West Virginia prediction thread
by kos
Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:39:44 AM PDT
Checking in from sweltering El Salvador, where the family news isn't so great, and where a brief trip to the beach for my baby girl led to having half my right leg fried by a jelly fish. So a little political talk will prove a nice distraction.
Not much drama tonight, as no one expects Obama to be competitive in the state that includes the most hostile anti-Obama combination of demographics in the entire United States. Just look at the map of counties that Clinton has won with over 65 percent of the vote:
Yup, West Virginia (and Kentucky next week) will be ugly for Obama. Expect lots of talk about Obama's "white" problem, before he goes on to win white Oregon convincingly next week.
In any case, looking around for predictions, I find:
Jerome: 62C - 35O
Poblano: 67.4C - 28.6O
PsiFighter37: 70.8C - 29.2O
Al GIordano: 69C - 31O
SUSA didn't poll the race. Rasmussen has nothing recent. There's no poll available to gauge where the late deciders might be heading, and not enough polling to even come up with a decent average. So polling won't help make any guesses.
Since I've been dealing with family stuff, I haven't had a time to look at the machine element of my calculation (i.e. mayors). A quick google finds nothing of note for either candidate. Sen. Jay Rockefeller endorsed Obama, but you all know what I think of senator endorsements. They ain't worth squat. The state's governor, Joe Manchin, is sitting this race out, so whatever machine he might have (and I don't think it's much of one) isn't engaged (at least not publicly). I'll call it a wash.
Demographically, I trust Poblano's numbers.
What I have no clue about is turnout. Will Clinton partisans still turn out given that their candidate has already been declared dead? I suspect Obama partisans will turn out regardless. They're on the winning team, and that's quite the motivation. But what's left to motivate those Clinton supporters?
As you all know, I pull my predictions from you-know-where. And without any good polling, and without having paid any attention to this race all week, my you-know-what is running even blinder than usual. So I'm going to take Poblano's numbers and make a 5-point adjustment against Clinton to account for a hypothetically demoralized base.
Clinton 61.4
Obama 32.9
Edwards 1.7
Of course, this is all academic. Tonight's results don't matter to the eventual outcome of this race.
p.s. Here's Poblano on the notion that WV is a "racist state":
I do want to write a little bit more about the notion that West Virginians are racist. The longer version will have to wait until later today or tomorrow. But the short version is: yes, there are racist voters in West Virginia, but there are racist voters in every state. The primary determinant of the extent to which racism tends to be more manifest is education levels, and so the effects may be more noticeable in West Virgnia, a state with poor academic achievement. But there is no reason to believe that West Virgnians are particularly racist, relative to their education levels.
p.p.s. To all you Obama supporters tempted to belittle or insult West Virginia, just remember how annoying it has been when the Clinton camp has done that to Obama states like Idaho and Utah and Mississippi. A 50-state strategy means just that. You don't go around insulting states.
p.p.p.s. I'll be fully back on the job next week. See you guys then.
Update: See how out of it I am? I didn't realize Edwards was still on the ballot. I've edited my prediction to account for some Edwards votes.
- ::