Poll: North Carolina and Virgina are in play for the general election (UPDATE)

A new poll out today by Rasmussen shows McCain with only a 3 point lead over Senator Obama (48 to 45).  By any measure this shows that North Carolina is more than just a state "on the bubble" but is a real swing state this year.  The link is provided below:

http://news.yahoo.com/...

A good bellweather of Senator Obama's chances will be the US Senate race between Dole and Hagan.  If Hagan makes it really close or wins I think this will bode well for Senator Obama's chances of winning North Carolina in the fall.

Similarly, Rasmussen has a poll out today showing Senator Obama within three points of McCain in Virginia (47 McCain to 44 Obama).  The link to that poll is provided below:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...

•  But, but, MyDD told me Obama would be

  a disaster in the South, and yet he, unlike Clinton, is in the MOE in Virginia and North Carolina.

  by DemocraticLuntz on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:46:57 AM PDT

  •  He's got the MO'

    in VA and NC, you say?

    by kismet on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:48:53 AM PDT

  •  And he's polling those numbers by a Republican

    firm, before he even adds any new voters on the rolls.

    by Excelscior1 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:59:36 AM PDT

  •  LOL! The idea that Hillary would win the South!

    She's so hated down here in Georgia that she would surely endanger down-ticket candidates throughout the South (save Arkansas).  

    Hillary Clinton = Jane Fonda

    At least in Georgia.

    Is it unfair?  You bet.  But it's true.

    by maconblue on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:00:02 AM PDT

    •  I think that the strength...

      ....of the black vote in the south is going to make Obama at least competitive in states where Democrats usually have no business in being competitive. And, at the very least, this will make Republicans spend more money playing defense.

      by metal prophet on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:13:16 AM PDT

    •  OF course

      Obama has no prayer of winning Georgia either.

      by davybaby on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:46:09 AM PDT

      •  This is what I'm talking about:

        Obama might not win Georgia, but Jim Marshall, a Democrat who hung on by his fingernails last two elections, will win comfortably with Obama upticket.  With Hillary, he'll lose.  And after Hillary and Bill's flirtation with race-baiting, he'll lose by yet more.  I could see Obama coming within 10 in Georgia (7-10), but I can't see him winning.

        by maconblue on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:13:30 PM PDT

•  Yep.

  Considering this comes right after Pastorgate, and knowing that Obama hasn't yet consolidated the Dem base after a hard-fought primary, these are fantastic numbers.  They're no different, statistically, from the last Ras poll showing Obama and McCain tied at 47%.

  NC is definitely in play.  At the very least, St John is going to have to spend big there.  If we can churn out black folks in the lowlands and cities, and nab the middle-class "Yuppies" in Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham, Asheville, etc, we may just pull it off.

  by Drew J Jones on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:47:55 AM PDT

•  Consult Poblano

  ALot is in Play... The landscape looks quite good.

  by Steven R on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:48:28 AM PDT

  •  I checked Poblano

    He shows McCain beating either Clinton or Obama. :(

    by pucklady on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:51:35 AM PDT

    •  McCain in lead since the GOP unified behind him

      McCain did not pull ahead in Poblano's simulations until he clinched the nomination in March. He got something like a 10 point bounce shortly thereafter. As soon as Dems unify, we can expect a similar boost.

      by baudelairien on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:40:51 AM PDT

•  And this is BEFORE the Obama bounce he'll get

  from locking up the nomination.  I bet in a month from now the poll numbers will be reversed.

  by duha on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:50:38 AM PDT

•  You should add Virginia to your title too

  Rasmussen polled both states at the same time, and Obama is within 3 in Virginia as well. These are gettable states. Might be considerations in the VP pick.

  by Maxwell on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:52:56 AM PDT

  •  Pick Webb and both NC and VA move to Obama

    by True Independent on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:53:58 AM PDT

    •  No.

      You guys have got to get off this Webb thing.  I like him, but Webb is not very popular in Virginia.  His approval is below 50%.

      If you're gunning for Virginia, Kaine is the easy pick.  His approval is 57% per the last SUSA poll I found.

      We need Webb's Senate seat anyway.

      by Drew J Jones on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:00:44 AM PDT

      •   Webb is below 50%?

        I thought he was well liked, when and why did this happen?

        by riverdan1900 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:29:25 AM PDT

        •  Long ago.

          Webb was never the super-popular senator people thought he'd be, unfortunately.

          by Drew J Jones on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:44:25 AM PDT

        •  Webb isn't especially popular among Dems

          At least that's my anecdotal recollection from his Senate race. He's got enormous baggage from some misogynistic articles he wrote. He won that race because he was not George Allen.

          IMHO, Webb would be a disaster on the ticket--of Tom Eagleton proportions.

          by Arlingtonian on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:48:55 AM PDT

          •  Yes.

            His approvals, as of mid-March, were barely net positive.  47% Approve, 45% Disapprove, according to SUSA.  Webb is a bad choice.  In fact, I'd bet you that Obama campaigning for him probably helped a helluva lot more than Webb campaigning in VA would help Obama this fall.

            by Drew J Jones on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:55:16 AM PDT

•  Obama may get 50%+ and lose

  Most likely scenario is that Obama wins relatively big this fall, but this is shaping up to have the interesting possibility that Obama wins the popular vote with over 50% (blowouts in energized blue states and real tight gaps in red states that still stay red) but loses the electoral college.  If you look at it right now, that is how it will play out, with virtually no chance of Obama losing the popular vote.

  by SilverOz on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:56:48 AM PDT

  •  i doubt it

    you are one of those Hillary people that can`t stand the thought that you have lost. More likely Obama wins the popular vote by at least 5  I`m betting on a 1980 style election, close until the last week and then most people break for Obama.
    I can see him gettting 350 electoral votes. In fact count on McCain to show his age and do poorly in debates.
    I can see obama even picking up a southern state or two.

    by JOEL1954 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:04:56 AM PDT

    •  Obama is the type of candidate

      who will not get late breaking votes. He will either have them sewn-up, or he won't.

      by riverdan1900 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:12:23 AM PDT

      •  This isn't true, at least not universally

        Remember, the polls in North Carolina showed Clinton narrowing the gap there and showed Obama consistently behind in Indiana.

        by metal prophet on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:15:40 AM PDT

        •  Polls have been notoriously bad.

          What I'm saying is; this is a Dem. year. If it's close were in trouble, remember late breakers favor under-dogs. That under dog is mcCain.

          by riverdan1900 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:20:13 AM PDT

          •  Wow McCain is the underdog in NC?!

            by True Independent on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:36:12 AM PDT

            •  No.

              In this poll, McCain is up by only three points (48-45), but he is still favored.

              by davybaby on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:57:38 AM PDT

•  YES! Look at the 2004 final numbers too

  Look at CNN's 2004 NC breakdown:

  http://www.cnn.com/...

  Bush 56
  Kerry 44

  Bush garnered 14% of the AA vote which was 26% of the electorate. NC 2008 primary saw record AA registrations and vote, and Obama scored 91% vs Clinton. Against McCain, I expect Obama to score more like 94% to 6%.

  Then look at 18-29 block, Kerry won 56 to 43. Another demographic Obama can really increase his margins.

  Independents were 21% of electorate in 2004. Bush won those by 15%, but I think Obama stands much better chance of cutting into that lead.

  Two areas Obama heavily targeted were RTP and Charlotte. Obama could increase Kerry's numbers in Durham, actually win Wake outright this time and possibly Charlotte. The military families in NC swinging Democrat so that's another growth area.

  With real $$$ spent and lots of volunteers, Obama has a SHOT... and that will force McCain and Rethugs to invest in a state they always considered sure thing.

  by scamperdo on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:01:07 AM PDT

•  When I read these crystal

  ball diaries, they make me yearn for the 'bush will suspend '08 elections and declare martial law!' diaries. Neither are especially useful.

  by riverdan1900 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:02:12 AM PDT

  •  I disagree. I think they show a snap shot of the

    current electoral landscape.  This is important because it shows where the campaigns (and volunteers) should put their resources in.  Do you think Obama would spend money and time in NC over the next five months if polls were showing him losing there by 10 plus points?

    by True Independent on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:05:05 AM PDT

    •  in national elections

      candidates usually wait until after conventions before targeting resources. Obama will soon take a much needed break from campaigning, maybe we should, too.

      by riverdan1900 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:10:03 AM PDT

      •  I disagree. Bill Clinton began targeting states

        before the convention in 1996. He spent lots of money and time in states he hoped to win in the fall (notably Florida). Obama will be doing the same thing between now and August.

        by True Independent on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:12:14 AM PDT

        •  Now, that post makes sense

          N.C. will not be part of this mix.

          by riverdan1900 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:14:22 AM PDT

          •  It'd be foolish for it not to be

            It has a very large "high tech" crowd and a goodly number of African-American voters. That automatically makes Obama competitive there. Add the fact that he's got shitloads of money and it really ought to make it part of the mix. Let's not make Kerry's mistake and write off too many states. That leaves far too little room for error.

            by metal prophet on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:17:40 AM PDT

            •  Can he flip the demo's

              in N.C.? That will be very tough against mcCain, he will take military and elderly vote, with an excellent shot at majority of women. Like I said: I hate crystal balls this far out! PEACE

              by riverdan1900 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:23:54 AM PDT

              •  McCain has problems with women.

                I don't see him getting the majority of their vote.  Maybe the 65+ crowd, but the increased youth vote can make up for that easily.

                by choochmac on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:36:12 AM PDT

              •  Don't count on the NC military vote

                The Fort Bragg disgraceful conditions news story hit in NC and more military families are speaking out against the war.

                And if McCain continues to fight against the WEBB GI Bill which Obama co-sponsoring, that could turn the tide.

                As as elderly, there you have a strong case. However, if he can peel away enough AA elderly AND inspire record youth vote, that could help offset seniors to some extent.

                NC very different state than 8 years ago, luckily growth area is in Triangle and Charlotte, both Obama strongholds.

                It will be tough fight but making McCain and Rethugs defend more of the south is GOOD strategy. Anything to stop this counting only on Ohio and Florida disastrous strategy Dems have played too much.

                by scamperdo on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:37:59 AM PDT

                •  That's true for local and house seats

                  very different in Presidentials.

                  by riverdan1900 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:44:38 AM PDT

        •  "Began" is the key word there

          but there is a continuing refinement of the process. In 2000, Bush made no effort in West Virginia--a state that voted for Dukakis over his father in 1988--until a September poll showed him leading Gore.

          by davybaby on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:34:50 AM PDT

      •  I wouldn't know Obama's schedule

        but I think it's a perfect time to get serious about planning out summers in light of the massive effort to conduct a 50-state voter registration and education drive.  So many people are turned off by kitchen sink campaigning and unfortunately have just had the false "both parties are the same" meme reinforced.  While thank God, the divisiveness coming from the Clinton campaign is starting to be dialed back, we have a perfect opportunity to start planning for reaching disaffected, unregistered, potential voters.

        by GN1927 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:16:57 AM PDT

•  NC is blue-ing fast

  As I've mentioned elsewhere, if you look at House elections as a surrogate for party preference, North Carolina has made huge strides.

  In 2002, Democrats received 44.5% of the votes in the off-year House elections.  In 2006, the equivalent percentage was 52.9%.  That's +8.4%.

  We already have 7 of the 13 Congressional Districts, and that'll go to 8 when Larry Kissell beats Robin Hayes.

  by N in Seattle on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:04:51 AM PDT

  •  The NC Congressional map

    was a Democratic gerrymander.

    by davybaby on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:42:56 AM PDT

    •  to assure ultra-safe CDs, right?

      Maybe they'll be smart enough to play offense instead of defense after the 2010 census ... dilute a few districts to make it more possible to win an extra one or two.

      by N in Seattle on Mon May 12, 2008 at 03:46:53 PM PDT

      •  No.

        A 7D-6R split in a state as red as NC is pretty good, and we have a great shot at NC-08, too. I doubt we can do better than 8D-5R.

        by davybaby on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:30:29 PM PDT

•  Wow! Good catch n/t

  by GN1927 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:13:16 AM PDT

•  VA, on the other hand...

  ...is still a tough one if you're to believe the "House as surrogate" model.

  In 2002, Democrats drew an absolutely pathetic 30.4% of the House vote, with no Democratic candidate at all in 5 of the state's 11 CDs (one Dem was unopposed).  By 2006, the Democratic percentage was "up" to 43.6%, with "only" 2 unopposed Republicans and the same unopposed Democrat in VA-03.

  Yes, it's +13.2% in those four years, but still not up to where North Carolina had been in 2002.  And even if we take Tom Davis's seat this year, that would only change the VA House delegation from 8-3 Republican to 7-4 Republican.

  by N in Seattle on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:14:20 AM PDT

  •  This is from gerrymandering, though

    Democratic strength in Virginia is severely diluted. A more fair map would be about 6-5 for Republicans or possibly Democrats.

    by metal prophet on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:19:10 AM PDT

    •  understood

      That's probably why there are so many unopposed Republicans.  In 2006, only VA-02 had a margin under 10%.

      by N in Seattle on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:28:13 AM PDT

    •  Yep, take a look at the 8th district

      every liberal bastion in Northern Virginia is cobbled together, no matter how far apart geographically, all to give the GOP a chance at winning the 11th.

      by Arlingtonian on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:52:46 AM PDT

•  New PPP poll for NC

  Dole: 48
  Hagan: 43

  McCain: 49
  Obama: 42

  Obama only wins Dems by 68-25, which will certainly improve by November.  He also loses Independents by 15 pts.

  http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

  by unertl on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:23:04 AM PDT

  •  The Clinton effect

    or anger.

    by tired of the same on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:39:01 AM PDT

  •  The poll may be underreporting Obama support

    It pegs the portion of the electorate that is 18-29 who will vote as a paltry 8%.  I suspect the actual number will be closer to 12%.

    by True Independent on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:41:59 AM PDT

    •  In 2004, voters 18-29 made up 14% of the

      electorate in North Carolina. You gotta figure it will be at least that much this year, probably more.

      link

      by jj32 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:46:57 AM PDT

      •  Given those numbers the PPP poll result is really

        out of whack, being that they are consciously underreporting a voting group by more than 6 percent.

        by True Independent on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:13:57 AM PDT

  •  women vote

    the women vote is only 49-43 Obama. I expect that will go up once Clinton supporters climb on board.

    also note: Clinton wins AAs only 42-17! Evidence of the negative effect she has had on the community! 42 are "undecided"

    by climateguy84 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:43:08 AM PDT

•  The trend is interesting

  Obama was down 11 in VA last month. So he gained 8 point in one month, yet in NC, Obama slipped a bit, having been tied with McCain last month.

  by jj32 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:44:02 AM PDT

•  All the current polling misses the big picture.

  Obama has been under negative attack from Clinton for months and from mcCain for the past month.

  McCain on the other hand has had a relatively free pass with vey little negative attack.  That will soon change.

  by CTMTN on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:09:34 AM PDT

•  Unfortunately

  Obama has lost ground in both states. He was tied with McCain in North Carolina, and I think he was ahead of him in Virginia. He'll have to try to make that up once the nomination is settled.

  by Angry White Democrat on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:16:04 AM PDT

  •  Actually this is not bad. I would have suspected

    a bigger hit in his numbers from those taken two months ago given the whole "kitchen sink", Wright, etc., issues he has had to deal with since then.  That he is so close even after all that shows he has resilency in these states.  These numbers must be especially troubling to the McCain camp.

    by True Independent on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:43:18 AM PDT

•  the real question is...

  whether or not women's voices women's vote will 'accidentally' set people's houses on fire, slash their tires, etc., in pro-obama communities in swing states on the day of/before the election.  or maybe they'll just put up 'new polling place' signs, and with wil e. coyote set up fake acme polling places manned by bugs bunny in a dress.  seriously.   felons who have served their time -  a lot of whom probably understand more about what's wrong with the country than most americans  - can't vote, but people who have been blatantly involved in voter repression get to stay in the country, let alone retain the right to vote, let alone serve in leadership positions of NGOs and political parties?  

  by panamaniaco on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:18:10 AM PDT