Yet another prediction diary, but with a homemade map of Indiana at the end. (By the way, my prediction map of Pennsylvania was hugely accurate - I missed only one county: Montgomery, which was essentially a tie.)
The upcoming Indiana primary promises to be one of the closest ones we've had in a while. In the end, the margin of victory in the delegate count and the popular vote should be very small.
There are two main demographic differences between Indiana and Pennsylvania that could affect the outcome of the primary. First, Indiana is much younger than Pennsylvania with a median age of 36.3 (one tenth of a percent below the national average of 36.4). And only 12.4% of the population in Indiana is over the age of 65. In Pennsylvania, that percentage is 15.1. Secondly, Indiana has a much higher percentage of Protestants. Wikipedia lists Pennsylvania as 53% Catholic while it lists Indiana as only 20% Catholic.
Indiana has 9 Congressional districts, with a total of 47 Democratic delegates awarded proportionally. There are 16 at-large delegates, and 9 pleo delegates.
IN-01, with 6 delegates, is essentially part of the Chicago metro area. It is very ethnically diverse - 35% of residents are of an ethnic minority. Because of its proximity to Chicago, I'm going to cautiously predict that Obama exceeds the 58.4% threshold he needs to get the 4-2 split in delegates here.
Running tally: Obama +2
IN-02, having 6 delegates, is just east of the Chicago area and should be more or less a toss-up. With 6 delegates, neither candidate will break the 58.4% barrier to get the 4-2 split, which means each candidate will pick up 3 delegates.
Running tally: Obama +2
IN-03, with 4 delegates, is Northeastern Indiana, which includes most of Allen County (Fort Wayne). It would be a huge shock if either candidate exceeded the 62.5% threshold to attain a 3-1 split in delegates here. Normally, one would think this district clearly favors Clinton, but there is a strong Amish/Mennonite influence in the area which favors Obama somewhat (as it did in Lancaster County, PA). Still, I feel that both candidates will receive 2 delegates here.
Running tally: Obama +2
IN-04, with 4 delegates, encompasses a large area of surburban Indianapolis and stretches northwest and southwest of there. Though the voters here are somewhat highly educated, neither candidate has much of an advantage, certainly not enough to pull off 62.5% of the vote. Both candidates will get 2 delegates.
Running tally: Obama +2
IN-05, having 4 delegates, includes the eastern and northern sides of the Indianapolis suburbs and stretches far north of there to include the towns or Marion and Huntington. Relatively speaking, this should be Obama territory - Obama tends to perform well in districts where 87% of the population or more has graduated from high school. Here, that figure is over 90%. Also, the median income is $58,165 which is the highest of any district in Indiana. Nevertheless, the district should still end up tied at 2 delegates apiece.
Running tally: Obama +2
IN-06 is the only district in Indiana with an odd number of delegates with 5. This stretch of Indiana borders a section of Ohio where Clinton won by about 20 points. Clinton should win the delegate count here 3 to 2.
Running tally: Obama +1
IN-07 encompasses most of Indianapolis proper. This should be strongly Obama territory as it is 32% African American. Obama should easily cross the 58.4% mark to get the 4-2 split in delegates here.
Running tally: Obama +3
IN-08, with six delegates, should be relatively strong territory for Clinton. Including the cities of Terre Haute and Evansville, it covers a wide swath of southwestern counties which border Kentucky and the portions of Illinois where Clinton did well. Attaining the 4-2 split shouldn't be too much of a challenge for her.
Running tally: Obama +1
IN-09, with six delegates, includes the vast majority of sourthern Indiana counties. This is going to go very strong for Clinton, although it does include Bloomington which should vote overwhelmingly for Obama. Will Obama's strength in Bloomington be enough to keep Clinton's victory below 58.4% in this district? I strongly doubt it. Most of these counties voted for Mr. Clinton in 1992 and especially 1996. I think Clinton will take the district as a whole 62 - 38 for a 4-2 split.
Running tally: Clinton +1
My prediction, then, is that the tally of delegates awarded proportionally within the Congressional Districts will be Obama 23, Clinton 24. I also think that Clinton will carry the popular vote narrowly, which should result in a 13/12 split of the remaining delegates.
That leaves the tally at Obama 35, Clinton 37 for a net of just two delegates for Clinton.
As opposed to the Pennsylvania primary, the districts in Indiana will be far more static with much fewer surprises. The counties will be much more predictable: The northwestern and central counties will go to Obama; most of the other counties will go to Clinton.
Here is a map of Indiana which shows which way I think the counties will go:
Dark Blue - Obama strong
Blue - Obama
White - tie/tossup
Red - Clinton
Dark Red - Clinton strong
Keep in mind that my predictions in Pennsylvania were largely accurate with regard to the individual counties - I correctly predicted that Obama would carry Centre, Union, Lancaster, Delaware, Dauphin, Chester, and Philadelphia counties. I was just barely wrong on Montgomery County, but the provisionals there haven't been counted yet, so you never know...
I actually think most of the counties in white will go to Clinton, but not very strongly. If Obama gets big margins of victory in the Indianapolis area and the northwestern counties and manages to win Allen County (as I have predicted here), he could win the popular vote, but I think the delegate count will still go to Clinton.
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