OR-Sen: Rasmussen--Smith held under 50 by either Dem
by mcjoan
Sat May 10, 2008 at 02:00:31 PM PDT
A new Rasmussen poll of the Oregon Senate race shows Republican incumbent Gordon Smith still under 50%, for the third month in a row.
Any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered potentially vulnerable and this month’s polling contains even more bad news for Smith—support for his potential Democratic challengers is increasing.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Oregon voters finds Smith leading Jeff Merkley by just three percentage points, 45% to 42%. In late March, he enjoyed a thirteen point lead. In February, he was ahead of Merkley by eighteen points.
When matched against Steve Novick, Smith leads by six percentage points, 47% to 41%. In the March poll, Novick trailed by eleven. In February, the gap was thirteen points.....
In Oregon, Smith is viewed favorably by 55% of the state’s voters, Novick by 46%, and Merkley by 42%. The numbers for both Democrats are trending up.
Those figures include just 18% with a Very Favorable opinion of their incumbent Senator. Thirteen percent (13%) have a Very Favorable view of Novick while 9% say the same about Merkley.
Oregon's primary is May 20, and Smith, though unopposed, has hit the airways with an attack ad aimed at both Democrats, all the while trying to present himself as the "change" candidate ("See? I'm just like Obama! Really! Change!")
The latest SUSA poll (May 1) has Merkley and Novick virtually tied, with Novick at 30% and Merkley at 28%, making up the double digit deficit he had in the April poll. Given the decent performance of each of them in holding Smith under 50, the NRSC has another race to worry about.
On the Web:
Jeff Merkley for US Senate
Steve Novick for US Senate
Update: The DSCC has responded to Smith's "change" ad:
Race tracker wiki: OR-Sen
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