Rasmussen: Obama ahead of McCain

OK, so we are a little bit obsessed over the daily tracking polls of both Rasmussen and Gallup here at the DailyKos.  But hey, if we weren't watching polls, us young venomous lambs might be out in the streets doing God knows what to all of the mature Serious People out there in the Real World.

So today brings another interesting tid-bit.  According to Rasmussen, Sen. Obama now leads Sen. McCain in head-to-head tracking for the first time in over a month.

More politically-geeky poll stuff after the flip.

The skinny:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama with a statistically insignificant one-point advantage over John McCain, 46% to 45%. While that lead is statistically insignificant, it is the first time Obama has had any advantage over McCain in a month

This would seem to indicate, that at least for now, Obama has pretty much put the Wright controversy behind him.  Although, it was March 9 when Obama last lead McCain and the controversy didn't break until the 15.  But to further support that contention, Obama now has virtually the same favorability rating: 53% - 45% (fav/unfav) vs. McCain at 53% - 44%.  Hillary's numbers, FWIW, are the exact opposite: 45% - 52%.

Obama leads Clinton 50% - 41%, down from a high of 51% - 40% yesterday.  This marks the 5th consecutive day Obama has 50% or higher in polling.

•  Poll Rate RichM...

  Here.

  by RichM on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 08:47:06 AM PDT

  •  another trend line heading north

    (or south, if you are an Obama opponent).

    by nailbender on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 08:54:00 AM PDT

•  I actually tend to think that daily tracking poll

  are better than snapshot polls, because they take into account rolling attitudes.

  by sharris0512 on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 08:48:21 AM PDT

  •  Well...

    Most snapshot polls do occur over several days.  I tend to think that tracking polls show trends.

    by RichM on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 08:54:34 AM PDT

•  I've no problem with tracking polls

  as long as they are kept in perspective. AS I say to everyone who exhibits over-concern when McCain is ahead  in these polls, it don't mean jack squat. 7 Months to go. 7 months ago McCain was politically dead and Clinton was going to be the nominee.

  The tracking polls between Clinton and Obama are a little more viable as they actually refer to a contest that is being engaged in, and who's results are actually current

  by edgeways on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 08:56:51 AM PDT

  •  Rasmussen was pretty good in 2004.

    That said, unless it's a large gap and stable, you only should really lose sleep about the daily tracking poll right before the election.

    by RyoCokey on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:21:37 AM PDT

•  not if Lanny Davis

  has anything to say about it!

  by charlestown dem on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 08:57:04 AM PDT

•  This bodes extremely well

  For when the nomination is actually over and the party coalesces and Hillary gives a ringing endorsement this should all go up quite a bit.

  by greatn on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 08:59:50 AM PDT

•  At age 59

  I don't think I can count as a young venomous lamb. Can I be included as a mature venomous lamb? With maturity comes increased venom.

  by yellowdog on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:00:33 AM PDT

  •  I'm 43...

    And I'm in that boat.  I don't see why you can't sail with us as well.

    by RichM on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:07:44 AM PDT

•  Obama's favorables seem to have rebounded as well

  At least in the Rasmussen polls. Most other polls have shown his favorables only slightly affected by the Wright Scandal.

  by jj32 on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:00:39 AM PDT

•  Does anyone realize

  just how remarkable this is? McCain gets a free ride from the media, Obama is embroiled in a primary fight, and thus unable to go after McCain, and they're still in a dead heat.

  Once Obama is able to go after McCain full time, it's over.

  by MeMeMeMeMe on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:05:59 AM PDT

  •  Yes...

    But it needs to happen sooner rather than later.

    by RichM on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:08:32 AM PDT

    •  then make sure more people talk to people

      in PA to help put this to an end.  The more folks who say in PA it is time to concentrate our efforts on teh General Election and the defeat of John McCain rather than more attacks on Democrats, the better.  So how do you convince more people in PA to think about the future of the Democratic Party and support the candidate that is leading, Senator Obama and end the process there.

      Only PA people could do that in a good way so I call on my friends in PA to talk to your Democratic buddies and ask them to kindly put this nomination to rest so we can concentrate on McCain and taking more seats in Congress and the Senate.

      btw I think there is a sense that this is beginning to make sense and happen in PA... I don't think it's just because Hillary and Penn are doing a number on Columbia Free Trade.  What do you think she was trading Penn for on this one.  He must have one we don't know about.

      by john from vermont on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 11:27:28 AM PDT

  •  I agree plus...

    Once the Democratic Primary is over and McCain goes under the microscope, there is no way any sane individual would vote for him.  So we have just have to figure out how big the insane demographic is in the electorate for the GE and add that to the racist individuals to get a estimate of what the Obama vs McCain GE match-up would look like.  Since insane and racist people can hide in plain sight I don't know how you would actually poll for them.  My guess is that we can use Bush's approval numbers to accurately capture this demographic which I think is at 28%.  So Obama wins GE by capturing 78% of the vote and probably every state.  But lets just keep this between us.

    by NotScared on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:38:35 AM PDT

    •  insane number

      Isn't that around 28% these days?

      by newdem1960 on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:43:23 AM PDT

      •  Yeah I think your right...

        When I get off of work I'll see exactly what the demographic make up of who these people are and if they are likely to transfer their loyalty from Bush to McCain. I'll post what I find later...

        by NotScared on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:48:41 AM PDT

        •  Some of those 28%

          are religious fanatics ... I mean evangelical voters who are suspicious of McCain as not being "reliably Christian" in office. Dobson & Co have been sending mixed signals aplenty.

          by newdem1960 on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:51:24 AM PDT

          •  I thought about that and...

            I'm not sure if the religious crazies, I mean evangelicals or the 'good Christian folk' will stay home in frustration, await the arrival of the mother ship or hold their nose and vote for McCain.  The thing about the insane demographic is trying to determine future voting patterns is almost impossible because well their insane.

            by NotScared on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 10:15:50 AM PDT

    •  There's a term for that demographic

      This is known as the "Crazification Factor".

      by raqsasim on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:49:43 AM PDT

•  It seems that any Democrat

  should be winning this in a walk. With the country in a depression and a war that is less popular than Vietnam and Obama is tied with 4 more years of disaster. I find that troubling.

  by radmul on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:07:53 AM PDT

•  Sorry

  to get technical, but i've taken more statistics classes than i ever cared to.  if the difference in % is statistically insignificant then obama has no advantage.  neither does mccain.  an insignificant finding basically means it's only random chance that explains the difference of one over the other, and that statistically we cannot conclude the "real" difference in % is any different than 0.  basically, obama and mccain, for all intents and purposes, are tied.

  by codyak1984 on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 10:14:59 AM PDT

•  No not really

  as he is fighting two candidates who are using the Main Stream Media to try to further attack him.  To hold even with McCain at the same time dealing with one of the largest and meanest machines of the estblishment, lobbyists, the whole Party in PA (except for Casey) and still keep tied is really amazing. They are beyond throwing mud, the kitchen sink, as they are digging up the septic tank and throwing that too.  

  It like trying to run a marathon with two people pulling on your legs.  Sooner of later you got to kick one off and if you do, you'll have it a little easier to run.  But to be tied with two folks on your legs is pretty amazing.

  I have never seen such concerted effort to destroy someone as  those two candidates in concert with the support of the main stream media.   Hillary, Bill et al are formidable and McCain has huge media behind him like Fox and thousands of journalists.

  Obama is connected to hardly any of these people or media institutions (lies about him having a free ride) and has no real foundation with even the Democratic establishment, who basically don't like him, but realize that he has something going that they don't have.  The grassroots and thousands of contributors and more votes and delegates.

  by john from vermont on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 11:40:06 AM PDT