Nov projections from the Redstate side

I find it useful from time to time to see what is going on over there.

http://www.redstate.com/...

Today in between very warm (no really) wishes for Sen. Kennedy, I found the above general election projection.

It is interesting to see that they believe McCain can pull out Ohio and Michigan.  

What would it take to keep those two states voting Democratic?

if we assume that Obama could win those states and the rest of it stays the same, then Obama wins.  If he splits them, we lose.

What else on this map is likely to change?

I think they are way too optimistic on Mississippi. Montana could go blue. Warner is likely to help Sen. Obama in Virginia.  

Thoughts?

•  I think it'll be a landslide

  I think Obama will win all the usual Democratic states, most of the swing states he's bringing into play, and a few surprises.  Can't see any other outcome aside from independents breaking massively for Democrats this year.

  Every time Obama has entered a contest and started seriously campaigning, he's gained serious numbers.  Starting a general election race leading McCain, who's got nowhere to go but down, Obama would have to be caught in a Larry Craig situation to lose.

  by Dallasdoc on Tue May 20, 2008 at 04:53:55 PM PDT

  •  I agree, but...

    ...that is because the Obama campaign has taken nothing for granted but GOP ill will and media absurdity.

    We should behave as if everything is in doubt. It will pay rewards downticket and in 2010.

    by Enterik on Tue May 20, 2008 at 05:50:59 PM PDT

    •  You are right

      The only way Obama looses is if we start talking about landslides. The POTUS election will be close. The MSM likes McCain and they could be a big factor.

      by VClib on Tue May 20, 2008 at 11:10:09 PM PDT

•  I think the issue is that so many are predicting

  the GE through a primary lens.

  I think as Barack begins to rack up a few crossover endorsements (from the likes of Colin Powell and Chuck Hagel) the GE will begin to change complexion.

  I think we cannot say what the power of the anti-Bush/McSame vote from outside of the Dem party will be at this juncture.  I think Obama will be successful in reaching out and expanding his base but we shall see.

  by ILean Left on Tue May 20, 2008 at 04:55:43 PM PDT

  •  As I read it, what that Redstate map

    represents is a pro-forma application of current tracking poll data, not necessarily the editorial opinions and beliefs of the writer.

    To ascribe any significance to a two- or three-point lead in a state tracking poll at this point in time is silly.

    The general election campaign has not really begun in earnest and, while the Dems still slug it out in primaries, McSame can comfortably sit and snipe from the sidelines. (That is, except for his near-daily gaffes.)

    I can't imagine McSame sweeping that whole block of Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana and Ohio. Not gonna happen.

    At this point, a state tracking poll macht nichts.

    by TerribleTom on Tue May 20, 2008 at 05:07:28 PM PDT

•  Hey Dave from Oregon...

  Congrats on your state's victory for Obama (yes I am jumping the gun before polls close).

  Will McCain win Ohio in November (my state)?

  Well Bush won Ohio by a fairly narrow margin in 2004 and Democrats nearly swept statewide offices in 2006 with a very popular Democratic governor, Ted Strickland - who is a Clinton supporter, but I expect to enthusiastically support our nominee, Obama in the fall (if not be his running mate).

  Michigan? Same thing - a very economically depressed state in a year when 81% of people believe the country is going in the wrong direction. I don't know how popular their Democratic governor is, but the black population of Detroit is HUGE and Detroit is probably 25% of all of Michigan's population.

  So I think Obama can win Ohio and Michigan, but obviously he cannot take that for granted.

  I think Virginia is definitely in play for Obama.

  by slw0606 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 04:59:01 PM PDT

  •  I wouldn't worry about MI

    I know what the polls look like, but remember, there hasn't been much exposure of Sen. Obama (for that matter, Sen. Clinton either) since there wasn't a primary!  Once he's up here and campaigning regularly and once people wake up to truly think how much the war is helping to ruin our economy, those numbers will change.

    It's also worth remembering that, along with your point about Detroit, the UAW negotiated election day off so there will be a lot of pissed off auto workers heading to the polls who didn't like much about what mccain was saying when he ran here in the pub primary (jobs are gone, won't ever come back so you need to be retrained. for what?  mcdonalds?). mccain is one of the worst candidates imaginable on labor issues. He won't carry MI.

    by dougymi on Tue May 20, 2008 at 05:28:52 PM PDT

  •  Strickland

    As Kos and others point out, a sitting governor or mayor is a major plus - they can field their machine, if they have one, for the gotv.

    It would be interesting to look at which states have dem and rep governors, and mayors of major cities.

    Perhaps Poblano will put this together.

    by drdave on Tue May 20, 2008 at 06:00:43 PM PDT

•  They're looking at numbers, not at McCain.

  The man is a walking trainwreck. He flipflops every 5 minutes. He's going to be tied even more tightly to Bush by the time Obama gets through. His age is a negative. And we haven't even gotten to Iraq, women's issues (which are going to be huge judging from the current media frenzy), people having to choose between paying their mortgages or medical or food bills, elderly people worried about outliving their savings, young people seeing a dimmer future, vets who put their lives on the line and are not supported (inexcusable for a POW), and the fact that he is just plain ignorant in so many ways. It darn well better be a landslide so big that they can't rig the votes!

  by TheWesternSun on Tue May 20, 2008 at 05:02:21 PM PDT

  •  it will be up to the Obama people to point this

    out, day in and day out. If not Obama himself, then the surrogates will have to point out the many varied positions McCain has taken on any given issue.

    by Dave from Oregon on Tue May 20, 2008 at 05:06:22 PM PDT

•  Obama will get bumps

  When Hillary finally concedes and then, later, at the Democratic convention.  Those bumps, plus the increasing focus that will be applied to McCain, will result in the following states moving into Obama's column.

  Florida (McCain is currently +1 in the most recent poll)
  Indiana (Obama is currently +1)
  Michigan (McCain is currently +1)
  Missouri  (McCain is currently +6)
  North Carolina (McCain is currently +3)
  Ohio  (McCain is currently +1)
  South Carolina (McCain is currently +3)
  Texas  (McCain is currently +5)
  Wisconsin  (McCain is currently +4)
  Virginia  (McCain is currently +3)

  The only state I have any doubt about among these is Missouri.  Always hard to figure them out.  Total electoral vote that would shift from McCain to Obama with these states -- 171.

  I actually think Obama has a chance to get close to 400 electoral votes.

  by LostinAustin on Tue May 20, 2008 at 05:14:15 PM PDT

  •  That's close!

    Considering the long primary and McCain not having to face his share of uncomfortable press because of it that is amazingly close.  The Republicans definitely have more to loose than gain after our primary is settled.  We KNOW Obama knows how to campaign too, and speak, and I can't imagine McCain will be half as good in the debates as Senator Clinton was.

    I am getting enthusiastic all over again!

    by get the red out on Tue May 20, 2008 at 05:51:29 PM PDT

  •  Perhaps, McCaskill can make the difference there?

    by Enterik on Tue May 20, 2008 at 05:51:56 PM PDT

•  One way to make Ohio blue...

  Support WVKO 1580 AM.

  It's the only progressive station in the state.

  In '06 Howard Dean credited progressive radio with helping turn the tide, and nowhere was that more important than in Ohio, even though there were only 3 progressive radio stations.

  Soon after Dean's observation, Clear Channel killed all three of them.

  Now there is one--new and Clear Channel free. It has made a ratings showing in it's first quarter which is impressive, but it does not have the deep pockets of the mega-herd stations, and needs support to get started.

  Check out NonStopRadiofor how to help WVKO, and other progressive stations around the country.

  by daulton on Tue May 20, 2008 at 05:56:47 PM PDT

•  Republican logic at work... and faulty as usual.

  The Red State post is headlined "Election Projection," but in fact is a survey of recent poll data, which is not a projection at all, but a "snapshot."

  That said, I would not expect McCain's lead in Wisconsin polls to hold.  More importantly, a raft of the other "pink" states on the map are definitely in play, and my personal opinion is that few of them are likely to end up in the Republican win column.

  Using current poll data to forecast the general election results before our party even has an official nominee is just plain dumb.

  by jgilhousen on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:07:03 PM PDT