Rasmussen Obama 48 Clinton 42

Daily tracking poll for Friday

Obama    48 (46)
Clinton  42 (43)

Against McCain

McCain 47
Obama  44

McCain  47
Clinton 42

Favorability among Demcratic voters

Obama    29  Unfavorable 29
Clinton  19  Unfavorable 34

Most Americans see both Clinton and Obama as Liberal They see McCain as moderate 41%  We're going have to change that moderate perception

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...

Also for your reading pleasure A favorable Obama article by Shapiro

The Obama difference

Unlike most presidential Dems in recent memory, the Illinois senator is at ease with himself -- even while bowling gutter balls in Pennsylvania.

By Walter Shapiro

It seems unlikely that Barack Obama will ever quite pull off this kind of son-of-a-millworker populism. His Kansas-Kenya heritage and his odyssey from Hawaii to Indonesia to Harvard Law School to the streets of Chicago is simply too unusual. But several times during the bus tour Obama reacted to a wrenching tale of economic woe with the simple words, "I hear you." This was not Bill Clinton biting his lip as he shared your pain, but at these moments Obama did convey a sense that he understood -- and that he connected with what he had just heard.

Despite the 15 months on the campaign trail, Obama -- like any presidential candidate before he or she stands bathed in confetti at his or her party's convention -- is still a work in progress. Some of the strands of his Pennsylvania campaign will soon be abandoned and forgotten. (But not the bowling.) Others may produce themes that will be repeated in TV commercials all through the fall campaign, if Obama is indeed the Democratic nominee. That is what the campaign trail is -- a constant process of trial and error. But Obama, who had just won his Senate primary in Illinois at this time four years ago, remains the candidate who has displayed the fastest learning curve in recent political memory.

Read the complete article at Salon

http://www.salon.com/...

•  Daily poll

  tips please

  by Kitty on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 07:58:42 AM PDT

  •  I think...

    This may be the Hardball appearance working.  He did outstanding in that format.

    by RichM on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 08:13:44 AM PDT

    •  A little doubtful

      For two reasons:

      1. Most viewers of Hardball are probably political junkies, who already have their minds made up.

      2. The universe of Hardball viewers is relatively small.  It's what, maybe 1/2 million total?

      I agree that Obama was great on the College Tour thing and it was certainly a net plus for him.  I just wonder how much overall impact his appearance might have on national polls.  As usual, I could be wrong! :)

      by winsock on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 08:26:26 AM PDT

      •  Another theory...

        This is just part of the pattern.  He has better polls going into the w/e because he doesn't poll well over the w/e.  Which means that the previous w/e polls 'roll off' and his numbers go up.  It seems pretty standard in Rasmussen.

        by RichM on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 08:52:44 AM PDT

      •  Not the Hardball

        appearance itself but the reaction to it in PA.  The talk shows, newspapers and media outfits all reported on it

        by Kitty on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 09:01:15 AM PDT

        •  not to worry: he's in.

          Let the polls poll away, and the pundits punt (The NY Times today: "Has Obama Peaked?").

          The surge in new voter registration, his charisma and ability to impress even in a crisis as with his race speech, the flocking of supers to him, the commited dels, the popular vote, the states won---- the idea that the race might go to Sniper Girl or Hundred Year Geezer over all these facts and perceptions is mostly a product of our anxiety that he's almost too good to be true, and that historically, they shoot heroes.

          I pray for him and for the possibilities before us, of course, but never will doubt this country's need for him or my belief that he's meant to be president.

          Irrational-sounding to some, I'm sure, but that belief is borne of a conviction that millions believe as I do.  

          by bob zimway on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 10:01:31 AM PDT

  •  Fastest Learning Curve

    Precisely.

    By definition, anyone who is not an incumbent president is doing the job for the first time.  

    A steep learning curve is one of the most crucial capabilities anyone can bring to the office.

    Forget experience if you aren't learning from it.

    by pvlb on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 08:35:33 AM PDT

•  nice uptick!

  by slinkerwink on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 08:01:34 AM PDT

•  On Monday, I predicted Obama

  would be in a statistical tie with Hillary in Pa, by Friday, and I am happy to report I am right.

  http://www.internetnewsagency.com/...

  by kanuk on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 08:10:35 AM PDT

  •  Morning Call Pa poll - Clinton 49 Obama 38

    Poll: Hillary's Lead In Pennsylvania Drops To 11%
    By Greg Sargent - April 4, 2008, 10:50AM

    New numbers from the Morning Call find Hillary leading Obama in Pennsylvania by 11 points, 49%-38%.

    That lead is down three points from mid-February. Since then, Obama barnstormed the state by bus and unleashed a Pennsylvania ad blitz, which the Call estimates is costing the Obama campaign $325,000 per day, as compared to Hillary's $120,000 per day.

    TPM

    by Kitty on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 08:14:38 AM PDT

    •  Link for Morning Call Poll

      http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpoi...

      by Kitty on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 08:15:49 AM PDT

•  Hillary hasn't broken 47% since March 7.

  Seems that's her ceiling in this poll.

  by jeepdad on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 08:12:37 AM PDT

  •  She has never broken 40 either

    in either Gallup or Rasmussen which frustrates me.
    Our guy definetly is on top but her support does not seem to be dwindling that much

    by doriangz on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 08:15:20 AM PDT

    •  Older women and low info

      voters won't be budged--she has a definite floor and a definite ceiling.  Her ceiling is below 50%.  That's why we can't nominate her.

      by Kab ibn al Ashraf on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 08:17:24 AM PDT

    •  Honestly, it won't move much

      Not until she finally drops out.

      by DrJK on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 08:17:30 AM PDT

      •  Exactly--the statistics are in.

        IMO the only reason things are creeping his way is that it is slowly dawning on some people that she is not going to win.

        by oscarsmom on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 08:42:20 AM PDT

•  A little more

  Among men, McCain leads Clinton by twenty-one and Obama by eleven. Among women, Clinton leads McCain by eight and Obama leads by three. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

  Among voters nationwide, McCain is now viewed favorably by 56% and unfavorably by 41%. Obama’s reviews are 52% favorable and 46% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 45% favorable, 52% unfavorable.

  What is wrong with American men?

  JFChrist/

  by Kab ibn al Ashraf on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 08:14:32 AM PDT

  •  I think it's the women vote that will change

    Many will change when they contrast Obama with McCain and Clinton is no longer part of the mix.

    by DrJK on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 08:18:43 AM PDT

  •  McCain's coasting on his fame

    The actual race between nominees will IMO deflate his image. Obama will make him look like a WalMart greeter.

    by bob zimway on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 10:14:40 AM PDT

•  I inhale tracking polls like sweet, sweet

  crack.

  Yes, they're not good for me. Still.

  Those favorable numbers you listed are the folks who pegged a candidate with "very favorable" or "very unfavorable." It evinces that there are strong feelings out there about the Dems, which is understandable. McCain's drawing more of a "meh" reaction right now, also understandable.

  But Obama's overall favorable vs. unfavorable is 52-46, his best post-Wright number and in line with what he was drawing in late February. That's good. (Though the ration for McCain and Clinton have crept up a little late this week as well).

  Good piece on tracker fluctuations here.

  by insects8mybrain on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 08:15:10 AM PDT

  •  Tip for the Conan O'Brian reference. nt

    by iconoclastic cat on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 08:17:46 AM PDT

•  People are idiots regarding McCain.

  by ablington on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 08:16:16 AM PDT

  •  I prefer

    to say that they are uninformed

    by Kitty on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 08:17:12 AM PDT

    •  You are nicer than I am.

      by ablington on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 08:49:02 AM PDT

      •  I doubt that

        just trying to emulate Obama.  

        by Kitty on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 09:02:59 AM PDT

•  Clintons unfavorables are pretty significant

  Obama and McCain have pretty similar favorable-unfavorable ratings but Obama (52-46) and Clinton (45-52) are virtually flipped.  To me this is one of the most significant electability arguments.

  by ecostar on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 08:19:43 AM PDT

  •  She's always had high negatives though

    Her supporters say this is because she is victimized for being a woman, and it is a rallying point for her base of voters that she has high negatives.  It is a true issue for the general, no question, but in the primary it helps her by generating votes from her base.

    by novaseeker on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 08:26:42 AM PDT

•  Clinton demands and gets kid glove treatment

  Sickening

  by realwischeese on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 08:24:10 AM PDT

•  I've been watching the STRONGLY

  Favorable numbers, particularly for Obama as he takes a hit here and there during the course of this campaign. He clearly has (according to the history of the poll noted) the strongest support such that when adversity strikes hordes of supporters rush to man the battlements.

  Those STRONGLY favorable numbers are also reflected in the comparable fundraising prowess of the candidates.

  by PointGuard on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 08:34:49 AM PDT

•  Seriously, if you care for calm discussion - -

  Shouldn't Obama, as the nominee-apparent, be doing at least 60% or better among democrats?  A majority of democrats still won't commit to him - - shows to me that both are still not closing the deal with their own supposed base.

  by Barry in MIA on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 08:39:30 AM PDT

  •  Name the last candidate

    with those numbers.

    Thanks!

    by mellowinman on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 08:45:45 AM PDT

  •  Barry

    I think that once the nomination is settled either one of the candidates will have a majority of Dems committed to them.

    by Kitty on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 08:45:50 AM PDT

•  I have to laugh

  That people actually take any stock in GE polls at this point. McCain's numbers shot up after he finally tied up the GOP nomination - against a very, very weak field. Obama will be knock off the supposed Top Dog, the person who was going be the next president, "the Champ".
  When Obama finally beats "the Champ", polls will have a different look.

  by Delevie on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 09:06:41 AM PDT