I've written quite a bit about over the last few months about voting patterns in Appalachia. Beginning with Super Tuesday and then the Potomac primary, the pattern became clear: many counties of Appalachia have voted by margins of over 2 to 1, and sometimes even 9 to 1 for Hillary Clinton. It's inescapable that race is playing a factor in some voting everywhere, but that it's a much greater factor in Appalachia than anywhere else in America. Only in Appalachia has Hillary Clinton won huge margins. As I've written before, Obama does not appear to have a problem with white voters. However, Appalachia has a problem with Obama.
Last week, before the West Virginia primary, I enlisted the help of Kossack Meng Bomin to make maps that showed the counties where Obama and Clinton have posted big wins. Obama has posted big wins in overwhelmingly white counties in places across the country. Clinton has done well in many places. But her biggest margins, outside of Arkansas and a few counties in Western New York, have almost all been in the counties of Appalachia.
As was obvious to anyone who was looking at the results of the previous primaries, Clinton coasted to a huge win in West Virginia. She will again win huge tonight in Kentucky, because, as Markos showed, voters in Kentucky long ago made up their minds. Some will portray it as evidence that Obama has a problem with white voters. It won't be. Rather, it will be further evidence that Appalachia has a problem with Obama.
My fellow contributing editor Devilstower made some new maps, including the recent results from West Virginia, that demonstrate the regional concentration of Clinton's strongest appeal and Obama's weakest performances:
[Click on maps to see full size version]
Counties where Clinton won at least 50% of the vote:
Counties where Clinton won at least 60% of the vote:
Counties where Clinton won at least 70% of the vote:
Clinton will win Kentucky. But as we've known since February Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee for President.