Are Virginia and North Carolina in play?

The latest Rasmussen polling numbers indicate that both Virginia and North Carolina will be closely contested in November, and that Obama and McCain have very different profiles of support in those states.

Virginia: Obama 44(41), McCain 47(52)
North Carolina: Obama 45(47), McCain 48(47)

That is a fairly large move in Virginia (where the previous poll was released on March 27), and little to no movement at all in North Carolina (where the previous poll was released on April 10.)  This is the first time that Rasmussen has shown McCain with only a single digit lead in Virginia, and it is the second time they have shown North Carolina to be essentially tied.

Perhaps even more interesting is the nature of the support for Obama and McCain in each of these states.  There is not a lot of difference in total favorable opinion and total unfavorable opinion for these candidates in each of these states:

Virginia: McCain 60/37 (favorable/unfavorable); Obama 51/35
North Carolina: McCain 53/44; Obama 51/46

However, the electorate in these states is much more polarized in its opinion of Obama, and much more wishy-washy in its opinion of McCain.  In Virginia, Obama's "very favorable" and "very unfavorable" numbers are the same at 31; only 33% fall into the combination of "somewhat favorable" or "somewhat unfavorable."  Much the same is true in North Carolina, where Obama's "very favorable" (37) and "very unfavorable" (30) numbers are both high, while only 30% fall into the combined "somewhat" categories.  Pretty much the opposite is true for McCain in both Virginia and North Carolina, where his "very favorable" and "very unfavorable" numbers are relatively low, and the "somewhat" numbers account for most of the electorate -- 61% in the combined "somewhat favorable" and "somewhat unfavorable" in Virginia, 56% in North Carolina.

I expect that this pattern will repeat in many states, with the electorate polarized on Obama and wishy-washy on McCain.  If Obama can avoid increases in "very unfavorable", and can persuade even a few of McCain's weak supporters away, then he should do very well in Virginia, North Carolina, and nationally.

•  I think VA and NC will be in play

  But so will NH and PA

  by sharris0512 on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:22:01 AM PDT

  •  Colorado, N.Mex., and Nevada, too....

    by serrano on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:25:24 AM PDT

    •  Don't laugh but

      Montana and the Dakotas may be in play. Obama already has a great organization in those states, they have elected popular statewide Dems, and they largely aren't filled with fundies.

      Plus maybe 1 EV from Nebraska.

      AND... South Carolina may actually be in play; a huge Black turnout + white liberals in the state (there are some) may put it within reach.

      Surprised how badly both BHO and HRC have been polling in NH. Is that state more responsive to a "maverick?"

      by psycho liberal on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:41:18 AM PDT

      •  How About Iowa, Missouri...

        by serrano on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:44:12 AM PDT

        •  Yup,

          IA, MO, MN, WI -- probably all look better than in '04, imo.

          by psycho liberal on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:50:22 AM PDT

    •  The True Beauty of This....

      is that McCain will have a severe financial deficit (sound familiar?) and our favorite Poker Player can bluff his ass all over the map---his guys will be dizzy and scared, and they, unlike Barack, will get little to no help from down-ballot candidates, fighting like hell for their own survival...

      by serrano on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:46:03 AM PDT

      •  I was actually reading somewhere...

        That Barack actually is a good poker player.  Makes that Hillary 'experience' crap look pretty small, doesn't it.

        by RichM on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:00:15 AM PDT

        •  Absolutely!!! He Took $$ From the Repugs

          in the Illinois Senate--let's make sure he has the Winning Hand!!!

          by serrano on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:16:50 AM PDT

  •  PA has been in play...

    For the last two general elections.  This one will be no different, especially now that Senator Clinton has highlighted the "weak support" Obama has gotten there.  The new states that are in play are the interesting ones, because they are coming from the Red State column... Virginia and North Carolina?  Wow.  And potentially Texas and possibly South Carolina.  It will be an interesting few months leading up to the convention.

    by BasharH on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:27:01 AM PDT

•  Yes!!! The South Will Rise Again!!!

  ...on the right side of history this time....

  by serrano on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:24:55 AM PDT

  •  I'll be happy if Obama just makes McCain...

    Defend the South.  It would be great to take Virginia and North Carolina (and my dream of dreams, Texas) but I need more evidence of such a shift before putting too much weight in general election numbers with Senator Clinton still hanging around.  The real interesting contests will be in the Mountain West.

    by BasharH on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:28:38 AM PDT

    •  Yes!! Particularly w/Bob Barr & the Libertarians

      There is a fierce Independent streak in the Mountain West, and they're frankly not that scared of Black Folks 'cuz there just aren't that many....

      by serrano on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:32:31 AM PDT

    •  And the Southwest

      Obama first needs to win MI and PA.  Then he needs to work on OH -- doesn't have to win it, but it is too big of a chance to let go without a fight.  Then he needs NV, NM, and CO so that he can lose FL without losing any chance at winning the presidency.  After that he can try to start the landslide with states like VA and NC.

      by Foodle on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:36:37 AM PDT

•  It's hard to say, but I think yes.

  I think it's the fundamentals, the intensity of support, and the strength of the candidates.  A 6+ point Obama victory certainly brings them into play.

  by lastman on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:25:04 AM PDT

•  Tip jar

  I always forget to post this....

  by Foodle on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:25:27 AM PDT

•  As a Virginian,

  Virginia will be very close.  We've been getting bluer every year.  

  The Kerry states in play probably consist of NH and possibly PA or WI.

  The Bush states in play are VA, NC, MO, OH, CO, IA, NM, NV, and possibly FL.

  by science on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:25:37 AM PDT

•  Lots of new voters

  will help Obama, and lots of stay-at-home voters will also help Obama.

  I'd say he has a real chance in those states.  When the general starts, and people see that McCain is a likable guy with absolutely no new ideas, some will vote for Obama even if they don't particularly like him.

  by billysumday on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:26:32 AM PDT

  •  Is McCain all that likable?

    If we equate "very favorable" with likability, Virginians (20%) and North Carolinians (18%) don't like McCain all that much.  In fact, they like (and dislike) Obama quite a bit more.

    by Foodle on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:33:21 AM PDT

•  Absolutely...and if the work is done on the

  ground...the turnout among young people and African-Americans is going to be off the charts. It will shatter records. These are two ideal states for this campaign and it's message of change. These are states in flux, becoming younger, more ethnically diverse, and more educated by the hour. Turnout will be everything. Registering new voters is happening now in both states and will continue through the summer months.

  The opportunity for real gains in purple states is huge. Losing New Hampshire is likely. But so too is holding Pennsylvania -- Rendell is a master at turnout and again, the young/african-american turnout will be enormous.

  But Virginia and NCarolina -- big time opportunities if the work is done on the ground. (I'll be heading over the bridge to Arlington to register voters all spring and summer long.)

  by joemcginnissjr on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:29:26 AM PDT

  •  Polls vs. Demographics

    Poll-less, demographic models like Poblano's did a good job of predicting the Democratic primary results in VA, NC, and several other states where the polls almost uniformly underestimated Obama's support by large margins.  If the same holds true for Obama vs. McCain polling as it did for Obama vs. Clinton, then Obama should win both VA and NC by at least as much as the polls currently show him behind.

    by Foodle on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:40:01 AM PDT

    •  Good point -- though it won't happen without the

      hardest of hard work on the ground -- registering new voters and tracking them and turning them out on November 4th. That's the only way state like Virginia and NCarolina and even Georgia, Louisiana and Nevada can turn. It's all possible.

      by joemcginnissjr on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:46:47 AM PDT

•  They are in play

  In 2004 I think Kerry only stopped here in NC once. Big mistake. I grew up here and this place is changing by the day. Look at our state offices, majority dems. The turnout could over take the repubs. The only problem I have with Obama is he has a light schedule. He really needs to step it up with more stops in one day. He doesn't cover a lot of ground.

  by tired of the same on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:30:51 AM PDT

•  i think they will, because Obama hasn't even

  gotten the "I'm the nominee" bump that Mccain has had since he locked up the nomination.

  That's worth several points.  I think the bump will be even bigger because he bested both Clintons in such a hard fought contest.  He'll get much respect from the punditry as being a tough political fighter and being able to withstand heavy fire.

  by duha on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:31:17 AM PDT

•  Both in play . . .

  potentially.

  I live in Virginia -- and I've wavered a little bit on this one.  Early on I would have said yes.  Now I say -- possible -- IF the national factors continue to trend against Bush (e.g. in reference to gas prices, food prices, the economy, the war).

  I'd be curious to see the cross-tabs for Rasmussen.  The challenge for Obama is getting his support levels in the southwestern part of the state to around 40 percent.  Barring that he could also win a turnout battle against McCain -- as he did against Clinton during the primary (e.g. the areas where Clinton had her 35-40 percent victory margins had turnout that was 8 to 10 percentage points below the state average.  Obama was getting his 30-35 percent margins in areas where the turnout was about 10 percent above the state average).

  by NotGeorgeWill on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:38:16 AM PDT

  •  weather

    It may very well be that Virginia will be decided by the weather.   If the weather is poor in SW Va, but good in NoVa, Obama could win easily.   The geographic disparity is huge.

    by science on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:44:36 AM PDT

    •  That was probably a factor . . .

      during the primary.  

      You might recall that there were fires along the southern Appalachian ridge a couple days before the election.  Then on election day we had the ice storm which hit the south of the state around 2 PM -- it didn't hit NoVA until about 5 or 6 PM.  Obama still wins the primary, but better weather might have helped him move a couple percentage points in Clinton's favor.

      by NotGeorgeWill on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:52:51 AM PDT

•  Hell I think Georgia could be in play too

  with the large urban center of Atlanta and a large AA population throughout the state.

  by MasterHurrikane on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:47:44 AM PDT

  •  Nope

    Georgia is one of two states in the Nation which have actually gotten redder since 2005. I count it as frankly miraculous that we didn't lose either GA-08 or GA-12 in 2006. If we end up picking up 10 seats in the house but losing one or two in GA, it wouldn't surprise me much.

    by naraht on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:06:40 AM PDT

•  so NC likes Dems better without Edwards ? ?

  sorry I don't go by one Rasmussen ever.

  VA is a very red state in prez elections and for O to win VA Tim Kaine would have to be VP.

  I can see NC tossing out Dole but I can't see us winning there or GA in anything other than a national landslide.  

  All three are heavily military base states and once McCain revs up his campaign in them he should do as least as good as Bush.

  The CO,NV,NM strategy makes much more sense.  

  by reformerdc on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:52:47 AM PDT

  •  Thanks for some sanity.

    According to the NY Times on Sunday, the McCain and Obama campaigns see the battleground states as Pa., Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, etc.

    Obama sees Va. as possible.

    It will be a close election.  Some folks still are not reality based here.  

    by TomP on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:56:01 AM PDT

    •  yep those are the states that will decide

      those, together with MN & OR have been slowly moving toward the GOP in prez elections for many years except OH,NV,CO,NM which have been glacierly moving Dem.

      In prez elections the numbers never move much by state from one 4-yr cycle to the next unless there's a Goldwater or Dukakis. I don't think McCain's a Goldwater and sure hope O's not a Dukakis.  

      by reformerdc on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:34:20 AM PDT

  •  they are both in play IMO

    and it's because their liberal centers have been growing and growing, especially during the housing boom.

    by terra on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:06:52 AM PDT

  •  Military States are not as red as you might think

    McCain's 100 year war position is not playing as well with the military (or their families) as you might think.  Especially amongst the enlisted force there is a strong desire to declare victory and get the hell out.  The hard part for Obama (as for any dem) is to be anti-war whithout being anti-military.

    by Paul G on Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:28:08 AM PDT

•  Concentrate on voter registration in VA and NC.

  If he can register another 200k a piece in both state , he will easily be able to win both..

  Now , i dont know whether the Obama campaign can find 200k unregistered voters in NC/VA since you'd think that most people who were interested in voting had already registered..

  Im watching the voter registration drive very carefully , specially in those 2 states and 200k in NC/VA would give Obama a huge edge..

  I also believe that Obama will need to consolidate the democratic base and if he does that at about a 80% clip , he should easily win NC/VA.

  The reason why McCain is beating in in both states is because Obama is not consolidating the base yet..I think he's getting about 69% of the democratic voters while the rest says they will stay home or vote for McCain.

  This is why it is so important that this race ends very soon so that he has lots of time to egt those folks to unite around him..

  If McCain can unite the GOP base , at about an 85% clip , i dont see why Obama cant do the same at about an 80% clip.

  by BlueStateLiberal on Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:59:34 AM PDT

•  Definitely Virginia

  It was already on the radar screen before this poll. I was pretty discouraged last time Rasmussen released Virginia polls showing McCain with a double digit lead, so this is encouraging.

  by democrattotheend on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:24:30 AM PDT

•  I Think So

  In Va it will likely hinge upon voter turnout, particularly in the east and southeast which have a considerable African-American population.

  If Obama chooses either Jim Webb or Tim Kaine (or possibly Mark Warner) as his running mate I think that will do the trick for sure.

  NC is looking good from what I've seen, and again it'll hinge upon voter turnout.

  All this assumes no hanky-panky such as voter disenfrancisement etc.

  by dewley notid on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:36:58 AM PDT

•  There Are Some ...

  historic opportunities for Democratic gains in Virginia this fall. In Northern Virginia, there is one extremely realistic House pick-up opportunity in the 11th district and competitive races in others. Statewide, there's Mark Warner's Senate campaign. These factors should push Democtratic turnout in the fall. Obama will need to roll up big numbers in the close-in counties like Fairfax, and in Norfolk, Charlottesville and other traditionally strong areas. Virginia hasn't gone blue for a presidential candidate since 1964, but this could be a very good year.

  by D in Northern Virginia on Mon May 12, 2008 at 07:39:15 AM PDT