Indiana will decide this..

As a strong Obama supporter leaning Democrat (I've given money and volunteered my time for Obama) I have come to the realizaton that he could actually lose the nomination by losing Indiana.  Hillary got too good of a bounce out of PA and now with the tour of Rev Wright, Obama is totally on defense.  He needs a win in Indiana to change the narrative and put him on offense.

I had hoped the country was ready for an Obama presidency, but instead I think he outfoxed Hillary earlier by running strong in the Caucus states.  If she had run a 50 state strategy she would already be the "inevitable" nominee.  The "unpatriotic, elite" theme seems to be sticking to Obama.  I had hoped he had some teflon like Reagan and Bill Clinton had, but that appears not to be true.

That "can't close the deal" meme is hard to counteract.  But winning in Indiana will make him the comeback kid who beat her despite Rev. Wright and will show the country that Obama can defeat Hillary after all.

I also used to think Hillary has too many negatives, but I think she's won over a lot of people with her fighting never give up spirit.  She has a lot of women rooting for her and they are the majority.  Hillary hasn't stumbled since the Bosnia story.  And her attacks on Obama have been effective.

In my last diary, almost 2 months ago, I thought Obama would win and should put Hillary on the ticket.

Well, I've changed my mind.  I think the superdelegates will give it to Hillary if she wins Indiana and she will offer the VP slot to Obama.  Whether he will accept it or not is another matter, but she should agree to offer it to him in exchange for the nomination.

I guess this diary is going to tick off a lot of other Obama supporters here, but am I the only one who thinks that whoever wins the Indiana primary will be the nominee?

•  Tips?

  Or will I be troll rated?  :)

  by dlender on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:08:14 AM PDT

•  No tips and no HR just added to the list

  of lemming diarist ready to handwring themselves into defeat in November.

  by Hope08 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:15:40 AM PDT

•  yeap you are"Wright"

  Wright is the gift that keeps on screwing! The polls are not in favor of Obama in Indiana that I have seen. Is that true, I sure hope not!

  by peacefully on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:16:27 AM PDT

  •  The IN polls haven't changed much

    Survey USA had Clinton up 52-43 in late March and up 52-43 a couple of days ago.  Demographically, the state favors Clinton, though not as much as PA did.  Obama has a chance in IN, but it is far from a gimme, and it always has been.  Wright likely will not have much influence, just as he didn't have much influence first time around.

    by Sedi on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:37:31 AM PDT

•  She may not win it but may get it

  HRC will not "win" the nomination by winning Indiana.  The only way to win it is having the most elected delegates.  That's where you appear to be missing the point.  But I do agree that the SD's may "give" it to her based on the results of the last primaries.  IMO, HRC and her campaign have convinced much of the MSM that is the case.
  I do agree, however that IF HRC is given the nomination, the VP slot will be offered to Obama.  She risks splitting the party and losing a lot of Obama voters otherwise.  Whether he takes it or not is anyone's guess.

  by Tx LIberal on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:17:35 AM PDT

  •  No, no no, the SDs will NOT give it to Clinton

    As I noted yesterday, undecided SDs have little to gain by nominating Clinton.  It would risk possibly doing irrevocable damage by alienating black voters and the new and independent voters that Obama has attracted.  For elected SDs, Clinton at the top of the ticket is not an attractive prospect, since it would galvanize Republicans and hurt every down-ticket candidate.  A number of SDs are on record as saying that they will support the pledged delegate leader (virtually certain to be Obama) and others appear to privately hold that position.  A complete Obama meltdown is Clinton's only path to the nomination at this stage.

    by Sedi on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:43:03 AM PDT

    •  Notice that "win" is in quotes?

      It depends on how you define "winning".  To me winning the support of most democrats is obtaining the most elected delegates, either through the primary or caucus process.
      Superdelegates by their votes will select a winner by providing one candidate or the margin to go above 2025 and yes that candidate will be declared the "winner".  But it's more like a "tie breaker" because they are not required to base their vote on that of individuals who participated in the primaries, caucuses or anything else for that matter.

      by Tx LIberal on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 08:21:57 AM PDT

      •  Fair enough, but...

        I still maintain that the SDs will not hand the nomination to Clinton unless Obama self-destructs.  While the traditional media might sort-of buy into Clinton's argument (and I'm not even convinced of that), there is no way that Democratic party leaders will.  SDs are required to vote for the pledged delegate leader, but in reality they would need a strong reason not to do so.  Obama generally performs better versus McCain than Clinton does, despite being under constant attack by McCain, Republicans, Clinton and her surrogates, and the media for more than a month.  Obama clearly has longer coattails, especially in red states.

        Giving the nomination to someone who trails by more than 100 in the pledged delegate count would just be too self-destructive, even by Democratic standards.  The only thing that IN will determine is when Obama wins the nomination.

        by Sedi on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 08:30:50 AM PDT

  •  re: The only way to win it

    is having the most elected delegates.

    That's incorrect. The only way for either candidate to win it, is to obtain the required 2025 delegates which neither candidate will manage to do.

    This race will ulimatey be decided by the Supers who are free to vote for whichever candidate they feel is the stronger against McCain when the time comes.

    by phoenixdreamz on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:51:09 AM PDT

  •  Follow the money!

    That is what the SDs will do.  And that money is with Obama.  IF HRC was beating him in fundraising they might consider it.  But even more important to them than alienating and disenfranchising all those who voted for Obama is the MONEY.  Cynical, you bet!  Do you really think they will risk throwing away the fundraising machine his campaign has devised?  Absolutely not.  This is politics afterall!

    by FoxfireTX on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 08:44:21 AM PDT

•  You feel exactly how the MSM

  wants you to feel.  It shows that Fox, ABC, CNN, etc. are succeeding in convincing you what they want you to believe.

  What has changed?  Is Obama different than he was in February?  Are his ideas for improving the country suddenly different?  

  No, they're not, he is still an inspiring leader with great ideas.  Is it tough to fight Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, John McCain, and all of the MSM at the same time?  Absolutely.

  Don't forget, he is winning.  He closed the gap in PA from 25 to 9.  Yes, the MSM is giving lots of love to Hillary right now, but the supers continue to drip for Obama.

  It is good that Obama doesn't panic the way we his supporters do.  You can let the media convince you the sky is falling, or you can say, "Not this time."

  Keep your chin up.  What you are seeing now is a transition into the GE strategy, which is a sign that Obama has enough supers' support lined up to start making this change.  Indiana will be close, but even if he loses he will still be the nominee.

  Let there be peace in your soul.

  by Utah Dem on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:18:55 AM PDT

  •  My thoughts exactly

    Clinton's only bounce was a media-generated frenzy to further the media's desperate desire to milk this  contest for all it's worth, and damage the Democratic candidate in the process.

    dlender's arguments are Clinton arguments. It's about states, and momentum. It is a strategy that begs us to please NOT pay attention to those pesky delegates. The only metric now is who is most electable, based on recent states won, momentum and polls measuring electability. What a bunch of nonsense.

    Today we have a taste of the alignment of the media against Obama. AP repeats the RNC lie that it is a fact that the new DNC ad is wrong. But all the ad does is show McCain's own words. At the very same time, Wright's words have become Obama's Waterloo.

    So according to the traditional media, one candidate own words CANNOT fairly by tied to him, and with another candidate, it's only fair that other people's words MUST be tied to him.

    Sigh, I can't wait until about June 4th, when the supers come out in force and shut this thing down.

    by PatrickBradish on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:43:02 AM PDT

•  If Clinton can not win

  the pledged delegate count which it the metric for the nomination is will be disatrous to give it to her.

  Many will sit home, especially the AA community which the Democrats need to win PA, MO, OH, MI, etc.

  If they sit home, forget Clinton winning.  And if they give it to Clinton and Obama offer Obama the VP, he will walk away.

  Furthermore, he will walk away with a 200M goldmine, that is his donor base which Democrats need desperately.

  If the Democratic Party want to implode, put Clinton on the ticket as the President, it will be looked upon as stealing the nomination.

  There is no way around that.  And all the nice press she is getting now will turn on her and that will be the narrative up until November.

  And expect some lost congress seats.

  by icebergslim on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:21:17 AM PDT

•  Do your math

  This is complete Clinton spin and media hype.  In the end, it all comes down to delegate math.  

  Go to slate or CNN or any of the good delegate calculators.  Even with Obama will finish out the primary season with a 100+ lead in pledged delegates.  That will mean Hillary needs to convince 2/3 of the remaining superdelegates to get to the magic 2025.  No doubt there are several who would be persuaded by strong Hillary performances and the yammering about blue collar votes, MI, FL and all the other nonsense that team Hillary spews, but will 2/3 buy into it?  Not impossible, but sure seems doubtful, given the impact on African American voters and young voters that Obama has ignited.  

  by Tribe Fan on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:25:37 AM PDT

•  Weak kneed support kills great candidates

  Sorry but you do not convince. You are a bystander who goes with the flow. Or a Hillary "supporter" fishing for converts. Why would you pencil thru "strong" Obama "Supporter"??? ......whatever its either weak kneed support or something trollish. Anyways the only way Hillary can even start to be considerd a leader in this is by a 30-40 point landslide in Indiana. All your talking points are those of Hillary supporters.

  by JCNYMYAMI on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:27:59 AM PDT

  •  I penciled though "strong"

    Because the Jeremiah Wright thing rattled me when it first happened, it caused me to have doubts about who Obama is and why he would attend such a church for 20 years.  What I came up with is that he did so because it would help him get elected from South Chicago and that made him just another politician, not the "new politican" he had sold himself as.  I really want to believe in Obama, but I've had a hard time lately.  You can call me weak kneed or someone who goes with the flow, but sorry, my impression of Obama is not the same as it was when all this started.  Obama and Clinton's policy differences are negligible, which is why the primary campaign has been about personailty and so many other issues.  You can blame the MSM but I dont.  I think they are reporting on the electabilty factor which is what the fight between Clinton and Obama is about and while she fights dirty I have begun to respect her fighting spirit.  Too few democrats have that.  I really dont myself, so I admire it in her.  

    by dlender on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:52:29 AM PDT

•  Indiana will only be decisive for Obama...

  if Hillary wins it, it will drag onto June 3rd.  At this point, supers are looking for cover to come out for him.  That's the conventional wisdom.  No one expects the supers to deny him the nomination because of Indiana.

  by foxsucks81 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:28:46 AM PDT

•  The poll does not reflect any answer I would give

  And, you are right, I do not agree with your analysis.

  by sweetliberty on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:30:18 AM PDT

•  You don't know Indiana

  Have you seen the stream of Republicans elected in this state?

  Have you ever seen a bigger asshat than Republican Dan Burton from Indiana's 5th District?  Burton isn't just a jackass, he's stupid.  But they keep on electing him.  Do a Google search on Dan Burton and you'll get the whole story on him.  He's a Family values man.

  And Sen. Bayh sounds more conservative by the minute as a Democrat.  Will he vote against funding the Iraq War?  I don't think so.

  You can't imagine how happy the So. Indiana farmers are with their petrochemical fertilizers and high corn prices.  Why would they want to vote for a candidate who may reform agriculture?  McCain is their man even if they're Democrats.

  by Literacy on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:31:24 AM PDT

•  I think you are wrong on particulars

  What Hillary has done is legitimated the vast right wing smear machine. At the same time she has adopted the Neo-Con agenda for foreign policy.

  Her 'fighting spirit" has been about trying to destroy a fellow candidate, tear him down,use wedge issues, say big FU to a strong part of the party (you know, those latte sippin', birkenstock wearin', Prius drivin' elitists like me who make just a little bit more than the national median income-unlike those teetotalin', plain old coffee drinking, scions of Reagan Democrats like Chris Matthews).

  You should support Hillary if you are a conservative democrat or conservative independent.

  by Citizen Rat on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:31:30 AM PDT

•  Did someone just give Indiana ...

  ... 795 delegates to the Democratic Convention?  

  No. Well, then, chill out. Obama won this in March.

  by Tortmaster on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:31:36 AM PDT

•  Finally, a small, red state that matters!!

  It's amazing that Obama can win so many small, red states and get pooh poohed, but if he can't win Indiana, why, his goose is cooked.  

  Whereas HRC's goose is never cooked, because it turns out that Second is the New First.

  by Inland on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:34:07 AM PDT

•  The author of this diary is 100% correct

  It's a tough pill to swallow in a way, but then again he has just as good a chance to pull out a win in Indiana as Hillary does. He does have to roll up the sleeves and get it done. Presidencies aren't given (well, usually) they're won.

  by hyerstandard on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:35:35 AM PDT

•  "Strong Obama supporter"

  My ass!

  by TLS66 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:37:11 AM PDT

•  Is it a lack of faith or spleen that's

  causing all this panic?

  by SteamPunkX on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:37:29 AM PDT

•  Keep putting one foot in front of the other

  Politics is not for the faint of heart. Since LBJ in 1964, no President except Reagan has experienced a cakewalk to get elected. I guess we just needed a charming old dolt for those eight years. Who knows?

  Obama is almost there, despite having Hillary, McCain and all the MSM piling on him. He's young, so the "establishment" is desparately trying to to throw everything at him to see if anything will stick. So far, they've failed miserably. Whatever the Republicans try, there is more than enough ammo to volley back this election.

  He'll come out in relatively good shape next Tuesday. After that, he has Oregon and Montana for insurance and will likely close the gap on Hillary in the other contests.

  YES WE CAN!!

  by OHeyeO on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:39:02 AM PDT

•  STOP FREAKING OUT

  Despite what the MSN tells you, the conservatives and closet bigots are the only people throwing a fit over this.  Clinton's negatives are over 50 percent.  SHE'S DONE.  The supers have to let her campaign die of it's own free will.  This will end on May 20th.  He locks up a majority of the pledged delegates after that. The supers will not overturn the pledged delegate count.  If they do, they can kiss thier future goodbye.  Obama can almost literally PRINT money.  And the supers want some of that cash.

  by bender is great on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:40:38 AM PDT

•  Indiana will decide when this ends...

  Not who wins it.  That's already in the bag.

  by Fro on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:42:42 AM PDT

•  This Is Wrong For Many Reasons

  Indiana will decide for Indiana, just like all the other states decided for themselves. Obama has won this nomination. In politics, "I'm a fighter" is  another way of saying "I'm losing."

  Obama has raised the most money, won the most votes, won the most delegates. Even if Hillary runs the table by 10 percent in all the remaining states (she won't), she still won't be close to getting the nomination. She's a self-confessed liar, and the Republicans are gleefully biting their tongues about this, hoping against hope that the Dems will be stupid enough split their party in two by nominating her.

  by LongTom on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:43:46 AM PDT

•  Hardball

  Hillary has threatened the Supers with her big money delegates and the spector of Obama failing to win her supporters. She has tried to make the case that Obama is unelectable by doing her best to make it so.

  But if it comes down to a back room knife fight over the supers don't expect Obama to roll over. Without the African American vote Hillary could not even win NY state much less the swing states. Obama is perfectly capable of some behind the scenes Chicago style politics himself.

  Once the MSM and the Republican slime machine shift their sights to destroying Hillary her already sky high negatives would explode. All the slime that has been ignored in favor of the 24/7 Wright fest will be rolled out like a round the clock media concocted bad  Clinton Soap Opera. The independents and Reagen Democrats will move to the War Hero and Hillary's only hope of eeking out a victory would be massive turnout and overwhelming support from African Americans. If they stay home in large numbers not only does she go down but the down ticket candidates get destroyed as well. That is a scenario no super delegate will care to contemplate.

  If Obama finishes the primary ahead no matter what happens from here on out, he has plenty of leverage of his own to use to get the 30% or so of super delegates he will need to claim the nomination he has earned. Hillary has been playing a game of brinksmanship daring the party to test her will but Obama may hold the final and most powerful card in that game and may wind up doing a little behind the scenes threatening of his own.

  by hankg on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:51:28 AM PDT

•  she's going to win Indiana

  that appears close to certain, particularly after Wright.

  The real question is NC. If she gets it closer in NC than he got in PA, then I'm really concerned.

  If not, then we are right back where we've always been.

  I've said for three months I thought she was going to steal this thing, still think that, but if he wins NC by a comfortable margin and keeps IN close, then he probably wins it.

  by qazplm on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:52:45 AM PDT

  •  "He 'probably' wins it."

    I'm glad to see that you give Obama at least a 51% chance of winning an election in which he has a nearly impossible to surmount delegate lead, a popular vote lead and a campaign donations lead.

    When you say that, "If she gets it closer in NC then he got it in PA, then I'm really concerned," then I am concerned that you are a concern troll.

    HRC needs to win Indiana by 30% and NC by 30%. Anything less and she cannot even come close to staying on track for a popular vote and pledged delegate lead.

    Obama won this thing in March.

    by Tortmaster on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:07:22 AM PDT

    •  he does not have an "insurmountable" lead

      he has a lead.

      popular vote means nothing.
      pledged delegates dont mean everything.

      SDs mean everything because they are the only ones who can/will decide this.

      SDs will do what they do and neither you nor me can predict that with any accuracy.

      Not with Wright and not if the upcoming votes show a weakening of Obama.

      You can get all pi$$y and name call if you want to, but the reality is that this thing is not over and I guarantee you Obama doesnt think it is.

      by qazplm on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:49:58 AM PDT

•  not ticked off at you

  but am in complete disagreement with you.  Indiana wont make much "delegate" difference and will only really matter if Obama wins.  see the Wall Street Journal story today.

  It is still the math, baby.

  by ratador on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:09:45 AM PDT

•  That "can't close the deal" meme is the stupidest

  meme ever to be memed. Anyone with two functioning lobes knows that pledged delegates cannot make a difference now. Which explains why the meme has taken hold so well...

  by iconoclastic cat on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:12:32 AM PDT

•  Obama will be the nominee

  When did Hillary's spin infect everyone's brain?

  Indiana is one state among 50. Obama will have more pledged delegates, states won, and most likely popular vote, although that's another Hillary measure.

  Time for people to step up and fight for Obama, instead of caving, like a bunch of spineless wonders.

  by ifkeditor on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:17:26 AM PDT

•  new rasmussen poll on N.C coming out

  He says he has a poll coming out at 11:00. Reading between the lines I think it isn`t going to be great news for Obama. He is saying he needs to win big in N.C. TO run up the popular vote.
  It appears that he is buying the clinton spin that she is close.

  by JOEL1954 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:17:53 AM PDT

•  Utterly ridiculous

  Giving "decider" status to Indiana would be the dumbest criteria I've ever heard for deciding a Democratic nominee.

  • Indiana is NOT a swing state any Democrat is expected to win in November.
  • Indiana has not voted for a Democrat since LBJ in 1964.
  • Indiana voted for BOB DOLE.

  by Trepanator on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:21:55 AM PDT

•  Obama can finish Hillary off with a win in

  Indiana, but not vice versa.  This state is another must win for Hillary, especially if she loses N.C., which appears very likely.  Now if Hillary takes both N.C. and Indiana, then I will be concerned, but how can a loss in a state on the same day that he wins an even larger state result in Obama losing the nomination.  It makes no sense.

  by bhouston79 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:24:31 AM PDT