The End of Goalposts: 340 + 367/394 Superdelegates

We all know this thing is over (well, almost all of us), but I'd thought I'd do one final magic number diary before the end, reflecting the final resting place of the goalposts. 2,209 Delegates.  

In short, there are four more hurdles Obama has to clear before he undeniably (even in the Clinton universe) is the nominee. And we all know what they are. When he clears in parenthesis. There are five scenarios.

1. MAJ of Pledged Delegates (no MI/FL) = 1,627 (3,253 Tot) (5/20)

2. MAJ of Pledged Delegates (w/ MI/FL) = 1,783.5 (3,566 Tot) (5/31 or 6/1)

3. MAJ of all Delegates (no MI/FL) = 2,025 (4,049 Tot) (5/31 or 6/1)

4. MAJ of all Delegates (w/ MI/FL) = 2,209 (4,417 Tot) (6/3)

5. MAJ of all Delegates (w/ MI/FL counting half) = 2,116.5 (4,233) (6/3)

The first one will be a done deal on 5/20, the second and third on June 1st or May 31 (if there is a MI/FL deal announced). With a MI/FL deal in place and the Superdelegate stream continuing Obama will surpass 2,209 on June 3rd. And then give one HELL of a speech.  

# of Supers Obama needs to clear the last two hurdles =  340 and 394. More details below the jump.

I'll go through the final 4 hurdles, and the five scenarios one by one.

Obama's current totals: Pledged = 1,599.5; Supers: 285.5; Total = 1,885
(EDIT: Updated to reflect the mornings SD's)

1. Majority of Pledged Delegates (no MI/FL) = 1,627

Needs = 27.5 pledged delegates. He has 1,599.5.
Clears the Hurdle on: May 20th. Needs 27.5 of 103 pledged available.

With 103 pledged delegates at stake on 5/20 in Kentucky and Oregon, Obama will pass this on easily (likely from Oregon alone). There is NO doubt, even if he gets clobbered in KY, he'll get 26+ out of Oregon, and he'll only need 2 from KY to put him over the top. Even getting clobbered, he gets that easy.
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2. Majority of Pledged Delegates (w/ MI/FL) = 1,783.5

Needs 62 pledged delegates. Obama has 1,721.5 w/ MI and FL included.
Clears the Hurdle on: June 1st: Puerto Rico. Needs 62 of 158 available.

Obama got 67 pledged delegates out of Florida, and there are 55 "uncommitted" delegates out of Michigan. At worst, there is no way Obama doesn't get those 55 and 67 (if not more) under any settlement to count those "primaries." Add the 122 to his total of 1,599.5 = 1,721.5

Yes, he'll probably get clobbered in KY, and PR, but even giving Clinton 2/3 of all those delegates, or a bit more (KY 31-20, PR 34-21), Obama still nets 41 delegates and only needs 21 of Oregon's 52 to put him over the top. Memo: Obama will win Oregon (at least 27 delegates). So this one is going to be cleared on June 1st.

And by the way, counting an election with only one name on the ballot is democracy Stalin and Saddam would be proud of. Look, Saddam got 100% of the vote again! But I digress....
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3. Majority of Total Delegates (no MI/FL) = 2,025

(EDIT: updated to reflect this mornings SD's at 285.5)

Obama has: 1,885 Obama needs: 140 total delegates.
Clears the Hurdle on: June 1st: 49 PD's via 5/20 + 5 SD's/day(90) + PR(21)
Magic Number of SD's to get him there = 339.5/340 (Current Tot 285.5 + 54)

OK, these are trickier because one has to estimate how many pledged delegates Obama will get, and I'm not Poblano or PocketNines, but I'll give it a shot.

Five Contests left: Let's go fairly conservative for Obama:

1. Oregon: 52 Pledged; 55-45 Obama; Delegates 29-23 Obama

2. Kentucky: 51 Pledged; 70-30 Clinton; Delegates 31-20 Hillary

3. Puerto Rico: 55 Pledged; 67-33 Clinton; Delegates 34-21 Hillary

4. Montana: 16 Pledged; 55-45 Obama; Delegates 9-7 Obama

5. South Dakota: 15 Pledged; 55-45 Obama; Delegates 8-7 Obama

Total Estimated Pledged for Obama = 86
Supers needed to clinch = 54

He's been getting about five per day. If it keeps up, supers could give him the nomination before June 1st. I estimate he'll net 49 pledged through the 5/20 primaries, and 5 per day for the rest of May (18 x 5) gives him 90. Which would put him three short going into PR.

Even if the Super delegate trickle slows, PR should still put him over the top, or Montana and South Dakota will. My bet is the Super's go even faster, especially after Oregon, but I'll hold off and say June 1st.

Obama has 285.5 supers right now. Add 54 and one gets 339.5. If he wants to clinch on June 1st, he'll have to have another 16 (355.5), or else wait until June 3rd. Regardless, I say 339.5 is the magic number.

EDIT: Actually its 340 since the last 1/2 voting super from Dem's Abroad pledged today.
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4. Majority of Total Delegates Including MI and FL = 2,208.5

EDIT: numbers changed to include the 1.5 supers this morning.

Obama has = 2,014 (1,599.5 + 285.5 + 122 (67/55 MI/FL) + 7 MI/FL SD's)
Obama needs = 194.5 Total Delegates.
Clears Hurdle On: June 3rd
Magic # of Super D's to get him there = 394 (Current Tot 285.5 + 108.5)

What he has includes his current total of pledged delegates (1,599.5) + his current supers (285.5) plus the 122 minimum pledged out of MI/FL (67+55) plus his 7 Super Delegates from those states. That yields 2,014.

Obama needs 194.5 total delegates. Going through my non-scientific delegate estimate above, I think he'll get around 86 pledged delegates from the remaining primaries, so he'll need 110 more super delegates.

Estimated Pledged from here on: 86
Needed Supers to clear hurdle = 108.5

Again, at the current pace of about 5 per day, that would give him 110 supers by June 4th (22 x 5 = 110). I'll project a plus 5 increase (one extra day) before the third, that way, it will make it sweeter as he clinches on an election night (the last one), and pledged delegates and a two state win put him over the top.
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(EDIT: this scenario added after reading comments and this morning's SD's)

5. MAJ of All Delegates with MI/FL Counting Half = 2,116.5

Obama has = 1,949.5 (1,885 + 64.5)
Obama Needs = 167 More Delegates
Obama Clears Hurdle on = June 3rd
Magic Number of Supers to Clear = 366.5/367 (Current Tot 285.5 + 81)

Though, it would also depend on if the Supers From those states count, count half, or don't count at all. It really won't change the metric too much in any case, but I've penalized them at 1/2 also. I really can't accept them receiving LESS of a punishment than the pledged delegations, as they caused this mess in the first place.

MI/FL = 368 Total Dels (313 Pledged + 55 Supers)
If each count 1/2 = 184 + 4,049 = 4,233
MAJ w/ 1/2 MI/FL = 2,116.5

Obama currently has 1,885 (including this mornings 285.5) delegates. He currently has 129 out of FL/MI (67 Pledged out of FL, 55 "uncommitted" from MI, and 7 supers). Cut that in half for 64.5. Add together for 1,949.5, 167 short of the needed 2,116.5.

Per the above calculations, Obama nets 86 Pledged in the remaining primaries (49 on 5/20, 20 on 6/1, and 17 on 6/3). Leaving him 81 short. At the rate he's been collecting supers (5/day), he'll get that by the end of May (18 x 5 = 90), though he won't net the additional 37 he'll collect in the June primaries (approx. 37) at that pace. Though I think SD's will declare a bit faster after Oregon, I'll hold off and say it is a June 3rd over the top night.
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To sum up, I think Obama will clinch the thing before voting ends, or, at the latest, the night voting ends on June 3rd. There will be no post election superdelegate convention nor a fight to or at the convention.

The pledged delegate totals are fairly predictable w/in a certain window, and it all depends on the timing of the Superdelegate announcements.

If Hillary and team Clinton continue to bash, then the pace might increase, if she continues to campaign in a Huckabean fashion, then I think letting the thing go to June 3rd isn't a bad thing at all.

Hopefully, both candidates will train their guns on John McCain, which will allow Dems to erode his support in 2 major constituencies: 1) Reagan Democrats (Hillary's guns); 2) Independents and Moderate Republicans (Obama's guns); while simultaneously shoring and firing up the Dem base.  

I don't think Obama has 108.5 supers in his pocket right now, but I do think he has some. I think he'll continue to get them in a dribble over the next three weeks.

If they could plan it, June 3rd would be the perfect day for several reasons: 1) Pledged delegates will put him over the top, not supers; 2) He'll win both states that night, the only night the rest of the way where Hillary won't win at least one state; and 3) It will give some national spotlight to South Dakota and Montana and give us chance to expand the map in November. I think some sort of deal on MI/FL will be in place by then, so June 3rd will be the day.

Here's hoping it goes down that way.

It's late and if I screwed the math up, please let me know, but I'm off to bed.

•  Great diary

  Though I'm still not sure why everyone assumes Obama is going to get clobbered in PR. Most of the Puerto Ricans consider themselves Caribbean first and Latino second. You really can't compare them with, say, Southwestern Hispanics. While this certainly doesn't make Obama the favorite, it should be a lot closer than that (10-15 maybe? But then again, I won't even pretend as to having a clue about the baseline in that territory, but my gut just tells me it's way better than 2-1 Clinton). The only poll had Clinton up 14 or so, however, it's a month or so old and I have no clue regarding its reliability.

  by GermanAmericanDem on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:13:58 AM PDT

  •  Good point.

    I guess I was trying to be optimistic from the Clinton view on the results.

    You are absolutely right on PR.

    Different set of Latinos.

    by Searching for Pericles on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:47:41 AM PDT

•  I think you should include

  the magic number if FLA and MI are counted but with each delegate having half a vote in the convention. That's more realistic than your option 4, and I think the magic number is 2117 in this case, though I'm not sure.

  by Fairy Tale on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:31:23 AM PDT

•  This

  is a nice diary.
  Count me among the pessimists.
  I cannot but believe that when Hillary says I am in it to the end that is exactly what she intends.
  The end on the nominating process in the roll call of state delegations at the convention.
  Until then Hillary will be an active candidate for this nomination.
  She absolutely will not quit.  Even when Obama has reached the prerequisite number of delegates and the race has been called Hillary will still look for the metor to strike Obama, or to woo delagates to her campaign.  Anything & everything.
  She is taking the fight all the way to the convention.
  Bank on it.

  by paul94611 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:32:43 AM PDT

  •  She knows its over

    did you hear her victory speech today?

    The mention of Obama was about as close as I've seen to Hillary actually kissing butt on the news.

    The party has given her the word, "do what you have to do to salve your ego, but get OFF the nominee's case".

    And she did.

    by Deep Dark on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:33:37 AM PDT

•  Good

  diary.
  I must admit that I am a pessimist in all this.
  I believe that when Hillary says she is going to fight this until the end I take her at her word.
  The end of the nominating process is the roll call of state delegations at the convention.
  Until then Hillary will wait for the magic meteor to strike Obama, delegates to abandon Obama or sum such other hope.
  Until Obama secures the nomination at the convention Hillary is in the race to stay.

  by paul94611 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:37:32 AM PDT

•  Should have posted this earlier

  I think it would have been a good read for people, but it'll be buried by morning.

  Good on you for writing that, though.  Recommended for sure.

  by The Great Gatsby on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:53:07 AM PDT

  •  Drat! That was the "Final Five"

    You are correct. I'll edit the diary to include a fifth scenario.

    by Searching for Pericles on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:56:52 AM PDT