PDT

      •  There is mathematically no such thing as a

        "statistical tie" when dealing with real numbers.  "Statistical ties" only come into play when dealing with polling, sampling, and probability.  Try again.  And by the way, she's undeclared as of now.  While many of her comments have led some to believe she's an Obama supporter, there's been no solid evidence of such.

        by BradF on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:50:32 AM PDT

  •  I'll take your AP/Ipsos and raise you a

    Rasmussen.

    The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows John McCain and Barack Obama once again tied, with each attracting 46% of the vote. Four percent (4%) say they would vote for a third party option and 4% are undecided. In a match-up with Hillary Clinton, it’s McCain 47%, Clinton 44%.

    by BradF on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:41:55 AM PDT

    •  Even there

      Hillary has narrowed Obama's lead substantially as of late. And then there's..

      Newsweek Poll
      Barack's 19 point lead over Hillary has dropped to 7 points, 48% to 41%.
      Key finding: 4 in 10 registered voters now have an unfavorable opinion of him.
      http://www.newsweek.com/...

      Gallup Daily Tracking Poll
      Obama and Clinton are now statistially tied at 47%/46%.
      http://www.gallup.com/...

      PPP Poll Public Policy Polling (N. Carolina)
      Hillary Clinton has cut Barack's N. Carolina lead in half.
      http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

      SurveyUSA Poll (Indiana)
      Hillary Clinton is leading Barack Obama, 52% to 43%
      http://www.surveyusa.com/...

      by phoenixdreamz on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:49:46 AM PDT

      •  Since Super Tuesday, Barack Obama is +85 in

        superdelegates.  HRC is +5.  Your poll smorgasboard aside, I detect a clear trend in how the superdelegates are breaking.

        by BradF on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:52:54 AM PDT

        •  Ugh

          Simple Failed. We lose. GBCW

          by woodstock007 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:55:17 AM PDT

      •  Wilder spoke on this

        In an interview already.  Forget the polls.  They mean nothing in this race.  Governor Wilder spoke about this in terms of his race where he was up by like 9 points then only won by 1/2 point.  

        ``He's struggling with them in terms of the nomination,'' Wilder said. ``I don't think that struggle will emanate through the general election because they have far more in common with him than they do with the Republican candidate.''

        Still, he said, Obama should be prepared for a discrepancy between polling and election results, which came to be known as the ``Wilder effect'' after the 1989 race.

        Previously, it had been dubbed the ``Bradley effect'' after Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley's 1982 gubernatorial loss in an election that polls had projected him to win. In both cases, exit surveys were inaccurate, leading pollsters to conclude that some white voters gave misleading answers to conceal racial prejudice. Polls before the Pennsylvania contest predicted a 5-point loss for Obama.

        Wilder predicted a tight race for Obama against the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, Arizona Senator John McCain, if Obama does win the nomination. He said he had advised the candidate on how to handle the race issue.

        `High Ground'

        ``I've told him to keep the high ground,'' he said. ``Let the rest of us do what needed to be done'' in responding to attacks.

        ``I told him it's going to be very difficult, particularly running against a woman,'' he said. ``And racially it's going to be even more difficult.''

        When Wilder ran for president for three months in 1992, internal polling in New Hampshire, the nation's first primary state, showed him at the top of the preference list based on his positions, his biography and his speeches, he said.

        ``As soon as my picture was put up associated with that, it would go down,'' he said.

        This year, Obama was projected to win the Jan. 8 New Hampshire contest after beating Clinton in the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3. Polls had showed him ahead by 13 points. Yet Clinton beat him by 3 points in the Granite State.

        ``He should never have believed those New Hampshire polls, and I think now he recognizes that,'' Wilder said.

        by Freedoms Road on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:55:30 AM PDT

  •  if the polls you are quoting

    can be believed that is;

    by pollwatch on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 03:36:12 AM PDT

  •  temporary blip

    Ain't no way in hell that independents will favor HRC over Obama. One poll does not prove anything. The trend all this year has been the opposite. Hillary wants to nuke Iran, something I highly doubt independents want.

    Your "key finding" is bunk.

    by CocoaLove on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 03:38:29 AM PDT

  •  Where have you been the past 6 weeks when all the

    GE matchup polls showed Obama doing better against McCain than Hillary?  Hiding in a hole, of course.  But, ONE poll comes out that supports your predetermined view and it is time to declare timestop and annoit Saint Hillary!  Sheesh!  Are you this desperate?

    As anyone with a memory could tell you, GE polls this early out tell you nothing about what will be the result in November.   John Kerry led Bush four years ago in April.  And in June 1992, Bill Clinton was in third place, double-digits behind both George HW Bush  and Ross Perot.

    Polls are a snapshot, a single frame in a moving picture and chosing one to sell your point is either naive or willfully ignorant.

    by Its the Supreme Court Stupid on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:44:16 AM PDT

•  I suggest that

  you check out electoral-vote every day to get the  daily count of superdelegate votes.

  by maddercow on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:47:59 AM PDT

•  recommended

  for your excellent analysis of the garden gnome sex tape scandal. finally a voice of reason!

  by owlies on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 12:59:44 AM PDT

•  We just picked up another super.

  Paul Kirk for Obama.

  demconwatch.blogspot.com

  by BradF on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:02:08 AM PDT

  •  Had suspected he was leaning Obama

    but apparently there was no credible source until recently.  Good for Obama.  Gap is temporarily down to 20 on DCW, will be back up to 21 when they add Easley, but I'd be surprised if the gap isn't under 20 by the end of the week.

    by Skaje on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:07:43 AM PDT

    •  I want a biggy

      Gore would be swell. I would like all of Bill's former cabinet to endorse Barack. That might help.

      by woodstock007 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:10:38 AM PDT

      •  Watch for Rep. Robert Brady (PA-01)

        he already indicated he will endorse Obama, just hasn't formally done so yet.

        by Skaje on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:12:46 AM PDT

  •  what do you think the media narrative will be

    when obama surpasses hillary in superdelegates? he's only like 20 away now. could he get 20 before june 3rd? and is it possible for the remaining supers to split right down the middle?

    by owlies on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:40:25 AM PDT

    •  Think

      DRIP

      DRIP

      DRIP

      by woodstock007 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:42:23 AM PDT

•  I almost picked "JeffLieber ...

  has a better sense of humor and writing style" but had to vote yes because the diary is spot on.  Let's move on, do what we can to increase the plurality, and get ready for November.

  And you have a good sense of humor and should be encouraged:)

  Thanks...

  by Abie on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:40:03 AM PDT

  •  thanks nt

    by woodstock007 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:40:59 AM PDT

•  excuse if a repeat to the thread - great diary

  thanks for posting it;

   
  http://blog.washingtonpost.com/...

  the crowd roared

  EXCERPT

  Focusing on the crucial days before the May 6 primaries in North Carolina and Indiana, Obama seemed determined to wrench his campaign back to the basic messages that propelled him to a strong lead in pledged delegates. He spoke of moving away from "distortions and distractions."

  And he got a standing ovation after telling the crowd that he was determined to move beyond a rough stretch of the campaign that he described as overly negative, not to mention injurious to the health of his candidacy.

  "Having politicians bickering back and forth doesn't help you," Obama said. "Having them worrying about superdelegates doesn't help you. This election is not about me. It's not about Senator Clinton. It's not about John McCain. It's about you. It's about your struggles, your hopes and dreams."

  Obama said that his campaign in recent weeks got "sucked into this whole negative thing. People throw elbows at you. You start feeling like, 'Oh, I got to throw an elbow back,'" Obama said. "I told this to my team, that we are starting to sound like other folks. We're starting to run the same negative stuff and it shows that none of us are immune from this kind of politics."

  He added, "For the next nine days, between now and May 6, and the next nine months between now and November, and the next nine years" -- and here he was interrupted by cheers -- "I am going to spend all my time talking about you."

  by pollwatch on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 03:26:42 AM PDT

•  Dem college superdelegates want to know

  who they should vote for - they have you tube video asking people to vote to help them decide;

  here is their email: you know what to do!

  [e-mail]

  by pollwatch on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 03:40:36 AM PDT