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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 4/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (12/16-18 results)

If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Kay Hagan, the Democrat, and Elizabeth Dole, the Republican?

Dole (R) 48 (46)
Hagan (D) 41 (39)


If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Jim Neal, the Democrat, and Elizabeth Dole, the Republican?

Dole (R) (49) 47
Neal (D) (39) 37


The margins haven't changed, but Dole is still under 50 percent. While this has been a sleep Senate race thus far (suggested by the lack of real movement in the polls), the potential is still there for the Democratic nominee to reach top-tier status.

I also polled how the Democratic candidates would fare against McCain in November:

McCain (R) 50
Obama (D) 41

McCain (R) 51
Clinton (D) 39

I actually expected a greater disparity than +3 Obama. As other polling has shown in the primary head-to-heads, Obama is currently bleeding white support. It's a trend he'll have to work hard to reverse not just for next Tuesday, but also for the rest of the year if he hopes to be competitive in North Carolina, a state that can absolutely be contested in the fall.

Of course, Clinton, without a fraction of Obama's current problems, is nowhere near being competitive.

Full crosstabs below the fold.

Update: If you are looking for Obama v. Clinton numbers, those will be released by a local media outlet tonight. I generally only pay for Senate numbers while other media outlets pay for the presidential stuff.

NORTH CAROLINA POLL RESULTS - APRIL 2008

The Research 2000 North Carolina Poll was conducted from April 28 through April 30, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.  

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                 287   (48%)              
Women               313   (52%)
Democrats           258   (43%)    
Republicans         221   (37%)    
Independents/Other  121   (20%)
18-29               102   (17%)
30-44               193   (32%)
45-59               184   (31%)
60+                 121   (20%)


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kay Hagan? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

                    VERY                               VERY       NO
                    FAV         FAV        UNFAV       UNFAV      OPINION  

ALL                 10%         34%         17%          8%         31%
MEN                  8%         32%         20%         10%         30%
WOMEN               12%         36%         14%          6%         32%
DEMOCRATS           15%         51%          8%          4%         22%
REPUBLICANS          5%         16%         28%         15%         36%
INDEPENDENTS         9%         32%         17%          4%         38%    
18-29               13%         39%         13%          4%         31%
30-44                9%         32%         19%         11%         29%
45-59               10%         33%         18%          8%         31%
60+                  9%         33%         17%          8%         33%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jim Neal? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

                    VERY                               VERY       NO
                    FAV         FAV        UNFAV       UNFAV      OPINION  

ALL                  8%         30%         21%          9%         32%
MEN                  7%         28%         24%         10%         31%
WOMEN                9%         32%         18%          8%         33%
DEMOCRATS           13%         45%         11%          4%         27%
REPUBLICANS          4%         14%         33%         16%         33%
INDEPENDENTS         6%         28%         21%          5%         40%
18-29               10%         34%         17%          5%         34%
30-44                7%         28%         23%         12%         30%
45-59                7%         29%         22%          9%         33%
60+                  8%         29%         21%          8%         34%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Elizabeth Dole? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):                                                                                        

                    VERY                               VERY       NO
                    FAV         FAV        UNFAV       UNFAV      OPINION  

ALL                 16%         28%         23%         18%         15%
MEN                 17%         30%         21%         17%         15%
WOMEN               15%         26%         25%         19%         15%
DEMOCRATS            9%         17%         35%         29%         10%
REPUBLICANS         27%         42%         12%          6%         13%
INDEPENDENTS        13%         29%         19%         17%         22%
18-29               11%         24%         28%         20%         17%
30-44               18%         30%         21%         16%         15%
45-59               17%         29%         22%         17%         15%
60+                 16%         29%         23%         18%         14%


QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Kay Hagan, the Democrat, and Elizabeth Dole, the Republican?                                                                      

                   DOLE      HAGAN    UNDECIDED        

ALL                 48%       41%       11%
MEN                 52%       38%       10%
WOMEN               44%       44%       12%
DEMOCRATS           15%       70%       15%
REPUBLICANS         87%        8%        5%
INDEPENDENTS        47%       39%       14%
18-29               39%       48%       13%
30-44               51%       39%       10%
45-59               49%       40%       11%
60+                 49%       41%       10%


QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Jim Neal, the Democrat, and Elizabeth Dole, the Republican?

                   DOLE      NEAL    UNDECIDED        

ALL                 49%       39%       12%
MEN                 53%       36%       11%
WOMEN               45%       42%       13%
DEMOCRATS           16%       67%       17%
REPUBLICANS         87%        8%        5%
INDEPENDENTS        49%       38%       13%
18-29               40%       46%       14%
30-44               52%       36%       12%
45-59               51%       37%       12%
60+                 52%       38%       10%


QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?                                          

                  APPROVE  DISAPPROVE            

ALL                 38%       62%                            
MEN                 42%       58%                            
WOMEN               34%       66%                            
DEMOCRATS            8%       92%                            
REPUBLICANS         74%       26%                            
INDEPENDENTS        36%       64%                            
18-29               32%       68%                          
30-44               41%       59%                          
45-59               39%       61%                          
60+                 39%       61%                              


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?

                  MCCAIN     OBAMA    UNDECIDED

ALL                 50%       41%        9%    
MEN                 55%       37%        8%        
WOMEN               45%       45%       10%
DEMOCRATS           17%       74%        9%
REPUBLICANS         86%        5%        9%
OTHER               54%       38%        8%
WHITE               69%       25%        6%
BLACK                8%       78%       14%
OTHER               10%       71%       19%
18-29               41%       52%        7%
30-44               53%       39%        8%
45-59               51%       39%       10%
60+                 52%       38%       10%


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?

                   MCCAIN   CLINTON   UNDECIDED

ALL                 51%       39%       10%    
MEN                 56%       33%       11%        
WOMEN               46%       45%        9%
DEMOCRATS           18%       71%       11%
REPUBLICANS         87%        5%        8%
OTHER               56%       34%       10%
WHITE               70%       26%        4%
BLACK                9%       68%       23%
OTHER               11%       69%       20%
18-29               41%       48%       11%
30-44               54%       37%        9%
45-59               52%       37%       11%
60+                 54%       36%       10%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:55 AM PDT.

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