Daily Kos

MO-Gov: Nixon (D) leads handily

Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:24:57 PM PDT

SurveyUSA. 5/16-18. Likely voters. MoE 2.5% (No trend lines)

Hulshof (R) 33
Nixon (D) 57

Steelman (R) 33
Nixon (D) 58

This is an open seat vacated by one-term Republican gubernatorial failure Matt Blunt. Jay Nixon's strength is not just good for Missouri (obviously), but has potential national implications.

The more I think about it, the best presidential picks are "chemistry" picks, those that put two nominees together who like each other and work well with each other (like Gore or Cheney). Veep nominees that attempt to compensate for a weakness only serve to highlight that weakness (like Lieberman or Bentsen). And very few veep nominees can deliver geography (like Bentsen or Edwards). But when the two candidates like each other and work well together in purpose and message, it's pretty powerful.

And on that front, while she's not my favorite veep pick (which is still Richardson), I think that Sen. Claire McCaskill would qualify brilliantly. She may be perhaps Obama's most loyal and hard-working surrogate, and she'd nicely complement Obama's message of change. And if you see them together, they are a great team.

Normally, I'd flat out oppose it, given that she'd cost us a Senate seat. But the Missouri Governor is sworn in before the President of the United States, meaning that if McCaskill was our vice presidential nominee, her replacement would be chosen by Gov. Jay Nixon.

Race tracker wiki: MO-Gov

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Tags: Missouri, MO-Gov, 2008, Jay Nixon, Kenny Hulshof, Sarah Steelman, VP, Claire McCaskill, Barack Obama (all tags) :: Previous Tag Versions

Permalink | 191 comments

  •  I hope he wins (11+ / 0-)

    I just can't get over supporting a guy named NIXON, though.

    Ugh.  I just reflexivly shudder, even though I know he's not related.

  •  You make a sound point once again, Kos! (2+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    dopper0189, WayneNight

    I suppose though it will depend on what factors Obama wants to bolster in his VP pick.  I don't think any one candidate can cover every area, but there are a number of them that can help out in multiple ways.

  •  Brilliant, Markos (11+ / 0-)

    I love this site when it gets at the nuts and bolts of politics...as opposed to just the nuts.

  •  I wish Claire (8+ / 0-)

    were more liberal on the National Security front (her support of telecom amnesty was quite disappointing.)

    But choosing Claire has a lot of appeal. It seems weird to me (as someone who just started being more active in politics) that the first politician whose campaign I worked on (Claire) could become VP only a couple of years later.

    (-7.00, -5.18)
    Hopelessly pedantic since 1963.

    by admiralh on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:30:21 PM PDT

  •  Risky (0+ / 0-)

    Hmm, they do have great chemistry together. And it would probably secure MO for us too as a bonus. It would put more focus on the Gov. race though, since GOP would view it as a package deal, the chance to hold onto a Gov. and also pick up a Senate seat (assuming O wins). But given those poll numbers, that does not seem likely.

  •  I like Richardson, too, especially if... (2+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, nanoboy

    ...he can lay off the grab-ass and maybe go on a diet.

    I hadn't thought about McCaskill and don't know that much about her, but the fact that she's a woman would deprive Hillary supporters of the ability to do a gender-based sulk, and Missouri is a key swing state.

    •  Selecting McCaskill could also anger those HRC (1+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      trinite

      supporters who will ask: Why not Hillary?

    •  I wasn't goinna say it, but you're probably right (3+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, cyncynical, txvoodoo

      From all I heard, the Republicans have a hefty dossier in the waiting documenting that there tendency, and I don't mean the one involving weight.  They'd be overjoyed to use it.

      That is, really, my only reservation about Richardson.  That and the fact I'd hate to lose such an excellent Dem. Governor.  The "chemistry" factor with Richardson is by all accounts excellent--I recall a very sincere interview a while back with Richardson where he talked about how BO gave him a side whisper to help him focus again during a debate when he'd forgotten what question he'd been asked.  Richardson talked about what a unique and human gesture that was, and how it so impressively transcended politics.

      •  I'm concerned about that, too, (0+ / 0-)

        and I'm surprised that more Kossians aren't -- maybe just because it perhaps should not make a difference. But all those stories plus the ones about his more-than-volatile temper with a tendency to verbally brutalize the underlings makes me wonder about his suitability to be the veep candidate.

        "A class of experts is inevitably so removed from common interests as to become a class with private interests and private knowledge." -- John Dewey

        by Vico on Wed May 21, 2008 at 03:32:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  so why would Obama want someone who (0+ / 0-)

        can't even keep focused at a debate on his ticket? Who functioned so poorly at all his debate showings? Who wants Supreme Court Justices like Whizzer White – because he played football and had no clue to timing and White's position on Roe?

        Kos, everyone: GET OFF the Richardson kick. He is on the take from everyone. He is unalterably opposed to any health care plan that does not include the insurance companies. He is funded by insurance corps, pharma, oil, nuclear, real estate, and all the corps to whom he sold pieces of the state.

        He is DLC to the core and was going to run a right leaning "centrist" campaign – recall all his early statements about being the "Democratic Governor who CUT taxes" but when he went to 1st yearlyKos and saw all those 'Liberal Activists' he flipped into liberal hero mode and after safely being reelected, started taking any Leftist position he could think up. Instant Liberal.  

        How do you think he could raise $16.5 million for reelection as governor against almost no opposition without being for sale. This state has fewer than 2 million voters. And he couldn't even bring along a pretty good candidate for CD-1 who had been AG for 2 terms. CD-1 has a majority of Democratic registered voters.

        Richardson does NOT DRAW THE HISPANIC VOTE despite being three quarters Mexican; he is too much the exclusive Prep school, New England Academy upper class, hungry pol of no certain principles.  

        Why do you think he dropped out immediately BEFORE NV where he had been campaigning and sending supporters since Fall '07? Because, despite being the most heavily Hispanic electorate, he was polling in single digits and would have proven his lack of appeal to Hispanic voters.

        And his appeal in the Senate?

        Referring to Richardson's refusal to testify last week, Byrd said, "You've waited and shown contempt of Congress that borders on supreme arrogance."

        Speaking directly to Richardson, a one-time congressman and former Ambassador to the United Nations, Byrd said, "You had a bright and brilliant career, but you will never again receive the support of the U.S. Senate for any office you seek. You have squandered your treasure."

        Richardson, who at times looked stunned by the tone taken by many committee members, sought to defend himself -- arguing that he wanted to have "all the facts" in hand before making a congressional appearance. He added that he had made vast changes in the security culture at the department and in the nation's weapons laboratories, and had put off a good many longtime employees as a consequence.

        "I've been excoriated, but if you go into the scientific and academic community, I am driving scientists away." He also said he has been accused of racism in the Wen Ho Lee case, and has had to battle members of own party who saw regular polygraph tests for employees as a violation of civil rights.

        Those in NM who want him on the ticket for VP think it'll get him out of NM sooner, a much to be desired side effect.

        sam

        Bush and McCain and their Social Security Privatization Plan.

        by samddobermann on Thu May 22, 2008 at 01:43:42 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  SUSA also did general election matchups in MO (2+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    cyncynical, Eugenian

    Obama trailed by 3, Clinton led by 2.

    The main difference, as in almost all of these polls now, is that Democratic white women support Clinton much stronger than Obama.

    Once the primary passes and he consolidates the base, he should be quite competitive in a lot of the swing states (MO & NC from polls today)

    "They're trying to fool you. They're trying to scare you. And they're not telling you the truth." Obama '08

    by bawbie on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:30:38 PM PDT

    •  I know some people who work (2+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      aimeeinkc, cyncynical

      at the Jay Nixon office here in St. Louis.

      One in particular is a hard-core Hillary supporter (fits the demographic perfectly) who has nothing good to say about Barack or Michelle Obama. She's a hard-core Dem, so I'm sure she'll be voting for Barack (she may not admit it now), but I can't see her being happy about it.

      (-7.00, -5.18)
      Hopelessly pedantic since 1963.

      by admiralh on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:43:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  McCaskill? Yeah, maybe. (2+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    nanoboy, cyncynical

    I mean, nobody rings to me as the obvious hands-down no-brainer for VP.  My issue with Claire is that I'd like the VP not to be another not-even-one-term-yet senator.

    I'd prefer someone whose governmental skills are impeccable, even at a state level (which is why Richardson would be good) or a very small set of people who haven't been serving in elective office but have pretty thoroughly vetted credentials in other ways (Wesley Clark comes to mind).

    I really don't envy John McCain's chore of picking a VP, since it really has to be someone he can sell to the US as very possibly needing to assume the POTUS during his tenure.  Regardless of ideology, I don't even see any Republicans with the credentials for that showing up who aren't fatally flawed in other ways.

    •  I've never understood the love affair with Clark. (7+ / 0-)

      He proved himself to be a weak campaigner and his waffling on the war was most unimpressive.

      I'm not sure what he brings to the ticket beside "former military."

      •  He wasn't that weak of a campaigner. (1+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        Odysseus

        He won in Oklahoma, even though it had turned into Kerry v. Edwards.

        Also the man is damn impressive in person.
        DAMN impressive.

        He's also gotten a lot better with the campaigning.

      •  He may not have great stage charisma (0+ / 0-)

        but you watch him smack down those knobshines at Fox a few times and you start to think maybe he doesn't need it. Anymore the ability to shut down the tv smack talk is almost more important than campaign savvy. I'm thrilled though that we now have a lot of democrats that are showing great spine in front of the cameras: Dodd, Biden, Dean, Webb, Clarke, McCaskill, Kerry, Kennedy -- this is probably the first tier and there are a lot of other really good ones as well.

        "Pardon me, I thought you were a trout stream"

        by frankzappatista on Wed May 21, 2008 at 03:00:40 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Plus he chose the wrong horse this go around (0+ / 0-)

        I think most HRC supporters are going to have an uphill battle getting a job in the Obama administration.

        Maybe that is wishful thinking but I hope there is SOME payback for the kitchen sink...

        "It's better to have a bleeding heart than none at all." --- Robert Elisberg

        by JanF on Wed May 21, 2008 at 06:36:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  In my recent US News & World Report... (0+ / 0-)

      it said Obama had been giving Clark a "once over" to look at him for his VP.

      Of course, this is very early. I'm sure he is looking over 20+ others at the same time.

      "The only thing I would trust Dick Cheney on is if I had a dead hooker in my hotel room." --Jon Stewart

      by DemBrock on Wed May 21, 2008 at 05:25:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  McCaskill's own words: (19+ / 0-)

    "If I were asked, I would ask some mental health professionals to visit Barack Obama. I just think Sen. Obama is way too smart to pick me. I’m not a good pick, and he’s smarter than that. That’s why he’s going to make such a good president."

    The Hill

  •  Cant be said enough (4+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    DelRPCV, aimeeinkc, bobbyd100, Junah

    "Chemistry" picks are really the best. Another person who fits into the category is Tim Kaine. He has some of the same qualities of McCaskill, hardworking, loyal(was the first politician outside of Illinois to endorse Obama, I believe), similar backgrounds.

  •  Ever thought of applying your "machine" theory (2+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    bawbie, jj32

    to the VP pick?  

    Johnson in 1960 works because he has the Texas machine.  George Bush in 1980 for similar reasons.  

    Which keeps bringing me back to Strickland...

    •  And likewise... (3+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, Neutron, filby

      those who don't have machines don't have pull, which explains Bentsen's failure in Texas and Edwards' failure in North Carolina.  On the other hand, Quayle, while bringing nothing else, brought with him the Christian Coalition in 1992.

      And I can't let a post about the VP slot without asking my unanswered question again -- someone give me one reason why nobody's talking about Bob Graham.  Has he gone senile or something?  He's a former governor and Senator of Florida, voted against the Iraq war, and sat on the Foreign Relations committee.  He would add that old statesmen quality to the ticket, the steady hand that would guide the youngster.  (Yes, what they thought Cheney would do.  Ugh.)

      •  Just call me Nobody. (4+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        Odysseus, Vico, nclefty, aimeeinkc

        Because I bring it up almost every single time.

        Graham would be perfect.

        Not in Washington currently, against the Iraq war, foreign policy powerhouse, super popular in Florida and with seniors (two areas O is weak in).

        Reformer, especially with electoral reform... which is important.

        He understands the working man because he's literally done their jobs.

        Bob Graham's campaign trademark was to work a full, eight-hour day at various jobs which represented Florida's constituents. He began his Workdays in 1974, teaching a semester of civics at Miami Carol City Senior High School in Miami while serving in the Florida Senate. At that time, Bob Graham was on the Education Committee. After a speech, M. Sue Riley, an English teacher at Carol City, approached Bob Graham and said, "The only problem with members of the Education Committee is nobody has any experience in education." Bob Graham was taken aback at that assertion and asked, "Well, what can I do about that?" A few months later, Ms. Riley contacted Senator Graham with a proposal to teach the next semester of civics. Following that teaching experience, he performed 99 additional workdays just in time for his 1986 successful campaign for U.S. Senate. Since then, he has completed 386 workdays, more than a year's worth of days spent laboring side-by-side with his constituents. Graham has continued doing workdays throughout his tenure as governor and in the United States Senate. His jobs have included service as a police officer, busboy, railroad engineer, construction worker, fisherman, garbageman, factory worker, and teacher. On No. 365, he checked in customers, handled baggage and helped serve passengers on US Airways.

        He doesn't even have to serve more then the one term.

        Barack runs with a new standard bearer in 2012.

        You could do a HELL of a lot worse then Bob Graham.

        He should ABSOLUTELY be on the shortlist.

        •  Okay, good... (0+ / 0-)

          I've been afraid I was missing something, like he'd been in the hospital, or gone senile, or was now working as a lobbyist for Wal-Mart, or somehow toxic.

          In my political memory, the only time the VP selection has been someone who was on all the chattering lists was John Edwards.  Quayle, Gore, Kemp, Cheney, and Lieberman all came out of nowhere, with regards to news reports.  (Ferraro and Bentsen were just too far back for me to remember whether there was chatter about them initially.)  So maybe the fact that Graham isn't being talked about is a good sign.

    •  Ew no Strickland (1+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      nclefty

      He's not even popular in Ohio any more. Trust me, I live here.

  •  Brilliant! (0+ / 0-)

    "It's the Supreme Court, Stupid!"

    by Kestrel on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:31:48 PM PDT

  •  agreed...but (0+ / 0-)

    I'd still like someone from the executive side (governer)...but she'd maybe help heal some of the gender-based1 primary battle scars.  I'm with you all the way on the chemistry thing...spot on!

    •  Richardson... (1+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      cyncynical

      as kos points out, is a top choice.  He just makes too much sense.

      Pros:

      Governor
      NM, a key state, and no Senate seat to give up.

      Serious Foreign Policy cred
      He even negotiates with dictators!

      Latino
      I think you reinforce the change message (similar to the pick of Gore in '92), while just about locking up the Southwest and putting Texas in play.  If my in-laws are any indication, older Latino voters who aren't so sure about Obama would be rapturous at the first Latino VP.

      Chemistry
      It's pretty obvious these guys like and respect each other.

      Cons:

      Campaign Gaffes
      Ran a so-so campaign this year and makes a few gaffes.  Less important in the VP than the top job, though.

      Vetting
      The rumor mill has several items (groping, etc.) which would need to be vetted, but not insurmountable.

      No military background
      Webb or Clark would be good here, but I think this is less important...again the double down on change concept.  And also, go after the voters you can win.  Working-class whites in WV are hopeless...Southwestern Latinos are very winnable.

      "President Obama will be the most liberal President of our lifetime."

      by rashomon on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:45:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Richardson is too dirty. Trust me or (0+ / 0-)

        look up some of my detailed posts from when he was running.

        He is dedicated to insurance corps on health care issues. He is bought and paid for. He is DLC to the core and was a for shit secretary of Energy.

        As far as foreign policy experience he has little. He was as HE said "bagman to dicators." He only negotiated with scum. He goes down real well with them. But he is a klutz at it.

        He dropped out right before NV because he was polling single digits in the most Hispanic electorate around.

        Feh.

        Bush and McCain and their Social Security Privatization Plan.

        by samddobermann on Fri May 23, 2008 at 12:27:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I LOVE Claire McCaskill (3+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    aimeeinkc, cosette, cyncynical

    Love her. She has been one of his best surrogates overall and his best female surrogate by far. She's still very new in the senate, though, and I don't know anything about her life before that. Plus, I don't think it'll work to have two sitting senators on the same ticket.

    I wish she were the governor of Missouri. Then she'd be perfect.

    "This union may never be perfect, but generation after generation has shown that it can always be perfected." - Barack Obama (3.18.08)

    by lapis on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:32:15 PM PDT

  •  A McCaskill bid (1+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    drewshaw

    Would have been the only way I didn't support Obama.  I love her.  Not in a creepy stalker way, but anytime I see her talk I wish I lived in Missouri.  I have said over and over again if I got to pick Obama's Veep it would be McCaskill.  I don't get that pick, and I doubt it happens...but it would make me very happy!

    "Security and opportunity; compassion and prosperity aren't liberal values or conservative values - they're American values." Barack Obama, 5-6-08

    by greeninca on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:33:14 PM PDT

  •  Interesting analysis. (0+ / 0-)

    I'm wondering is anyone can tell me the chemistry angle on Kennedy/Johnson, or Carter/Mondale.  

    I like the idea of McCaskill. She's "change-y", and that's the dominant message we're going to need to use.

    Either you want change, and are willing to roll the dice and take a chance, or you're more happy settling for the way things are now.

    McCain is a Chode.

    by dnamj on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:33:31 PM PDT

  •  It's gotta be Webb (0+ / 0-)

    He's a military man. He's been the head of the Navy, which shows experience in planning military affairs. He can help continue to transcend party since he was a Republican.

    To Kos's point, I don't know how he gets along with Obama -- obviously -- but if they find they have a chemistry then this is the obvious choice.

  •  *Flashback!* (0+ / 0-)

    I totally did a double take

    You Sacrifice the Thing You Love the Most. I Love My Guitar - Jimi Hendrix

    by jds1978 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:33:48 PM PDT

  •  McCaskill got her seat by the skin of her teeth.. (3+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    aimeeinkc, jj32, brein

    There was a lot of trash talk about McCaskill's background during her election. Probably only just that, but, while I think that Claire is an excellent Obama surrogate, I'd want to be sure that his VEEP pick is as squeaky clean as his own resume.

    "Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it." -- Mark Twain

    by Riddle on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:33:49 PM PDT

  •  Sometimes the angels are in the details! n/t (0+ / 0-)

  •  I met Claire -- she's great (6+ / 0-)

    My wife and I marched in a Labor Day parade for her in Springfield in '06.  She was sitting up in a vintage Mustang and we were walking right behind her.  At one point, she turns and says just to the two of us with the biggest smile on her face: "I'm sorry you have to look at my fat ass all the way to the park!"

    Dulce bellum inexpertis [War is sweet only to those who have no experience of it].

    by Fatherflot on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:34:49 PM PDT

  •  I have thought for a while that McCaskill (4+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    maryb2004, chumley, Luetta, cyncynical

    ... would be a great pick. She is incredibly good with media while skewering their inane talking points. I have seen her turn back attacks with a smile. Most of the time, the blabbermouths don't know what hit them. She can be tough while sounding as smooth as silk. I think she has been Obama's best surrogate.

    I know folks are clamoring for Webb, but the one problem Webb has is tat he is a bit of a loose cannon.

    As for Richardson, I think he'd make a better Cabinet secretary than VP candidate. He is not a terrific campaigner and he always seems to have this need to be liked. That makes him a weak VP pick where you want someone tough.

    And that's why I like about McCaskill. She can be slipping the knife in while you're thinking she's patting you on the back.

    •  You hit the nail on the head with Claire (2+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      aimeeinkc, cyncynical

      She can be tough while sounding as smooth as silk.

      She is one tough cookie but always looks cheerful.

      She's been a great surrogate for him.  Which kind of, almost, but not really makes up for her sucky votes on FISA.

      But her main prior experience was being state auditor.   They'll get slammed on the "no experience" front.

  •  Not sure about McCaskill (0+ / 0-)

    She's only been a senator for two years.  I like her, and think she'd be a great candidate in a few years.  The Rethugs would hit us on inexperience.  I would be more inclined to go with Richardson.  He's guarantee Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.

  •  Love McCaskill, but not so sure (0+ / 0-)

    I think Obama needs someone who hasn't taken federal lobbyist money (aka a governor or Edwards). So that means I'm expecting him to pick a governor.

    McCaskill otherwise is a good choice, but I have never been a fan of the Senator-Senator matchup. Shes about one of the only 5 I would tolerate (others being Dorgan, Conrad, Brown, or Dodd etc).

    "Lets change Washington with two people who already are in Washington making the laws that govern Washington" doesn't fly too well with me.

    I'm hoping for Gov. Kaine of Virginia, but its not my choice so who cares.

  •  Hrmpf... (0+ / 0-)

    I dunno. I think the whole National Security thing will rear it's ugly head again. The "war hero" McCain will drub Obama over the head with this.

    I'd prefer someone with some foreign policy or military credentials, myself. Although, I love the idea of McCaskill, Sibelieus or Napolitano.

    What in the Hell Was I Thinking? OBAMA '08

    by HillaryIsMyHomegirl on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:36:03 PM PDT

  •  Can't deliver geographically... (0+ / 0-)

    unless you're LBJ in '60 and you have Duval county in your pocket via the Duke of Duval(along with 6,000 dead people!).

    Little history.

    •  Quoi? (0+ / 0-)

      Please explain. Did LBJ rely on vote fraud to deliver Texas? The horror! Oh, right, just remembered Chicago in 1960...

      2 parties 1 cup.