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The smell of Republican pessimism is almost as good as the aroma of fresh coffess in the morning. And today, with regard to the MS-01, there is plenty of pessimism in the air. First comes a report from the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza that national Repubicans may have been ready to throw in the towel as early as this past weekend.

Despite the onslaught of spending, knowledgeable sources on both sides of the aisle insist little has changed in the last 21 days. Childers is believed to have a mid single digit lead over Davis with Republican strategists turning pessimistic about their chances in the last 48 hours or so.

And finally, I leave you with this little nugget from Redstate.

Any MS posters and can u tell us what the feeling of this race is? The election is Tuesday and should be very close.

Davis had Cheney come in today. Was this a good move?

Any MS posters I have a bad feeling....

Your updates are great, but something like this is best left to an open thread. That said, it looks like the bottom is falling out nationally. I hope I'm wrong, and I very well could be, but I don't think we manage to hold this.

A rampant rumor is that Childers leads by about 5% in interal polls. However, is such a red district, that does not give us a lot of room to breath. It's going to come down to GOTV, where I think we have the advantage after the DCCC recently spent a lot on phones, literature and field organizing. Let's keep our fingers crossed.

Originally posted to RandySF on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:50 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Worried (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    peace voter, rmx2630, CCSDem

    This district is less African-American than LA-6.  The Republicans' race-biting tactics might end up working here.

    Republican test runs using the Obama connection have not been uniformly successful. Last week, after using similar tactics, the party lost a special election in Louisiana to a Democrat with the support of a large black turnout.

    But there are signs that here in Mississippi, with its tortured legacy of race-based politics, the tactic may be working, particularly in a district with a comparatively smaller black population than in Louisiana, 26 percent. Mr. Childers’s campaign said his negative rating among voters has risen acutely, internal polls show a sharp narrowing in the contest, and interviews with voters indicated the supposed Childers-Obama link could influence votes.

    http://www.nytimes.com/...

    If Hillary Clinton wins, the Democratic Party loses.

    by Paleo on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:55:43 AM PDT

    •  Me too (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Steve Singiser, CCSDem
      The Davis campaign manager sounded more optimistic in one of the local newspapers today too. It's a very red district, so even coming close, with Republicans spending all their money wouldn't be bad. Anyway, it's going to be close so GOTV!
      •  ??? What did he say? (5+ / 0-)

        Mike DeWine was confident he'd win in '06.  It's something you do.  You don't want your supporters to doubt you.  If they doubt, they might not go out and vote.  

        •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MooseHB
          It could be just that. Republicans are certainly pulling out all the stops though, especially in desoto county. Here's the article...

          http://www.commercialappeal.com/...

          "Ted Prill, Davis's campaign manager, said, "Every indication we have makes us more and more excited about tomorrow, and more optimistic. There's a very clear ground swell."

          "I think the biggest thing is getting people out to vote," Prill said. "We want everybody to get out and vote and hopefully vote for the candidate who shares their values, and we believe that's Greg Davis.""

        •  Mikey DeWhiny WAS going to win (3+ / 0-)
          Until he woke up every morning asking himself  "How can I shoot myself in the foot today?" and proceeded to run an epically bad campaign. Polls pretty much showed him leading comfortably until the late spring, and there was no reason to believe that, as a better-funded incumbent with no strong negatives, that he would not.

          The good news is he's now John W. McBush's Ohio state campaign chair. Mikey, work your campaign magic for McBush!

          We're retiring Steve LaTourette (R-Family Values for You But Not for Me) and sending Judge Bill O'Neill to Congress from Ohio-14: http://www.oneill08.com/

          by anastasia p on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:38:30 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I vote in this race today (4+ / 0-)

        My republican parents have been getting robocalls from pres bush and other MS GOP politicians. Huckabee came to my town, and Cheney's supposed to be in another town in the district (Davis's hometown). If you don't understand why they would enlist ridiculously unpopular GOP officials to campaign for the GOP, the answer is turnout. A visit is free press, and press =  turnout. this is a very red district, and turnout is the GOP's best friend.
        Bottom line, this race is significantly more high-profile today than it was when Childers(D) led Davis(R) 49-46, so I'd say a 3 point victory is out of reach, hopefully not too far out of reach though.

        Your comments are being interpreted in a manner consistent with the powers of the Unitary Kossack

        by taricha on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:32:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  this district is ... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      peace voter, RandySF, MooseHB

      a gerrymandered nightmare of Appalachia and white flight Memphis suburbs basically totally African-American free.  That being said, even polling EVEN with the Republicans here is a major victory.  To be up 5 in the Repub's internal polling (its true, I might have ... ehm ... seen the data) is a freaking MIRACLE.  If we win this, we can carry MS in November.  And I never thought I would say that ...

      ever.

      "Any single man must judge for himself whether circumstances warrant obedience or resistance to the commands of the civil magistrate" John Locke

      by TheGryphon on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:13:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  It can only be good for Democrats (6+ / 0-)

    the GOP is spending a lot of money on races they normally don't have to worry about.

    John McCain - Like W. Only Older.

    by InsultComicDog on Tue May 13, 2008 at 06:57:34 AM PDT

  •  Keep us posted if he wins!!! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CCSDem, MooseHB
  •  Trifecta for '74 Redux!!! (7+ / 0-)

    In 1974, three Dem Victories in specials presaged the famous landslide that year.  Let's do it again!!!

  •  I've been studying it this morning (11+ / 0-)

    Cheney only dragged in "hundreds" to the DeSoto Civic Center, the stories I quoted in my diary said a lot of the seat warmers were children.

    Previously that day, Davis spoke to a "crowd of thirty" in Tupelo, home of his vanquished/smeared GOP rival from the first election.

    •  so the local schools filled up the place? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Empower Ink, MooseHB

      So basically, some of the local schools got tickets for the kids to go see the VP speak?  Good civic lesson for the kids, bad sign for the GOP.

      •  Was it required? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MooseHB
        I know someone whose daughter and son- in-law were serving at Bagram Air Force Base in Kabul and when Cheney showed up, there was so little interest they had to practically order people to come. They did not go, but the person I know did send me a nice photo of her son-in-law with Al Franken on his visit there.

        Also, when Cheney made a fundraising visit to Cleveland for Oh-13 candidate Craig Foltin in 2006, Foltin never put any photos up on his website. It was almost like he didn't want people to know he'd ever been near Cheney. Ploy didn't work: he got stomped by Betty Sutton, widely rated as Ohio's most liberal congressperson.

        We're retiring Steve LaTourette (R-Family Values for You But Not for Me) and sending Judge Bill O'Neill to Congress from Ohio-14: http://www.oneill08.com/

        by anastasia p on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:42:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Merely "hundreds" in DeSoto County, too. (3+ / 0-)

      Southaven, specifically, where Greg Davis is mayor. The county is experiencing a bit of voter fatigue due to the many elections recently held, and only 12,000 came out to vote in the last election out of roughly 70,000 or so registered voters. Their hope is that this time more people from Davis' hometown will GOTV and offset the eastern part of the district where Childers is winning. I hope they don't. ;)

      This quote from The Commercial Appeal this morning was priceless:

      The Democrat (Childers) didn't schedule a Monday stop in DeSoto County, but said he meant no offense.

      Referring to Cheney, Childers said, "We thought bringing Big Oil's best friend to DeSoto County was punishment enough. There certainly wasn't an omission."

      "You must be the change you wish to see in the world." - Gandhi

      by missLotus on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:25:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Best freshest election overview link I (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        missLotus, peace voter, RandySF, MooseHB

        found this morning, with insights into some ill-will created slurring his GOP-opponent from Tupelo.

        From Tues. morning presses:

        http://news.yahoo.com/...

        Davis is also still suffering the aftereffects of a bitter primary against former Tupelo Mayor Glenn McCullough, in which Davis accused his rival of unethical behavior when heading the Tennessee Valley Authority. McCullough has not actively supported Davis, and the negative primary campaign appears to have given voters pause.

        "I'm a Republican from the governor on down, but I would write someone else's name in before I would vote for Davis," said Curtis Ryan, a businessman from Tupelo. "It's a proven fact that Glenn McCullough let him get away with these negative attacks."

        The stylistic differences between the two candidates are apparent. Davis hasn't spoken in any of his commercials since winning the nomination, instead relying on a narrator and his wife to deliver his campaign's message.

      •  "Big oil's best friend" (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        missLotus, MooseHB
        That's priceless. The guy is a wit too.

        Whether Childers wins or not, this race was costly for the GOP.

        We're retiring Steve LaTourette (R-Family Values for You But Not for Me) and sending Judge Bill O'Neill to Congress from Ohio-14: http://www.oneill08.com/

        by anastasia p on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:43:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Good deal - (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    serrano, CCSDem, InsultComicDog, MooseHB

    Hopefully the DCCC has tweaked their strategy after the suprisingly close LA-06 race.  

  •  When life give republican lemon (4+ / 0-)

    Bob Barr make lemonade for republican presidential hope

  •  I saw this little tidbit (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    peace voter, CCSDem, MooseHB

    in the WSJ, a factoid I wasn't aware of previously:

    Mr. Childers won the April 22 special election against Mr. Davis, 49% to 46%, but he needed 50% of the vote to declare victory, necessitating Tuesday's runoff election.

    That the Dem has already beaten the Rep once in this campaign has to be a good sign.  That he gets to run without party identification in a solidly GOP district also helps.

    I got no solid information, but there are definitely reasons to be optimistic here.

  •  That quoted section sounds like... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CCSDem, MooseHB

    A Dem troll on RedState.  Can't say I'm sorry to see that, after their own infiltrators come here.  Anyways, I think it does say something that the Republicans haven't released polling numbers for the race in quite some time.  You'd think that if they had a lead, they would trumpet it.

    And I agree, GOTV efforts are key now.  Is there any word about things happening in the background, i.e., efforts by Obama surrogates to get out the vote in areas where he performed well during the MS primary?  I'd be interested to see if there are subtle coattail effects in the district for Obama.  Childers had to dissociate himself with Obama (merely because he hadn't met Obama yet and he was being associated with Pastor Wright) which is understandable, but I would love to hear in the aftermath that there was an effort by the Obama campaign to help GOTV in addition to the DCCC's efforts to help out.

    Could this be a second template of how House races may go this year.  In IL-14, in addition to the DCCC helping out Foster, Obama played a not so insignificant role in GOTV and organizing with his formidable ground game.  Here, in a district that may or may not be too friendly to Obama, it's mostly the DCCC that has helped.

    If we can show that we can win a House seat whether Obama is directly involved or just the DCCC is involved, that will go a long way to allaying many remaining fears about Obama's effect on downticket contests.  I never thought this was an issue but I'm not a superdelegate.

    ... false hope. But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope. Obama 2008

    by BasharH on Tue May 13, 2008 at 07:21:19 AM PDT

    •  there are no (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BasharH, MooseHB

      "areas where he (Obama) performed well" in the district.  It is the tail end of Appalachia and, inexplicably (gerrymanderingly) the white flight suburbs of Memphis.  An appearance by Obama here would be detrimental, in fact, the Repub ran ads with Obama's face to scare us about the SCARY SCARY LIBRULS.

      However, pocketbook issues may finally do the trick here.  Yes, that's right, we may get suburban middle class and rural poor whites to vote their economic interests and elect a Democrat in northeast MS.

      Never thought I'd live to see it.

      "Any single man must judge for himself whether circumstances warrant obedience or resistance to the commands of the civil magistrate" John Locke

      by TheGryphon on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:19:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  If you voted here /how was it? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    peace voter
    •  Just Voted (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      peace voter

      I voted in Tupelo, Lee County. The clerk told me that the turnout looks like it's going to be right about the same (when you add in absentee ballots) as it was 3 weeks ago. Although she said that absentee ballots were about 3x what they were last time. Does anyone have any idea what that could imply?

      Your comments are being interpreted in a manner consistent with the powers of the Unitary Kossack

      by taricha on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:13:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Already won. Even if (4+ / 0-)

    the R's squeak out a win. They had to spend a lot of money they can't afford to defend a heavily red district. That will mean one or more Dem wins somewhere else. Hope Rahm is suitably embarrassed for doubting Dean's 50 State Strategy.

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