Obama has enormous lead in new OR poll

A new Oregon poll conducted by the Portland Tribune shows Obama with a massive lead.

    According to a new poll from the Portland Tribune and KPTV, the Illinois Democrat holds a 20 point lead over Clinton 55 percent to 35 percent.

The Portland Tribune/KPTV News 12 poll found that Obama leads even among women voters, thought to be Clinton's strength, said Tim Hibbitts. The poll queried 400 motivated Democratic voters. It has a margin of error of 4.8 percent.

http://www.oregonlive.com/...

    My prediction is that Obama will even sweep Clinton with blue-collar white voters in Oregon.  The pundits, as usual, won't discuss the influence of regionalism in the contest, but will illogically assume that white blue collar voters think the same way in Oregon as they do in Appalachia and just sort of wake up one day supporting Hillary and another day supporting Barack.

    In any case, the current trend is that Obama's lead seems to be expanding, and this is welcome news for Obama fans.  Could this be a 20-point plus win for Obama?  It's certainly plausible, given his huge level of support in the Western states.

P.S.  Just so everyone knows, I was born in Salem and have lots of family in Oregon.  :)

•  tips/recs

  by ObamaManiac2008 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:50:31 AM PDT

  •  Haven't most people already voted in OR?

    Don't they do vote-by-mail?  Or am I thinking of a different state?  (Meaning, no "WV bump" for HRC, if that would even be possible).

    Either way, that would be a good margin.

    by jenesq on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:52:10 AM PDT

    •  They do. Ballots mailed out around May 2

      They were getting their ballots right before NC and IN.  

      They are voting now.  

      by 57andFemale on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:53:07 AM PDT

    •  SUSA says 40% have voted (that was as of

      a couple days ago, so we shall see)

      by ObamaManiac2008 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:53:50 AM PDT

      •  Are you serious? Then it is over.

        by Engine 08 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:54:32 AM PDT

        •  On OPB last night,

          I heard that about 18% of ballots had been received.

          by lorzie on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:17:30 PM PDT

          •  That makes more sense. Thanks

            by Engine 08 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:15:16 PM PDT

    •  Paper this morning said 18% had turned in

      their ballots.  We are all vote-by-mail.  Ballots started hitting the mailboxes on 5/2.

      by Molly M on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:54:12 AM PDT

      •  Actually over 271,000 people had voted as of Mon

        by True Independent on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:55:38 AM PDT

        •  Wow, cool. Is that from the Oregon state

          website?

          by ObamaManiac2008 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:12:57 PM PDT

          •  It was reported by a newspaper in Oregon

            I believe based on what the state agency told them, reporting the number of mailed-in ballots received.

            by True Independent on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:34:14 PM PDT

      •  That is correct

        You (anyone actually - lol) can look at OR-SoS's PDF here.

        Today's results (new ballot totals) should be updated between 5-6pm PST.

        by Terre on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:59:04 AM PDT

        •  Good link! eom

          by DesertCat on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:40:36 PM PDT

    •  Yup. Check Poblano's post

      As of yesterday, the state had already received 360,219 ballots. We don't know precisely how many of those are Republican ballots and how many are Democratic ballots, but I'd guess that over half of them are Democratic ballots; perhaps somewhere in the 200,000 range. That's out of about 800,000 registered Democrats in the state, and total turnout that should fall somewhere in the range of 600,000. And these are only the ballots that have been received; ballots are coming in at a rate of about 80,000 per day. Oregonians can't afford to procrastinate, by the way, because a ballot must be received by election day -- the postmark doesn't matter (although there are special drop-boxes available on election day itself).

      http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/...

      by Fairy Tale on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:56:36 AM PDT

      •  Given the trends, at least 70% of those ballots

        would likely be Democratic, probably more.

        by ObamaManiac2008 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:14:44 PM PDT

  •  Great comment below. I agree

    "The pundits, as usual, won't discuss the influence of regionalism in the contest, but will illogically assume that white blue collar voters think the same way in Oregon as they do in Appalachia and just sort of wake up one day supporting Hillary and another day supporting Barack".

    Yes! I think "regionalism", is equally as important ans "demographics" (sometimes both), but the media refuses to discuss it, in it's proper context.

    I guess race, makes for better hotlines!

    by Excelscior1 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:09:39 PM PDT

  •  post a phonebanking link

    Let's seal the deal together.

    by soms on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:23:21 PM PDT

•  Oregon is 98.7 percent African American

  that's the only explanation I have for these poll numbers.

  Terry McAuliffe and Mark Penn forced me to say this.

  by davefromqueens on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:51:49 AM PDT

  •  Yes and they are also

    346% latte sipping liberals who live in the country with all of their limousines.

    by ObamaManiac2008 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:52:38 AM PDT

    •  Drive Prius's

      by egarratt on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:54:45 AM PDT

      •  They drive the car owned by Prius?

        by fizziks on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:55:49 AM PDT

        •  A minimalist's apostrophic rant?

          by trivium on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:57:17 AM PDT

        •  so what should it be?

          I guess Prii.

          Hey, while we're on the subject, Prius, Honda Civic hybrid, something else? Recommendations, anyone? Would a Mini Cooper do? What's a good cut-off for mpg that I shouldn't go below?

          by Shahryar on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:15:26 PM PDT

          •  Don't go with the Mini

            They aren't as safe and they won't last anywhere near as long as a Honda or Toyota.

            About six years ago my dad was choosing between the Prius and the Civic Hybrid.  He went with the Civic because it has more trunk space and he found the Prius to have too much road noise.  That is $.02 from 2002.  However, both cars have been redesigned since, with the Civic changing completely.

            BTW I am the proud owner of a 13 year old Honda Civic that is still kicking and gets up to 38-39 MPGs on the highway in good conditions.  It is my baby.

            PS.  Proper plural:  Priuses.  

            by fizziks on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:48:08 PM PDT

          •  **My friend has a mini, and it's breaking

            down ALL the time.  Good gas mileage when it's running though.

            by greylox on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:20:23 PM PDT

      •  Lots of Volvos too!

        by Molly M on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:56:44 AM PDT

        •  Don't talk to me about Volvos

          My '92 just died with only about 250k miles on it.

          by accumbens on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:04:57 PM PDT

          •  Volvos! pah!

            250k is a lot though...but it IS true that Volvos seem to need to go into the shop often.

            Oh, sorry...you told me not to talk to you about them!

            by Shahryar on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:16:43 PM PDT

        •  Too many

          Subaru Outbacks with Thule coffins on top.

          by lorzie on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:20:03 PM PDT

      •  both priuses and limousines

        My limo driver picks me up and drives me to my Prius.

        by davefromqueens on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:41:03 PM PDT

    •  We don't count hard working Americans.....

      with Pacific sea breezes?  

      I get so confused with all these metrics changing.....

      By the way, median income in OR:  about 43,000.  Not exactly a bastion of millionaires.  

      An important state for us.  Phonebank, people.  

      by 57andFemale on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:54:46 AM PDT

      •  According to the Clinton campaign

        No one on the West Coast works very hard.

        by Dartagnan on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:00:24 PM PDT

    •  The limos are hybrids n/t

      by lorzie on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:18:57 PM PDT

  •  Good Point, so it not count "snark'. The Clintons

    never cease to amuse me.

    by Engine 08 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:54:01 AM PDT

    •  You meant "never cease to abuse me," right?

      by trivium on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:00:41 PM PDT

  •  Aren't we all African-Americans?

    Isn't just a matter of how recently our ancestors came out of Africa?

    by FischFry on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:54:50 AM PDT

    •  That's elitist thinking, FischFry.

      by Marinesquire on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:01:19 PM PDT

    •  Beautiful! :D eom

      by orangeuglad on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:03:28 PM PDT

•  Amazing these guys make six figure salaries

  and can't do basic research or reporting.  

  by 57andFemale on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:52:21 AM PDT

•  I would have voted 20+

  but I don't want to get too excited by my own out of my you-know-where prediction.

  Can't wait till Tuesday so we can stop hearing about WV.

  by Terre on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:55:19 AM PDT

  •  From up here in WA

    headed down there this weekend, I voted in the 16-20% range. There are many people in Oregon who will vote for Clinton because they want to, not out of ignorance but out of loyalty and genuine support for her candidacy.

    However, there are many more people who will vote for Obama out of appreciation for his agenda and his honesty, and others who will vote against Clinton because of the way her campaign has been run.

    The greatest danger in Oregon is that people may not vote because they perceive the race to already be over. Hence my weekend trip.

    by Saska on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:57:32 AM PDT

    •  My guess is that 35-40% have already

      mailed in ballots.  

      by IhateBush on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:58:56 AM PDT

      •  I think you're on point with that guess.

        But I also think that (given the estimate that 50% of those early ballots are for Clinton) the Clinton voters feel more urgency to vote for their candidate.

        by Saska on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:00:50 PM PDT

        •  Where did you get the estimate that 50 % of the

          early ballots were for Clinton ? Obama has always led in the polls, so I am not sure where you came up with that number.

          by Earl3 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:12:12 PM PDT

          •  SUSA early returns

            Here.

            by Saska on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:26:50 PM PDT

            •  I don't trust SUSA on early votes

              they were wrong in Texas and Indiana for two.

              by IhateBush on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:30:37 PM PDT

              •  The question was where I got the number.

                That's the answer. :)

                At this point they're all we have to go on.

                by Saska on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:31:37 PM PDT

            •  Sorry nope

              basically impossible - he has been ahead there for months

              by newdem1960 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:52:05 PM PDT

      •  Yeah I would agree. 270,000 out of about

        650,000 total ballots I would say.

        by ObamaManiac2008 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:16:16 PM PDT

    •  With the prospect of putting Obama over

      the top, I think lots of Oregonians will be very motivated to vote.  Oregon sometimes feels overshadowed by California (obviously) and Washington, so I think we've take full advantage of our unique position this year.  The last time our primary counted was in 1968 when McCarthy beat RFK.

      by Molly M on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:01:24 PM PDT

    •  Oh, we are going to vote...

      Remember we also to get to pick a Senatorial candidate too!  Merkley vs. Novick is a hot topic, plus! we also get to vote for a new mayor. It's more than a presidential candidate. As an FYI, Gordon Smith just voted no to remove that sneaky Graham amendment. Once again, party first. And I don't know one person who is   voting for Clinton.

      by dancerat on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:07:42 PM PDT

•  This poll has the biggest gap (20 points)

  of any so far.  But Tim Hibbetts is local and should know what he's doing.

  by Molly M on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:55:57 AM PDT

  •  I'm skeptical.

    As much as I want to believe this, I think 11-15 is more likely. But, hey, I'd love to be wrong!

    It sure is something to see with all the Obama signs and bumper stickers all over here in Oregon, with hardly a Hillary sign or sticker seen.

    by StrangeAnimals on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:57:50 AM PDT

•  Game. . . Set. . .

  Oregon!

  by IndyScott on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:58:04 AM PDT

•  Who needs Oregon?

  Everybody knows that the soul of America and the future of the Democratic party is in the rapidly emptying backwoods and decaying factories of West Virginia, central Pennsylvania, and northern Ohio.

  Duh.

  by fizziks on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:58:36 AM PDT

  •  Don't be snide about those states.

    Seriously. This is a union. Yes, those areas may not have gone Obama, but that's no reason to write them off as if they were not important. There are a lot of minds there that need to be changed, for sure, and I have heard some disgusting things coming from voters in those states that are rooted in racialized thinking... but that just means there is work to be done.

    by mrfletcher on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:02:45 PM PDT

    •  I wasn't writing them off

      I was mocking Clinton's ridiculous arguments.

      by fizziks on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:06:48 PM PDT

•  I hope this is true...

  I don't want an IN to happen to us... knock on wood!

  Come on Oregon!

  by sillycilla on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:58:55 AM PDT

•  But Clinton leads among over 65 year-old

  white women with no college degree who live on streets named after trees and drive blue cars - and there's NO WAY Obama can win the general election without them!

  by Marinesquire on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:00:06 PM PDT

•  Isn't OR a snooty, latte-drinking state?

  There is no blue collar industry up there, right? No timber industry, no trucking industry, no agriculture, no fishing... it's just a state full of Starbucks and effete bookstores, right?

  by mrfletcher on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:00:20 PM PDT

  •  Hope Obama does well with

    Oregon's Latte-in' American demographic.

    by trivium on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:02:58 PM PDT

  •  lol. Nice point. Obama will probably win

    the rural counties bigtime as he did in Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, Wisconsin, etc.

    by ObamaManiac2008 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:17:11 PM PDT

  •  well, no more fishing this year

    what with the salmon in a state of collapse. but there used to be.

    by wu ming on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:01:48 PM PDT

•  How does election night work?

  Will there be a "winner" come 11 p.m. eastern time?

  Whatever the case, it'll be a little bit of a blow for Obama that Kentucky comes in hours and hours before his next win is declared. The only consolation is that he'll do 5-10 points better than he did in West Virginia (thanks to Lexington and Louisville) and dippy network announcers will mull over how much he's "come back."

  by daveweigel on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:01:08 PM PDT

•  Did anyone else notice

  that Bush's approval rating is 11% in this poll? I realize that this is Dems only but that number is still ridiculous...

  by seesmithrun on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:01:37 PM PDT

  •  11%? How can Bush still be polling that well?

    by trivium on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:04:57 PM PDT

  •  11% is where it should be and not that silly 30%

    by ZenMaster Coltrane on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:13:26 PM PDT

  •  that makes sense if it's Dems

    assuming his popularity is 30% that would mean 60% of Republicans like him and Independents would be somewhere in the 20s. 11% is about right (well...too high, actually but believable).

    by Shahryar on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:20:20 PM PDT

•  Anyone know what the voting breakdown is on

  returned ballots? (pdf)

  May 4 - 2,842
  May 5 - 19,186
  May 6 - 63,164
  May 7 - 52,043
  May 8 - 62,504
  May 11 - 71,749
  May 12 - 88,731
  May 13 -
  May 14 -
  May 15 -
  May 18 -
  May 19 -
  May 20 -

  Total through May 12 - 360,219 returned.

  Looks to me like another 500K to 600K ballots will be coming in.  The issue is what is the Dem/Rep breakdown.  If it's 2:1, Dem turnout looks like it'll be in the 600K range.  There has to be data somewhere on this, even someone with access to the Oregan VAN.  Anyone?

  Btw, 600K votes, Obama by 15% = 90K votes.

  by PocketNines on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:02:13 PM PDT

  •  Wow thanks for that! By the way, does your

    screen name refer to poker?  Because I won a huge hand onetime with pocket nines.  :)  Are you a Phil Hellmuth fan?

    by ObamaManiac2008 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:17:55 PM PDT

    •  Yes, poker, and no it has nothing to do with PH

      He bores me.

      by PocketNines on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:45:27 PM PDT

      •  Cool. My favorite is Allen Cunningham.

        Who's your favorite?

        by ObamaManiac2008 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 06:04:20 PM PDT

  •  In Oregon, it would probably be 3:1 Dem, possibly

    more.  At least that's the way it was in NC.

    by ObamaManiac2008 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:19:05 PM PDT

    •  I think it'll be more Republican ballots than NC

      Simply due to the mail factor.  Low threshold of reply.  Still expect a wide disparity and very high Dem "turnout," but making time to take a trip to the polls is different than one second filling in an oval and licking a stamp.

      I expect in the neighborhood of 650K in Oregon for Dems.

      (150K in Montana and 100K in South Dakota).

      Aggregate prediction - Obama gains 140K votes, 47-36 in pledged delegates.

      by PocketNines on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:02:36 PM PDT

      •  Yep 650K was my projection as well, it might

        even be higher than that - Oregon has ridiculously high turnout for primaries.

        by ObamaManiac2008 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 06:03:27 PM PDT

        •  Hard to go higher.

          871,922 is the cap.  That's how many Dems had registered by the deadline.

          Oregon will be very high, and will certainly break PA's record of 55% turnout in a closed primary due to mail-in voting.  Our shared speculation number is 74.6% turnout, just for point of reference.

          by PocketNines on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:37:23 PM PDT

          •  I'm gonna push my prediction to 80% turnout. :)

            by ObamaManiac2008 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:51:04 PM PDT

            •  You are a god damn maniac.

              by PocketNines on Thu May 15, 2008 at 12:14:34 AM PDT

              •  Yes, guilty as charged.

                But aren't we both?  :)

                by ObamaManiac2008 on Thu May 15, 2008 at 12:24:25 AM PDT

                •  I am a dignified maniac.

                  My mania has rules, more like bowling, less like 'Nam.

                  by PocketNines on Thu May 15, 2008 at 06:25:01 AM PDT

  •  that's odd...May 11??

    that was Sunday. There's no number for Friday or Saturday. I'm sure it's right, just wondering what it refers to. Nobody worked Friday? None were received? And Sunday...people came in? Clearly it's not mail delivery.

    I'm trying to figure out when mine was received if I mailed it Friday, the 9th. And again, weird, the dates listed show this Friday and Saturday missing again.

    by Shahryar on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:23:48 PM PDT

    •  I know. It's weird. That have May 18 too.

      And no May 9 or May 16.  Don't ask me.  I know nothing.

      by PocketNines on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:46:19 PM PDT

•  I hope that

  Oregon handles counting better than Gary,Indiana did on these mail ballots. Since they have much experience dealing with this process, I presume they will and when the polls close, they will already be counted.

  I am hopeful for a big Obama win..and greedy enough to want the cable shows to be able to call it about 1 minute after the polls close so the party can ensue. I am counting on Oregon to put Obama over the top in elected delegates and in my home that is when the victory party begins...don't let me down,Oregon!!!

  I luvvvvv oregon.

  by Hawkjt on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:07:54 PM PDT

  •  Not an excuse for Lake County...

    1. Lake County (whose Democratic chair is in fact mayor of Gary) counted the ballots, not the City of Gary.  This is an important distinction, since the Republican county chair was present at the counting as well to make sure the Democrats don't steal it without his permission.

    2.  The ballots in question were absentee ballots, not mail-in ballots.  About 11,000 of them came in.  Indiana does not have mail-in ballots in the same sense that Oregon has them.

    3.  The counting went at a pace similar to that seen in other areas.  WJOB radio was broadcasting partial, unofficial results as early as 8:30 pm CT, 2.5 hours after the polls closed.  

    4.  The release of the numbers was delayed, quite possibly by the Democratic Chair.  For some reason the Republican Chair, Mr. John Curley didn't make the stink that he should have.  

    Note:  The Republican chair's name is really John Curley.  The Stooge's name was Curly, no e.

    3.  

    by Yamaneko2 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:25:00 PM PDT

    •  Yea, I know it

      was sloppy on my part to indicate it was a Gary,In. issue. And the absentee ballot not write in.. just want quicker results in Oregon for all the east coast folks.

      by Hawkjt on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:47:07 PM PDT

  •  Orebama's been all or largely vote-by-mail

    for 10 years, without a whiff of fraud or screwups (knock wood) -- the only alarms are from right wing bloviators wooga-woogying about the possibility of fraud and the huge number of potential illegal aliens voting.

    Many Obama signs, only a few Hillary signs.  I've gotten two Obama GOTV calls, but expect few more, as my ballot gets to the Elections Clerk.

    OT:  There are still a fair number of Kerry/Edwards bumperstickers (mine came off in 2007), and even a few blue-black W2004 bumperstickers.  Go figger!

    by MaryCh on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:25:10 PM PDT

•  Mail

  I guess we wont get any exit polls since this is voters by mail..

  Also , will the vote come in the usuall way on TV?

  by BlueStateLiberal on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:22:23 PM PDT

•  Heading to Eastern Oregon on Monday

  to help with Obama GOTV. Or I guess it's MITB (mail in the ballot).

  In any case, I'm looking forward to it!

  These numbers are great!

  by Red State Rebel on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:27:00 PM PDT

  •  At that point: Drop off ballot

    Since the ballots have to be in on the 20th (not just postmarked) you will need to be encouraging people to put them in the drop-in boxes that are present in the communities (usually at libraries, etc.)  The Obama squad will have an info sheet for your community that tells where those drop boxes are.

    One thing I found surprising when doing GOTV for Obama last week is that you can be the delivery person for a voter's sealed ballot (i.e. you take it to the dropbox for them).  It made me uncomfortable to have that responsibility and I could see the potential for problems with that (i.e. person doesn't deliver it like they say they will).  The biggest benefit is that you could deliver the ballot of someone who has mobility problems.

    Thanks for helping with GOTV!

    by DesertCat on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:36:35 PM PDT

    •  Thanks for the clarification.

      Parts of Eastern Oregon is just getting organized for Obama. A meeting was held last night at Treasure Valley CC in Ontario, by the Idaho border. I'm sure the team will have all the up-to-date info next week.

      Yes, Oregon is putting a lot of trust in people for this process, but it seems to work well - and we in Idaho are envious. :)

      by Red State Rebel on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:22:51 PM PDT

•  results

  I heard it takes them a couple days to count all the votes and it is likely that the vote counts will be rolling out within a couple days after that tuesday.

  by boomersun on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:31:49 PM PDT

  •  But they will have enough counted that night

    That they can call all the CDs and state, unless one is super-close.  There'll be 80-90% reporting by poll closing.

    by PocketNines on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:47:52 PM PDT

•  HUGE margin of error! n/t

  by EB4Dean on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:37:13 PM PDT

•  I think one can extrapolate

  based upon votes they've counted Tuesday night. My prediction is roughly 62/38; it definitely won't be close at all.

  by newdem1960 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:57:15 PM PDT

•  oregon will follow the rest of the northwest

  and break hard for obama. as will montana. the clintons are not well loved out there.

  by wu ming on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:03:42 PM PDT