Winning takes Hard work! (SUSA poll)

There is a new SUSA poll for Oregon. Barack has lost some ground.

It's now:

Obama 50% (-2)
Clinton 44% (+2)

So, his 10-point lead has been cut down to 6. Obviously, this poll was taken during this horrific week, in the middle of the Wrightmare, so I still think he will have a double-digit win there.
Looking at polls like this one is bound to be discouraging. But instead of despairing, I hope folks will resolve to put aside some time tomorrow to call folks in Indiana and North Carolina. I have promised myself that I will put aside at least an hour each day to do just that. Worrying isn't going to help Barack; but calling and cavassing will. Winning takes hard work!

•  Tip jar

  So... is someone going to remind that Barack has thing wrapped up already?

  And..um..Al Gore? Pretty please...won't you endorse Obama?

  by jenontheshore on Thu May 01, 2008 at 09:58:36 PM PDT

  •  I just fixed the diary

    I made a mistake. His lead three weeks ago was 10 points and is now 6. So he lost 2 points and Hillary gained 2 points.

    by jenontheshore on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:00:45 PM PDT

    •  Obama Rolls On

      Still, despite a series of trials that have put Mr. Obama on the defensive and illustrated the burdens he might carry in a fall campaign, the Obama campaign is rolling along, leaving Mrs. Clinton with dwindling options.

      Mr. Obama continues to pick up the support of superdelegates -- elected Democrats and party leaders -- at a quicker pace than Mrs. Clinton

      http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

      by valadon on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:44:57 PM PDT

•  He'll get Oregon

  by there will be blood on Thu May 01, 2008 at 09:58:43 PM PDT

  •  By double digits

    All Obama needs to do is park himself in Oregon for two weeks and he will win that state by 15%.

    Not worth spending too much time in West Virginia and Kentucky.  Those appalachia states can be quite racist.

    by Drdemocrat on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:03:57 PM PDT

    •  I think he needs to spend some time there

      there is no way he will win, but he needs to stop the bleeding.  The last thing he would want is for Hillary to run up the score in those states.

      Running up the score is how Barack got so far ahead in the first place, so letting her do that would be a bad idea.

      by smash artist on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:05:49 PM PDT

      •  I am actually less fearful in Oregon

        than I am in North Carolina.  

        Obama does well in Western states.

        by Drdemocrat on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:08:07 PM PDT

        •  He did well in N. California and in Washington

          So he should be just fine in OR.

          by Fozzie Bear on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:12:05 PM PDT

      •  Agreed

        Plus, with the right kind of spin, he can turn a 10-15 point loss in WV and/or KY into a win. And if he plays his cards right, he can make sure that Clinton doesn't gain much in terms of delegates from those states, even with a numerical win. Hopefully, none of this will be necessary, if Obama can sweep Indiana and North Carolina.

        by metal prophet on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:12:49 PM PDT

    •  Yep

      Those appalachia states can be quite racist.

      Yup. This is an understatement. I have been to West Virginia. There is no way Obama is going to get more than like 10 or 12 votes there.

      by jenontheshore on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:07:13 PM PDT

      •  ? nt

        by scardanelli on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:46:24 PM PDT

    •  Next week will determine ...

      ... how much time he has to spend in KY and WV. If he's solid out of IN and NC, then it'll be easier to stomach blowouts in KC and WV. But if he's a little shaky he'll need to play some defense there.

      Either way I suspect he'll campaign in all three states, and he'll obviously have a strong ground and air game everywhere. It's just a question of how much time he spends there himself.

      by Fozzie Bear on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:10:47 PM PDT

      •  Hope for the best...

        ...but prepare for a 10-point loss in Indiana and a tie in North Carolina.

        20 POINTS DOWN.

        by Jaiwithani on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:37:02 PM PDT

    •  Actually, I hope he does spend time in WV and KY.

      Not to the point of neglecting Oregon, but I think it's important for him to campaign everywhere, to show that he wants to be president of all 50 states.

      That may not pay off immediately in votes, but it will pay off long term, maybe in November and maybe in the way he's able to govern down the line. It's worth paying attention to the many, many people in those states who are willing to listen to him.

      by scardanelli on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:45:32 PM PDT

•  He's still leading at least

  That's somewhat encouraging. I have been feeling down all day but am feeling cautiously optimistic right now. Maybe I'm crazy.

  by democrattotheend on Thu May 01, 2008 at 09:58:49 PM PDT

  •  I've been very optimistic this past

    few days too. I feel the media crazies are the ones interested about talking about Wright, I get the sense people are sensing a media that wants to destroy Obama and they're going to react strongly against that. The racists in the media are funning at the mouth. America will reject their venomousness attacks being carried out by the Clinton sympathizers in the media.  

    by Voodoo king on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:38:39 PM PDT

•  Rec for resisting the urge to say BREAKING ! eom

  by wil5013 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 09:59:16 PM PDT

  •  lol

    I hate that. I think the only circumstances where "Breaking!" is applicable is if it's truly HUGE news.

    by jenontheshore on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:02:53 PM PDT

  •  'Breaking'

    is a thoroughly broken word on dkos.

    by scardanelli on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:47:24 PM PDT

•  Anyone know what the spreadsheet estimated?

  You know, the leaked spreadsheet from his campaign? How much did they estimate winning it by?

  by democrattotheend on Thu May 01, 2008 at 09:59:18 PM PDT

  •  Here it is

    Here is the famous spreadsheet, showing an Obama win of 52-47.

    by CA Pol Junkie on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:38:06 PM PDT

•  Oregon

  If we get there, Obama just needs to win it by any margin. He's going to get the stuffing kicked out of him in Kentucky, we're talking 2-to-1, but a win in Oregon sends the message that he can 1) win white voters post-Wright, and 2) beat McCain in another key swing state, which Oregon is and Kentucky is not.

  by MikeMinCT on Thu May 01, 2008 at 09:59:43 PM PDT

  •  Yeah, but Oregon is full of "latte liberals"

    And latte liberals don't count, remember?

    by democrattotheend on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:08:51 PM PDT

    •  Portland may be full of latte liberals

      Portland and the suburbs may be full of latte liberals - but the rest of the state is middle-class to dirt poor. Oregon is frequently referred to as the "Appalachia of the west"; I'm a sheltered Bay Area latte liberal myself and I was shocked at how poor parts of Oregon are. I know you were just snarking but people need to understand that Portland does not equal Oregon.

      A word after a word after a word is power. -- Margaret Atwood

      by tmo on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:01:55 PM PDT

      •  but Oregon Democrats

        are starbuck drinking, prius driving liberals.  The rural part of the state is republican.  

        by jhwvertigo on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:25:01 PM PDT

      •  Actually though, SUSA has shown Obama polling

        better in the rural areas.  And don't forget he absolutely crushed Hill in the rural Western states (so far).  Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, and Idaho weren't even close.

        by ObamaManiac2008 on Fri May 02, 2008 at 12:30:35 AM PDT

      •  Very true, I know from experience.

        I've lived up and down the Western half of Oregon and what you are saying is very true.

        I remember a large family who were friends with our family. My dad taught at the local public highschool and the other family lived on welfare and lived in a tent - literally. The dad was an ex-con with a 3rd grade education. The mom's education wasn't much higher.

        The most amazing thing about this poor family is that their middle son defied the odds, took advantage of inherently progressive tuition aid programs and ended up graduating for Oregon State University with a PhD in MicroBiology. Last I heard he was working for the National Institutes of Health.

        by Preemptive Karma on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:20:00 AM PDT

  •  "If"?

    We vote completely by mail here in Oregon, and the first ballots are being mailed out tomorrow.

    May 20 is when the votes are actually 'counted', but most of them will be cast long before then.

    Like, starting this weekend...

    by Hardhat Democrat on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:52:00 PM PDT

•  I think that Obama will take Oregon by double

  digits.

  My sister lives in Portland Oregon and she says there are NO Hillary signs any where.  It is all Obama.  I think that SUSA got it WRONG with their estimation of Portland going for Obama only 49 to 46.  I think that is way off.

  Portland is a city that is very much an anti-War, against the establishment, Whole Foods Market/Henry's Market/Farmer's Market type of town.

  There is NO WAY that city's vote for Clinton is that close.  

  by Drdemocrat on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:01:42 PM PDT

  •  I agree

    I can't imagine it being so close in Portland. I really, really can't.

    by jenontheshore on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:03:43 PM PDT

    •  I think that is why the SUSA poll is off

      in Oregon right now.  They are underestimating Obama's support in Porland.  

      In their poll they have Obama doing BETTER the more rural areas than the city of Portland which is not realistic.

      Obama wins Oregon by double digits easily.

      by Drdemocrat on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:06:55 PM PDT

      •  You're right

        In their poll they have Obama doing BETTER the more rural areas than the city of Portland which is not realistic.

        I just noticed that. This poll is definitely off.

        by jenontheshore on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:08:50 PM PDT

      •  Actually...

        ....I can see Obama doing well in rural Oregon. Rural Oregon is more like rural Idaho or rural Nevada, where Obama cleaned up. It's not really like rural Pennsylvania or rural Ohio, where he did poorly.

        by metal prophet on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:15:51 PM PDT

      •  No, they're not off.

        We're a closed primary state, and Obama is going to do much better in rural areas of Oregon than he will here in Portland.  That's what he's done everywhere so far...

        Obama will win the City of Portland with a majority, but he isn't going to carry off some massive crushing victory here.  Building unrealistic expectations isn't helping in any way.

        by Hardhat Democrat on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:09:25 PM PDT

  •  You know, I've seen this stated a lot...

    My sister lives in Portland Oregon and she says there are NO Hillary signs any where.

    ...but I have to ask if the people claiming this actually live in the same Portland that I do?

    I live in inner SE Portland, and I see at least a dozen Hillary signs within 10 blocks of my apartment, with a roughly comparable number of Obama signs.  Obama's going to do much better throughout the rest of the state than he will here in Portland.  You'd be surprised at the numbers of very left-leaning people I know here in the city who will be voting for Hillary.

    FWIW, I'm voting for Obama.  And yeah, we'll win Oregon...but don't make the same mistake youze all did in Pennsylvania, and try to build up unrealistic expectations.  That's how you're all going to turn an 8-point Obama win here in Oregon into a 'media loss'.

    by Hardhat Democrat on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:03:31 PM PDT

    •  I'm in SE Portland too, and I've hardly

      seen any Obama signs--mostly, I think, because whenever I've gone into the Obama headquarters to try to get one, they're  all out! The campaign really needs to do a better job of keeping them supplied--I bought the last t-shirt when I was there last week. I've seen a couple of homemade Obama signs around and was thinking of painting my own. Maybe I'll make a few extra and take them down to the HQ.

      by Wit Whither Wilt on Fri May 02, 2008 at 01:16:36 AM PDT

      •  Great idea, do it!

        I've seen a couple of homemade Obama signs around and was thinking of painting my own. Maybe I'll make a few extra and take them down to the HQ.

        That certainly couldn't hurt any...

        I've had no contact with the Obama campaign here, because I'm currently focused on helping out the Sam Adams and Jeff Merkley campaigns; as I always tend to keep my political volunteer work focused on local and state races...but I've definitely heard that they're really busy up there at Obama's Portland HQ, and walking home about an hour ago I noticed that they must have been either canvassing or doing a lit drop earlier today along SE 39th between Division and Powell judging from the flyers left in / on people's doors.

        by Hardhat Democrat on Fri May 02, 2008 at 06:41:54 PM PDT

•  Anecdotal ...

  A friend was chatting with a college student from Oregon and asked about who the students were going for.  It was mostly Obama, but I guess Chelsea spent a LOT of time there and some students were responding to that.

  by marypickford on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:05:03 PM PDT

•  but Oregon is already voting isn't it?

  and it's 100% mail-in ballots?

  by reformerdc on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:05:54 PM PDT

  •  Ballots out tomorrow

    Ballots will be mailed out tomorrow.

    by skywaker9 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:12:29 PM PDT

•  Not good for him. A NH poll raises some questions

  http://rasmussenreports.com/...

  It's a GE poll. Clinton does slightly better, but they both lose to McCain. But I find the internals rather disturbing:

   

  Fifty-three percent (53%) of New Hampshire voters have followed news stories about Obama’s former Pastor Very Closely. Another 32% have followed the story Somewhat Closely. Most (53%) say that Obama was not surprised by Wright’s views expressed to the media on Monday. Only 32% believe the Democratic frontrunner was surprised. A plurality of Democrats (47%) were willing to give Obama the benefit of the doubt on this point, but most unaffiliated voters and an overwhelming percentage of Republicans were not.

     Fifty-four percent (54%) of New Hampshire voters say it’s at least Somewhat Likely that Obama shares some of Pastor Wright’s controversial views about the United States. That figure includes 73% of Republicans, 55% of unaffiliated voters, and 36% of Democrats.

     Most voters (56%) say Obama denounced Wright because it was politically convenient. Only 33% believe he was truly outraged.

  As I've predicted, he should had disowned Wright just after the scandal broke for the 1st time. Now his denunciation is making Obama look insincere and opportunistic.

  by cordobes on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:06:19 PM PDT

  •  Yes he should have done the expedient thing

    so as to avoid looking insincere and opportunistic to you.  

    Nice.

    Thanks for your concern about this very important issue to Americans.  You should be very proud of your involvement in American public discourse.  Thank you so much on behalf of my children and all the folks here in Iowa.  We really appreciate it.  

    by Sun dog on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:10:08 PM PDT

    •  Uh?

      I was talking about the poll, not about my personal point of view. My problem is that he's looking opportunistic to a fair share of american voters, that's all.

      Chill out.

      by cordobes on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:15:33 PM PDT

      •  I'm chill

        don't worry about me.  

        by Sun dog on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:22:44 PM PDT

  •  Wow

    That's heartbreaking. Granted it's Rasmussen....

    But that is stunning. I can't believe that so many think Obama agrees with Wright. That actually makes me want to cry.

    Gosh. It's so hard to win when the odds are stacked against you like this.

    :(

    by jenontheshore on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:11:33 PM PDT

    •  If that was the case, Obama's poll numbers

      would be in the TANK (under 40%) and they are not.  

      I don't trust Rasmussen at all.

      by Drdemocrat on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:13:04 PM PDT

    •  It's supposed to make you want to cry

      That's the campaign we're up against.  That's what they're banking on.  

      Don't cry.  You backed a candidate with unusual integrity, intelligence and promise for the country.  And for some wild reason, he's actually going to win.  

      It's not easy as you said which is why it almost never happens.  The fact that it's getting loud and dissonant shouldn't actually be a surprise and you shouldn't cry because you're right and you're going to win.  

      by Sun dog on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:26:41 PM PDT

    •  I don't think the main point was that Obama

      agrees with him, I think the really troubling point is that so many people think he's being politically convenient by throwing him under the bus now and that he already was well aware of Wright's views on AIDS, etc.

      Quite frankly I have known about Jeremiah Wright for months now and it bothered me well before the first story broke.  I always wondered by Obama didn't just pick a bit more "mainstream" church.

      by ObamaManiac2008 on Fri May 02, 2008 at 12:35:41 AM PDT

      •  Me too

        And what were they thinking that this would not blow up eventually.  Rezko, Ayers are very superfluous but this has obviously turned into a major issue.  I like and support Obama but they misjudged and mishandled this really from the outset.

        by bubbajohn43 on Fri May 02, 2008 at 08:31:30 AM PDT

  •  Don't sweat the general election

    Dukakis was up 10 and Clinton was down 10 at this point in their respective races.  Wait until Labor Day to really take any general election polls very seriously.

    by CA Pol Junkie on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:42:06 PM PDT

  •  Because Hillary is always sincere

    People buying into this is literally making me ill.  

    by 57andFemale on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:53:04 PM PDT

  •  Unfortunately it's a free country

    and Reverend Wright can say whatever he wishes, especially from his own pulpit. And all of us are free to listen and to decide whether we agree in whole, in part, or not at all. Free speech is hardly a contaminant and listening to it does not connote agreement. The quote widely attributed to Voltaire, but actually written by Beatrice Hall in writing of Voltaire:

    I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it.

    has been the patriot's defense of free speech. The rush to condemn Reverend Wright and Obama by association flies in the face of of our beliefs in free speech. Fear of free speech is a weakness more likely to be found in quaking monarchists - not in free men. We should celebrate free speech and the fact that we live in a country where it is still guaranteed.

    by MagisterLudi on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:13:44 PM PDT

  •  Wright should have just kept out of sight until

    November.  But that's all water under the bridge now.

    The internals are worrying, there's no doubt about that.

    But then again, Jimmy Carter says this will all blow over...  so I trust him.

    by ObamaManiac2008 on Fri May 02, 2008 at 12:33:25 AM PDT

•  calling IN

  I made my first calls to IN women today, and my fears were largely unjustified. Nobody cursed, nobody slammed the phone.  A few people didn't want to discuss who they were voting for (or had voted for), which was fine.  But quite a few were undecided and really wanted to talk.  Their main concerns: education, health care, the economy, and whether politicians just tell you what they think you want to hear.  The gas tax gimmick was actually perfect for that one -- easy to talk about why we need the tax (bridge in St. Paul, infrastructure providing construction jobs during a downturn) and why Barack is willing to say the hard thing rather than the easy one. Only one conversation about Rev. Wright, and then she brought it up only to ask whether it would damage him too much in November. Which led to a nice conversation about all of McCain's weaknesses.
  I was careful to stay upbeat: "We've had two strong candidates, but now it's time to unite the party, and that from what I've seen of BO's campaign, he is the best person to do that," etc. No need to alienate these voters now or in the future.
  I'd love to hear from jenontheshore and others what seemed to be the strongest arguments with the IN voters you talked to, since I plan to call again before Tuesday.

  by BrooklynWeaver on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:09:05 PM PDT

  •  Whaaaat?!?

    Their main concerns: education, health care, the economy, and whether politicians just tell you what they think you want to hear

    Are you sure you were calling Indiana?  Gee wiz, I've been watching tv, reading the Times listening to radio, I'm pretty sure that wasn't Indiana you were calling there.  That's just not what I've heard.  They are very Concerned about Obama's electability being affected by various concerns involving his ability to get elected. Or something.  

    Are you sure you weren't calling the 1950's or something?  Those sound like issues that effect people and stuff.  Why would they be thinking about that?  Haven't they seen what's happening in Indiana on the teevee?  

    I'm really confused.

    .

    Thanks for your work.  Seriously.

    by Sun dog on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:14:54 PM PDT

  •  I have been calling Indiana all week

    Every time I begin to obsess, I do some phonebanking and I feel infinitely better. I didn't call today, because I didn't get the chance to, but I am committing to at least an hour per state for the next 4 days.

    What I do is hit a couple of larger points. I ask them what issues matter to them, and if they have any questions, and then I say "Well, I'm voting for him because..." I choose one particular point like:

    --I talk about universal health care (and I do point out that Hillary's plan has mandates)

    --I talk about Obama's opposing the war from the start and I tie this to the economy and all the billions we spent there that could have been spend here. (I am careful to say he opposed the war because he thought it would distract us from Afghanistan)

    --I usually talk about who he is as a person. Namely that he was a community organizer and constitutional lawyer, and that he was raised by a single mom.

    I find that ever call is different. Sometimes, it's really best to keep it short. I always refer them to the website. Sometimes they are eager to talk and then I really engage. But even if you have the shortest conversation in the world, it HAS an impact. They will remember that nice Obama volunteer once they get in the phonebook.

    by jenontheshore on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:19:45 PM PDT

    •  LOL!

      UM....

      The voting booth, is what I meant, obviously.

      LOL. I can only imagine in my brain I was thinking phone booth? And then that became phonebook? I dunno.

      by jenontheshore on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:21:29 PM PDT

    •  Thanks, Jen

      Sometimes I would hang up and wish I'd remembered to add this or that fact, so it's good to be reminded that it's enough to engage on one or two key points, share your own enthusiasm, and leave them feeling positive about the exchange. And take heart, Sun dog: I certainly didn't get the feeling that anyone was taking this decision lightly.

      by BrooklynWeaver on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:36:36 PM PDT

•  He'll open it back up when he spend a lot more

  time in the state.  I'm not worried about Oregon.

  by ourhispanicvoices on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:09:57 PM PDT

  •  work hard though!!!!!! n/t

    by ourhispanicvoices on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:10:26 PM PDT

•  Bad methodology

  If you look at the methodology you can clearly see that the screen they applied is a pro-Clinton one. For example, they say they interviewed 1600 registered voters and then made a sample of that with 600 likely voters. However, given the MASSIVE party changers here in Oregon (my county went from slight R edge to a D edge) take this with a major grain of salt. In a normal primary this poll might be true but this year we'll see MASSIVE turnout, which probably heavily benefits Obama.

  A few other problems:

  1. The youth vote will be absolutely massive here.  We already have, in the Oregon Bus Project (http://www.busproject.org) about the best youth voter turnout effort in the country (Please note that the Bus Project IS nonpartisan and has absolutely not endorsed anyone in the primary).

  2. As noted above, party switchers are on an unprecedented scale and I'm betting Obama gets 75% of them.

  3. Anyone who thinks Portland will be tied hasn't been here recently.  I have counted lord knows how many Obama signs and two Clinton signs (both next to houses of people who are long-time Clintonites out here).

  4. Turnout will be VERY high.  With vote-by-mail, I'm guessing turnout of Ds will be somewhere between 75-85% (in line with normal general election turnout).

  5. All that being said, let's make it happen Oregon.  BARACK THE VOTE!

  by skywaker9 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:10:57 PM PDT

•  A very good cross-tab

  Among the 74% who have their mind made up, Obama leads by 11%. Among the 24% who may change their mind, Clinton leads by 11%

  by badlands on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:17:26 PM PDT

•  I love how people keep freaking out.

  The polls always get closer as the race draws near. That wasn't true in some of the earlier contests because we had multiple states up for grabs and Hillary's attention was divided between those she felt "counted."

  Now that we're in the home stretch they all count and so the attention factor kicks into high gear.

  by DeanDemocrat on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:26:59 PM PDT

•  When does voting begin?

  Or has it already started?

  Thanks.

  by CeeusBeeus on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:29:40 PM PDT

  •  Saturday or Monday

    Depending on where you are you will get your ballot either Saturday or Monday.  They all get printed in Portland and mailed tomorrow from there so Salem, Portland and possibly Eugene will get them Saturday and everyone else Monday.

    by skywaker9 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:39:35 PM PDT

    •  Thanks....so the dip in the polls

      actually is something he needs to be concerned with.  I hope he comes out with an environmental speech that addresses this stupid gas tax that would speak to Oregon.  As well as speak to the logging and fishing issues (this also speaks to Californians, Washingtonians, and Alaskans.)

      by CeeusBeeus on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:29:45 PM PDT

      •  Uh no it's not

        See my post above about how f-ed up the methodology is.  

        by skywaker9 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:57:35 PM PDT

•  Obama by 18

  that's my prediction in Oregon.

  I have seen ZERO Clinton signs in Portland. The last time I heard anybody say they were for Hillary was about 2 months ago.

  by Shahryar on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:48:58 PM PDT

  •  Head up 39th between Powell and Belmont...

    I have seen ZERO Clinton signs in Portland.

    There's like 7 of them along the way, and a couple more if you head further down towards Reed.  I've seen a few up on Fremont as well, and two on NE 42nd in Hollywood.  These are just along my bus route to work.  I've also seen quite a few Hillary signs in NW, between 18th and 23rd and between Davis and Northup.

    An upper-single-digit win here in Portland and Eugene, along with slightly larger margins throughout the rest of the state (following his established pattern of doing better amongst rural voters everywhere) gives Obama a 10 or 11 point win here in Oregon.  That's all we need, and that would be huge.  The thing is to stop unrealistically pumping up expectations to the point where a (very possible) 8 or 9 point Obama win here would be turned into a media 'loss'...

    by Hardhat Democrat on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:26:45 PM PDT

•  general election polls in OH/FL good

  Obama is only down in 1 in both Florida and Ohio, and is ahead in Pennsylvania, Ohio is nice to see, but down in Florida, tie where he hasn't campaiganed is absolutely terrific

  by colb17 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:04:13 PM PDT

•  Lets hope this doesn't go on to Oregon

  No offense to any Oregonians as I think everyone's vote should count, but the sooner this is over, the better.

  by yg17 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:07:28 PM PDT

  •  I was about to post this

    No offense, you guys, but I really hope the results next week solve everything. I am really really not optimistic about it but wow I can't take it anymore.
    I am completely deflated and over all of this. I want to have some time to recuperate and then get my enthusiasm and energy back by the time the convention rolls around to beat McCain.
    If I have to go through one more month of Hillary, I think I am never going to get past my hatred of her and  since she will be on the scene for still quite some time I really hope it doesn't come to this

    by BenjaminOMeara on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:18:05 PM PDT

    •  The Solution

      Take a break!

      This primary has been emotionally exhausting, that's for damn sure. When I can't take it anymore (or every time Barack loses a state), I take a mental health break. No more Daily Kos or cable news or Colbert Report and etc--even if it kills me--for two days. That is how I survived Pennsylvania. I find that being a political junkie is not a sustainable condition, and when I rest my mind from the daily tit-for-tat, I gain a whole new level of focus and perspective.

      by jenontheshore on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:27:07 PM PDT

•  OREGON DOESN'T WORRY ME ONE

  Bit. Obama will win it by at least ten if not slightly more.

  by Voodoo king on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:29:14 PM PDT

•  I am sad that SUSA is the only polling firm doing

  anything in Oregon.  :(

  by ObamaManiac2008 on Fri May 02, 2008 at 12:29:09 AM PDT