House and Senate Roundup: Everything's Coming Up Democrat
by brownsox
Fri May 16, 2008 at 02:10:06 PM PDT
NM-Sen: As mcjoan wrote earlier, Democrat Tom Udall is kicking all kinds of ass in the Senate race. He has a monster lead, 25+ points, over both his Republican opponents, Heather "Nipplegate" Wilson and Steve Pearce.
Udall started the race with a wide lead, and as the race has carried on, it has only expanded. Pearce, and especially Wilson, were considered formidable opponents before the race began, but it is currently looking like a potential blowout reminiscent of Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar's crushing victory over Mark Kennedy in 2006.
Best of all, Pearce leads Wilson in the GOP primary. Pearce is the further-right candidate, so he cedes "moderate" ground to Udall. It's a bad break for Wilson, but look on the bright side; she'll have plenty of time to devote to keeping the airwaves safe from loose nipples.
ME-Sen: More splendid news; Democratic Rep. Tom Allen is slowly, but surely closing the gap in his Senate race against Susan Collins. The latest Rasmussen numbers:
Rasmussen. April numbers in parentheses.
Collins (R) 52 (54)
Allen (D) 42 (38)
Collins is one of the most popular Senators in the country, due to her "moderate" image. She represents the only hope for GOP candidates in the fall; to win by distancing themselves as much as possible from the national party. And even so, Allen is steadily gaining on her, and is within 10 points with plenty of race to go.
Say it with me; everything's coming up Democrat!
KS-Sen: And now for the most shocking poll of all, another Rasmussen poll: Incumbent Senator Pat Roberts leads Democratic challenger Jim Slattery by only 12 points. This is in a state where no Democrat has been elected to the Senate since (wait for it) 1932, and against a challenger who hasn't run for office since 1994.
Rasmussen. 5/13. MoE +/- 4%
Roberts (R) 52
Slattery (D) 40
There's a long way to go before November, and Slattery's already competitive. Having entered the race late, Slattery has yet to begin campaigning in earnest, though his fundraising is going very well. Roberts enjoys 60% approval according to the Rasmussen poll, and yet manages just 52% against Slattery.
These Rasmussen polls are just shocking.
WA-Gov: Rasmussen has one last piece of beautiful news: Washington's Democratic Governor Christine Gregoire, who won a narrow (and hotly contested) victory over Republican Dino Rossi in 2004, has opened up a double-digit lead in their rematch:
Rasmussen.5/12. MoE +/- 4%. 3/27 numbers in parentheses.
Gregoire (D) 52 (47)
Rossi (R) 41 (46)
That lead has gone from one point to 11 points in less than two months. Obama also enjoys a double-digit lead over McCain in the state.
NJ-Sen: Rep. Rob Andrews stands alone among New Jersey's Democratic establishment in thinking he'd make a better senator than incumbent Frank R. Lautenberg.
Andrews' colleague Frank Pallone has some particularly harsh words for him:
Seven members of Congress and the mayor of Trenton spoke at the press conference at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) headquarters, reaffirming their support for Lautenberg and repeating charges that Andrews touts the GOP line and therefore, is wrong for New Jersey.
"On too many occasions he (Andrews) sided with Bush and the Republicans," Rep. Frank Pallone Jr. of the 6th District said, later adding that he "often wondered" that if New Jersey didn’t lean Democratic, whether Andrews would change his party affiliation.
Meanwhile, Lautenberg's colleague Robert Menendez has the highest praise for him:
Menendez said Lautenberg has "taken on" special interests, opposed the war in Iraq, and voted in support of his own beliefs even when they weren’t politically popular.
"New Jersey needs a proven, effective progressive Democrat who consistently stands up to the Bush Republicans," Menendez said. "That Senator is Frank Lautenberg."
Here's a note to Andrews; it is pure folly to try and wage a primary challenge from the right, in a blue state, during a year which marks a Democratic ascendancy as this one does.
House Races
TN-09: Things look very bright for progressive Democratic incumbent Steve Cohen, as he has a 52-point lead over primary challenger Nikki Tinker.
Seems like there's something to be said for going to Washington and doing right by your district. Who knew?
KS-02: More primary polling here, as Republican Jim Ryun, legendary track star and former right-wing Representative, faces off against the moderate GOP candidate, former Kansas Treasurer Leeroy Lynn Jenkins.
Ryun not only has a huge 44-point lead, but his lead has actually expanded in the last year, despite Jenkins being fairly well-known in the district. I guess Jenkins is trying to keep her powder dry, but it may be time for her to start trying to take down Ryun.
Because incumbent Democratic Rep. Nancy Boyda defeated Ryun once already, and because Ryun, as the far-right candidate, presents the starkest contrast between himself and Boyda, I think it's probably best for us that Ryun win this primary. This is a tough district and Boyda will have a fight on her hands either way, but I certainly won't cry if Ryun emerges as the candidate.
KS-04: Alex Parker of the MTV Street Team has put together a nifty video featuring 30-year-old State Senator Donald Betts, now running for the U.S. House against incumbent Todd Tiahrt. Check it out.
As a state senator, Betts already has a considerable base of political support in Wichita. It's a decidedly uphill race for Betts against Tiahrt in a strongly Republican district, but the race is not hopeless; both Governor Kathleen Sebelius and former Democratic Attorney General Paul Morrison won the district in 2006.
IN-02: Businessman Luke Puckett, though backed by the NRCC, had quite a bit of trouble winning his primary...against a man who spoke at a neo-Nazi meeting earlier this year.
'04/'06 candidate Tony Zirkle (R) said he's "willing to talk to any group that invites him," and that's why he spoke to a weekend gathering in Chicago of the Amer. National Socialist Workers Party. The "occasion was a celebration" of the 119th anniversary of the birth of Adolf Hitler. Zirkle stood at a podium "in front of a larger-than-life portrait" of Hitler, "flanked" by an American flag and a Nazi flag.
During a 4/21 presser, Zirkle said he accepted the invitation to "spread his anti-pornography message." He said he's "misunderstood," and that his "real mission" is to "rid the country of pornography." To "punctuate his message," Zirkle "shredded an original copy" of a '69 Penthouse magazine.
But an "account of the gathering" says "Zirkle spoke on his history" as a state's atty in IN, "prosecuting Jewish and Zionist criminal gangs involved in trafficking prostitutes and pornography" from Russia.
Puckett lost to this Zirkle fellow in 5 of the district's 12 counties. Anyone want to take bets on how he performs against Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly?
Race tracker wiki: NM-Sen NJ-Sen ME-Sen KS-Sen WA-Gov IN-02 TN-09 KS-04 KS-02
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