Predicting West Virginia

It's time to take another crack at the primary season parlor game. Democrats and independents will be voting in the West Virginia Democratic primary tomorrow. Hillary Clinton is poised to win a landslide victory in the Mountain State. Barack Obama has already more or less conceded the state. Thevery few polls that have been done show Hillary Clinton with a 30 point plus lead. In the larger Democratic race the results tomorrow will not alter the outcome - Barack Obama already has an insurmountable lead in delegates for the Democratic nomination. But in the prediction game, its a good one to play.

Since the polls are few and the state-wide margin is not really in doubt, I wanted to play the game at a county by county level. For the record, my state-wide prediction is that Hillary Clinton will beat Barack Obama 70.9% to 29.1%. I predict a statewide turnout of 404,542 voters with Clinton getting 286,675 and Obama getting 117,863 votes. There are 665,234 registered Democrats and 156,199 registered independent voters in West Virginia. For comparison, the 2004 Democratic primary turnout was 252,839 voters.

West Virginia is a neighboring state and just a short drive from where I live. The Virginia counties to the west and south of me soon begin to resemble those in West Virginia - largely rural, Appalachian counties with breathtaking views. The West Virginia population is mainly White, with county median household incomes varying from $20,000 to just above $50,000 in a county close to the Washington DC metro area. The percentage of people living below the poverty line is as low as 9% in the counties nearest Washington DC to as high as 25% in most of the rural counties. It is beautiful country, but it is also a place where Bill Clinton is very fondly remembered. Barack Obama will receive below 10% of the vote in some West Virginia counties.

Here are my county-by-county predictions for tomorrow, based on demographic data and 2008 primary results in similar Appalachian counties in Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania:

 

County	Total Votes	Clinton	Obama	% Clinton	% Obama
Barbour	3594	2979	615	82.9	17.1
Berkeley	7106	3979	3127	56	44
Boone	9571	8451	1120	88.3	11.7
Braxton	5202	4500	702	86.5	13.5
Brooke	7195	5274	1921	73.3	26.7
Cabell	20627	12789	7838	62	38
Calhoun	2069	1846	223	89.2	10.8
Clay	3541	3229	312	91.2	8.8
Doddridge	843	715	128	84.8	15.2
Fayette	11267	8800	2467	78.1	21.9
Gilmer	2394	1841	553	76.9	23.1
Grant	530	423	107	79.9	20.1
Greenbrier	8533	6357	2176	74.5	25.5
Hampshire	3485	2704	781	77.6	22.4
Hancock	9024	6651	2373	73.7	26.3
Hardy	2734	2174	560	79.5	20.5
Harrison	18725	13182	5543	70.4	29.6
Jackson	5722	4446	1276	77.7	22.3
Jefferson	6994	2301	4693	32.9	67.1
Kanawha	44454	22494	21960	50.6	49.4
Lewis	3843	3170	673	82.5	17.5
Lincoln	6901	6377	524	92.4	7.6
Logan	10890	9137	1753	83.9	16.1
McDowell	7426	5725	1701	77.1	22.9
Marion	18488	12738	5750	68.9	31.1
Marshall	8656	6968	1688	80.5	19.5
Mason	6627	5673	954	85.6	14.4
Mercer	12202	8712	3490	71.4	28.6
Mineral	4181	3102	1079	74.2	25.8
Mingo	10627	9373	1254	88.2	11.8
Monongalia	14606	6032	8574	41.3	58.7
Monroe	3011	2571	440	85.4	14.6
Morgan	1491	1120	371	75.1	24.9
Nicholas	7112	6109	1003	85.9	14.1
Ohio	9918	5514	4404	55.6	44.4
Pendleton	2285	1782	503	78	22
Pleasants	1918	1532	386	79.9	20.1
Pocahontas	2251	1828	423	81.2	18.8
Preston	4442	3642	800	82	18
Putnam	10478	5187	5291	49.5	50.5
Raleigh	14942	10086	4856	67.5	32.5
Randolph	8035	6219	1816	77.4	22.6
Ritchie	1069	945	124	88.4	11.6
Roane	2944	2579	365	87.6	12.4
Summers	3870	2933	937	75.8	24.2
Taylor	3774	3046	728	80.7	19.3
Tucker	2192	1819	373	83	17
Tyler	1395	1200	195	86	14
Upshur	3170	2495	675	78.7	21.3
Wayne	12238	9986	2252	81.6	18.4
Webster	3958	3574	384	90.3	9.7
Wetzel	5515	4544	971	82.4	17.6
Wirt	1488	1248	240	83.9	16.1
Wood	12547	8783	3764	70	30
Wyoming	6442	5791	651	89.9	10.1

[Cross posted at my blog.]

•  Wild Guess Jar

  Thanks :)

  by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:25:41 PM PDT

  •  She doesn't hit 70%

    She will likely be in the high 60's. I expect Obama to get about 32%.

    Just my guess, but I think many voters see that Obama has this thing wrapped up, and that should help his cause.

    by keenekarl on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:56:29 PM PDT

    •  Larger turnout in a few Obama counties

      and you are right (and I hope you are right).

      by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:03:57 PM PDT

  •  Election Inspection predicts 19/9 delegate split

    Take a look at Elliot's numbers here. He's predicting Clinton 65%, Obama 31%.

    by XStryker on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:10:21 PM PDT

  •  Way optimisitc about Jefferson and Berkeley

    He may well win Jefferson County. But he's not winning Berkeley. Berkeley won't be a total blow out. More like 55-45 for Clinton. But you're also way low on some of the more rural areas.

    Total vote: 68-32, Clinton. Reason: Depressed turnout.  

    by The Bagof Health and Politics on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:18:05 PM PDT

    •  I have Clinton winning Berkeley 56-44

      and I was taken a little aback by the Jefferson numbers but left it alone so as not to break my model. But Jefferson will go to Obama, that I am pretty confident about.

      by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:21:15 PM PDT

      •  Don't be so confident about that

        School (Shepherd) is out of session. And the economy revolves around a slots parlor, not D.C...Additionally, Obama's campaign opened up an office in Martinsburg, not Charlestown. Hillary put her office in Charlestown. There's a something to that. Think Obama made the wrong choice on where to put the office.  

        Misread your Berkeley County post. You're right.

        by The Bagof Health and Politics on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:30:27 PM PDT

        •  Good point

          I'll keep my fingers crossed about Jefferson.

          by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:31:44 PM PDT

        •  multiple Obama presence

          Main Eastern Panhandle office is in M'burg but they've also been running final 3 days of field out of two locations in Jefferson County (Shepardstown and Charles Town).

          by wvablue on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:39:04 PM PDT

          •  Any news on GOTV efforts there?

            by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:44:15 PM PDT

            •  lots going on in Eastern Panhandle

              I saw Hillary supporters doing sign waves in downtown Martinsburg today--they were all volunteers from out of state (it could be there were locals doing other stuff, I don't know).

              There are a lot of motivated local supporters for Obama plus out-of-state volunteers. Sen. Rockefeller stopped by this evening (on his way from the Obama event in Charleston earlier in the day to DC) for a brief pep talk meeting. He was great.

              We've got a full busy day planned for tomorrow. Obama has a lot of field staff in the area and they are putting volunteers to good use. It is an impressive organization, obviously well honed from earlier states.

              by wvablue on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:28:05 PM PDT

          •  It's not the same thing

            Having an office open for a few weeks before a primary is better. It's a way to attract support. Debatable as to whether they should've picked Charles Town or Martinsburg. I kind of side with the former but understand the reasons for the latter. Good luck. I'd come help, but I'm having a medical procedure tomorrow.

            by The Bagof Health and Politics on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:38:57 PM PDT

            •  best wishes

              and good health!

              by wvablue on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:20:02 PM PDT

        •  Tiny quibble - it's Charles Town (2 words)

          Charlestown is in MA (lived in both places - couldn't be more different!)

          by cph on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:42:08 PM PDT

    •  Edwards is on the ballot

      he will get at least 4% like the 4-6% he got in SE Ohio even though he was out.  That should remove some from Clinton's total.  

      So I'm saying 65-31-4.

      by IhateBush on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:46:18 PM PDT

  •  Great job... one point though

    Edwards is on the ballot, too. I'm guessing he'll pick up 3-5% of the vote.

    by wvablue on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:36:43 PM PDT

    •  Too hard to factor him in :)

      Do you think he will pull more from Clinton than Obama? I am not sure how those votes will break. I also suspect we will get a significant number of "other".

      by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:43:24 PM PDT

      •  I'd say from Clinton

        the voters who would choose Edwards now are voters who don't like either Obama or Clinton, and like Obama less, not that they actually like Edwards.

        by IhateBush on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:47:42 PM PDT

      •  Yeah, I agree. :-)

        I think Edwards votes will draw proportionally from both so ultimately it only changes your popular vote totals not your delegate counts.

        It does change the margins, though, which may make some minor psychological difference.

        There is no uncommitted (or other) on the W.Va. ballot... I think KY has both Edwards and uncommitted, but I've no first hand experience there, so I'm not as certain. :-)

        by wvablue on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:59:53 PM PDT

•  It will be ugly but it's only 28 delegates total.

  by kubrick2008 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:27:00 PM PDT

  •  Ugly but expected

    He may be in some trouble in WVA, but he will likely pick off the big prize of Virginia this fall, especially if he puts Mark Warner or Jim Webb on the ticket.

    by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:31:54 PM PDT

•  150,000 turn out to vote

  that's my gut instinct.

  by slinkerwink on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:28:34 PM PDT

  •  Hard one to pin down

    With the primary election all but over it may be low. But I dont think it will be lower than the 2004 number of around 250K.

    by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:30:48 PM PDT

    •  If 252,000 voted in '04, I say 350,000 tops.

      by kubrick2008 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:32:35 PM PDT

      •  You may be right

        I had to add in some independents because in 2004 they could not vote.

        by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:33:35 PM PDT

  •  225,000+ in 2004

    And that was after Kerry clinched the nomination.  Turnout will be at least that, maybe a lot more.  

    Hillary has spent a ton of time there, convincing people there that they can make a difference in the race.  

    Anyone who thinks she's gone, be vigilant. This win will be the biggest margin of any primary so far.  

    It all depends on the news.  I've stopped watching CNN so my TV news comes from MSNBC.  They have moved on.  They are capable of turning on a dime; but since they're predicting a huge blowout I don't see the meme changing.  

    I'm assuming CNN is giving HIllary all the chances in the world.  I was totally done with them last week when Lake COunty, IN was slow getting their count in, and they started yelling "election fraud".  Even John King made such scurrilous accusations.  As if Lake COunty was the only county to have reported late in any of the primaries.  That bordered on Fox-type reporting so I'm done with them.  

    by 57andFemale on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:37:21 PM PDT

•  what's that sound? My "so what" siren going off

  by RichardWoodcockII on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:29:20 PM PDT

  •  Still a fun parlor game :)

    by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:32:14 PM PDT

    •  It's a dangerous game

      and allows the conservatives to create and perpetuate the myth that BO is beatable in the general election.....that more modern conservative politics is what this Country needs....

      No, this needs to end, so we have an opportunity to define the battlefield before they do.

      by RichardWoodcockII on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:44:10 PM PDT

      •  Hope you didnt misunderstand me

        I completely agree the primaries need to end so we can focus on the general election. I meant the only thing at stake tomorrow is the parlor game, so that's how I am looking at tomorrow.

        by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:46:38 PM PDT

        •  they are playing

          Dick Morris and Karl Rove on Fox as "pundits"......Hannity, O'Reilly and Rush.... fueling Hillary.... and suddenly it's totally plausible that the groundswell of democratic support and the overwhelming 2006 rejection of these conservatives, has somehow disappeared?

          by RichardWoodcockII on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:55:57 PM PDT

•  Closer to a 25 point loss based on your chart

  by Engine 08 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:32:05 PM PDT

  •  Unless I did my totals wrong

    it should come to about 71% to 29%

    by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:32:54 PM PDT

    •  I think GOTV in Big city will trump small towns

      in a wide margin giving Barack a better chance than your chart shows.

      by Engine 08 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:37:49 PM PDT

      •  I hope so

        the effect of the media coverage after IN and NC is hard to pin down. I went down the middle with the numbers.

        by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:40:57 PM PDT

•  Yes, but with the nomination locked up,

  will the Hillary supporters even bother coming out to vote

  I know, they have other elections to consider besides POTUS.

  by gabbardd on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:33:14 PM PDT

  •  yes a lot of WVians

    are heavily into local politics

    by Schwa SF on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:34:00 PM PDT

  •  My baseline was the 2004 primary numbers

    of around 250K. There's been a surge in registrations, so I had to add some numbers there. And also had to add in a factor for independents, who are allowed to vote this year.

    I think my number is the worst-case scenario for Obama. I'd rather see an upside surprise from these numbers :)

    by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:35:23 PM PDT

  •  "Locked up" would be 2025.

    This is not "locked up" yet.  I don't trust the Clintons.

    by 57andFemale on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:38:10 PM PDT

•  I don't think there will be a huge turnout

  by ThatPoshGirl on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:33:58 PM PDT

•  Clinton 55% Obama 40%

  I think turnout will be low.

  by Woodwards Friend on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:34:21 PM PDT

  •  Obama would have to

    do really well in some of the more urban centers, while the rural vote stays home. It could happen, but unlikely. Nonetheless, I would love to be surprised.

    by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:37:02 PM PDT

  •  Good Lord!

    that'd be an effective "loss" for her!

    by newdem1960 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:36:31 PM PDT

•  and what does this translate to in terms of

  delegates?  i can't imagine no one here has run those numbers, while we're playing parlor games....

  by Schwa SF on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:34:45 PM PDT

  •  its probably about a 12 delegate pickup

    for Hillary Clinton

    by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:39:23 PM PDT

    •  Based on those percentages - 18 net

      at the very least.

      by ObamaManiac2008 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:53:50 PM PDT

      •  No, even with a 71-29 split it is still likely to

        be only 19-9.

        by cph on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:55:36 PM PDT

        •  Oh... that's what I meant actually...

          I meant to say 10 net.

          by ObamaManiac2008 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:02:07 PM PDT

          •  10 net would be great

            I havent worked it out by CD, and added up the state-wides. I was hoping someone would do that tonight so I wouldnt have to :(

            by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:05:37 PM PDT

            •  It will be 20-8

              your picks give Obama a tad less than 21% in WV-3.

              by IhateBush on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:12:10 PM PDT

              •  My guess upthread was also 20-8

                but I was guessing, and had not done the math. But I will take 10 net if I can get it :)

                by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:15:02 PM PDT

  •  My guess is anywhere between...

    20-8 HRC and 16-12 HRC...I'll go for 19-9 and cross my fingers that she doesn't get the turnout she needs for a massive blowout...

    by Aqualad08 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:44:05 PM PDT

•  I never imagined Hamilton Co IN would go to Obama

  but it went 60% in last week's Primary.  In the first Bush election this county voted 95% Republican.  Times are changing.  I won't be surprised to see Obama hold Hillary to less than 16% majority.

  by drmah on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:34:52 PM PDT

  •  I tried to game plan a better number for Obama

    but the adjoining Virginia counties dont give me much hope.

    by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:37:55 PM PDT

•  I wish I wasn't so addicted to watching

  the results come in. I know it won't be pretty, but I'll watch anyway. But then we'll move on to Oregon!!!

  by bigmama on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:34:57 PM PDT

•  What's Pablano's prediction? nt

  by BradF on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:35:16 PM PDT

  •  Havent seen poblano's yet

    I checked his site but it does not yet have one up.

    by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:43:46 PM PDT

•  This will be the last election night HRC

  gets all to herself.  She'll probably win Puerto Rico, but if Guam's any indication, it won't warrant a whole lot of TV coverage.

  by BradF on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:36:31 PM PDT

  •  She will tout the popular vote gain

    its really the only upside here for her.

    by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:42:35 PM PDT

    •  i wish the MSM would either

      ignore this ridiculous "metric" or explain all the problems with it whenever they mention it at all.  too many people don't understand how awful those numbers are as an indicator of anything (together - i think individually for each state they are useful).

      by Schwa SF on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:17:05 PM PDT

      •  Totally disenfranchising the caucus states

        if the "popular vote" metric is used.

        by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:18:16 PM PDT

        •  yes and also

          mi & fl were not fair votes
          we didnt all vote at the same time, even the same MONTH
          the rules for who can vote are different in each state

          it's like adding fractions without making the denominators the same.

          by Schwa SF on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:20:45 PM PDT

•  Edwards is on the ballot

  Clinton and Obama won't add up to 100.

  by IhateBush on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:39:02 PM PDT

  •  He is? This late in the cycle?

    by Engine 08 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:40:52 PM PDT

    •  yes he is on the ballot

      by rosecar on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:49:36 PM PDT

•  My guess

  Turnout: 410 K
  Clinton 64 Obama 31 Edwards 5.

  by IhateBush on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:39:51 PM PDT

  •  I like your numbers better than mine :)

    by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:41:40 PM PDT

•  This Week: 10 SD Gain for Clinton

  after her strong showing tomorrow.

  by Gooserock on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:42:47 PM PDT

  •  If HRC didn't get a big SD boost after PA,

    I highly doubt she will after WV.

    by BradF on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:44:29 PM PDT

  •  I wouldn't put money on that...

    ...they know the score, and even if she got 10, that doesn't mean she "gains" 10...he's got a lot more than that up his sleeve...

    by Aqualad08 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:46:00 PM PDT

    •  Who would endorse her now? nt

      by BradF on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:48:31 PM PDT

      •  Maybe she will get Republican superdelegates :D

        That Huckabee appearance on SNL was pretty funny!

        by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:49:35 PM PDT

      •  The "voting with my district" crowd...

        e.g., Heath Schuler...there's a handful in WV left, a few in PA I can see going...that's about it, though...

        That CA crowd, though...they have been awful quiet, haven't they? They add 5 add-on on 5/18...

        by Aqualad08 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:00:46 PM PDT

        •  Only Byrd and on Congressman

          Rockefeller and Rahall are with Obama.

          by Elrod on Mon May 12, 2008 at 10:07:27 PM PDT

      •  Gov. Manchin was campaigning with her today

        Here in W.Va. and he's an undeclared super-delegate. Meanwhile, his wife was at the Obama event.

        How's them for some tea-leaves to read?

        by wvablue on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:43:36 PM PDT

  •  My bet is Obama has some supers saved up

    for Wednesday. He seems to have managed them well.

    by jeepdad on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:50:17 PM PDT

    •  edwards? nt

      by Schwa SF on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:14:55 PM PDT

      •  Edwards has all but endorsed

        He should just end the suspense and come out completely. After WVA would be nice :)

        by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:16:06 PM PDT

        •  my hope is

          that WV is exactly what he's been waiting for.  

          by Schwa SF on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:18:49 PM PDT

•  I'm going with

  50.9 Obama
  49.1 Clinton

  Now I'm off to drink some more kool aid.

  by Shocktheworld on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:43:14 PM PDT

  •  Hey! That was my Indiana prediction

    but I like what you are drinking :)

    by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:44:34 PM PDT

  •  Oh, No, Not another Midnight watch party!

    by drmah on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:45:49 PM PDT

    •  But last week was fun

      Especially as her lead kept shrinking :)

      by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:47:21 PM PDT

      •  It sure was! Lake County was an Alternative

        Universe. Are there any places so "Bohemian" in West Virginia?  What about Parkersburg?

        by drmah on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:51:10 PM PDT

        •  Morgantown definitely. Absolutely not

          Parkersburg.  Charleston somewhat.  Wheeling?  Not really.

          by ObamaManiac2008 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:55:50 PM PDT

        •  I am betting Mingo

          makes us wait :)

          by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:56:24 PM PDT

•  This turnout is ludicrously high

  Over 400,000 votes in WV?  Ridiculous.  It will be closer to half that.

  by cph on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:47:32 PM PDT

  •  2004 was 250,000

    This time independents can also vote.

    by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:50:22 PM PDT

    •  Your estimated turnout amounts to 125% of

      the total vote that Kerry got in 2004.  No way that is going to happen, given the continuing Republican tilt of West Virginia.

      by cph on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:52:24 PM PDT

      •  I hope you are right

        I think the nomination being almost over may suppress turnout, but Clinton has been campaigning heavily so I went with the bigger number.

        by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:55:00 PM PDT

        •  During this primary season, in only 3 states have

          the total number of Democratic primary voters exceeded the number of votes Kerry got in the general election: NC, TX and IN.  All three were very heavily contested states.  WV has not been contested.  There simply is no way that there will be 25% more votes in the Democratic primary than Kerry got in the 2004 general election, particularly considering the lack of growth in the WV population and the declining fortunes of the Democrats in WV.  As King Bush I used to say, "Not gonna happen".

          by cph on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:59:50 PM PDT

•  McDowell County will be heavier for Clinton than

  you have it.

  by ObamaManiac2008 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:49:39 PM PDT

  •  Large AA population

    I thought it may go more for Obama. Why do you think it will go more the other way?

    by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:53:30 PM PDT

    •  Lowest percentage of high school graduation

      and bachelor's degrees in the nation (I think).

      You might be right though...  Let's hope.

      It would be nice if none of the counties give Hillary 90% or more of the vote.

      by ObamaManiac2008 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:57:18 PM PDT

      •  A lot of that is the AA population there

        Its 33% below the poverty level with 50% high school and 5% college.

        There is another county in Virginia with similar numbers, but that county is all White.

        by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:01:07 PM PDT

      •  What bugs me is they are PROUD of their ignorance

        Too many years in the classroom made me an advocate to going a far and you possibly can to get an education.  Keep working until you get that degree.  Get that HS or Univeristy diploma at +40 +50 +60 years old, whatever it takes.

        by drmah on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:03:30 PM PDT

•  my guess

  Clinton wins by a margin of 25%-30%. I think Independents will help shrink clinton's win in the state. i think she will win by at the very least 20% and at the most 30%. probably a 25% win for her.

  by gafox on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:53:21 PM PDT

  •  I think that is a much more realistic prediction

    that the diarists.  

    by cph on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:54:09 PM PDT

  •  Independents

    I agree he'll get them, but I think that overall number will be very modest.

    by newdem1960 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:53:41 PM PDT

•  question

  Does anybody think that Obama's visit to West Virginia today will help shrink her winning margin down?

  by gafox on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:55:36 PM PDT

  •  It may help turnout in Charleston

    that may shrink her margin. I went with a conservative scenario for Obama. He may get more votes than I gave him in the counties closest to Washington DC too.

    by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:58:00 PM PDT

•  According to your numbers

  Obama gets about 31% in WV-1, 37% in WV-2, and 21% in WV-3.

  This is a total of 20-8 in the delegate count.

  by IhateBush on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:11:08 PM PDT

  •  that much lower in CD 03?

    I think he'll get at least 30% there

    by newdem1960 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:39:58 PM PDT

    •  well it's what mash's map & math say

      i tend to agree with you but maybe we are just too optimistic :)

      by Schwa SF on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:42:34 PM PDT

      •  Optimism is good

        I predicted Obama 50.4 to 49.6 in Indiana and Obama 57.5% to 42.5% in North Carolina. So, my optimism that time was close to accurate.

        My predictions this time were generally more pessimistic than they would have been if Obama had campaigned in WVA. We also dont know if Clinton votes will be suppressed because the outcome is no longer in doubt. That could give Obama better numbers.

        by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:50:07 PM PDT

  •  20-8 fits Hillary's natural base

    I came to same conclusion here (based on county level past voting and census data).

    I don't think that'll be the outcome, though. I think Obama will improve on those numbers. Here's a prediction I posted on an earlier diary:

    I estimate that Edwards will get up to 5% of the vote statewide. As the non-woman, non-black candidate, Edwards will pick up some of the votes from eventual McCain supporters. (There are lots of DINOs still registered as Dems. in W.Va. and Independents may also vote Dem. to have a say in some other competitive Dem. down-ticket races.)

    My prediction: Obama's superior field organization and the potential drop in Clinton enthusiasm will be enough to bring Obama's totals just inside the "magic numbers." As such, I predict a 4-2, 4-2, and 4-2 split in the 3 CDs and a 2-1 and 4-3 split at the state level for a 18-10 overall delegate advantage for Clinton.

    What to watch: CD2 offers some upside for Obama, as he could possibly move it to a 3-3 split. CD3 offers the most challenge for Obama as it could end up a 5-1 split.

    by wvablue on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:39:42 PM PDT

•  delegate counts for those who care

  since this is still silly parlor tricks.

  in each district (there are 3 more or less like horizontal bands across the state) if obama gets anything from 25-40% of the vote the delegates split 2/4.  i can't imagine anything different happening.

  obama-6
  clinton-12

  for the pleos there are only 3 so anything from 15-50% gives obama 1 and clinton 2.

  obama-7
  clinton-14

  then the remaining 7 at-large delegates fall like:
  15-21.4% O1/C6
  21.5%-35.7% O2/C5
  35.8% - 50% 03/C4

  so i'd put my money on O2/C5 and say the night ends obama-9, clinton-19 with a shot at 10/18 if the total popular vote comes in nicely in our favor.

  by Schwa SF on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:12:25 PM PDT

•  Pocahontas disconnect

  Obama supporters managed to get the entire state convention slate there (shutout), yet you give him 18%? If he had that kind if ground game, I think he'll do better than that, no?

  by newdem1960 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:33:44 PM PDT

  •  ground game

    I am hoping for a few extra points because of the ground game. If Obama had campaigned in WVA, I would have given him better numbers. But the demographics are very tough for him in Pocahontas county.

    There isnt much of a population there, so GOTV could tilt this one significantly.

    by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:40:29 PM PDT

•  Rockefeller/Rahall get any credit?

  They endorsed quite a while ago

  by newdem1960 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:44:13 PM PDT

  •  Rahall's been taking a lot of flack

    I expected Rockefeller to do more campaigning. My sense is that he has been very quiet.

    I am hoping for better numbers than I predicted. But the Virginia counties that have already voted to the west and south of me dont give me much confidence.

    by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:47:02 PM PDT

    •  Mash, lots of good work here - question for you

      How readily to voter preferences translate across state lines?  Are there cultural, historical or other differences between the states that are not picked up by the demographic data?  For example, I live in MA and the adjacent county in NH, although demographically similar, is quite a bit different politically.  

      by cph on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:50:33 PM PDT

      •  I would say it depends

        I think the Appalachian counties in VA west of the Shanandoahs are politically quite similar to the one's across the state line. They are completely rural and (I am going to get in trouble for this) not influenced by nearby metro areas.

        As a general rule though, I think state lines make quite a bit of difference politically.

        I think those to the West and North in WVA dont translate so seamlessly. I have tried to look at which metro areas influence some of these counties and tried to factor those in.

        by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:00:51 PM PDT

        •  Here's a rule of thumb that might work...

          When you cross a river the political boundary is stronger than when you don't.

          Here in W. Va. in the West you've got the Ohio River and up North you've got the Potomac. In the East the Shenadoah is already within W.Va. (right?).

          Between VT/NH there's the CT river divide.

          Maybe it works, maybe it doesn't...

          by wvablue on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:49:36 PM PDT

•  Better that you think - here is why

  The Clinton supporters might have been watching more television that we give credit for.  Many of the Clinton folks will think she has already lost this race and they will not come out to vote.  Not everyone believes she can 'pull this thing off'.

  The Obama supporters however know they must come out to vote because he is projected to lose big time in WVA.  These folks will go to the polls in record numbers.

  Edwards supporters will take about 3-5% (or more) away from Clinton.  Remember there are lots of folks who think if they vote for Edwards he will get back in the race.  They do not understand this will never happen.

  This is not based on anything - just my humble opinion.  The power of positive thinking.....

  I am looking at Obama 40% Clinton 50% and Edwards 10%  -- an old girl can dream can't she??  Sure she can!!

  Plus I would love to see Tweety (Chris Matthews) go absofuckinlutely stark raving mad -- if this were to happen.

  by Ant Jazz on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:56:11 PM PDT

  •  I am hoping

    that the kind of analysis you presented actually drives the vote tomorrow. The Obama voters are more motivated in general. That is balanced out somewhat by Bill Clinton being in the state pretty much all this week. The question is how many voters will Bill reach. He is a big factor in WVA, at least in areas he has visited.

    by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:03:41 PM PDT

  •  Forget Tweets

    50/40/10 would give poor Chuck Todd a heart attack I fear, and Keith would be saying: "Sen. Clinton, you (pointing finger at camera), out NOW! (thumb gesture to side)"

    by newdem1960 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 09:10:18 PM PDT

•  Re Superdelegates

  Are you wiser-than-me ones certain that the undeclared SDs have not already factored in the result there, which has been predicted in the diarist's approximate range since very early in the race. I am not sure what Obama's leaked projections said about W Va except that he would not win it, but if the high number has long been a feature of the political landscape, it changes nothing prospectively, does it? No turning point or pivot point if it's been clear this would happen since January.

  by Christy1947 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:21:37 PM PDT

  •  more SDs will move Obama's way

    I think the results in WVA were expected for a while. If Obama outperforms expectations, that will only help him.

    by Mash on Mon May 12, 2008 at 11:47:21 PM PDT