How Clinton could force her way onto the ticket as VP
Thu May 15, 2008 at 06:39:48 AM PDT
Did you know that, at the convention, not only is there a general roll call vote for delegates to elect their presidential nominee, but then there is also a separate roll call vote to elect the vice presidential nominee? A lot of people don't.
But you can bet the Clinton people know this. Even Mark Penn. And if she wants to be vice president, there's not really much that can be done to stop her. More after the jump.
This scenario was crystallized with an article on Real Clear Politics today. To sum it up, things go as projected and Obama wins the nomination by about 150 delegates. That gives Obama 54% of the convention delegates and Clinton 46%, which makes Hillary the closest second-place finisher in recent history. Her entire margin of defeat is equal to about 20% of the superdelegates at the convention.
So Obama selects Webb, Richardson, Sebalius, or anyone but Hillary to join his ticket before the convention. However, Hillary decides she wants to be VP and makes a concerted effort to win the nod. All she has to do is convince 20% of the superdelegates that an Obama-Clinton ticket is the best. ticket. EVAH. Combine that with the 1900 or so delegates she'll be bringing to the convention, and she'll have the VP slot. Webb, Richardson, or whoever will be what is technically known in the political world as S.O.L.
Here's a good excerpt from the article above that shows how hard it might be for people to say no to Hillary again:
Just consider for a moment the final phone call with Bill Clinton when the super delegate had to tell him he or she had decided to go with Obama. Clinton," It's time to make a decision. Hillary needs you and I need you. We've been through a lot together. When you needed me I was there, now we need you".
Super delegate, "Mr. President, this is the hardest thing I've ever had to do, but I'm going with Obama because (whatever). Ask me for anything else Mr. President, but I've got to do this". Clinton, "I'm very disappointed and personally hurt, but do what you think you have to do. So long."
Now imagine its June 4th and Clinton calls again. Clinton, "I know Obama has enough votes to win, but I wanted you to know Hillary has decided to run for vice president at the convention. You know there are two roll call votes at the convention: first president then for vice president. I know you are voting for Obama for president. Fine, but I want your commitment to vote for Hillary for vice president."
You imagine being on the floor in Denver. Hillary's delegates, NEARLY HALF THE DELEGATES, are demanding she be on the ticket. These are true believers who have stuck with Clinton through thick and thin. To them, putting Hillary on the ticket is a crusade.
Most Clinton delegates are women, most Democratic voters are women, and they're going to just accept some middle aged white governor that Obama is rumored to want? No way. They are in your face. Hillary supporters from back home are jamming your Blackberry. This and more horror scenes flash through your mind in a nano second.
Then it occurs to you; if the roles were reversed and Obama came close to winning and wanted to be the vice presidential candidate, could you imagine the convention saying no?
Remember, this doesn't have to be a convincing argument for all the superdelegates. It just has to convince 20% of them for the plan to work.
I don't know about you, but in her most recent speeches, she's starting to sound like someone who wants the V.P. slot. We all know what bringing the Clintons onto the ticket (note the plural) would mean. Obama may be too gracious to bring up Monica, Whitewater, and the rest of the 90's, but you can bet the Republicans won't be so gracious. Forget the talk about changing the electoral map - we would go back to the same 2004 style fight, where all the states are more or less decided except for Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. And can you imagine the campaign ads the GOP could make, with the goldmine of negative things the vice presidential candidate has said about the presidential candidate? "He's elitist". "He doesn't cross the commander-in-chief threshhold".
Like a lot of you, I'm totally against having Hillary on the ticket. But my question is: how can we stop it?
Permalink | 51 comments