General Election will come down to 2 or 3 swing states
Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 06:11:35 PM PDT
I feel there is a misconception around here that Obama will sweep the entire nation and the "swing" states (OH, PA, and this year VA) won't matter. The reality is they will make or break him.
I am a believer in Howard Dean's 50-State strategy to put Democrats in every office at every level, from local to national. If we want the country to become progressive, we need Democrats in our state legislatures just as much as we need them in Congress. Barack Obama's coattails will help with this in November because he will turn previously red states into blue. As much as this helps downticket races however, the Presidential election will still come down to the same few swing states that it has come down to in the past.
Based on current polls, this is what the general election map looks like for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton against John McCain. (taken from poblano's awesome site)
My first assumption is that the "light blue" states of NV, CO, NM, MI, and NJ will vote blue this year. The Interior West states have been itching to flip blue this year. Obama has not campaigned in Michigan yet he is still leading in that traditionally blue state. NJ always teeters on the edge but they're solidly Democrat.
If all those states vote for Obama, this is what our map looks like:
(you can play with that Electoral College map here)
This assumes that the swing states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Virginia will stay red. The EC count is really close, so if only one of these states votes for Obama, he wins the election.
I've also read in comments that he can win the South because of the African-American bloc. Well, they always vote for the Democratic candidate by a 90-10 margin anyway. The only way to win those Southern states is if African-American turnout increases by nearly 40-50%, which is very unlikely. If Obama were able to pull that off, he'd most likely have fantastic GOTV operations that won him other states as well so the point is moot.
Of course he is much much better off than Clinton who has to win 3 out of 4 of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin. Obama's broad appeal opens up the map for him, but he still has an uphill battle in those few swing states given that they are already favoring McCain. We still have another 6 months to go so who knows what will happen, but I'm just trying to put things into perspective.
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